Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[pppolitics]

isnt there a good chance we wont even know who won the senate races tommorow?

WILL WE KNOW THE WINNER ON ELECTION NIGHT?

Just like in November, it’s very possible Americans will go to bed without knowing who won. All indicators point to the likelihood of very tight margins in both races.

Media organizations, including The Associated Press, often declare winners on election night based on the results that are in, voter surveys and other political data.

But in a close race, more of the vote may need to be counted before the AP can call a winner.

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-johnny-isakson-georgia-general-elections-elections-eea3b662d4470c6f02ffd500d8aaaff8

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rain in Atlanta

Weather.com said that there is only a 5% chance of rain in Atlanta tomorrow.

Accuweather.com said 2%.

It's supposed to be sunny to partly cloudy, cool and windy (high 54F / low 30F / winds 10-15 mph).

[Real Texan Politics]

On a scale of 1-10, how laughable is the bold prediction I'm about to make?

Both dems win, but Ossoff overperforms Warnock.

[SCNCmod]

Rain in Atlanta

Weather.com said that there is only a 5% chance of rain in Atlanta tomorrow.

Accuweather.com said 2%.

It's supposed to be sunny to partly cloudy, cool and windy (high 54F / low 30F / winds 10-15 mph).

GeorgiaModerate- Ancedotally based on ppl you know, do you (and others on here from GA), think Dems will have stronger than expected turnout numbers tomorrow for the Election Day vote?

[Xing]

Rain in Atlanta

I think you meant to say “Rain in NoGA, Ossoff/Warnock are finished.”

[SCNCmod]

On a scale of 1-10, how laughable is the bold prediction I'm about to make?

Both dems win, but Ossoff overperforms Warnock.

I think the level of support Perdue receives is one of the biggest unknowns.  So, imo, if Perdue support is weaker than many have expected- it seems very plausible that Ossoff outperforms Warnock.

[MATTROSE94]

On a scale of 1-10, how laughable is the bold prediction I'm about to make?

Both dems win, but Ossoff overperforms Warnock.

lol. That ain’t happening. David Perdue is the undisputed king of the Atlanta, Savanna, Augusta, and Macon suburbs and will curb stomp Jon Ossoff by 10%. Raphael Warnock, on the other hand, will defeat weak candidate Qelly LOLfeller by 6%.

/s

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Final prediction:

Perdue (R) wins the regular senate race by +0.8 points
Loeffler (R) wins the special senate race by +0.7 points

The margins are so close these are low confidence, and I wouldn't bet any money on it.  I give Republicans a roughly 60% chance of winning both races.

Hard to believe this is tomorrow!! Will be fun to watch.

This is about the outcome I’m expecting as well, though I’d be ecstatic to be proven wrong. It’s really all up to how many of those rurals show up tomorrow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rain in Atlanta

Weather.com said that there is only a 5% chance of rain in Atlanta tomorrow.

Accuweather.com said 2%.

It's supposed to be sunny to partly cloudy, cool and windy (high 54F / low 30F / winds 10-15 mph).

GeorgiaModerate- Ancedotally based on ppl you know, do you (and others on here from GA), think Dems will have stronger than expected turnout numbers tomorrow for the Election Day vote?

I can't really judge it, as all the definite Democrat voters I know voted absentee in both the GE and runoff.

[wbrocks67]

A) there will be exit polls tomorrow, so that may give us a look at who will win

B) can we please stop with this god awful perdue meme. it's really annoying and not funny.

[Adam Griffin]

On a scale of 1-10, how laughable is the bold prediction I'm about to make?

Both dems win, but Ossoff overperforms Warnock.

Warnock will almost certainly do better in the metro areas, while history would suggest Ossoff will probably do better everywhere else (people still don't grasp that being a white Democrat in GA benefits rural margins compared to being a black Democrat: yes, even in 2020).

The big question in such a scenario is if/how much more Ossoff does better in rural areas relative to Warnock's performance in metro areas; obviously the metro areas are a much larger share of the state (~70%), but if Warnock only does 1-2 points better there while Ossoff does 3-4 points better or more in rural areas, then Ossoff outperforming Warnock is possible.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/anna_bahr/status/1346225129349550081

[VAR]

A) there will be exit polls tomorrow, so that may give us a look at who will win

B) can we please stop with this god awful perdue meme. it's really annoying and not funny.

We'll stop if you get an avatar. You have made 8k posts on this site but still don't have an avatar, which is... annoying. You just go to "profile" then to "Forum Profile Information" and select your political party and state. It's not hard.

[Buzz]

A) there will be exit polls tomorrow, so that may give us a look at who will win

B) can we please stop with this god awful perdue meme. it's really annoying and not funny.

This clown still looks at exit polls lolz

[wbrocks67]

A) there will be exit polls tomorrow, so that may give us a look at who will win

B) can we please stop with this god awful perdue meme. it's really annoying and not funny.

We'll stop if you get an avatar. You have made 8k posts on this site but still don't have an avatar, which is... annoying. You just go to "profile" then to "Forum Profile Information" and select your political party and state. It's not hard.

don't know why you care so much but... sure, done.

[wbrocks67]

Loeffler joining Perdue in going full Trump. Guess they believe that's their only way to win now. Guess her own election should not be voided though but Bidens should?

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1346240368115929088

[VAR]

A) there will be exit polls tomorrow, so that may give us a look at who will win

B) can we please stop with this god awful perdue meme. it's really annoying and not funny.

We'll stop if you get an avatar. You have made 8k posts on this site but still don't have an avatar, which is... annoying. You just go to "profile" then to "Forum Profile Information" and select your political party and state. It's not hard.

don't know why you care so much but... sure, done.

Great!

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1346246560066244610

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Feels like this entire election year can be summed up as "...but I hope I'm proven wrong"

The overloading of our mail system with flyers/letters, etc from this runoff election which is mercifully coming to an end...

And ramp up again next year.

Welcome to swing-state Georgia!

[walleye26]

My prediction: 51-49 Perdue, 50.2-49.8 Loeffler.
Honestly, I would love to see Ossoff and Warnock crush them, but 2018-Gov vibes keep creeping up again and again.

[Adam Griffin]

The frustrating thing about all of this campaign mail and phone/text barrage is just the sheer amount of waste that is occurring.

To put it into perspective: more money has poured into GA for these runoffs than the Obama campaign spent nationally on its entire 2012 re-election bid. Let that sink in for a second.

I voted over a month ago. Within a few days, all of the glossy Warnock & Ossoff mailers (from the campaigns themselves) ceased. Thank God they at least have some common sense.

However, all of these PACs, outside groups and even the state party continue to pepper me with mail. Anybody with a voter file (and all of these groups certainly have them) can tell within 24-48 hours that a particular individual has voted.

I get that there is a certain lag for setting up mail campaigns - and even more a lag given USPS holiday delays compounding the situation - but this is inexcusable. Within 10 days max of voting (and that's with the aforementioned USPS lag), no individual should still be receiving campaign literature in the mail.

It's obvious that a bunch of groups spending and allocating resources here either have no idea what they're doing or are just so flush with cash that they can't be bothered with filtering their voter file universes on a daily basis to exclude people who have already voted. There's probably more financial and logistical waste occurring in these runoffs than occurred across all of the competitive Senate races combined in 2020. And you know what? I can't complain in every facet: my county party has raised basically as much via ActBlue over the past 6 weeks from random out-of-state contributors as we would raise from local donors in an average year.

Somebody who voted 5 weeks ago shouldn't be getting 10 mailers, 10 texts and 5 phone calls per day telling them to vote.

[QAnonKelly]

My dad was going on today about how black farmers in South Georgia are going to make Perdue win handily.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My dad was going on today about how black farmers in South Georgia are going to make Perdue win handily.

I'll bite.  Why?

[forza nocta]

My dad was going on today about how black farmers in South Georgia are going to make Perdue win handily.

I'll bite.  Why?

Maybe his dad saw this tweet

https://twitter.com/ewerickson/status/1345889577899356162?s=21

[ProgressiveModerate]

My dad was going on today about how black farmers in South Georgia are going to make Perdue win handily.

I'll bite.  Why?

Maybe his dad saw this tweet

https://twitter.com/ewerickson/status/1345889577899356162?s=21

What evidence do we actually have that Perdue did well with black farmers in the South?