Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Ossoff and Warnock both won, who would be the senior senator?

I think it's alphabetical, with Ossoff having the seniority in this case.

[Stuart98]

If Ossoff and Warnock both won, who would be the senior senator?

Ossoff will because of his last name, per seniority tiebreakers. (This is the final tiebreaker of 7)

[Skill and Chance]

Suppose the 2 GA seats are 500 and 1500 vote Dem wins after a recount and the election certification is challenged in the Senate.  A couple of questions:

1. Perdue's seat remains vacant until the dispute is resolved, that much is clear.  But what about Loeffler?  If she is still in the senate, do senate rules allow her to vote for herself in the election challenge?

2. Can the VP break a tie on an election challenge, or does it require 51 votes outright to fill the seat?

3.  If the answer to #2 is yes and it was a tie (say Romney and Murkowski vote to seat them), could the senate seat Perdue and Loeffler next week but then reopen the challenge and seat Ossoff and Warnock on Jan 21?  

[MillennialModerate]

Let's review what a 51-50 senate can do, realistically

1) tax increases for the rich through reconciliation, and other budget stuff through reconciliation

2) judges and cabinet confirmations

3) infrastructure

4) criminal justice, MAYBE

What isn't happening

1) public option

2) filibuster repeal

3) gun control

4) green new deal, or any big enviro bill

5) immigration

6) 15 dollar minimum wage


Basically, whatever dems couldn't pass between 2010 and 2014 will not be done in 2021 and 2022 either.

I’ll play along with the fantasy that Dems win...,

What about PR statehood ?

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

[Catalunya]

Let's review what a 51-50 senate can do, realistically

1) tax increases for the rich through reconciliation, and other budget stuff through reconciliation

2) judges and cabinet confirmations

3) infrastructure

4) criminal justice, MAYBE

What isn't happening

1) public option

2) filibuster repeal

3) gun control

4) green new deal, or any big enviro bill

5) immigration

6) 15 dollar minimum wage


Basically, whatever dems couldn't pass between 2010 and 2014 will not be done in 2021 and 2022 either.

How about Statehood for Puerto Rico and DC? I think that will have more ramifications for the balance of power than any of those.

[Skill and Chance]

If Ossoff and Warnock both won, who would be the senior senator?

Ossoff will because of his last name, per seniority tiebreakers. (This is the final tiebreaker of 7)

I was wondering about this as neither of them have held elected office.  Rather surprised they don't use age!  If one seat was disputed and the other was not, the candidate winning uncontroversially could be seated earlier and have seniority, right?

It would be hilarious if 78-year-old Ossoff assumes the presidency in 2065.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Let's review what a 51-50 senate can do, realistically

1) tax increases for the rich through reconciliation, and other budget stuff through reconciliation

2) judges and cabinet confirmations

3) infrastructure

4) criminal justice, MAYBE

What isn't happening

1) public option

2) filibuster repeal

3) gun control

4) green new deal, or any big enviro bill

5) immigration

6) 15 dollar minimum wage


Basically, whatever dems couldn't pass between 2010 and 2014 will not be done in 2021 and 2022 either.

I’ll play along with the fantasy that Dems win...,

What about PR statehood ?

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

Why?

Also, I don't think you're allowed to talk about how Dems can't win Georgia, after your hilariously bad and annoying takes on election night/subsequent days.

[brucejoel99]

What isn't happening

2) filibuster repeal

I see somebody didn't read & digest what they were told about a certain Senator from West Virginia earlier today, now did they? Again:

If Democrats gain control of the Senate, then the filibuster will be eliminated & they'll do all of these things. If not, the only thing that happens is a new justice being confirmed to replace Breyer (thereby not changing the ideological balance of the Court) & maybe an infrastructure package. I'm sure there'll be another COVID stimulus package in any event, but whether or not it includes $2K checks is entirely dependent on Senate control.

manchin will not vote to abolish the filibuster.

Yeah, you keep telling yourself that, buddy.

joe manchin isn't some "pretend moderate". He is a legit blue dog, even center right according to some pundits.

Why are you so confident he will vote to abolish filibuster?

Ah, I see you've fallen for his marketing too. That just goes to show you how effective it is. What you need to understand about Joe Manchin is that he has perfected the art of cultivating this image of him being a moderate Blue Dog who provides a check on the Democrats' liberal tendencies. If he hadn't perfected this art by now, then he obviously wouldn't have been re-elected at the federal level from a state as (non-Atlas) red federally as West Virginia. But that's all it is: an image.

At the end of day, he's still a reliable Democrat through-&-through. When his vote has been needed, he has always voted the party-line. Not to mention, he's recently been voting the party-line even when his vote isn't needed (e.g. convicting Trump, immediately opposing ACB, etc.), certainly a lot more than he ever would've prior to his most recent re-election campaign. It's almost like he has zero f**ks left to give because he knows that this is his last Senate term, so it's not like he has to actually worry about running in West Virginia ever again. Suffice it to say that he'll most assuredly evolve on eliminating the filibuster after Ossoff/Warnock win just like every other "institutionalist" before him has.

[Bumaye]

https://twitter.com/JerryDunleavy/status/1345773077997694977

So the question is if she was campaigning with Nazis or if she just sometimes hangs out with Nazis and takes selfies with them having a good time? Yeah, sorry bro, but both are kinda strong arguments against her in my book...

[brucejoel99]

I’ll play along with the fantasy that Dems win...,

What about PR statehood ?

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

Why?

Presumably some fear-mongering about how the 5 conservatives will never allow the Democrats to pass anything ever again.

[rhg2052]

Let's review what a 51-50 senate can do, realistically

1) tax increases for the rich through reconciliation, and other budget stuff through reconciliation

2) judges and cabinet confirmations

3) infrastructure

4) criminal justice, MAYBE

What isn't happening

1) public option

2) filibuster repeal

3) gun control

4) green new deal, or any big enviro bill

5) immigration

6) 15 dollar minimum wage


Basically, whatever dems couldn't pass between 2010 and 2014 will not be done in 2021 and 2022 either.

I’ll play along with the fantasy that Dems win...,

What about PR statehood ?

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

DC would only be struck down as unconstitutional if they eliminate the Federal District entirely, which is not the proposal.

[MillennialModerate]

I’ll play along with the fantasy that Dems win...,

What about PR statehood ?

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

Why?

Presumably some fear-mongering about how the 5 conservatives will never allow the Democrats to pass anything ever again.

Quoting from an article on the matter:

The Founding Fathers wrote it into the Constitution. Article I, Section 8 provides explicitly for a national capital that would not be part of a state nor treated as a state, but rather a unique enclave under the exclusive authority of Congress — a neutral “district” in which representatives of all the states could meet on an equal footing to conduct the nation’s business.

[Stuart98]

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

Only if Democrats are stupid in how they go about it. There's a pretty simple way to do it constitutionally:
1. Contract the capital district down to the national Mall area, where nobody lives.
2. Admit the remainder of the old capital district as a new state.
3. Assign the electors of the new (unpopulated) capital district to the winner of the national popular vote.

[DrScholl]

I'm sorry, but does Loeffler's campaign outfits irritate anyone else?

They are extremely tacky and they make her clearly come off as a rich person trying to be rural or working class.

[Catalunya]

Let's review what a 51-50 senate can do, realistically

1) tax increases for the rich through reconciliation, and other budget stuff through reconciliation

2) judges and cabinet confirmations

3) infrastructure

4) criminal justice, MAYBE

What isn't happening

1) public option

2) filibuster repeal

3) gun control

4) green new deal, or any big enviro bill

5) immigration

6) 15 dollar minimum wage


Basically, whatever dems couldn't pass between 2010 and 2014 will not be done in 2021 and 2022 either.

I’ll play along with the fantasy that Dems win...,

What about PR statehood ?

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

DC would only be struck down as unconstitutional if they eliminate the Federal District entirely, which is not the proposal.

It would be hilarious if DC was stripped of everything except for the federal buildings, yet still had 3 EC votes because of the 23rd Amendment. Who would even be able to vote in such elections?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Let's review what a 51-50 senate can do, realistically

1) tax increases for the rich through reconciliation, and other budget stuff through reconciliation

2) judges and cabinet confirmations

3) infrastructure

4) criminal justice, MAYBE

What isn't happening

1) public option

2) filibuster repeal

3) gun control

4) green new deal, or any big enviro bill

5) immigration

6) 15 dollar minimum wage


Basically, whatever dems couldn't pass between 2010 and 2014 will not be done in 2021 and 2022 either.

I’ll play along with the fantasy that Dems win...,

What about PR statehood ?

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

DC would only be struck down as unconstitutional if they eliminate the Federal District entirely, which is not the proposal.

It would be hilarious if DC was stripped of everything except for the federal buildings, yet still had 3 EC votes because of the 23rd Amendment. Who would even be able to vote in such elections?

Those buildings themselves should get suffrage.  They're smarter than the average Trump supporter.

[Skill and Chance]

Let's review what a 51-50 senate can do, realistically

1) tax increases for the rich through reconciliation, and other budget stuff through reconciliation

2) judges and cabinet confirmations

3) infrastructure

4) criminal justice, MAYBE

What isn't happening

1) public option

2) filibuster repeal

3) gun control

4) green new deal, or any big enviro bill

5) immigration

6) 15 dollar minimum wage


Basically, whatever dems couldn't pass between 2010 and 2014 will not be done in 2021 and 2022 either.

I’ll play along with the fantasy that Dems win...,

What about PR statehood ?

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

DC would only be struck down as unconstitutional if they eliminate the Federal District entirely, which is not the proposal.

It would be hilarious if DC was stripped of everything except for the federal buildings, yet still had 3 EC votes because of the 23rd Amendment. Who would even be able to vote in such elections?

The president and the VP at least, right?  It would have flipped the outcome in 2000!  

[MillennialModerate]

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

Only if Democrats are stupid in how they go about it. There's a pretty simple way to do it constitutionally:
1. Contract the capital district down to the national Mall area, where nobody lives.
2. Admit the remainder of the old capital district as a new state.
3. Assign the electors of the new (unpopulated) capital district to the winner of the national popular vote.

That elector scheme is dangerous... all’s it would take is a few residents to give those electors to the GOP. I think the less shady and more fair thing is to just shift those 3 electors to the new state (the GOP would agree to this otherwise they’d be 6 DC electors)

[rhg2052]

Let's review what a 51-50 senate can do, realistically

1) tax increases for the rich through reconciliation, and other budget stuff through reconciliation

2) judges and cabinet confirmations

3) infrastructure

4) criminal justice, MAYBE

What isn't happening

1) public option

2) filibuster repeal

3) gun control

4) green new deal, or any big enviro bill

5) immigration

6) 15 dollar minimum wage


Basically, whatever dems couldn't pass between 2010 and 2014 will not be done in 2021 and 2022 either.

I’ll play along with the fantasy that Dems win...,

What about PR statehood ?

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

DC would only be struck down as unconstitutional if they eliminate the Federal District entirely, which is not the proposal.

It would be hilarious if DC was stripped of everything except for the federal buildings, yet still had 3 EC votes because of the 23rd Amendment. Who would even be able to vote in such elections?

The president and the VP at least, right?  It would have flipped the outcome in 2000!  

Nope, the VP residence would be in the new state. Just the First Family. Do any staff live in the White House? Though I think that if statehood were to happen, an amendment repealing the 23rd would go through pretty easily.

[Skill and Chance]

Let's review what a 51-50 senate can do, realistically

1) tax increases for the rich through reconciliation, and other budget stuff through reconciliation

2) judges and cabinet confirmations

3) infrastructure

4) criminal justice, MAYBE

What isn't happening

1) public option

2) filibuster repeal

3) gun control

4) green new deal, or any big enviro bill

5) immigration

6) 15 dollar minimum wage


Basically, whatever dems couldn't pass between 2010 and 2014 will not be done in 2021 and 2022 either.

I’ll play along with the fantasy that Dems win...,

What about PR statehood ?

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

DC would only be struck down as unconstitutional if they eliminate the Federal District entirely, which is not the proposal.

It would be hilarious if DC was stripped of everything except for the federal buildings, yet still had 3 EC votes because of the 23rd Amendment. Who would even be able to vote in such elections?

The president and the VP at least, right?  It would have flipped the outcome in 2000!  

Nope, the VP residence would be in the new state. Just the First Family. Though I think that if statehood were to happen, an amendment repealing the 23rd would go through pretty easily.

Well, then future presidents in this system had better be faithful to their spouses!  LOL

[brucejoel99]

Suppose the 2 GA seats are 500 and 1500 vote Dem wins after a recount and the election certification is challenged in the Senate.  A couple of questions:

1. Perdue's seat remains vacant until the dispute is resolved, that much is clear.  But what about Loeffler?  If she is still in the senate, do senate rules allow her to vote for herself in the election challenge?

Convention would dictate no, but there's no explicit rule stating as much, no.

2. Can the VP break a tie on an election challenge, or does it require 51 votes outright to fill the seat?

The VP is only precluded from breaking a tie in a contingent vice presidential election (& even then, it's up for constitutional debate). In any & all other votes, the VP is empowered to break a tie.

3.  If the answer to #2 is yes and it was a tie (say Romney and Murkowski vote to seat them), could the senate seat Perdue and Loeffler next week but then reopen the challenge and seat Ossoff and Warnock on Jan 21?  

Only if they had been seated on a provisional basis, as Miller-Meeks currently is in the House. Otherwise, once a Senator is seated, they remain a Senator until their term expires, they're expelled, or they either resign or pass away.

What about PR statehood ?

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

DC would only be struck down as unconstitutional if they eliminate the Federal District entirely, which is not the proposal.

It would be hilarious if DC was stripped of everything except for the federal buildings, yet still had 3 EC votes because of the 23rd Amendment. Who would even be able to vote in such elections?

The president and the VP at least, right?  It would have flipped the outcome in 2000! 

Nope, the VP residence would be in the new state. Just the First Family. Though I think that if statehood were to happen, an amendment repealing the 23rd would go through pretty easily.

Well, then future presidents in this system had better be faithful to their spouses!  LOL

Not to get too technical, but I've never heard of a President & their family not remaining legal residents of their home states. For legal purposes, the district would actually be unpopulated.

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

Only if Democrats are stupid in how they go about it. There's a pretty simple way to do it constitutionally:

1. Contract the capital district down to the national Mall area, where nobody lives.
2. Admit the remainder of the old capital district as a new state.
3. Assign the electors of the new (unpopulated) capital district to the winner of the national popular vote.

That elector scheme is dangerous... all’s it would take is a few residents to give those electors to the GOP. I think the less shady and more fair thing is to just shift those 3 electors to the new state (the GOP would agree to this otherwise they’d be 6 DC electors)

Please re-read what you just responded to. Stuart98's proposed elector scheme doesn't provide a mechanism for "a few residents to give those electors to" somebody.

[rhg2052]

Suppose the 2 GA seats are 500 and 1500 vote Dem wins after a recount and the election certification is challenged in the Senate.  A couple of questions:

1. Perdue's seat remains vacant until the dispute is resolved, that much is clear.  But what about Loeffler?  If she is still in the senate, do senate rules allow her to vote for herself in the election challenge?

Convention would dictate no, but there's no explicit rule stating as much, no.

2. Can the VP break a tie on an election challenge, or does it require 51 votes outright to fill the seat?

The VP is only precluded from breaking a tie in a contingent vice presidential election (& even then, it's up for constitutional debate). In any & all other votes, the VP is empowered to break a tie.

3.  If the answer to #2 is yes and it was a tie (say Romney and Murkowski vote to seat them), could the senate seat Perdue and Loeffler next week but then reopen the challenge and seat Ossoff and Warnock on Jan 21?  

Only if they had been seated on a provisional basis, as Miller-Meeks currently is in the House. Otherwise, once a Senator is seated, they remain a Senator until their term expires, they're expelled, or they either resign or pass away.

What about PR statehood ?

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

DC would only be struck down as unconstitutional if they eliminate the Federal District entirely, which is not the proposal.

It would be hilarious if DC was stripped of everything except for the federal buildings, yet still had 3 EC votes because of the 23rd Amendment. Who would even be able to vote in such elections?

The president and the VP at least, right?  It would have flipped the outcome in 2000! 

Nope, the VP residence would be in the new state. Just the First Family. Though I think that if statehood were to happen, an amendment repealing the 23rd would go through pretty easily.

Well, then future presidents in this system had better be faithful to their spouses!  LOL

Not to get too technical, but I've never heard of a President & their family not remaining legal residents of their home states. For legal purposes, the district would actually be unpopulated.

Fair, but that seems like more of a matter of tradition than law. If a President wanted to, they could register in DC.

[Virginiá]

Only if Democrats are stupid in how they go about it. There's a pretty simple way to do it constitutionally:
1. Contract the capital district down to the national Mall area, where nobody lives.
2. Admit the remainder of the old capital district as a new state.
3. Assign the electors of the new (unpopulated) capital district to the winner of the national popular vote.

In theory I agree and was pretty bullish about this under the previous SCOTUS, but sometimes I wonder how this court will react. One constant theme of the conservative wing in the Roberts era is that they almost always rule in favor of Republicans when it comes to issues affecting their viability in elections. The few times they don't generally involve schemes or arguments so badly bungled by the conservative side that they have no choice but to shoot it down, and even then, usually narrowly. So with the threat of 2 solidly Democratic Senators padding the Democratic Party's majority... I don't know.

[pppolitics]

Is Loeffler attending the Trump rally tomorrow?

[brucejoel99]

Is Loeffler attending the Trump rally tomorrow?

Yes. Perdue too, if he's somehow permitted to leave quarantine by then.