Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Omolloy]

DeKalb country breaks it’s November turnout according to CNN...

[Mike88]

Wait, so are the exit polls for simply the ED vote, or for all of the vote? If it's the former, Perdue and Loeffler are toast.

From CNN website:

The CNN exit poll was conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of CNN, ABC News, CBS News and NBC News. Interviews were completed with 5,260 voters in one of three ways: In-person on Election Day at 39 polling places across Georgia, in-person at 25 early voting locations around the state or by telephone for voters who cast ballots by mail or in-person during early voting. Results for the full sample of voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, it is larger for subgroups.

https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/georgia-senate-runoff-election-results/index.html

[SLA8]

i don't get the point in being down or parading before the numbers are released. It's only a few more hours, just let's wait until we have firm data so we can all make a judgment.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

52%-42% say contain versus rebuild economy.

[Brittain33]

Remember that exit polls are so error-prone that the 29% could be 26% or 33%. (I mean, it's not 33%, but you get it.)

[Alben Barkley]

This is going to suck. And by suck I mean really suck

Can we start a poorly aging quote train for you like the one Woodbury had? You really deserve it.

We get it. I was relentless about Georgia in November and was wrong by a hair.

This is much much much different ballgame.

Name a (reasonable) number... Venmo wager.

Tonight’s not happening. The cult will prevail, evil over decency wins tonight I’m afraid

You used this exact same kind of apocalyptic language in November, annoying the hell out of the entire forum with your bizarre, relentless, extremely intense and irrational fixation on Georgia. That made you more than just “wrong by a hair.” If you simply said “I still think Trump edges it out,” then you’d have been wrong by a hair. Instead you went on and on AND ON about how there was absolutely no chance whatsoever for Dems to win Georgia, even WELL after the math made it clear that was the most likely outcome. That made you extremely, comically wrong. And if you had any shame or sense of self-awareness/embarrassment, you would refrain from ever commenting on Georgia again, frankly.

[pppolitics]

To those who were wondering about the exit poll:

The CNN exit poll was conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of CNN, ABC News, CBS News and NBC News. Interviews were completed with 5,260 voters in one of three ways: In-person on Election Day at 39 polling places across Georgia, in-person at 25 early voting locations around the state or by telephone for voters who cast ballots by mail or in-person during early voting. Results for the full sample of voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, it is larger for subgroups.

[Baki]

The hunch at the moment is that Republicans win and it's not close.
Just a hunch.

[wbrocks67]

The exit polls are always everything (early, mail, in person, election day, etc.)

Meanwhile, interesting that the CNN 2020 November exit poll ended up being R+4 (38-34-28) while this is D+3 (39-36-25)

White/black was 61-29-7 in November too, so these are all very similar, and will depend on how they change

[SLA8]

It's just a psychological way to lower expectations probably. No one here has a crystal ball. In any case, this race is always going to be a longer shot for the Dems considering the Nov 2020 numbers in the Senate races, but it's obviously going to be somewhat close so I don't trust anyone who is cocky about these results in either direction.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

52%-42% say contain versus rebuild economy.

What’s your prediction, out of curiosity? You always have your finger on the pulse of these things.

Having spent the last 2.5 weeks in isolation and just coming off a covid infection myself, following this election wasn't exactly my highest priority. So I don't really have a good feel for it anymore.

[wbrocks67]

52%-42% say contain versus rebuild economy.

Interesting. Was 51-44 in Nov

[MplsDem]

The exit polls are always everything (early, mail, in person, election day, etc.)

Meanwhile, interesting that the CNN 2020 November exit poll ended up being R+4 (38-34-28) while this is D+3 (39-36-25)

White/black was 61-29-7 in November too, so these are all very similar, and will depend on how they change

I think today's numbers were R+3, 39R-36D-25I?

[VAR]

Holy shìt. My mom came into my room to bring me a plate of chicken nuggets and I literally screamed at her and hit the plate of chicken nuggets out of her hand. She started yelling and swearing at me and I slammed the door on her. I'm so distressed right now I don't know what to do. I didn't mean to do that to my mom but I'm literally in shock from the results tonight. I feel like I'm going to explode. Why the fûcking fùck is Perdue losing? This can't be happening. I'm having a fücking breakdown. I don't want to believe the world is so corrupt. I want a future to believe in. I want Perdue to continue to be senator and fix this broken country. I cannot fúcking deal with this right now. It wasn't supposed to be like this, I thought he was polling well in Georgia? This is so fûcked.

Bagel, I promised wbrocks67 we'd stop with the Perdue memes.

[pantsaregood]

This is going to suck. And by suck I mean really suck

Can we start a poorly aging quote train for you like the one Woodbury had? You really deserve it.

We get it. I was relentless about Georgia in November and was wrong by a hair.

This is much much much different ballgame.

Name a (reasonable) number... Venmo wager.

Tonight’s not happening. The cult will prevail, evil over decency wins tonight I’m afraid

No. You're being ridiculous because you constantly moved the goalposts on November 3, and you will continue to do so now.

"Biden doesn't have a chance."
"Give it up guys, Georgia isn't happening."

Margin continues to narrow, remaining vote is largely favorable to Biden:

"Just stop."
"It isn't happening."

Margin drops into <20,000 range:

"He might get close, but it can't happen."

Your argument is not informed. It is solely based on your goofy beliefs about how Georgia "should" vote. While all data points to this race being a toss up, my gut instinct (that I will not assert as fact) is that Loeffler and Perdue will pull out narrow wins.

Also, don't qualify being wrong (after you were annoyingly vocal about being ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN) about the Presidential election with "by a hair." You insisted that Biden was going to get blown out in Georgia - that's not "wrong by a hair" any more than the Biden+17 Wisconsin poll was "wrong by a hair."

[Omolloy]

The exit polls are always everything (early, mail, in person, election day, etc.)

Meanwhile, interesting that the CNN 2020 November exit poll ended up being R+4 (38-34-28) while this is D+3 (39-36-25)

White/black was 61-29-7 in November too, so these are all very similar, and will depend on how they change

I believe you have the today’s numbers reversed, it’s 39R-36D, which is still a 1 point improvement over November (although completely statistically insignificant)

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The concerning number is the age number for Democrats.

FWIW age is usually one of the most inaccurate parts of exit polls, if you compare to what exit polls say the age of the electorate was as compared to the actual ages of voters on their voter registration once voter files get updated. Usually though exit polls overestimate the # of young voters, or at least they have in the past.

[wbrocks67]

You all are right, I meant R+3.

So so far, before it's continued to be updated, the electorate is R+3 compared to R+4.

[MillennialModerate]

The hunch at the moment is that Republicans win and it's not close.
Just a hunch.

[wbrocks67]

Did anyone post the weird statement from Perdue or Loeffler begging voters to vote in the last hours? Seems like a weird thing to do if you think you're winning? But who knows.

[MT Treasurer]

52%-42% say contain versus rebuild economy.

What’s your prediction, out of curiosity? You always have your finger on the pulse of these things.

Having spent the last 2.5 weeks in isolation and just coming off a covid infection myself, following this election wasn't exactly my highest priority. So I don't really have a good feel for it anymore.

It’s fine, thanks for your response.

Sorry to hear about your covid infection — I wish you a speedy recovery.

[Ljube]

The exit poll is consistent with a 50.5% - 49.5% Republican victory, according to my calculation, based on November results.
The result is close and the remaining 2 hours of voting could change things.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ok at this point this thread is full of people either setting their expectations way too low or high based on nothing of substance. This will remain a tossup till polls close at 7:00, though I personally believe the GOP are slight favorites

[roxas11]

Did anyone post the weird statement from Perdue or Loeffler begging voters to vote in the last hours? Seems like a weird thing to do if you think you're winning? But who knows.

I dont think its weird at all
they think the race is going to be close and that is why they are making sure to get thier voters out

if they thought it was going to be blow out they would not be talking like that.....

[pantsaregood]

The hunch at the moment is that Republicans win and it's not close.
Just a hunch.

Welcome to the ignore list.

Hint: Being "right" by chance is not the same thing as having an informed opinion. If I predict that Ossoff and Warnock somehow win by double digits and it actually happens, it doesn't make my prediction any less poorly informed based on available data.