2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Roronoa D. Law]

It's a good question on what exactly is the ceiling for a lot of these urban counties. Cuyahoga and Wayne likely hit their ceiling under Obama. NYC under Hillary. But Multnomah OR, Suffolk MA, and Orleans LA. Like how high can these places go? There are thousands of people.

[MaxQue]

So Biden leads Trump +1,098 in Georgia. How many votes are expected to come out of Georgia, besides provisionals/military?

There is at least 8/9K out in GA from just regular votes (not provisionals/military)

It was pointed out that so-called military ballots will probably, contrary to one's initial impulse, favor Biden. First, the include not just active service military but individual serving overseas in Diplomatic Corps, ngos, and similar types that move almost universally for Biden. Secondly, the military vote in Georgia is heavily African-American. Yes, maybe we'll see some more of this reported young African-American males supporting Trump stop, but I would suspect Biden wins a majority of those outstanding military ballots.

It also includes American citizens who moved to another country and whose last American residence is in Georgia.

[Ferguson97]

So Biden leads Trump +1,098 in Georgia. How many votes are expected to come out of Georgia, besides provisionals/military?

There is at least 8/9K out in GA from just regular votes (not provisionals/military)

Are these votes expected to skew Biden?

Yes

So Biden should end up being fine in GA, and there's no way Perdue can get back to 50%?

I suppose he can, but Decision Desk seemed confident in their call of a runoff

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Biden now up 1.5K in Georgia. I think the networks can make calls now.

[cp]

How did "The Squad" do in their districts, compared to Biden?

Does anyone have the data?

Omar underperformed. Not sure about the others.

All except Pressley saw their 2018 margins cut by about 10 points. Mind you, this means they went from 85/15 wins to 75/25 wins. Quite an impressive show of incumbency considering how heavily targeted they were by their haters.

[Sir Mohamed]

Any word about AZ? Is Biden pulling it off there? It's still the same like when I went to bed. Now early morning, and no movement.

[pppolitics]

How did "The Squad" do in their districts, compared to Biden?

Does anyone have the data?

Omar underperformed. Not sure about the others.

All except Pressley saw their 2018 margins cut by about 10 points. Mind you, this means they went from 85/15 wins to 75/25 wins. Quite an impressive show of incumbency considering how heavily targeted they were by their haters.

Did they do better or worse than Biden in their own districts?

[VBM]

Democrats should have buyer’s remorse on JFK letting the Cuban refugees in.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN: Maricopa will report some results in 15 minutes.

[Inmate Trump]

CNN: Maricopa will report some results in 15 minutes.

Anyone know how those might skew?

[Bootes Void]

How did "The Squad" do in their districts, compared to Biden?

Does anyone have the data?

Omar underperformed. Not sure about the others.

All except Pressley saw their 2018 margins cut by about 10 points. Mind you, this means they went from 85/15 wins to 75/25 wins. Quite an impressive show of incumbency considering how heavily targeted they were by their haters.

That probably not that impressive, alot of republicans like McConnell and Graham performed about the same as Trump despite having millions of dollars dumped on them. I'm not sure why but it seems like republicans are stubborn

[vitoNova]

Democrats should have buyer’s remorse on JFK letting the Cuban refugees in.

Restoring full relations with Cuba will depress right-wing Cuban turnout.

That's how O won FL twice.  

[Sir Mohamed]

CNN: Maricopa will report some results in 15 minutes.

60k votes, and 140k left to count, according to CNN.

[GeorgiaModerate]

GA Sos: 4K+ absentees left, 3500 from Gwinnett.

[ProudModerate2]

CNN is reporting ...

In 15 minutes, Maricopa County in AZ will release results for about 40-50,000 more votes.

[brucejoel99]

CNN: Maricopa will report some results in 15 minutes.

Anyone know how those might skew?

Apparently for Biden:

BTW, it seems like most of the remaining ballots out of Maricopa are from AZ-6, AZ-7, and AZ-9, so that's a goods sign for Biden.

[charcuterie]

I hope the new AZ numbers seal the deal for Biden, we're on Day 4 and we all know what's going to happen, I just want to get it over with...

[Crumpets]

NBC is also reporting a ballot dump is coming in Arizona at the top of the hour.

[rhg2052]

Nevada planning on reporting 50,000 ballots today starting at 12 EST, the rest over the weekend

[Roll Roons]

50K votes from Nevada (Clark County?) coming in at noon EST.

[Sir Mohamed]

GA Sos: 4K+ absentees left, 3500 from Gwinnett.

Absentee, Americans overseas, are usually heavily Dem? But military ballots may be more R-leaning. It will be very tight.

[cp]

How did "The Squad" do in their districts, compared to Biden?

Does anyone have the data?

Omar underperformed. Not sure about the others.

All except Pressley saw their 2018 margins cut by about 10 points. Mind you, this means they went from 85/15 wins to 75/25 wins. Quite an impressive show of incumbency considering how heavily targeted they were by their haters.

Did they do better or worse than Biden in their own districts?

By a rough estimate of the county vs district maps, Omar and AOC did a little worse; Pressley and Tlaib a little better by about 10% in all cases.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I hope the new AZ numbers seal the deal for Biden, we're on Day 4 and we all know what's going to happen, I just want to get it over with...

I was assuming that they were waiting an official Biden lead in PA to call. Now that that's up I have no idea what they are doing

[DaleCooper]

GA Sos: 4K+ absentees left, 3500 from Gwinnett.

Absentee, Americans overseas, are usually heavily Dem? But military ballots may be more R-leaning. It will be very tight.

They should only be military votes that arrived after Tuesday. pre-election day military votes were counted already with the rest of the mail-in ballots. This was shared earlier in the thread and I can't find it anymore, unfortunately, but I think it was from someone credible.

[ProudModerate2]

By the way ...
What happened to our blue-avatar friends that were so enthusiastic about consistently posting in this thread yesterday?

Jessica
SirWood
SN
Buzz
7sergi9

Who else am I missing?