2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GeneralMacArthur]

From 538 blog:


NATE SILVER
NOV. 5, 8:42 PM
This is interesting. The Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska, Al Gross, is claiming he’ll win once all ballots are counted. (He currently trails by 31 points.) I’m not sure I buy that but … if no mail votes have been counted in Alaska yet, the results we do have so far could be significantly more friendly to Republicans than the final result. If so, that would presumably also affect the race for the presidency (where Biden trails by a similar margin to Gross) and the House (where Alyse Galvin is running a little better than Biden or Gross). It’s a long shot, but you might not want to totally sleep on this race.

Yeah and Doug Jones said he was only behind by 2.

[Hammy]

I do have to wonder if the lack of retracting is a pride thing.  It does appear so at Fox, as they're already wrong.  They said Trump was only getting 45% of the remaining vote (last night) which is obviously false.

There's a bunch of different places that remaining votes are outstanding so it still may not be that far off in the end.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So if Trump wins Arizona, that means we were 30k votes away from a tie (WI and GA).  DAMN!

Alternatively, if Trump wins Arizona and Nevada, holds Pennsylvania and loses Georgia it's also a tie.

Not likely at all but it'd be a pretty wacky map.

[wbrocks67]

GA really teased us with that 3K Trump lead and now they are taking forever naturally

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

From 538 blog:


NATE SILVER
NOV. 5, 8:42 PM
This is interesting. The Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska, Al Gross, is claiming he’ll win once all ballots are counted. (He currently trails by 31 points.) I’m not sure I buy that but … if no mail votes have been counted in Alaska yet, the results we do have so far could be significantly more friendly to Republicans than the final result. If so, that would presumably also affect the race for the presidency (where Biden trails by a similar margin to Gross) and the House (where Alyse Galvin is running a little better than Biden or Gross). It’s a long shot, but you might not want to totally sleep on this race.

Hook it strait into my veins

[philly09]

GA really teased us with that 3K Trump lead and now they are taking forever naturally

Seriously.

[New York En Marche!]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1324529210426302465/photo/1


Seems to be unable to load the tweet here but 16,105 votes left in Georgia

[Kuumo]

You guys keep waiting for another giant dump

Atlas loves giant dumps.

I've been sitting here for hours waiting!

[HisGrace]

Why hasnt NV been called?

Horserace narrative. Nobody wants to call the race for Biden.

I know, this is dumb, Trump is not going to win 58% of the remaining vote in AZ and most people are saying they can call NV as well with the composition of the remaining ballots.

You guys keep waiting for another giant dump

Atlas loves giant dumps.

Kinky.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From 538 blog:


NATE SILVER
NOV. 5, 8:42 PM
This is interesting. The Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska, Al Gross, is claiming he’ll win once all ballots are counted. (He currently trails by 31 points.) I’m not sure I buy that but … if no mail votes have been counted in Alaska yet, the results we do have so far could be significantly more friendly to Republicans than the final result. If so, that would presumably also affect the race for the presidency (where Biden trails by a similar margin to Gross) and the House (where Alyse Galvin is running a little better than Biden or Gross). It’s a long shot, but you might not want to totally sleep on this race.

Is Natey boy a lurker here?

Huh, there is this user on here with the name of FiveyFox...

[philly09]

Down to 50,000 in PA.

[wbrocks67]

Down to 50,000 in PA.

and these are all without any Philly/Allegheny

[EJ24]

Down to 50,000 in PA.

tick tock........

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Down to 50,000 in PA.

and these are all without any Philly/Allegheny

How many in Philly?

[Thunder98]

6 minutes until AZ takes a big dump.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/thenewsoncnbc/status/1324522495345655808?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Down to 50,000 in PA.

tick tock........

TikTok, TikTok, TikTok...

[GeorgiaModerate]

From 538 blog:


NATE SILVER
NOV. 5, 8:42 PM
This is interesting. The Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska, Al Gross, is claiming he’ll win once all ballots are counted. (He currently trails by 31 points.) I’m not sure I buy that but … if no mail votes have been counted in Alaska yet, the results we do have so far could be significantly more friendly to Republicans than the final result. If so, that would presumably also affect the race for the presidency (where Biden trails by a similar margin to Gross) and the House (where Alyse Galvin is running a little better than Biden or Gross). It’s a long shot, but you might not want to totally sleep on this race.

Is Natey boy a lurker here?

Huh, there is this user on here with the name of FiveyFox...

Years ago, back when he was still with 538, there was an occasional poster here who I suspected might be Harry Enten based on his writing style.

[musicblind]

From 538 blog:


NATE SILVER
NOV. 5, 8:42 PM
This is interesting. The Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska, Al Gross, is claiming he’ll win once all ballots are counted. (He currently trails by 31 points.) I’m not sure I buy that but … if no mail votes have been counted in Alaska yet, the results we do have so far could be significantly more friendly to Republicans than the final result. If so, that would presumably also affect the race for the presidency (where Biden trails by a similar margin to Gross) and the House (where Alyse Galvin is running a little better than Biden or Gross). It’s a long shot, but you might not want to totally sleep on this race.

Is Natey boy a lurker here?

Huh, there is this user on here with the name of FiveyFox...

That would be wild.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

From 538 blog:


NATE SILVER
NOV. 5, 8:42 PM
This is interesting. The Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska, Al Gross, is claiming he’ll win once all ballots are counted. (He currently trails by 31 points.) I’m not sure I buy that but … if no mail votes have been counted in Alaska yet, the results we do have so far could be significantly more friendly to Republicans than the final result. If so, that would presumably also affect the race for the presidency (where Biden trails by a similar margin to Gross) and the House (where Alyse Galvin is running a little better than Biden or Gross). It’s a long shot, but you might not want to totally sleep on this race.

Is Natey boy a lurker here?

Huh, there is this user on here with the name of FiveyFox...

Years ago, back when he was still with 538, there was an occasional poster here who I suspected might be Harry Enten based on his writing style.

Wouldn’t shock me if there’s some pundit on here. Maybe Enten, maybe Silver. I’m pretty sure that they’ve cited Atlas before.

[riceowl]

Down to 50,000 in PA.

and these are all without any Philly/Allegheny

How many in Philly?

72,470

[HisGrace]

6 minutes until AZ takes a big dump.

All of the remaining states are obviously having trouble staying regular.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

You know it must really humiliating for Martha McSally to watch Arizona rapidly narrowing and she’s still definitively done.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Update from PA.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 56,833 (88% counted)

Of the remaining ~398,500 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 171,000 of them - (43.0%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 3,486 (99% counted)

Of the remaining ~30,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 16,743 of them - (55.8%)

PA - Biden down by 50,571 (94% counted)

Of the remaining ~375,500 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~213,100 of them - (56.7%)

The ratios of late votes coming in are roughly:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  55.0%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  57.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.0%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  75.0%)

The last two clumps of PA votes just in were in Biden's favour 76%-24% and 68-32%, so the late PA vote estimate is reasonable.

Biden is chiseling the 50K lead in PA (Trump currently has) 5K votes at a time.

[EJ24]

Down to 50,000 in PA.

and these are all without any Philly/Allegheny

How many in Philly?

About 72k left in Philly and 36k in Allegheny.