2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324527167775019008

[idkk]

Re: The Pima Drop.

Is that all the remaining votes in Pima, or just the earlier ones, that were always more likely to be favorable to Trump?

My understanding of Arizona is that the main "gap" is between earlier-counted votes and later-counted votes, where earlier-counted votes are expected to be friendlier to Trump than later-counted votes.  Meaning that the first drop from X county would be good for Trump, but the second drop would be worse.

So if that's the first drop from Pima, and Trump only "stayed on track", then that's good for Biden.  But if that was all the Pima votes, then it's a good result for Trump.

Your analysis is correct. I don't think that is the final drop from Pima

It’s not, this was the outstanding ballot count from earlier (per Garrett Archer):

Apache: 1,5k
Cochise: 5,4k
Coconino: 13k
Gila: 370
Graham: 80
Greenlee: 6
La Paz: 880
Maricopa: 275k
Mohave: 6.5k
Navajo: 4.4k
Pima: 40k
Santa Cruz: 1.3k
Yavapai: 8.4k
Yuma: 8.4k

[Buzz]

I do have to wonder if the lack of retracting is a pride thing.  It does appear so at Fox, as they're already wrong.  They said Trump was only getting 45% of the remaining vote (last night) which is obviously false.

[philly09]

Philly could end this race right now with a vote dump, but the judge just gave the okay to start counting a few hours ago.

[Rep Jessica]

Kyle Griffin
@kylegriffin1
·
22s
2016: Trump wins Michigan by 10,704 votes.

2020: Biden wins Michigan by (about) 146,896 votes.

[Podgy the Bear]

I predict one or more of the networks will call it for Biden later tonight.  The results in PA are inevitable and justify the call.  This is making great TV ratings for primetime.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324527167775019008

Fitting number of Trump votes.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/brianne09/status/1324528426875785217?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324527167775019008

Fitting number of Trump votes.

Now that you bring that up, I can't unsee it.

[lfromnj]

I do have to wonder if the lack of retracting is a pride thing.  It does appear so at Fox, as they're already wrong.  They said Trump was only getting 45% of the remaining vote (last night) which is obviously false.

Yup it is, in 2018 it was clear TJ cox was gonna win but AP didn't uncall it for Valladolid till he actually did win

[Bootes Void]

You guys keep waiting for another giant dump

[GeorgiaModerate]

From 538 blog:


NATE SILVER
NOV. 5, 8:42 PM
This is interesting. The Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska, Al Gross, is claiming he’ll win once all ballots are counted. (He currently trails by 31 points.) I’m not sure I buy that but … if no mail votes have been counted in Alaska yet, the results we do have so far could be significantly more friendly to Republicans than the final result. If so, that would presumably also affect the race for the presidency (where Biden trails by a similar margin to Gross) and the House (where Alyse Galvin is running a little better than Biden or Gross). It’s a long shot, but you might not want to totally sleep on this race.

[Badger]

Had Allegheny County been able to report today this probably would have been over now.

Yeah, WTF happened in our hometown dr. Scholl?

[Angasboy15]

Maricopa drop in 13 minutes.

[Inmate Trump]

So we’re really going into the weekend without having a winner?

[Beet]

I do have to wonder if the lack of retracting is a pride thing.  It does appear so at Fox, as they're already wrong.  They said Trump was only getting 45% of the remaining vote (last night) which is obviously false.

It's a principle of journalism: Stick by your story.

[Buzz]

So if Trump wins Arizona, that means we were 30k votes away from a tie (WI and GA).  DAMN!

[GeorgiaModerate]

So we’re really going into the weekend without having a winner?

Nope, I expect PA to be called later tonight if they keep reporting, or tomorrow at the latest.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So we’re really going into the weekend without having a winner?

It's Thursday.

[Badger]

Had Allegheny County been able to report today this probably would have been over now.

The fish that is temporarily saving Trump?

I actually saw that in theaters when I was a kid.

[musicblind]

You guys keep waiting for another giant dump

Atlas loves giant dumps.

[ultraviolet]

So we’re really going into the weekend without having a winner?

We will likely have one by tomorrow

[The Free North]

From 538 blog:


NATE SILVER
NOV. 5, 8:42 PM
This is interesting. The Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska, Al Gross, is claiming he’ll win once all ballots are counted. (He currently trails by 31 points.) I’m not sure I buy that but … if no mail votes have been counted in Alaska yet, the results we do have so far could be significantly more friendly to Republicans than the final result. If so, that would presumably also affect the race for the presidency (where Biden trails by a similar margin to Gross) and the House (where Alyse Galvin is running a little better than Biden or Gross). It’s a long shot, but you might not want to totally sleep on this race.

I mean half the vote is counted or something crazy low like that....hes losing by a ton, what else is he supposed to say when someone asks why he hasnt conceded yet? Yeah i'm staying in because i'm only going to lose by 11 when all votes are counted?

[GALeftist]

From 538 blog:


NATE SILVER
NOV. 5, 8:42 PM
This is interesting. The Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska, Al Gross, is claiming he’ll win once all ballots are counted. (He currently trails by 31 points.) I’m not sure I buy that but … if no mail votes have been counted in Alaska yet, the results we do have so far could be significantly more friendly to Republicans than the final result. If so, that would presumably also affect the race for the presidency (where Biden trails by a similar margin to Gross) and the House (where Alyse Galvin is running a little better than Biden or Gross). It’s a long shot, but you might not want to totally sleep on this race.

Is Natey boy a lurker here?

[philly09]

Is GA going to resume counting?