2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[BlueSwan]

The four seasons thing was already a joke, but now this is just... lol:

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1325813524069806083

Is this really the hill Republicans want to die on? Is John Roberts that stupid? I highly doubt it.

Apparently he exposed himself to two girls aged 7 and 11. Should set him up nicely for a GOP senate run to own the libs.

[Gass3268]

Ouch to Trump:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1325871697946275840?s=20

[Sbane]

why are republicans stalling by they want every "legal" vote to count and deal with election disputes? The election's over man, what are they doing

Fan service

[Sbane]

The website has updated overnight with a few additional votes from Apache County. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 6203
Provisional ballots: 40602
Ballots ready for tabulation: 30193

Total: 76998

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 65776 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 12151 of them.  He currently trails by 16985, so would finish behind by 4834.

It's over and the networks could call it.

GeorgiaModerate, can you use your math skills to see if AZ (.51 currently) has a chance of surpassing WI (.63) as the tipping point state?

It really depends how those last Maricopa ballots go and how many of those Pima provisionals are actually counted. Maricopa is the big unknown in my opinion but if you look at similar states like Nevada and Colorado, things tightened but Biden started gaining again towards the end. I am sure Biden will gain when the provisionals are counted, but will the remaining Maricopa non-provisional ballots lower Biden's margins even further before that happens? Biden actually did fairly well in the last Maricopa batch fwiw.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The website has updated overnight with a few additional votes from Apache County. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 6203
Provisional ballots: 40602
Ballots ready for tabulation: 30193

Total: 76998

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 65776 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 12151 of them.  He currently trails by 16985, so would finish behind by 4834.

It's over and the networks could call it.

GeorgiaModerate, can you use your math skills to see if AZ (.51 currently) has a chance of surpassing WI (.63) as the tipping point state?

It really depends how those last Maricopa ballots go and how many of those Pima provisionals are actually counted. Maricopa is the big unknown in my opinion but if you look at similar states like Nevada and Colorado, things tightened but Biden started gaining again towards the end. I am sure Biden will gain when the provisionals are counted, but will the remaining Maricopa non-provisional ballots lower Biden's margins even further before that happens? Biden actually did fairly well in the last Maricopa batch fwiw.

Good summary.  At present the two-way vote total is 3.271 million.  Using the assumptions in my earlier updates (50% acceptance of the signature cures and 80% of provisionals, both of which are optimistic), about 65,771 more votes would be accepted, bringing the total to about 3.337 million.  For a margin of 0.63, Biden would need to win by about 21K votes.  He currently leads by 17,143, so would need to net about 4K from the remaining votes, i.e. have them break 35K-31K in his favor, or 53%/47%.  This is certainly doable, but as Sbane said, it all depends on how they break.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Trump compensates being fired by the American people by firing Cabinet secretaries of his.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325859407620689922

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1325871134198390786

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

We now have 4 GOP senators who have congratulated Biden.

Sasse did so about an hour ago.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1325865589039132685

[jimrtex]

Trump becomes the fourth president to never win the PV, after JQ Adams, Hayes, and B Harrison

JFK

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325884977112883200
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325889532840062976

[Brittain33]

Trump becomes the fourth president to never win the PV, after JQ Adams, Hayes, and B Harrison

JFK

! This claim about election fraud is disputed.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Trump becomes the fourth president to never win the PV, after JQ Adams, Hayes, and B Harrison

JFK

! This claim about election fraud is disputed.

Took you mods long enough.  I've been reporting that post for sixty years.  

[Thunder98]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325868256436105217?s=20

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I think this most recent batch from Clark County means Nevada has officially swung to the Dems from 2016.

But mah conservative Latinos narrative!

Trump is still doing 2.3% better in Clark County than in 2016- the county has still swung R.

[Bootes Void]

I think this most recent batch from Clark County means Nevada has officially swung to the Dems from 2016.

But mah conservative Latinos narrative!

Trump is still doing 2.3% better in Clark County than in 2016- the county has still swung R.

I mean there is still late VBM out that will pad onto Biden's margin. Ralston think Biden's wins Nevada by 4

[Gass3268]

I think this most recent batch from Clark County means Nevada has officially swung to the Dems from 2016.

But mah conservative Latinos narrative!

Trump is still doing 2.3% better in Clark County than in 2016- the county has still swung R.

I mean there is still late VBM out that will pad onto Biden's margin. Ralston think Biden's wins Nevada by 4

Yeah, Clinton won by 10.7% in Clark, Biden is now up by 10% and there still a lot left there.

[gf20202]

https://twitter.com/AK_OK/status/1325873031172874242

More runway for an unlikely Biden win? Gross awakens?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/AK_OK/status/1325873031172874242

More runway for an unlikely Biden win? Gross awakens?

Even though, it's extremely unlikely, if Gross manages to pull out a victory, that would be MONUMENTAL.

We would then only need to win 1 of the GA Senate seats (obviously, winning both would be ideal). Too bad, it's probably not going to happen though.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/AK_OK/status/1325873031172874242

More runway for an unlikely Biden win? Gross awakens?

Thought there was a very slim possibility until I noticed that they have a batch of in-person early vote left uncounted which won't really be as favorable to Dems.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/AK_OK/status/1325873031172874242

More runway for an unlikely Biden win? Gross awakens?

Hahaha

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1325895522612285442

there is no bottom...

[Pericles]

Great move to win over Biden voters for the runoff, keep it up!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/AK_OK/status/1325873031172874242

More runway for an unlikely Biden win? Gross awakens?

Gross would need to get about 68% of the remaining ballots to win.  That's not happening.

[Malarkey Decider]

I wonder if Trump supporters who believe the election was stolen will stay home for the runoff.