2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Diabolical Materialism]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

He has the machismo thing going for him. I will get a lot of sh*t for saying this, but Biden ran a very feminine campaign, advocating mask wearing, not even doing GOTV, etc. It doesn't play in working class minority neighborhoods. Can you think of a less feminine music genre than rap?

Dude what are you talking about

[Dr. Frankenstein]

I wish NYT had their needle on all the swing states.

With the exception of Georgia, they picked the wrong states to put a needle on.

I think it made sense for them to choose FL, GA and NC. They count relatively fast, and a clear Biden win in 2 of 3 would have meant that they could call the election early.

[Horus]

Why is Haley Stevens still trailing her opponent by 5%?

She pissed a lot of people off with her super pro gun control advocacy. I think she'll win because these are the suburbs but she'll run behind Biden and Peters.

[Beet]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

He has the machismo thing going for him. I will get a lot of sh*t for saying this, but Biden ran a very feminine campaign, advocating mask wearing, not even doing GOTV, etc. It doesn't play in working class minority neighborhoods. Can you think of a less feminine music genre than rap?

Dude what are you talking about

Eh, it should be self-evident. The fact that female rappers didn't breakthrough until the mid-2010s whereas a white male rapper became the biggest on the planet as early as 2000 should tell you something.

[Inmate Trump]

I wish NYT had their needle on all the swing states.

With the exception of Georgia, they picked the wrong states to put a needle on.

I think it made sense for them to choose FL, GA and NC. They count relatively fast, and a clear Biden win in 2 of 3 would have meant that they could call the election early.

I guess I just don't see why they didn't do it for all the swing states.  Why just choose three?

[ultraviolet]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

He has the machismo thing going for him. I will get a lot of sh*t for saying this, but Biden ran a very feminine campaign, advocating mask wearing, not even doing GOTV, etc. It doesn't play in working class minority neighborhoods. Can you think of a less feminine music genre than rap?

Dude what are you talking about

Eh, it should be self-evident. The fact that female rappers didn't breakthrough until the mid-2010s whereas a white male rapper became the biggest on the planet as early as 2000 should tell you something.

But what does this have to do with anything?

[Diabolical Materialism]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

He has the machismo thing going for him. I will get a lot of sh*t for saying this, but Biden ran a very feminine campaign, advocating mask wearing, not even doing GOTV, etc. It doesn't play in working class minority neighborhoods. Can you think of a less feminine music genre than rap?

Dude what are you talking about

Eh, it should be self-evident. The fact that female rappers didn't breakthrough until the mid-2010s whereas a white male rapper became the biggest on the planet as early as 2000 should tell you something.

I think that defining a music genre by some kind of essential "maleness" or "femaleness" doesn't make much sense. How long did it take for rock music to have a major female star? Same question for jazz? Or bluegrass?

[Storebought]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

He has the machismo thing going for him. I will get a lot of sh*t for saying this, but Biden ran a very feminine campaign, advocating mask wearing, not even doing GOTV, etc. It doesn't play in working class minority neighborhoods. Can you think of a less feminine music genre than rap?

There is much disagreeable about this post .. but I can say that I get your point in one place: Biden/Harris pulling out campaigning in TX because of the bus attack did make the ticket look weak.

[MasterJedi]

AZ, WI, NV and MI means while it's close Trump can't really do much damage imo compared to what he could theoretically do in PA and GA.

[Horus]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

He has the machismo thing going for him. I will get a lot of sh*t for saying this, but Biden ran a very feminine campaign, advocating mask wearing, not even doing GOTV, etc. It doesn't play in working class minority neighborhoods. Can you think of a less feminine music genre than rap?

Dude what are you talking about

Eh, it should be self-evident. The fact that female rappers didn't breakthrough until the mid-2010s whereas a white male rapper became the biggest on the planet as early as 2000 should tell you something.

You know nothing about hip hop. Missy Elliott had a number one hit in 2003 with Work It. Salt N Pepa were doing huge things in the 1980s.

[BlueSwan]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

He has the machismo thing going for him. I will get a lot of sh*t for saying this, but Biden ran a very feminine campaign, advocating mask wearing, not even doing GOTV, etc. It doesn't play in working class minority neighborhoods. Can you think of a less feminine music genre than rap?

I don't think Biden running a "feminine" campaign has got anything much to do with it, but I totally agree with you about Trump's macho appeal. This factor should not be underestimated. There really isn't much rational thought behind voting for Trump for the VAST majority of Trump voters, I believe. Sure, they can provide rationalizations, but I don't think a single of those rationalizations are the true reason why they vote for him.

This is also why the educated elite have never been able to understand why people would vote for Trump since the educated elite typically finds ultra macho behaviour primitive and off-putting. Trumps behaviour is a feature, not a bug. This is also why it is far from certain that a DeSantis or Cotton or whoever would be able to carry the torch for Trumpism going forward.

[Kuumo]

I wish NYT had their needle on all the swing states.

With the exception of Georgia, they picked the wrong states to put a needle on.

I think it made sense for them to choose FL, GA and NC. They count relatively fast, and a clear Biden win in 2 of 3 would have meant that they could call the election early.

I guess I just don't see why they didn't do it for all the swing states.  Why just choose three?

I think it's because the other states count slower and have less predictable counting patterns. The algorithm for the needle would have predicted Trump landslides in WI, MI, and PA.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Looks like Biden's election is guaranteed.

Congratulations.

Although, he's pretty much going to be a lame duck if the GOP holds the Senate, which looks increasingly likely.. no court packing.  

[forsythvoter]

For what it's worth, I hope both parties put more attention and resources on GA instead of our neighbor to the south. Turns out we're more swingable!

I wish NYT had their needle on all the swing states.

With the exception of Georgia, they picked the wrong states to put a needle on.

I think it made sense for them to choose FL, GA and NC. They count relatively fast, and a clear Biden win in 2 of 3 would have meant that they could call the election early.

I guess I just don't see why they didn't do it for all the swing states.  Why just choose three?

[DaleCooper]

I wish NYT had their needle on all the swing states.

With the exception of Georgia, they picked the wrong states to put a needle on.

I think it made sense for them to choose FL, GA and NC. They count relatively fast, and a clear Biden win in 2 of 3 would have meant that they could call the election early.

I guess I just don't see why they didn't do it for all the swing states.  Why just choose three?

They must've underestimated how fast the vote would come in in MI and WI.

[BigSerg]

it's over


Congratulations president-elect Joe Biden!

[Suburbia]

The term "latinx" needs to never be uttered by another Democratic politician or anyone affiliated with the Democratic party ever again. It has always felt weird to me that white liberals were imposing a term on a minority community which the the minority community seems to have no interest in.

This. Latinx is a stupid word

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

So what is the probability Trump can still win now?

[MaxQue]

The term "latinx" needs to never be uttered by another Democratic politician or anyone affiliated with the Democratic party ever again. It has always felt weird to me that white liberals were imposing a term on a minority community which the the minority community seems to have no interest in.

This. Latinx is a stupid word

They can still use the much better "Latinas and Latinos".

[͘]

So what is the probability Trump can still win now?

I'm giving him a 40% chance to win right now. I don't think Biden is DOOMED just yet.

[Suburbia]

Florida is still a swing state. Its not Missouri yet. New Yorkers move there every day, a Democrat can win there in 2024 or 2028

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

How worried should we be about a faithless elector if Biden wins 270-268?

[Ancestral Republican]

The term "latinx" needs to never be uttered by another Democratic politician or anyone affiliated with the Democratic party ever again. It has always felt weird to me that white liberals were imposing a term on a minority community which the the minority community seems to have no interest in.

Whatever your feelings about it, it likely had very little to do with this election result so I'm not sure why you're posting this.

[Dr. Frankenstein]

Biden ahead in MI by ~3k votes now.

25k now. I think it only goes downhill for Trump from now on.

Peters up by 18k.

30k now. Peters leads by 22k. This is my last update, the trend is clear by now.

[BlueSwan]

I'm super tired so I might have mentioned this before, but the way this result is looking right now is pretty much a dream result for moderate republicans. They get rid of Trump and at least have a chance at taking the party in a direction away from Trumpism, while holding the senate and effectively making Biden a lame duck president. On the other hand, it could just pave the way for Alex Jones 2024 or even Q himself.