2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Tekken_Guy]

Can we talk about New Jersey for a second? A nearly *10%* shift since 2016. Biden +23 right now. Wow.

The whole Revolt of the suburbs thing may not have been false, at least in the Northeast

Seems to have been pretty real pretty much everywhere. That’s why Biden can win Georgia.

And yet he’s struggling to win states that Trump barely won last time?

[lfromnj]

Can we talk about New Jersey for a second? A nearly *10%* shift since 2016. Biden +23 right now. Wow.

No because it would be as stupid as talking about New York shifting 10 points to the right, we don't have enough >90% in counties.  I did mention Nassau at 88% in  being Trump +2 which was interesting but I would still like to wait.

[Inmate Trump]

If this goes on for days, as it’s looking to, expect the Supreme Court to be involved eventually.

Trump isn’t going to make this easy.  Even if it looks like we’re there, Trump will challenge it and the Supreme Court may decide in his favor.

My thoughts as well.

Biden needed a court proof victory, in other words he had to lock up FL or NC early on. That hasn't happened so Trump has a path until the EC votes.

Ah so this is the next stage of doomerism then.

Trump using the courts to win has been my position all along.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout (absolute numbers) breaks 140 million, more than in any other US election.

Biden becomes the candidate with the highest number of raw votes, surpassing Obama 2008.

Just shy of 70 million.

[Crumpets]

Quick question since I'm just now getting back online - anyone know the story with the NYT needle saying Biden is favored in Georgia? Is that legit or is there some weird data oddity somewhere?

It's legit, but it is realistically a pure tossup now. I'm certainly not counting on it. Hedging my bets on the AZ/NV/WI/MI route now!

Man, if Biden wins AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA, and GA, my prediction would only be one state off (NC), even though I got almost everything else completely wrong about the election.

[Alben Barkley]

Can we talk about New Jersey for a second? A nearly *10%* shift since 2016. Biden +23 right now. Wow.

The whole Revolt of the suburbs thing may not have been false, at least in the Northeast

Seems to have been pretty real pretty much everywhere. That’s why Biden can win Georgia.

And yet he’s struggling to win states that Trump barely won last time?

Suburban shifts are there too, it’s just that Trump also got a slight rural shift in some places plus some gains with minorities (especially Latinos). Suburban shifts seem to be outweighing that though.

[lfromnj]

Where is Lurker? Is he... safe? Is he... all right?

Shut up, you hack. The Senate is gone and you're still trying to run victory laps. Celebrate the tiny, narrow victory of Mr. Electable all you want, but this was not a successful night by any stretch of the imagination for the Democratic Party.

Oh are you his alt? Not surprising.

The Senate was never as safe a bet as the presidency either BTW and for reasons already explained, was not as important. You can cry about the Senate if you want. I’m gonna be happy the worst president in history will be ejected, likely by ironically the same EV margin he won by in 2016. (Not that narrow, especially since Biden will actually win the popular vote by a decent margin). I’m also gonna make fun of people for calling me things like “hack” when they got all smug and insufferable earlier about their terrible predictions that are now falling apart.

You mean like you thought it would either be 1980 or 1932?

You mean like Elliot county could go D

Kenton/Campbell do go D, and Franklin will easily go D?

[Inmate Trump]

Biden actually has to get a lead in MI, ya know.  So far he hasn’t.

[Alben Barkley]

If this goes on for days, as it’s looking to, expect the Supreme Court to be involved eventually.

Trump isn’t going to make this easy.  Even if it looks like we’re there, Trump will challenge it and the Supreme Court may decide in his favor.

My thoughts as well.

Biden needed a court proof victory, in other words he had to lock up FL or NC early on. That hasn't happened so Trump has a path until the EC votes.

Ah so this is the next stage of doomerism then.

Trump using the courts to win has been my position all along.

But nobody's explained just how the hell that would happen. Especially after recent SCOTUS rulings very strongly suggesting otherwise.

[Tender Branson]

Quick question since I'm just now getting back online - anyone know the story with the NYT needle saying Biden is favored in Georgia? Is that legit or is there some weird data oddity somewhere?

It's legit, but it is realistically a pure tossup now. I'm certainly not counting on it. Hedging my bets on the AZ/NV/WI/MI route now!

Man, if Biden wins AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA, and GA, my prediction would only be one state off (NC), even though I got almost everything else completely wrong about the election.

Me too.

[Silent Hunter]

Biden actually has to get a lead in MI, ya know.  So far he hasn’t.

He's only 2k off at the moment.

[Tekken_Guy]

Can we talk about New Jersey for a second? A nearly *10%* shift since 2016. Biden +23 right now. Wow.

The whole Revolt of the suburbs thing may not have been false, at least in the Northeast

Seems to have been pretty real pretty much everywhere. That’s why Biden can win Georgia.

And yet he’s struggling to win states that Trump barely won last time?

Suburban shifts are there too, it’s just that Trump also got a slight rural shift in some places plus some gains with minorities (especially Latinos). Suburban shifts seem to be outweighing that though.

Really? Ohio and Iowa barely budged.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How about those of you sniping at each other give it a rest for the day?  Emotions are high and I'm sure most of us are tired.

[Dr. Frankenstein]

A victory in GA, even only by a hair, would basically put an end to all the speculation about Trump bringing the result to the SCOTUS. I’m genuinely disappointed that Biden couldn’t muster a narrow win in NC as well.

[Alben Barkley]

Can we talk about New Jersey for a second? A nearly *10%* shift since 2016. Biden +23 right now. Wow.

The whole Revolt of the suburbs thing may not have been false, at least in the Northeast

Seems to have been pretty real pretty much everywhere. That’s why Biden can win Georgia.

And yet he’s struggling to win states that Trump barely won last time?

Suburban shifts are there too, it’s just that Trump also got a slight rural shift in some places plus some gains with minorities (especially Latinos). Suburban shifts seem to be outweighing that though.

Really? Ohio and Iowa barely budged.

We saw suburban shifts there too, in places like Delaware County. Just seems to have largely been canceled out.

[BlueSwan]

If this goes on for days, as it’s looking to, expect the Supreme Court to be involved eventually.

Trump isn’t going to make this easy.  Even if it looks like we’re there, Trump will challenge it and the Supreme Court may decide in his favor.

My thoughts as well.

Biden needed a court proof victory, in other words he had to lock up FL or NC early on. That hasn't happened so Trump has a path until the EC votes.

Ah so this is the next stage of doomerism then.

Trump using the courts to win has been my position all along.

Yeah, I have noticed that. While I generally share your concern, it is really hard to see what Trump's case here is. He would usually have to rely on actually leading the EC race when attempting to stop the count, but shortly he will probably be behind in the EC race (Michigan still needs to turn), at which point "stopping the count" really makes no sense for him. I'm sure they will try to invalidate mail-in-ballots through other means though, so yeah, it ain't over till it's over.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Can we talk about New Jersey for a second? A nearly *10%* shift since 2016. Biden +23 right now. Wow.

No because it would be as stupid as talking about New York shifting 10 points to the right, we don't have enough >90% in counties.

Yup.  NYT has Biden up in Monmouth County by about eleven points.  Biden is not winning Monmouth County.  

[philly09]

Biden actually has to get a lead in MI, ya know.  So far he hasn’t.

He's only 2k off at the moment.

Pretty sure DDHQ is behind. Trump had 2.409m with Biden at nearly 2.380m

[Inmate Trump]

If this goes on for days, as it’s looking to, expect the Supreme Court to be involved eventually.

Trump isn’t going to make this easy.  Even if it looks like we’re there, Trump will challenge it and the Supreme Court may decide in his favor.

My thoughts as well.

Biden needed a court proof victory, in other words he had to lock up FL or NC early on. That hasn't happened so Trump has a path until the EC votes.

Ah so this is the next stage of doomerism then.

Trump using the courts to win has been my position all along.

But nobody's explained just how the hell that would happen. Especially after recent SCOTUS rulings very strongly suggesting otherwise.

I have no idea how he’d do it.

But I do know he has a team of lawyers already cooking up something.  If you don’t know this too, you haven’t been paying attention the last four years.

[Blair]

The Wisconsin Democrat party deserves a lot of credit.

They've worked their asses off since 2016, won important state wide races & hopefully have done just enough to save this.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

How about those of you sniping at each other give it a rest for the day?  Emotions are high and I'm sure most of us are tired.

Just let the memes soothe you.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1323813979203010562?s=19

This is ten, eleven hours old.  GA is Biden 64% at the present.

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1323813979203010562?s=19

Those are old. They have Biden ever so slightly favoured in GA now.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1323813979203010562?s=19

Those are old. They have Biden ever so slightly favoured in GA now.

Deleted, sorry.

[Tender Branson]

I dumped 50€ on Trump ending up with between 240-269 EV on a betting site.

For a reward of 450€.

Hopefully Biden does NOT win GA !

Biden winning back the Blue Wall is just fine.