2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[BigSerg]

https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelcrowley/status/1324173298092134401

Sad!!!!!!!

[Bootes Void]

One thing I have noticed is that polls are more accurate when you have only same day voting. Mail in and early voting can sometimes screw with that

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

This election makes me glad that Manchin was up for reelection in 2018 instead of this year.  If he was running this year, he would have gotten annihilated.

Yeah, I have a hard time rooting for Manchin. I realize he has to watch his back as a red state Democrat, but half the time he doesn't even side with the party.

[ProgressiveModerate]

There's about 20k mail-in votes out in Clayton too, which is an 85% Biden county with the votes that have already been counted

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

If you had to guess, how much votes would you say Biden wins or loses by?

I'll say he wins by 20K or bit under.

Around this. It depends on margins.

Does anyone know if we can push Perdue under 50?

Definately a possibility; Perdue is at 50.2% right now, meaning a 0.5-0.6% gap closure between him and Osoff should get him over the edge, and it seems like based on Biden’s current rates, Biden is already betting roughly 1% in the state

[Horsemask]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

[philly09]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

Crossover votes from McCain loyalists to Biden.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

We don’t know. Fox News could have some weird agenda, but AP is pretty reliable, and they must either know something we don’t or don’t want to retract their call to draw attention to their reputation

[DaleCooper]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

The only indicator is that they (and WSJ) are using different data services than the NYT. Whether they're better or more accurate or not is anyone's guess, though it should be noted that theirs didn't have the same reporting error that NYT had earlier.

[Bootes Void]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

Different set of data and exit polls. They don't use Edison

[Rand]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

It’s a simple calculus.

[Ancestral Republican]

Is this the longest thread in forum history?

Third largest. I just posted in the Forum Leaderboard thread.

[JG]

This election makes me glad that Manchin was up for reelection in 2018 instead of this year.  If he was running this year, he would have gotten annihilated.

Yeah, I have a hard time rooting for Manchin. I realize he has to watch his back as a red state Democrat, but half the time he doesn't even side with the party.

Eh. I feel he would stick with the party on any issue where his vote actually matters. I doubt he would have voted for Kavanaugh, had he been the 51st vote.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

Maricopa County is where most of the remaining votes are. I guess it's still helpful to be bearish because idk where in Maricopa these remaining votes are gonna come from, but at this point I'd say Biden has a much, much better chance

[ProudModerate2]

do we know exactly how many ballots are left in each Arizona county right now?  I guess I could extrapolate from the percentages above but would be easier if there was a site that already did this.

(also, I don't think this matters because it's pretty clear Biden is going to win Pennsylvania)

Non Swing Voter,
I want to thank you for giving us number-crunching on the outstanding votes to be counted, for the various states still uncalled.
It's very helpful and gives us an idea (estimate) on what may happen.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/GadiNBC/status/1324187296984231936?s=20

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324185613394956288

[DrScholl]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

When Fox News called Ohio in 2012 much to Karl Rove's ire, Megan Kelly talked to the decision room and they said they look at precincts as part of make a call. The fact that there seems to be nothing left to count in heavily red Yavapai County might be part of their metric.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

Idk, but I saw someone on Twitter pointed out the total number of votes in Biggs and Lesko district are higher than those in Gallego and Stanton districts.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

This election makes me glad that Manchin was up for reelection in 2018 instead of this year.  If he was running this year, he would have gotten annihilated.

Yeah, I have a hard time rooting for Manchin. I realize he has to watch his back as a red state Democrat, but half the time he doesn't even side with the party.

Eh. I feel he would stick with the party on any issue where his vote actually matters. I doubt he would have voted for Kavanaugh, had he been the 51st vote.

Manchin is mirror universe Collins, he’s only a problem when it doesn’t matter.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

This election makes me glad that Manchin was up for reelection in 2018 instead of this year.  If he was running this year, he would have gotten annihilated.

Most deplorables sat out 2018, thank god.

[Calthrina950]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

When Fox News called Ohio in 2008 much to Karl Rove's ire, Megan Kelly talked to the decision room and they said they look at precincts as part of make a call. The fact that there seems to be nothing left to count in heavily red Yavapai County might be part of their metric.

That actually occurred in 2012.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

Idk, but I saw someone on Twitter pointed out the total number of votes in Biggs and Lesko district are higher than those in Gallego and Stanton districts.

That shouldn't be a surprise just based on party reg #s. The big question is Schweikert's.

[Alben Barkley]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

Idk, but I saw someone on Twitter pointed out the total number of votes in Biggs and Lesko district are higher than those in Gallego and Stanton districts.

Total number LEFT or total number COUNTED. If it’s the latter, I feel quite good about it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/GadiNBC/status/1324187296984231936?s=20

You're supposed to do this when your side is still up like this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks_Brothers_riot

[Alben Barkley]

"Fun" fact:

Out of the 30 states Trump won in 2016, 7 of them trended R (as of the vote counts a 9:57 ET on November 4th), while 23 of them trended D.

Of the 20 states Clinton won in 2016, 17 of them trended D and three trended R.

In other words, Dems are gaining everywhere, but much more so in states that are already safe. This is resulting in a close electoral college matchup despite improving their margin in 40 states.

Yayyy even more Democratic voter inefficiency, this is epic!

How do you conclude Dems are gaining "everywhere" after:

- The expectation of a blue wave in the house did not eventuate
- Senate looks likely to stay red
- Biden's supposed 7-8 point lead has ended up being a couple of points (despite spending the largest amount of money on an election campaign in human history)
- Trump had a remarkable results with blacks, latinos and asians (after we were told for four years how racist Trump is).

He’s going to win by 4-5 points (tons of votes left in CA and NY) and Trump didn’t really do well with blacks, just Latinos.