2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[forsythvoter]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Clayton reports another 262 votes  that went 237-25. 91% Biden in this batch.

[Bootes Void]

If there continues to be an economic recovery, Biden should do what Trump did and immediately take control of the messaging around it. If he does it then 2024 will look decent for him

[forsythvoter]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Given that, do we know how many ballots are still out there?

I think Clayton still has 3,400 or so votes. Biden will probably get another 2,800 vote net margin out of Clayton at this rate.

[musicblind]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Irrespective of who wins or loses Georgia, Trump performed better virtually everywhere than the Republicans did in 2018, yet Brian Kamp won the governorship in Georgia by 53,000 votes.  I think this provides even more evidence that Brian Kamp stole the governorship.

And/or, Georgia is sick of Kemp's sycophancy at the expense of his constituents.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I just noticed that Hickenlooper smashed Cory Gardner by 9%.

This when Mark Kelly is only up by 3.4%.  The two candidates were both considered about equally safe.

So much for the "Hickenlooper was a bad candidate" takes.  Looks like he's the only Senate candidate in a competitive race to match his polling to be fortunate enough to be running in Colorado.

FTFY

lol @ "candidate quality" takes. Never change, Atlas. Never change.

[lfromnj]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Irrespective of who wins or loses Georgia, Trump performed better virtually everywhere than the Republicans did in 2018, yet Brian Kamp won the governorship in Georgia by 53,000 votes.  I think this provides even more evidence that Brian Kamp stole the governorship.

No it just shows Georgia is moving leftwards by 2 points each year due to strong black demographical shifts and urban areas moving left?. Although the black vote seems to have moved a touch to the right it definitely didn't overcome 2 years of shifts in Georgia.

[Benjamin Frank]

If there continues to be an economic recovery, Biden should do what Trump did and immediately take control of the messaging around it. If he does it then 2024 will look decent for him

Not necessarily in this case.  It depends in part on how quickly the economy recovers as to whether most people feel there was a recession or whether it was a Covid caused 'blip' in otherwise sustained economic growth. This gets into economics argument about the marginal benefits of sustained long-term economic growth.  

It took about 6 years for real GDP (meaning net of inflation) to get back to where it was before the start of the Great Recession but, it took much less time than that for the economy to start improving again.  From that perspective, from 2009 or so to 2019, there was 9-10 years of continuing economic growth.

Obviously there is no way a first Biden term can reach that length of sustained economic growth.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

If Biden wins every uncalled state besides Alaska, then I matched my 2012 prediction and again, only missed Florida.

I got the margins off but then again, so did nearly everyone.

I think I would only be missing Texas and ME-02.

[gf20202]

Clayton talked a big game about finishing tonight but I don't see how it's possible. Only getting batches of 275 votes or so every 30 minutes and there's still like 3,600 votes in the county to count.

[Kuumo]

If Biden wins every uncalled state besides Alaska, then I matched my 2012 prediction and again, only missed Florida.

I got the margins off but then again, so did nearly everyone.

I think I would only be missing Texas and ME-02.

If that happened, I would only have missed Georgia.

[gf20202]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Given that, do we know how many ballots are still out there?

There's approx 9k of early votes left in GA plus provisionals and any late arriving mail. Vast majority is in Gwinett, which has gone home for the night, and Clayton which said they are trying to finish.

[BlueSwan]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Given that, do we know how many ballots are still out there?

There's approx 9k of early votes left in GA plus provisionals and any late arriving mail. Vast majority is in Gwinett, which has gone home for the night, and Clayton which said they are trying to finish.

But late arriving mail won't count in GA, right?

[Dr. Frankenstein]

Clayton just reported another 268 ballots. Went for Biden 249-19. Biden 92% in this batch.

Trump lead in GA now +1,479

I went to bed about 8 hours ago. How does it look in GA, will Biden pull the upset?

Looks very good for Biden. He's likely to end with a +3k lead once all the mail-ins are counted .

Thanks, sounds good!

[gf20202]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Given that, do we know how many ballots are still out there?

There's approx 9k of early votes left in GA plus provisionals and any late arriving mail. Vast majority is in Gwinett, which has gone home for the night, and Clayton which said they are trying to finish.

But late arriving mail won't count in GA, right?

It will if its post-marked by election day and gets there by Friday or Saturday, I forget which day. They don't know have a hard number of what they could be. If all of it showed up, it would be another 9k but in reality, probably a few hundred at most.

[Blair]

I've woken up and beyond a raving Trump press conference nothing seems to have happened. From a quick skim PA is still taking years & Georgia is going to come down to about a 1000 votes either way right?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Fox and AP going rogue in AZ is the only reason no one has called NV yet.

That shouldn't stop another network from calling it.

I suspect the knowledge that Donnie Dumb**** is going to lose it when the election gets called against him has the networks making sure all the pieces really are in place for him to formally lose before they call it. I.e given the circumstances, they're being responsible journalists; they're not going to call it for Biden until it's mathematically impossible for Trump to win (without extraordinary judicial intervention).

[BlueSwan]

So, it is 8am here in Europe. Are we even expecting any more results until much much later today?

[BudgieForce]

I've woken up and beyond a raving Trump press conference nothing seems to have happened. From a quick skim PA is still taking years & Georgia is going to come down to about a 1000 votes either way right?

I think the consensus is Biden will be ahead by a few thousand after everything in Georgia.

[Hnv1]

I expected to wake up to a blue PA, how many ballots are left there?

[BlueSwan]

I've woken up and beyond a raving Trump press conference nothing seems to have happened. From a quick skim PA is still taking years & Georgia is going to come down to about a 1000 votes either way right?

Also in Europe, but from what I can gather:

- PA should definitely go to Biden, but everybody is too afraid to call it.
- Same with NV
- AZ probably goes Biden but the call was premature.
- GA is gonna be the closest election since FL in 2000, but Biden is probably slightly favoured.
- NC is still likely Trump.
- No real evidence of voter fraud.
- No major legal rulings

[2952-0-0]

I expected to wake up to a blue PA, how many ballots are left there?

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

This shows the vote total in each swing state, as well as the composition of each batch of votes and the trailing candidate's progress.

[Ferguson97]

Politico has seemed to have quietly called Arizona, unless I missed them do it earlier.

[Benjamin Frank]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Irrespective of who wins or loses Georgia, Trump performed better virtually everywhere than the Republicans did in 2018, yet Brian Kamp won the governorship in Georgia by 53,000 votes.  I think this provides even more evidence that Brian Kamp stole the governorship.

That's a pretty big claim, anyway the turnout differential between the counties matter as wlell

It's not a new claim and obviously Stacey Abrams believes it and she also obviously wasn't rejected by the people in Georgia since she's being credited for Georgia being so close.

[Bootes Void]

If there continues to be an economic recovery, Biden should do what Trump did and immediately take control of the messaging around it. If he does it then 2024 will look decent for him

Not necessarily in this case.  It depends in part on how quickly the economy recovers as to whether most people feel there was a recession or whether it was a Covid caused 'blip' in otherwise sustained economic growth. This gets into economics argument about the marginal benefits of sustained long-term economic growth.  

It took about 6 years for real GDP (meaning net of inflation) to get back to where it was before the start of the Great Recession but, it took much less time than that for the economy to start improving again.  From that perspective, from 2009 or so to 2019, there was 9-10 years of continuing economic growth.

Obviously there is no way a first Biden term can reach that length of sustained economic growth.

Well if the economy goes back to 4%, he should brag about it even though it likely would have happens anyway. He should brag about the economy being good and how he has made it better. He should use some of Trump tactics and messaging for this

[BudgieForce]

Politico has seemed to have quietly called Arizona, unless I missed them do it earlier.

I'm not sure but they might use AP for their election results.