2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[politics_king]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

So they need another 14 from the uncalled races.  NY counts absentees last, so it's probably safe to say all Dems currently leading there will be fine.  That's 207.  PA also counts absentees last, meaning Lamb and Wild should clearly win (Cartwright might still lose because Scranton already counted its absentees).  That's 209.  VA also counts absentees last, so Spanberger's lead will hold.  That's 210.  Bordeaux is clearly going to win GA-07 when Atlanta is done counting absentees, so 211.  IL has a postmark deadline and counts absentees last, so Bustos and Underwood will likely make it.  213.  In Michigan, Stevens and Kildee should be fine with the absentee count.  215.  

So if everything broke strongly against them in the West where we don't know much yet, they could theoretically lose the majority, but something like 225 seems more likely.

Yeah, 226-209 is my current over-under.

Still, it's wild that they did this poorly with a presidential win.  Pelosi really dropped the ball.

It's time for a new Speaker of the House. I'm sure she'll stay at least until 2022 and ideally she'll retire.

[Pericles]

Perdue down to 50.4% statewide.

My back of the napkin figures say if Biden pulls out Georgia, it should knock him under 50.

Biden has to figure out a bold strategy to get Georgians to give us the Senate.

Two Runoff's in Georgia with a unpopular incumbent in Loeffler and God knows what Trump does in the lame duck and if Mitch refuses to do stimulus before the special elections. It could be a perfect storm and the organizing effort in Atlanta has been amazing, I have a friend who does work out there (she's worked with Ossoff before) and I'd be very confident in GOTV for those two elections especially that you can registered new voters for that election by December 7th. What looked like a nightmare may turn into Biden/Harris Administration's favor. It would also be a test for Schumer and his leadership in the Senate.

Perdue outperforming Trump is very concerning though. Democrats can go 2/2, but it will require an absolutely massive effort.

Honestly, it's just a question of turnout. Which groups will be more enthused? I honestly don't know.

I also wonder whether people will find the 'stability' of a Democratic trifecta more compelling than divided government, or if Georgians (especially anti-Trump suburbanites) actually want divided government and a check on Biden. Democrats need to get the messaging right by emphasizing the stuff they can only do with a Democratic Senate such as a proper stimulus, voting rights protections, criminal justice reform and a public option.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

You’re looking at his strategy for the next 4 years. Claim the election was stolen, undermine our electoral process. Hell, Putin doesn’t even need to intervene. Trump is doing all the work for him

[Alben Barkley]

Is it a pretty safe bet to say Peters will cling on in MI? He's currently leading, but not by much.

I THINK so, but it's looking razor thin. James might try for a recount, but doubt it makes up that many votes.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nate Cohn just said that if NYT had a PA needle, it would be all the way to the left on likelihood.

[MasterJedi]

Trump's going to try and run again in 4 years, isn't he? Ugh

[AndyHogan14]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

So they need another 14 from the uncalled races.  NY counts absentees last, so it's probably safe to say all Dems currently leading there will be fine.  That's 207.  PA also counts absentees last, meaning Lamb and Wild should clearly win (Cartwright might still lose because Scranton already counted its absentees).  That's 209.  VA also counts absentees last, so Spanberger's lead will hold.  That's 210.  Bordeaux is clearly going to win GA-07 when Atlanta is done counting absentees, so 211.  IL has a postmark deadline and counts absentees last, so Bustos and Underwood will likely make it.  213.  In Michigan, Stevens and Kildee should be fine with the absentee count.  215.  

So if everything broke strongly against them in the West where we don't know much yet, they could theoretically lose the majority, but something like 225 seems more likely.

Yeah, 226-209 is my current over-under.

Still, it's wild that they did this poorly with a presidential win.  Pelosi really dropped the ball.

It's time for a new Speaker of the House. I'm sure she'll stay at least until 2022 and ideally she'll retire.

I think she was planning on retiring in 2018 if HRC had won...I see no reason why she wouldn't retire heading into the 2022 midterm. Go out on top.

[Hope For A New Era]

Trump's going to try and run again in 4 years, isn't he? Ugh

Not if NY's got him locked up

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You’re looking at his strategy for the next 4 years. Claim the election was stolen, undermine our electoral process. Hell, Putin doesn’t even need to intervene. Trump is doing all the work for him

Maybe you're realizing that we don't need to scapegoat Putin for our terrible domestic politics.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is it a pretty safe bet to say Peters will cling on in MI? He's currently leading, but not by much.

I THINK so, but it's looking razor thin. James might try for a recount, but doubt it makes up that many votes.

Good to know. This race has and continues to give me frights. It seems like the final 4% of the vote should break heavily for Peters,  but you never know

[forsythvoter]

I could see this happening. He also did quite well this election all considering so I imagine he would be the R frontrunner if he chose to run.

Trump's going to try and run again in 4 years, isn't he? Ugh

[politics_king]

Trump's going to try and run again in 4 years, isn't he? Ugh

Let him, but I think the GOP could run a couple different people that could do quite well like Doug Ducey & Brian Sandoval.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Any ideas about what the NPV might ultimately wind up looking like?  It's hard to make any judgment about trends without knowing that.

[Podgy the Bear]

Trump's going to try and run again in 4 years, isn't he? Ugh

Not if NY's got him locked up

Or dead from obesity related complications.

[MasterJedi]

Trump's going to try and run again in 4 years, isn't he? Ugh

Not if NY's got him locked up

Or dead from obesity related complications.

We won't get that lucky...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Trump's going to try and run again in 4 years, isn't he? Ugh

He'd be older than Biden is now.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

306-232  

Map is now favored once again on Predict it with Biden taking all remaining states but NC.

[compucomp]

Any ideas about what the NPV might ultimately wind up looking like?  It's hard to make any judgment about trends without knowing that.

Something like Biden +4-5? Lots of vote in CA, NY, IL, NJ are still out and absentee ballots are still being counted across the country. Both skew heavily Dem.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324130551234727936?s=19

What damage?  Votes being counted?

The bruise on his ego.

Trump has an ego bigger than Siberia.

[brucejoel99]

Any ideas about what the NPV might ultimately wind up looking like?  It's hard to make any judgment about trends without knowing that.

This is from 12 hours ago, so I don't know if any new updates have since served to render this analysis moot, but:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323951519541186561
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323953944016703498

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Any ideas about what the NPV might ultimately wind up looking like?  It's hard to make any judgment about trends without knowing that.

My post-it-note math has Biden with, funnily enough, about an Obama 2012 margin.

[politics_king]

Any ideas about what the NPV might ultimately wind up looking like?  It's hard to make any judgment about trends without knowing that.

With all the votes counted. I would assume 4 to 5 million, but that's my guess.

[Skill and Chance]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

So they need another 14 from the uncalled races.  NY counts absentees last, so it's probably safe to say all Dems currently leading there will be fine.  That's 207.  PA also counts absentees last, meaning Lamb and Wild should clearly win (Cartwright might still lose because Scranton already counted its absentees).  That's 209.  VA also counts absentees last, so Spanberger's lead will hold.  That's 210.  Bordeaux is clearly going to win GA-07 when Atlanta is done counting absentees, so 211.  IL has a postmark deadline and counts absentees last, so Bustos and Underwood will likely make it.  213.  In Michigan, Stevens and Kildee should be fine with the absentee count.  215.  

So if everything broke strongly against them in the West where we don't know much yet, they could theoretically lose the majority, but something like 225 seems more likely.

Yeah, 226-209 is my current over-under.

Still, it's wild that they did this poorly with a presidential win.  Pelosi really dropped the ball.

[Fargobison]

Trump's going to try and run again in 4 years, isn't he? Ugh

He will pretend he wants to, so he can get a few more bucks off the suckers that worship him like a godking.

[MATTROSE94]

Trump's going to try and run again in 4 years, isn't he? Ugh

Let him, but I think the GOP could run a couple different people that could do quite well like Doug Ducey & Brian Sandoval.

Hopefully Donald Trump runs a third-party bid. Then the vote would be split and Joe Biden or Kamala Harris could win the fabled 413 Authoritarian NUT map due to vote splitting.