Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Adam Griffin]

Trump won this county 70-29

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1346125171132915712

And it's literally the 2 most GOP precincts that are closed; only about 10% of the county's November vote, though:

[Cyrusman]

Can't wait til our new Senate Majority this week and Biden confirmation as Prez, we are on the verge of a Trifecta that we should of won in Nov

it would be the smallest working trifecta in american history.

for your own sanity, please temper your expectations about what you will accomplish.

barack obama had 60 (60!) dem senators in 2009 and 2010 and there was still drama and roadbumps.

you will not be passing divisive ideological big ticket items with a 5 person house majority and a 51-50 senate. you just won't.

you will get judges, infrastructure, and maybe certain tax increases.

in fact, the 5 vote majority in the house may be even more of an issue than joe manchin. Not hard at all to find 5 house dems who represent wealthy business districts who will oppose tax increases.  

a double digit number of republicans opposed the TCJA because it repealed SALT deductions.

why wouldn't at least a few house dems from wealthy districts be spooked about pissing off some constituents?

Your right, it would be a tight trifecta

But this isn't 2009

The stimulus in 2009 was like venom to GOP. This year the GOP led congress passed 4 stimulus bills, all larger than the one in 2009. With stuff like checks and welfare which would have been unthinkable ten years ago.

And I think every senate Democrat, even Manchin, is on record to support a public option unlike 2009.

I think tax increases are unlikely, Biden doesn't want to stall growth. But I expect budgets with lots of education, welfare, and infrastructure funding like what they should have done back in 2009.

Those items you mentioned are plausible, yes

I think what he meant was your not seeing crazy things like making DC, and Puerto Rico states as well as packing the court, or making sure changes to the immigration system. Items that are not moderate items by any means and would require getting rid of the filibuster

How is Puerto Rican statehood a radical or "crazy" thing?

Because the only reason they want it to be a state is that it adds 2 senators that will always be safe D no matter what.
It’s one of those things that would only be passed to benefit one parties control on the senate not to actually help every day Americans

[Pericles]

To be fair, Obama had a 1 vote majority because of the filibuster. Democrats will use reconciliation more, and might weaken or even eliminate the filibuster, so they could effectively have the same majority as Obama in 2009. Plus, Supreme Court vacancies are already decided based on a simple majority, so far that has hurt Democrats but it might now benefit them.

[swf541]

Can't wait til our new Senate Majority this week and Biden confirmation as Prez, we are on the verge of a Trifecta that we should of won in Nov

it would be the smallest working trifecta in american history.

for your own sanity, please temper your expectations about what you will accomplish.

barack obama had 60 (60!) dem senators in 2009 and 2010 and there was still drama and roadbumps.

you will not be passing divisive ideological big ticket items with a 5 person house majority and a 51-50 senate. you just won't.

you will get judges, infrastructure, and maybe certain tax increases.

in fact, the 5 vote majority in the house may be even more of an issue than joe manchin. Not hard at all to find 5 house dems who represent wealthy business districts who will oppose tax increases.  

a double digit number of republicans opposed the TCJA because it repealed SALT deductions.

why wouldn't at least a few house dems from wealthy districts be spooked about pissing off some constituents?

Your right, it would be a tight trifecta

But this isn't 2009

The stimulus in 2009 was like venom to GOP. This year the GOP led congress passed 4 stimulus bills, all larger than the one in 2009. With stuff like checks and welfare which would have been unthinkable ten years ago.

And I think every senate Democrat, even Manchin, is on record to support a public option unlike 2009.

I think tax increases are unlikely, Biden doesn't want to stall growth. But I expect budgets with lots of education, welfare, and infrastructure funding like what they should have done back in 2009.

Those items you mentioned are plausible, yes

I think what he meant was your not seeing crazy things like making DC, and Puerto Rico states as well as packing the court, or making sure changes to the immigration system. Items that are not moderate items by any means and would require getting rid of the filibuster

How is Puerto Rican statehood a radical or "crazy" thing?

Because the only reason they want it to be a state is that it adds 2 senators that will always be safe D no matter what.
It’s one of those things that would only be passed to benefit one parties control on the senate not to actually help every day Americans

Thats not a legitimate reason to deny a territory that has voted for statehood, esp one that is larger then many states in terms of population.

[brucejoel99]

Can't wait til our new Senate Majority this week and Biden confirmation as Prez, we are on the verge of a Trifecta that we should of won in Nov

it would be the smallest working trifecta in american history.

for your own sanity, please temper your expectations about what you will accomplish.

barack obama had 60 (60!) dem senators in 2009 and 2010 and there was still drama and roadbumps.

you will not be passing divisive ideological big ticket items with a 5 person house majority and a 51-50 senate. you just won't.

you will get judges, infrastructure, and maybe certain tax increases.

in fact, the 5 vote majority in the house may be even more of an issue than joe manchin. Not hard at all to find 5 house dems who represent wealthy business districts who will oppose tax increases.  

a double digit number of republicans opposed the TCJA because it repealed SALT deductions.

why wouldn't at least a few house dems from wealthy districts be spooked about pissing off some constituents?

Your right, it would be a tight trifecta

But this isn't 2009

The stimulus in 2009 was like venom to GOP. This year the GOP led congress passed 4 stimulus bills, all larger than the one in 2009. With stuff like checks and welfare which would have been unthinkable ten years ago.

And I think every senate Democrat, even Manchin, is on record to support a public option unlike 2009.

I think tax increases are unlikely, Biden doesn't want to stall growth. But I expect budgets with lots of education, welfare, and infrastructure funding like what they should have done back in 2009.

Those items you mentioned are plausible, yes

I think what he meant was your not seeing crazy things like making DC, and Puerto Rico states as well as packing the court, or making sure changes to the immigration system. Items that are not moderate items by any means and would require getting rid of the filibuster

How is Puerto Rican statehood a radical or "crazy" thing?

Because the only reason they want it to be a state is that it adds 2 senators that will always be safe D no matter what.
It’s one of those things that would only be passed to benefit one parties control on the senate not to actually help every day Americans

Thats not a legitimate reason to deny a territory that has voted for statehood, esp one that is larger then many states in terms of population.

And it's not even a reason based in logic, either, given that PR has some pretty conservative tendencies &, oh yeah, literally has a Republican representative right now. So much for "always be[ing] safe D no matter what," though.

[swf541]

Can't wait til our new Senate Majority this week and Biden confirmation as Prez, we are on the verge of a Trifecta that we should of won in Nov

it would be the smallest working trifecta in american history.

for your own sanity, please temper your expectations about what you will accomplish.

barack obama had 60 (60!) dem senators in 2009 and 2010 and there was still drama and roadbumps.

you will not be passing divisive ideological big ticket items with a 5 person house majority and a 51-50 senate. you just won't.

you will get judges, infrastructure, and maybe certain tax increases.

in fact, the 5 vote majority in the house may be even more of an issue than joe manchin. Not hard at all to find 5 house dems who represent wealthy business districts who will oppose tax increases.  

a double digit number of republicans opposed the TCJA because it repealed SALT deductions.

why wouldn't at least a few house dems from wealthy districts be spooked about pissing off some constituents?

Your right, it would be a tight trifecta

But this isn't 2009

The stimulus in 2009 was like venom to GOP. This year the GOP led congress passed 4 stimulus bills, all larger than the one in 2009. With stuff like checks and welfare which would have been unthinkable ten years ago.

And I think every senate Democrat, even Manchin, is on record to support a public option unlike 2009.

I think tax increases are unlikely, Biden doesn't want to stall growth. But I expect budgets with lots of education, welfare, and infrastructure funding like what they should have done back in 2009.

Those items you mentioned are plausible, yes

I think what he meant was your not seeing crazy things like making DC, and Puerto Rico states as well as packing the court, or making sure changes to the immigration system. Items that are not moderate items by any means and would require getting rid of the filibuster

How is Puerto Rican statehood a radical or "crazy" thing?

Because the only reason they want it to be a state is that it adds 2 senators that will always be safe D no matter what.
It’s one of those things that would only be passed to benefit one parties control on the senate not to actually help every day Americans

Thats not a legitimate reason to deny a territory that has voted for statehood, esp one that is larger then many states in terms of population.

And it's not even a reason based in logic, either, given that PR has some pretty conservative tendencies &, oh yeah, literally has a Republican representative right now. So much for "always be[ing] safe D no matter what," though.

Very good point as well

[QAnonKelly]

Mail count was 12 today.

[pppolitics]

The Case For Republicans In Georgia vs. The Case For Democrats

Nathaniel: The case for Democrats

As mentioned, Ossoff and Warnock each lead in our polling average by about 2 percentage points. To be sure, those numbers still point to an election that could go either way, but if you had to choose a favorite based on them, you’d have to pick the Democrats. I know polling had an off year in 2020, but the reality is that polls are still our best tool for forecasting elections, and it’s really hard, if not impossible, to predict which direction any polling error will run. Plus, while it’s true that polling of the 2020 election overall wasn’t very accurate, polls of Georgia were actually pretty good: FiveThirtyEight’s final polling average of the presidential race in the Peach State was just 1 point off the final margin.

It’s not just the polling, though: The fundraising numbers look even better for Democrats. From Oct. 15 to Dec. 16, Ossoff raised $106.8 million and Warnock raised $103.4 million. Not only is that more than Perdue’s $68.1 million and Loeffler’s $64.0 million, but it’s also more than any Senate candidate had ever raised in a single quarter before (and Oct. 15-Dec. 16 is only two months, not three!).

[...]

Geoffrey: The case for Republicans

Republicans may be slightly behind in the polls, but we should be cautious about reading too much into these surveys as it’s hard to say the slim Democratic edge is all that meaningful. Polls have routinely disagreed over who is in the lead and nearly every survey has fallen within the margin of error. What’s more, there just haven’t been that many high quality polls — just two of the 16 firms that have surveyed Georgia since November have a FiveThirtyEight pollster rating that is higher than a B. This is unfortunate, but not surprising given many pollsters are gun-shy after polling misses in November. Simply put, a small polling error in the GOP’s direction wouldn’t be that surprising and furthermore, it would be enough to give Loeffler and Perdue the advantage.

Republicans also trail in fundraising, but here, too, it’s unclear whether Democrats really have an advantage. First, both Loeffler and Perdue have still raised plenty of moolah, and studies find that in situations where both campaigns are well-funded and neither side has a real ad-buy advantage, their efforts tend to cancel each other out. Second, much of the money fueling these campaigns is from out of state. This is true for the Republicans’ campaigns, but it’s especially true for the Democrats’, meaning the mountains of cash pouring in doesn’t tell us all that much about Georgia voter preferences. As we saw in November, strong fundraising numbers for Democratic Senate nominees were largely a smoke screen — many fell short despite significantly outraising their GOP opponents. Granted, some of these races were in states far redder than Georgia, but this was also true in Maine, a state Biden carried, and North Carolina, a state Trump narrowly carried.

[...]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-case-for-republicans-in-georgia-vs-the-case-for-democrats/

[Podgy the Bear]

Mail count was 12 today.

14 for me!   

[pppolitics]

Mail count was 12 today.

14 for me!   

What does that means?

[Podgy the Bear]

Mail count was 12 today.

14 for me!   

What does that means?

The overloading of our mail system with flyers/letters, etc from this runoff election which is mercifully coming to an end...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mail count was 12 today.

14 for me!   

Only 6 for me.  They're tapering off.

[Podgy the Bear]

Mail count was 12 today.

14 for me!   

Only 6 for me.  They're tapering off.

We have been running high numbers probably because our voting family of 3 is split politically.  Fortunately from our family, the good guys win on this runoff 2:1.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden is speaking at a rally for Warnock and Ossoff in Atlanta:

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1346212750620585986

[pppolitics]

Biden is speaking at a rally for Warnock and Ossoff in Atlanta:

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1346212750620585986

538 doesn't think that the argument necessary help Democrats

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-debate-over-2000-stimulus-checks-help-democrats-in-georgia/

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden is speaking at a rally for Warnock and Ossoff in Atlanta:

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1346212750620585986

538 doesn't think that the argument necessary help Democrats

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-debate-over-2000-stimulus-checks-help-democrats-in-georgia/

It'll probably be close to a net wash, but I really can't see how it helps the GOP.

[DabbingSanta]

Final prediction:

Perdue (R) wins the regular senate race by +0.8 points
Loeffler (R) wins the special senate race by +0.7 points

The margins are so close these are low confidence, and I wouldn't bet any money on it.  I give Republicans a roughly 60% chance of winning both races.

Hard to believe this is tomorrow!! Will be fun to watch.

[pppolitics]

Since we have so many Georgians here in this thread, is anyone able to provide on-the-ground coverage tomorrow?

[Matty]

Rain in Atlanta

[pppolitics]

Rain in Atlanta

Weather.com said that there is only a 5% chance of rain in Atlanta tomorrow.

Accuweather.com said 2%.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

isnt there a good chance we wont even know who won the senate races tommorow?

[tosk]

isnt there a good chance we wont even know who won the senate races tommorow?

yes. it's gonna be close, so I'd say it will be a day or two at least.

[Roll Roons]

isnt there a good chance we wont even know who won the senate races tommorow?

It may not be called, but we'll probably still have a good idea of who the winner will be by midnight.

[ProgressiveModerate]

isnt there a good chance we wont even know who won the senate races tommorow?

I would say there’s a 50% chance we “know” but only a 10% chance the media calls it

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1344846289427599362

This is great.  The irony of truly fake news (which Republicans politicians have been complicit in promoting) possibly causing R's to end up losing control of the Senate- would be a perfect ending to the 2020 election rollercoaster.