Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1346240234304937984

[Brittain33]

My dad was going on today about how black farmers in South Georgia are going to make Perdue win handily.

I'll bite.  Why?

Maybe his dad saw this tweet

https://twitter.com/ewerickson/status/1345889577899356162?s=21

What evidence do we actually have that Perdue did well with black farmers in the South?

If this is true, it should show up in county results relative to Biden.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I had to do it:


The Donald went down to Georgia
He was lookin' for an election to steal
He was in a bind 'cause he was a lil’ behind
And he was willin' to make a deal
When he came across this young man
Certifyin' on a vote and playin' it not
And the Donald jumped up on a hickory stump
And said, "Boy, let me tell you what"
"I guess you didn't know it, but I'm a Republican, too
And if you'd care to take a deal, I'll make a good one with you
Now you play a pretty good fraud, boy, but give the Donald his due
I'll bet a primary of red against your soul
'Cause I think I'm better than you"
The boy said, "My name's Bradford, and it might be a sin
But I won’t take your debt, you're gonna regret
'Cause I am the fairest that's ever been
Bradford, certify your vote and play your people not
'Cause Hell's broke loose in Georgia and the Donald deals it hard
And if you let Biden win, you get this shiny dem award
But if you let him lose, the Donald gets your soul
The Donald opened up his case and he said, "I'll start this show"
And bullshît flew from his big fat lips as he fired up his hole
And he pulled the case out from his ass and it made an evil hiss
And his band of demons joined in, and it sounded somethin' like this:
(Instrumental support courtesy of: Sidney Powell, Rudy Giuliani, and Melissa Carone)
When the Donald finished
Bradford said, "Well, you’re pretty shîtty ol' son
Now sit down in your chair back where
While I record and share your words, every last one"
"Biden on the Ballot", run, boys, run
The Donald’s in the house of the risin' sun
Jojo on the ballot pickin' up your votes
Greens, on the ballot? No, child, no
The Donald bowed his head because he finally knew that he'd been beat
And he laid the art of the deal on the ground at Bradford’s feet
Bradford said, "Donald, just come on back if you ever wanna try again
I done told you once, you son of a bitch
I'm the fairest that's ever been" he said
"Biden on the Ballot", run, boys, run
The Donald’s in the house of the risin' sun
Jojo on the ballot pickin' up your votes
Greens, on the ballot? No, child, no

[GeorgiaModerate]

I had to do it:


The Donald went down to Georgia
He was lookin' for an election to steal
He was in a bind 'cause he was a lil’ behind
And he was willin' to make a deal
When he came across this young man
Certifyin' on a vote and playin' it not
And the Donald jumped up on a hickory stump
And said, "Boy, let me tell you what"
"I guess you didn't know it, but I'm a Republican, too
And if you'd care to take a deal, I'll make a good one with you
Now you play a pretty good fraud, boy, but give the Donald his due
I'll bet a primary of red against your soul
'Cause I think I'm better than you"
The boy said, "My name's Bradford, and it might be a sin
But I won’t take your debt, you're gonna regret
'Cause I am the fairest that's ever been
Bradford, certify your vote and play your people not
'Cause Hell's broke loose in Georgia and the Donald deals it hard
And if you let Biden win, you get this shiny dem award
But if you let him lose, the Donald gets your soul
The Donald opened up his case and he said, "I'll start this show"
And bullshît flew from his big fat lips as he fired up his hole
And he pulled the case out from his ass and it made a evil hiss
And his band of demons joined in, and it sounded somethin' like this:
(Instrumental support courtesy of: Sidney Powell, Rudy Giuliani, and Melissa Carone)
When the Donald finished
Bradford said, "Well, you’re pretty shîtty ol' son
Now sit down in your chair back where
While I record and share your words, every last one"
"Biden on the Ballot", run, boys, run
The Donald’s in the house of the risin' sun
Jojo on the ballot pickin' up your votes
Greens, on the ballot? No, child, no
The Donald bowed his head because he finally knew that he'd been beat
And he laid the art of the deal on the ground at Bradford’s feet
Bradford said, "Donald, just come on back if you ever wanna try again
I done told you once, you son of a bitch
I'm the fairest that's ever been" he said
"Biden on the Ballot", run, boys, run
The Donald’s in the house of the risin' sun
Jojo on the ballot pickin' up your votes
Greens, on the ballot? No, child, no

*lays a golden Recommend at Bagel's feet*

[ProgressiveModerate]

Somehow, mentally, I feel like Warnock - Perdue split is inevitable, even though my brain knows that isn't true.

[Adam Griffin]

Supposedly there are more than 20k people waiting for Trump's rally at the Dalton airport. Ugh...we already have the highest COVID rates in the state and this is just gonna add fuel to the fire.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1346246560066244610

Yeah, this screams of desperation for that last-minute vote from Trump's most-crazed fans. Makes sense, too: she held off on saying this during the early voting period since that leans more towards people who haven't completely lost their minds & actually realize there's a pandemic (a group which includes moderates who nevertheless delude themselves into somehow believing that everything is the fault of "both sides" so we need a "check on Biden"). Most Republican voters (& especially the QAnon-inclined types) are gonna be voting tomorrow, if at all (assuming they actually cast their vote & aren't inclined to sit it out thanks to Lin Wood & Trump), so she comes out in support of this now without having to risk losing the support of those who've already voted for her & may regret it with this news.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My dad was going on today about how black farmers in South Georgia are going to make Perdue win handily.

I'll bite.  Why?

Maybe his dad saw this tweet

https://twitter.com/ewerickson/status/1345889577899356162?s=21

What evidence do we actually have that Perdue did well with black farmers in the South?

If this is true, it should show up in county results relative to Biden.

Here, I made this a few weeks ago. You can see that corner of SW GA is even redder than Atlanta suburbs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Supposedly there are more than 20k people waiting for Trump's rally at the Dalton airport. Ugh...we already have the highest COVID rates in the state and this is just gonna add fuel to the fire.

The most surprising part of this quote to me is the fact that Dalton actually has an airport.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1346256792855203841

[Rookie Yinzer]

I was on the phone hustling last minute to make sure everyone I know votes and got three family members to commit to vote tomorrow:

One registered in 2018, but has never voted.
The other voted in 2016 and that's it.
One has only voted in presidentials and never in a runoff.

If we win tomorrow, it is going to be so overwhelming.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Sorry for the 3rd post, but does anyone know if we're getting an exit poll on Tuesday?

The NBC results page would suggest so:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/georgia-senate-runoff-results

Oh nice. Excited for that one.

Sorry if this was asked before, but what is the order in which votes are counted again? I forget what the trajectory was in Nov (besides Biden increasing towards the end)

Generally in person to early to absentee, and more urban counties tend to take a lot longer to count; the perfect formula for a pretty extreme Republican counting bias.

ah okay, so the initial totals will likely be at least somewhat GOP. though i guess we can always compare to how the first results were back in Nov too to see how it's going

The initial totals will be waaaaay more than somewhat GOP.  It's like this in every election in Georgia in recent memory...Rs jump out to a huge, 30+ point lead early on, and it really doesn't narrow significantly until about 90% is reported.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Sorry for the 3rd post, but does anyone know if we're getting an exit poll on Tuesday?

The NBC results page would suggest so:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/georgia-senate-runoff-results

Oh nice. Excited for that one.

Sorry if this was asked before, but what is the order in which votes are counted again? I forget what the trajectory was in Nov (besides Biden increasing towards the end)

Generally in person to early to absentee, and more urban counties tend to take a lot longer to count; the perfect formula for a pretty extreme Republican counting bias.

ah okay, so the initial totals will likely be at least somewhat GOP. though i guess we can always compare to how the first results were back in Nov too to see how it's going

Actually, in Nov, the first few % were very heavily Biden but that's just kind of random based on which counties start first.

True, I think Rs jumped out to a huge lead pretty soon after that though.

[Catalunya]

I was on the phone hustling last minute to make sure everyone I know votes and got three family members to commit to vote tomorrow:

One registered in 2018, but has never voted.
The other voted in 2016 and that's it.
One has only voted in presidentials and never in a runoff.

If we win tomorrow, it is going to be so overwhelming.

Doing great work my friend! Don’t forget to remind them tomorrow again to vote McConnell’s ass out.

[Adam Griffin]

Wrt above discussion:

I am sure this has been reported on but how will this Georgie vote count go in terms of what is processed first. Will this be similar to election night where it was red early and then later vote dumps were bluer and the question is if the republicans can max out on E-Day vote enough to hold on or is it the opposite?

"Smaller and more Republican counties -> larger and more Democratic counties" along with "Election Day vote -> early in-person vote -> mail vote" will be the general order of the evening. However and with 159 different counties, that doesn't mean all statewide in-person vote will be in before any mail vote, etc. Also very important: the city of Atlanta (5% of the state's vote and 10% of the Democratic vote) closes its polls one hour later than the rest of the state.

So yes, Georgia has a counting bias that favors Republicans early in the evening, with it being a case of whether or not Democrats can overcome those margins as more and more Democratic vote is counted (similar to VA). When there's 1 or 2% of the vote in, don't be surprised if the GOP leads 65-35 or whatever.  

2020 did have a break with historical trends - at least in the early stages of vote count:

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://twitter.com/anna_bahr/status/1346225129349550081

Little did these strategists realize... LATINOS POR LOEFFLER

[Progressive Pessimist]

I was on the phone hustling last minute to make sure everyone I know votes and got three family members to commit to vote tomorrow:

One registered in 2018, but has never voted.
The other voted in 2016 and that's it.
One has only voted in presidentials and never in a runoff.

If we win tomorrow, it is going to be so overwhelming.

Doing great work my friend! Don’t forget to remind them tomorrow again to vote McConnell’s ass out.

McConnell f***ing with the prospect of $2,000 stimulus checks will hopefully give some voters a tangible idea why McConnell remaining as leader is a top reason why Loeffler and Perdue should lose. I was skeptical of running against McConnell as a tactic for Democrats bearing fruit until this happened.

[SCNCmod]

This is about the outcome I’m expecting as well, though I’d be ecstatic to be proven wrong. It’s really all up to how many of those rurals show up tomorrow.

I agree regarding rural GA deciding.  I've said for a while now that I hope Warnock & Ossoff are really working to turnout Dems in Rural counties- and not placing all their eggs in big Atlanta area turnout- b/c I think the big turnout in Atlanta may get things to even... then Dems need to keep the rural Margins down enough to win both races.  I guess we will see tomorrow if they successfully targeted enough voters in Rural GA.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I was on the phone hustling last minute to make sure everyone I know votes and got three family members to commit to vote tomorrow:

One registered in 2018, but has never voted.
The other voted in 2016 and that's it.
One has only voted in presidentials and never in a runoff.

If we win tomorrow, it is going to be so overwhelming.

Doing great work my friend! Don’t forget to remind them tomorrow again to vote McConnell’s ass out.

Everyone is getting a text in the morning and a 4PM call to see if they cast their ballot and I will literally pick them up and drive them to their voting location.

[South Dakota Democrat]

That is sadly true.

The Republican Party has become the cult of Trump.

Aside from a few exceptions, one has to be a Trump bootlicker to have any chance of winning.

I agree that this kind of personality cult which ignores or completely distracts from the issues/voting records/policies of the candidates (something that is probably hurting Republicans a little in this race) is unfortunate and not healthy in any political system. You can tell Perdue’s only doing it to save his job, and I honestly feel a little sorry for him (although I know you guys don’t ).

It kinda reminds me of when McSally said something like "I don't talk to fake news" when asked by CNN's Manu Raju about the impeachment proceedings.

It was like a middle-schooler trying to act tough in front of the cool kids.  

The exact quote was a little bit worse, she said "You're a liberal hack!" (and basically hissed the word hack)

[QAnonKelly]

My dad was going on today about how black farmers in South Georgia are going to make Perdue win handily.

I'll bite.  Why?

Maybe his dad saw this tweet

https://twitter.com/ewerickson/status/1345889577899356162?s=21

Lol I was trying to find the source of this and you found it. IIRC Erickson is his favorite pundit. Lmao thanks.

[SCNCmod]

Loeffler joining Perdue in going full Trump. Guess they believe that's their only way to win now. Guess her own election should not be voided though but Bidens should?

I wonder if the Die Hard Trump crowd would even reward a last-minute endorsement (of their strategy) .. or if they will see it as weak and not committed enough (for waiting so late for a full-throated endorsement of it).

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Loeffler joining Perdue in going full Trump. Guess they believe that's their only way to win now. Guess her own election should not be voided though but Bidens should?

I wonder if the Die Hard Trump crowd would even reward a last-minute endorsement (of their strategy) .. or if they will see it as weak and not committed enough (for waiting so late for a full-throated endorsement of it).

So far, it appears that the Die Hard Trump crowd just doesn't care about GA Senate races very much.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1346279238341697542

[South Dakota Democrat]

On a scale of 1-10, how laughable is the bold prediction I'm about to make?

Both dems win, but Ossoff overperforms Warnock.

Not really laughable at all.  I think it's quite possible, given the character assassination of Warnock.

[SCNCmod]

My dad was going on today about how black farmers in South Georgia are going to make Perdue win handily.

I'll bite.  Why?

Maybe his dad saw this tweet

https://twitter.com/ewerickson/status/1345889577899356162?s=21

I wonder if Sonny Perdue (David Perdue''s uncle I think) who was Governor and currently, Trumps Secr of Agriculture has anything to do with such support.   My Granddad and many family members on my mom's side are farmers- and despite Trump's policies not being good for them... they all still voted for and support Trump? (My dad's side has a little more sense!)