2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Hope For A New Era]

Wait, so does this lower figure make PA look better or worse for Biden?

[Tender Branson]

Biden expected to finish 50k-100k ahead in PA when all is counted.

There are still more ballots coming in until Friday, so +80.000 or even +100.000 is still the most likely outcome.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324243214438699008?s=20

[Tender Branson]

Wait, so does this lower figure make PA look better or worse for Biden?

No change really.

If Biden keeps winning the remaining 450k ballots by a 75-24 margin, he can easily make up the current deficit.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Seems to be a ton of ballots yet to be included in Atlanta per CNN. They're hard at work.

Key question: Atlanta specifically or the rest of Fulton? Because that matters a lot.

Isn't the rest of Fulton mostly black anyway? I really don't know now that I think about it, I feel like whenever we talk about Fulton it's always ATL lol

The rest of Fulton is a mish mosh. Suburbs to the south are mostly black and middle to upper class, those to the north mostly white and middle to upper class. Some of the cities north of Atlanta in Fulton county, like Sandy Springs and Alpharetta, swung strongly Biden.

So I went into DRA and decided to see the Fulton results in Atlanta vs the rest of the county.
Non-Atlanta:
Total Population 2010

Pop %
Total 527,347 100.0%
White 238,627 45.3%
Hispanic 51,677 9.8%
Black 195,063 37.0%
Asian 43,027 8.2%
Native 3,944 0.7%
Pacific 712 0.1%

Total Population 2018

Pop %
Total 581,871 100.0%
White 248,036 42.6%
Hispanic 54,908 9.4%
Black 221,325 38.0%
Asian 58,155 10.0%
Native 5,526 0.9%
Pacific 829 0.1%


Atlanta:
Total Population 2010

Pop %
Total 393,234 100.0%
White 137,387 34.9%
Hispanic 20,889 5.3%
Black 221,829 56.4%
Asian 15,230 3.9%
Native 3,149 0.8%
Pacific 425 0.1%

Total Population 2018

Pop %
Total 439,883 100.0%
White 158,719 36.1%
Hispanic 19,420 4.4%
Black 241,942 55.0%
Asian 20,991 4.8%
Native 3,736 0.8%
Pacific 676 0.2%

[Xing]

Hmmmm, if the lower number is correct, that’s cutting it a bit close. Biden probably still pulls it out, but it probably ends up slightly closer in terms of percentage than Wisconsin.

[Non Swing Voter]

So apparently the real number of ballots left to count in PA is around 450K.

Yeah I can't see Trump winning PA by this point.

Biden would be pushing it if there were 750,000 votes left. 450K, no chance.

What's the source for the 450K figure?

https://twitter.com/julianrouth/status/1324233913313746945?s=20

his numbers don't make sense.  Alleghany is at its 2016 totals.  Is he suggesting the total vote didn't go up at all in Pittsburgh despite the fact that it went up everywhere else?

[Non Swing Voter]

Biden expected to finish 50k-100k ahead in PA when all is counted.

There are still more ballots coming in until Friday, so +80.000 or even +100.000 is still the most likely outcome.

we dont want to rely on late arriving ballots because that will more clearly be the subject of Trump's litigation spree.

[GP270watch]

 This is the most annoying election ever.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324243214438699008?s=20

Wayne and Milwaukee turnout were a decent bit up from 2016 FWIW, although Philly already did have high turnout for 2016 compared to the former 2.

[kwabbit]

When is Maricopa delivering its next round of ballots?

They are being threatened and yelled at by armed MAGA scum and it's causing delays.

Well that's annoying

[DaleCooper]

If Biden keeps winning mail-in votes by the margins we've seen then he should be up by Wisconsin numbers not counting any of the pending late votes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bonus:

Atlanta

President 2016

Votes %
Democratic 148,487 80.1%
Republican 30,193 16.3%
Other 6,647 3.6%


Governor 2018

Votes %
Democratic 151,612 82.8%
Republican 29,922 16.3%
Other 1,678 0.9%


Non-Atlanta

President 2016

Votes   %
Democratic   148,543   60.6%
Republican   87,588   35.7%
Other   9,118   3.7%

Governor 2018

Votes %
Democratic 154,751 64.4%
Republican 83,069 34.6%
Other 2,530 1.1%

[Pick Up the Phone]

Counting all the votes = stealing

Trumpspeak at its best.

[DaleCooper]

What's the story in PA? Were there just fewer votes than we thought? Are the total counts now impacted and what should we expect?

[JerryArkansas]

I think there is also some confusion on what is counted vs what is reported.  Votes may be counted, but not yet reported into the system, waiting for a large amount to dump at once.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324243214438699008?s=20

this seems spot on

[Pick Up the Phone]

How is the situation in GA? is Biden likely to overcome this 23,000 vote deficit?

[Splash]

I am hearing conflicting reports but I'll take 450K as a conservative estimate.

Let's assume Biden wins them 80-20 which isn't unrealistic given what we've seen so far and the fact that a quarter of them could be from Philadelphia. That would net him 270K which would be enough to to erase his current 164K deficit and then add a cushion of ~100K.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Should we start worrying about PA?

[Dr. Arch]

How is the situation in GA? is Biden likely to overcome this 23,000 vote deficit?

Read my earlier post.

[Blair]

Sorry to be annoying I've just woken up and can't see a good summary of the nights counting; what's the current situation?

[musicblind]

Are we getting any more of the Georgia vote tonight?

[GALeftist]

Should we start worrying about PA?

Not if you don't want to cause yourself undue stress, it seems.

[Rand]

Should we start worrying about PA?

If you're a Trump supporter, yes.