2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So based on the numbers above Biden needs ~68% of the remaining Georgia ballots. He's been consistently getting above 70%.

[Hindsight was 2020]

CNN reported that there were only 122k or so votes left to count in Philly if I heard it correctly.

That number doesn’t add up to 30% of the remaining vote

[Ferguson97]

CNN just announced that the Georgia SOS said there is 90k ballots left to count!

wait, so does this mean Biden only needs to win 33% of remaining ballots since his margin is -29k?

29,000/90,000 = .32222222

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CNN reported that there were only 122k or so votes left to count in Philly if I heard it correctly.

CNN just announced that the Georgia SOS said there is 90k ballots left to count!

We thus head, slowly but surely, towards what can be seen as a climax.

[GALeftist]

Georgia margin ~26k as of 7ish minutes ago via DDHQ.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Mmm, riots??
https://twitter.com/BrianaWhitney/status/1324210208948719616?s=19

But these are white people in MAGA gear

I was told all rioting would be urban and dusky

[Ancestral Republican]

I'm for bed y'all. Please leave some good news (pres + send) for me in the morning. If you do, I promise I'll never roast the Falcons again!

[JohnCA246]

Pls no!!
https://twitter.com/alexadobrien/status/1324218271382556673?s=19

The poll workers should be armed so that they can clean the degenerates off themselves.

This should be deleted.

[philly09]

CNN just announced that the Georgia SOS said there is 90k ballots left to count!

wait, so does this mean Biden only needs to win 33% of remaining ballots since his margin is -29k?

29,000/90,000 = .32222222

Now down to 25,000 votes.

[n1240]

The current margin in PA is 164,414.

Philly is now about 70% in. Trump + Biden current total = 571,552.

That implies that there are 244,000 mail in votes left in Philly.

Up until now, VBM in PA has been Biden +68%.

This means from Philly alone, Biden can expect to gain 166,000 votes.

That's just enough to erase the gap.

Philly has 120k left, can find remaining ballot counts here https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx (some are outdated, particularly York where they actually have close to 0 ballots left).

[Ancestral Republican]

Pls no!!
https://twitter.com/alexadobrien/status/1324218271382556673?s=19

The poll workers should be armed so that they can clean the degenerates off themselves.

This should be deleted.

And who are you?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

CNN just announced that the Georgia SOS said there is 90k ballots left to count!

wait, so does this mean Biden only needs to win 33% of remaining ballots since his margin is -29k?

29,000/90,000 = .32222222

No, because Trump would win the other 61,000 and increase the margin by 31,000. Biden needs to win ~60,000 of the ballots, about two thirds.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

CNN just announced that the Georgia SOS said there is 90k ballots left to count!

wait, so does this mean Biden only needs to win 33% of remaining ballots since his margin is -29k?

29,000/90,000 = .32222222

That's the amount he needs to lead trump to win. So do .32323232+((1-.323233)/2)

[Meclazine for Israel]

GA should be a formality if these numbers keep coming in.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 79,173 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~464,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 192,300 of them - (41.5%)

NV - Biden up by 7,647 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~194,200 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 93,300 of them - (48.0%)

GA - Biden down by 28,827 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~257,200 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 143,024 of them - (55.6%)

PA - Biden down by 164,414 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~784,672 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 474,600 of them - (60.5%)

AK - Biden down by 51,400 (56% counted)

Of the remaining ~135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 93,200 of them - (69.0%)

This plot shows how Biden wins each state by just plotting the drop in % needed to win. Obviously, when Biden falls below 50%, he is in the lead and on the way to 100% vote counted.

The final counting is all in the direction of Biden as illustrated.



Based on the current trajectory, Biden should hit the front in GA before the end of vote counting provided there are 250,000 votes left to count.

As for Arizona and Nevada, promised us so much, yet gave us nothing.

[Andy Hine]

The current margin in PA is 164,414.

Philly is now about 70% in. Trump + Biden current total = 571,552.

That implies that there are 244,000 mail in votes left in Philly.

Up until now, VBM in PA has been Biden +68%.

This means from Philly alone, Biden can expect to gain 166,000 votes.

That's just enough to erase the gap.

Philly has 120k left, can find remaining ballot counts here https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx (some are outdated, particularly York where they actually have close to 0 ballots left).

Philly has 70% reported on NYT. and has reported about 570,000. So they're are roughly 820,000 votes in total. So about 250,000.

[South Dakota Democrat]

CNN just announced that the Georgia SOS said there is 90k ballots left to count!

wait, so does this mean Biden only needs to win 33% of remaining ballots since his margin is -29k?

29,000/90,000 = .32222222

No.  Trump is leading.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

These protestors are being very terrible right now. Being a poll worker is stressful enough. Having to worry about protestors outside is just undesirable.
Why can't these people get a life and go home. Stop harassing hard-working men and women critical to our elections going smoothly.

[n1240]

The current margin in PA is 164,414.

Philly is now about 70% in. Trump + Biden current total = 571,552.

That implies that there are 244,000 mail in votes left in Philly.

Up until now, VBM in PA has been Biden +68%.

This means from Philly alone, Biden can expect to gain 166,000 votes.

That's just enough to erase the gap.

Philly has 120k left, can find remaining ballot counts here https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx (some are outdated, particularly York where they actually have close to 0 ballots left).

Philyl has 70% reported on NYT. and has reported about 570,000. So they're are roughly 820,000 votes in total. So about 250,000.

Why are you relying on NYTimes when I literally provided a data source from the state?

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

Not sure I can last much longer tonight. This week has taken its toll. My body is failing me. I think I will probably be waking up to big news in AZ and GA. Hoping for the best.

[musicblind]

Should I be encouraged or discouraged by these Georgia numbers?

[Hindsight was 2020]

The current margin in PA is 164,414.

Philly is now about 70% in. Trump + Biden current total = 571,552.

That implies that there are 244,000 mail in votes left in Philly.

Up until now, VBM in PA has been Biden +68%.

This means from Philly alone, Biden can expect to gain 166,000 votes.

That's just enough to erase the gap.

Philly has 120k left, can find remaining ballot counts here https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx (some are outdated, particularly York where they actually have close to 0 ballots left).

Philyl has 70% reported on NYT. and has reported about 570,000. So they're are roughly 820,000 votes in total. So about 250,000.

Why are you relying on NYTimes when I literally provided a data source from the state?

It’s not just NYT. Everyone has Philly at only 70% in so 120k left doesn’t make sense math wise

[Andy Hine]

The current margin in PA is 164,414.

Philly is now about 70% in. Trump + Biden current total = 571,552.

That implies that there are 244,000 mail in votes left in Philly.

Up until now, VBM in PA has been Biden +68%.

This means from Philly alone, Biden can expect to gain 166,000 votes.

That's just enough to erase the gap.

Philly has 120k left, can find remaining ballot counts here https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx (some are outdated, particularly York where they actually have close to 0 ballots left).

Philyl has 70% reported on NYT. and has reported about 570,000. So they're are roughly 820,000 votes in total. So about 250,000.

Why are you relying on NYTimes when I literally provided a data source from the state?

[Non Swing Voter]

Should I be encouraged or discouraged by these Georgia numbers?

It is going to be a nail biter.  within the recount margin (0.5%) no matter who wins.

[GP270watch]

Should I be encouraged or discouraged by these Georgia numbers?

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1324208012265967617?s=20

 This seems encouraging, local reporter on the ground.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Pls no!!
https://twitter.com/alexadobrien/status/1324218271382556673?s=19

The poll workers should be armed so that they can clean the degenerates off themselves.

This should be deleted.