2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[tjstarling]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Dude, just stop.

Stop what

If you're talking about a state to "save the day" in a now-symbolic presidential election after getting your ass handed to you in the Senate, you've already lost.

Why do you seem to be under the impression that the most powerful man in the world is merely “symbolic” and the Senate is the only thing that matters? Are you aware of what the president actually does and is responsible for? It’s pretty goddamned important. This COVID crisis alone is Exhibit A of how a president’s response to a crisis can make or break a nation, for example.

I swear, the way you talk it's like you think POTUS is just a “head of state” like the Queen of England or something instead of also head of government of the most powerful nation in the world, and Commander-in-Chief of its military and nuclear codes.

Because despite my short term attention span, I can remember four years ago and how a Republican Senate blocked everything Obama wanted to do for the majority of his tenure. McConnell is going to be very dangerous in terms of blocking legislation. Plus, with all of the anti-lockdown hysteria, the Republicans will be suing Biden over every pandemic control measure he tries to implement. With a Court that's majority hacks, they'll find a lot of success there.

Sorry, dude, I know you want to find a silver lining and rejoice that Ice Cream man melted Drumpf, but there really isn't one. There's no more punching bag for the national Democratic Party and so the Republican Party just became a lot more dangerous.

Yup exactly. The Republicans lock in all the gains they made under Trump, while the opposition is lulled asleep. Republicans should be dancing in the streets.

Yep. The only upside for Dems (and the nation) is Trump is likely gone. But he may only be gone for four years. The plus side for Dems is he may continue to be very visible nationally and the face of the Rep party and be an effective foil for Dems. On the other hand, these results may indicate he isn’t that much of an albatross for the Pubs after all. Maybe even a net plus in some circles.

[Horus]

Cook County MN is weird,  voted 56% Clinton and now voting 65% Biden, despite not having anything that really resembles a Dem trending area.   wtf

Vacation homes on Lake Superior, perhaps more of these are now permanent residences due to COVID.

[DrScholl]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Dude, just stop.

Stop what

If you're talking about a state to "save the day" in a now-symbolic presidential election after getting your ass handed to you in the Senate, you've already lost.

Why do you seem to be under the impression that the most powerful man in the world is merely “symbolic” and the Senate is the only thing that matters? Are you aware of what the president actually does and is responsible for? It’s pretty goddamned important. This COVID crisis alone is Exhibit A of how a president’s response to a crisis can make or break a nation, for example.

I swear, the way you talk it's like you think POTUS is just a “head of state” like the Queen of England or something instead of also head of government of the most powerful nation in the world, and Commander-in-Chief of its military and nuclear codes.

Because despite my short term attention span, I can remember four years ago and how a Republican Senate blocked everything Obama wanted to do for the majority of his tenure. McConnell is going to be very dangerous in terms of blocking legislation. Plus, with all of the anti-lockdown hysteria, the Republicans will be suing Biden over every pandemic control measure he tries to implement. With a Court that's majority hacks, they'll find a lot of success there.

Sorry, dude, I know you want to find a silver lining and rejoice that Ice Cream man melted Drumpf, but there really isn't one. There's no more punching bag for the national Democratic Party and so the Republican Party just became a lot more dangerous.

The permanent majority for Republicans was supposed to be sealed after George W. Bush won in 2004, but that didn't happen. Just because Trump is gone does not mean that Trumpism is going away. Republicans are still embracing people who tried to murder governors and run a bus off the road.

[Kuumo]

Latino culture isn't monolithic.

We all pretend it is.

Given that there are two very distinct Latino cultures just inside New Mexico itself, Silent Hunter’s point is well worth reiterating.

And given how disappointing many of the results were, silver linings are all that’s available...

The political and cultural divide between northern and southern New Mexico is particularly stark this year. It mirrors the similar divide among urban and rural non-Hispanic white voters.

[Dr. Frankenstein]

Biden ahead in MI by ~3k votes now.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Cook County MN is weird,  voted 56% Clinton and now voting 65% Biden, despite not having anything that really resembles a Dem trending area.   wtf

Or that he is losing Rockland and Nassau but still ahead in Monmouth and Hunterdon.

[BlueSwan]

Biden ahead in MI by ~3k votes now.

Yup. Came to post this! Very very nice indeed!

[Sir Mohamed]

Morning everyone!

Didn't have much sleep tonight. Well, what can I say? Something we can all agree upon I think: The biggest loser of this election is, by far, polling industry. Maybe Trafalgar and Rassy were on something, I dunno. But the errors, aside from Selzer, are mind boggling. They're more off than in 2016, despite assurances to have improved from last time. Whatever they have done, it didn't work.

Dems definitely have to make an in-dept autopsy, even if Biden wins the WH, which is entirely possible. Hispanics, even non-Cuban, haven't been as strong as expected. I'm not sure this is just attributed to Biden himself. NM-SEN is much closer than it should be. It's closer than CO, which I didn't see coming at all. Generally, these downballot results are weird. It's not a Blue Wave, more of a wash. In the end, I think Pelosi and Schumer have to go during the next congress.

[WMS]

Latino culture isn't monolithic.

We all pretend it is.

Given that there are two very distinct Latino cultures just inside New Mexico itself, Silent Hunter’s point is well worth reiterating.

And given how disappointing many of the results were, silver linings are all that’s available...

The political and cultural divide between northern and southern New Mexico is particularly stark this year. It mirrors the similar divide among urban and rural non-Hispanic white voters.

Two things to note:
1. “Spanish” Latinos = North; “Mexican” Latinos = South; in broad strokes.
2. Much larger numbers of non-citizen Latinos among the Mexicans.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Biden took the lead in Michigan.

[DaleCooper]

Morning everyone!

Didn't have much sleep tonight. Well, what can I say? Something we can all agree upon I think: The biggest loser of this election is, by far, polling industry. Maybe Trafalgar and Rassy were on something, I dunno. But the errors, aside from Selzer, are mind boggling. They're more off than in 2016, despite assurances to have improved from last time. Whatever they have done, it didn't work.

Dems definitely have to make an in-dept autopsy, even if Biden wins the WH, which is entirely possible. Hispanics, even non-Cuban, haven't been as strong as expected. I'm not sure this is just attributed to Biden himself. NM-SEN is much closer than it should be. It's closer than CO, which I didn't see coming at all. Generally, these downballot results are weird. It's not a Blue Wave, more of a wash. In the end, I think Pelosi and Schumer have to go during the next congress.

I agree. I've been thinking for a long time that the Democratic Party and most of its state parties would benefit from a rebranding of sorts. I think this would help a lot even in solidly Republican states.

[Kuumo]

Biden took the lead in Michigan.

Yes! Watching it right now on CNN.

[Inmate Trump]

Morning everyone!

Didn't have much sleep tonight. Well, what can I say? Something we can all agree upon I think: The biggest loser of this election is, by far, polling industry. Maybe Trafalgar and Rassy were on something, I dunno. But the errors, aside from Selzer, are mind boggling. They're more off than in 2016, despite assurances to have improved from last time. Whatever they have done, it didn't work.

Dems definitely have to make an in-dept autopsy, even if Biden wins the WH, which is entirely possible. Hispanics, even non-Cuban, haven't been as strong as expected. I'm not sure this is just attributed to Biden himself. NM-SEN is much closer than it should be. It's closer than CO, which I didn't see coming at all. Generally, these downballot results are weird. It's not a Blue Wave, more of a wash. In the end, I think Pelosi and Schumer have to go during the next congress.

I kind of question whatever "improvements" they were supposed to have made in their polling methods between 2016 and now.  I don't think it's something as simple as "shy Trump" support.

In a weird way, it kind of makes 2024 more "fun" in that I, for one, will refuse to believe any polls in that cycle.  Every swing state will be a complete unknown and maybe I won't be as crushed then.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

[Dr. Frankenstein]

Biden ahead in MI by ~3k votes now.

25k now. I think it only goes downhill for Trump from now on.

Peters up by 18k.

[n1240]

Wayne still has a lot of juice, along with healthy absentee chunks remaining in Kent and Kalamazoo. Definitely don't think Michigan will be that close in the end.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

PRESIDENT BIDEN

[SunSt0rm]

I don't think Michigan will be super close, but that Biden will take it with a couple of points

[Inmate Trump]

I wish NYT had their needle on all the swing states.

With the exception of Georgia, they picked the wrong states to put a needle on.

[rosin]

Biden ahead in MI by ~3k votes now.

He is now leading by ~25k!

Peters is also leading by ~1250 votes according to DDHQ

[Horus]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

I don't think I wanna know...

[Beet]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

He has the machismo thing going for him. I will get a lot of sh*t for saying this, but Biden ran a very feminine campaign, advocating mask wearing, not even doing GOTV, etc. It doesn't play in working class minority neighborhoods. Can you think of a less feminine music genre than rap?

[n1240]

Biden ahead in MI by ~3k votes now.

He is now leading by ~25k!

Peters is also leading by ~1250 votes according to DDHQ

If you're using DDHQ, they're lagging behind because they're missing results in Monroe County which is a modestly pro-Trump county.

[VAR]

Why is Haley Stevens still trailing her opponent by 5%?

[TopShelfGoal]

The term "latinx" needs to never be uttered by another Democratic politician or anyone affiliated with the Democratic party ever again. It has always felt weird to me that white liberals were imposing a term on a minority community which the the minority community seems to have no interest in.