2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Quick question since I'm just now getting back online - anyone know the story with the NYT needle saying Biden is favored in Georgia? Is that legit or is there some weird data oddity somewhere?

No, it's somewhat conceivable (though I don't expect it to happen).  There's still quite a few votes left in the Atlanta metro region that could (COULD) give Biden a tiny tiny lead -- plus most of the rurals have already reported.  

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1323967408311279616

[BlueSwan]

Jesus, what wasteland of Atlas did I wake up to?

By the way, huge props to whomever is responsible for keeping the site up.

yeah, can be take a minute to appreciate this site being up all of election night (at least, I didn't have any issues). Very impressive indeed!

[wbrocks67]

Thank you to the morning crew here. You are way more substantial to talk to then the night crowd

[Jens]

Quick question since I'm just now getting back online - anyone know the story with the NYT needle saying Biden is favored in Georgia? Is that legit or is there some weird data oddity somewhere?

Most of the mail vote is from Atlanta and heavy democratic - personally I’ll wait and see the actual count...

[BlueSwan]

Quick question since I'm just now getting back online - anyone know the story with the NYT needle saying Biden is favored in Georgia? Is that legit or is there some weird data oddity somewhere?

It's legit, but it is realistically a pure tossup now. I'm certainly not counting on it. Hedging my bets on the AZ/NV/WI/MI route now!

[Silent Hunter]

Thank you to the morning crew here. You are way more substantial to talk to then the night crowd

Probably as they're less sleep-deprived.

[wbrocks67]

Nate Cohn also brings up a good point - we don't know if the results in PA (or the anticipated ones) include any ballots in a drop box yesterday too, or if those are being counted/processed today.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Biden is cooking with gas now.

• WI is nearly done with Biden winning.
• MI is clearly on track for Biden winning.
• GA has started reporting again.

The rate of change towards Biden has been spectacular in the last 2 hours for WI and MI.

WI - Biden up by 20,700 (97% counted)

Of the remaining ~102,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 41,000 of them. (39.9%)

MI - Biden down by 27,400 (84% counted)

Of the remaining ~792,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 410,000 of them. (51.7%)

GA - Biden down by 103,000 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~411,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 257,000 of them. (62.6%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining~ 283,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 180,000 of them. (63.5%)

PA - Biden down by 678,000 (74% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,867,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 1,272,000 of them. (67.7%)

Biden needs to win 2 (WI, MI) of the above 5 states above and win NV to win the Presidency with an EC vote of 270 exactly to Trump with 268.

[Inmate Trump]

If this goes on for days, as it’s looking to, expect the Supreme Court to be involved eventually.

Trump isn’t going to make this easy.  Even if it looks like we’re there, Trump will challenge it and the Supreme Court may decide in his favor.

[DaleCooper]

Nate Cohn also brings up a good point - we don't know if the results in PA (or the anticipated ones) include any ballots in a drop box yesterday too, or if those are being counted/processed today.

I would assume that's today since those are basically mail-in votes as well for all intents and purposes.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1323967408311279616

Trump has since increased his lead to 27,398.

[Horus]

If this goes on for days, as it’s looking to, expect the Supreme Court to be involved eventually.

Trump isn’t going to make this easy.  Even if it looks like we’re there, Trump will challenge it and the Supreme Court may decide in his favor.

My thoughts as well.

Biden needed a court proof victory, in other words he had to lock up FL or NC early on. That hasn't happened so Trump has a path until the EC votes.

[ObamaMichael]

I think it's safe to say that Biden will win, now that MI and WI look safe. Only unnerving thing remaining is Nevada. Let's pull of some wins in PA and GA!

[Badger]

Can we talk about New Jersey for a second? A nearly *10%* shift since 2016. Biden +23 right now. Wow.

The whole Revolt of the suburbs thing may not have been false, at least in the Northeast

[BlueSwan]

If this goes on for days, as it’s looking to, expect the Supreme Court to be involved eventually.

Trump isn’t going to make this easy.  Even if it looks like we’re there, Trump will challenge it and the Supreme Court may decide in his favor.

Except his problem is that if he wants to "stop the count", then he'd likely stop it with Biden leading in AZ/NV/WI/MI, which doesn't work for him.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1323967408311279616

Trump has since increased his lead to 27,398.

They're using DDHQ which is missing Monroe County, while other sources which is where you got the 27,398 from have it.

[Alben Barkley]

If this goes on for days, as it’s looking to, expect the Supreme Court to be involved eventually.

Trump isn’t going to make this easy.  Even if it looks like we’re there, Trump will challenge it and the Supreme Court may decide in his favor.

My thoughts as well.

Biden needed a court proof victory, in other words he had to lock up FL or NC early on. That hasn't happened so Trump has a path until the EC votes.

Ah so this is the next stage of doomerism then.

[Podgy the Bear]

If this goes on for days, as it’s looking to, expect the Supreme Court to be involved eventually.

Trump isn’t going to make this easy.  Even if it looks like we’re there, Trump will challenge it and the Supreme Court may decide in his favor.

And what would his challenge be?

[Alben Barkley]

Can we talk about New Jersey for a second? A nearly *10%* shift since 2016. Biden +23 right now. Wow.

The whole Revolt of the suburbs thing may not have been false, at least in the Northeast

Seems to have been pretty real pretty much everywhere. That’s why Biden can win Georgia.

[Alben Barkley]

If this goes on for days, as it’s looking to, expect the Supreme Court to be involved eventually.

Trump isn’t going to make this easy.  Even if it looks like we’re there, Trump will challenge it and the Supreme Court may decide in his favor.

And what would his challenge be?

“All mail-in votes are fraud and we must stop counting them!”

Yeah, good luck with that one.

[wbrocks67]

Trump only up 5K in MI, per DDHQ

[Horus]

If this goes on for days, as it’s looking to, expect the Supreme Court to be involved eventually.

Trump isn’t going to make this easy.  Even if it looks like we’re there, Trump will challenge it and the Supreme Court may decide in his favor.

My thoughts as well.

Biden needed a court proof victory, in other words he had to lock up FL or NC early on. That hasn't happened so Trump has a path until the EC votes.

Ah so this is the next stage of doomerism then.

I have been saying for several weeks that if all votes are counted, Biden will win. Nothing I'm saying is new. Unlike you I don't shift the goalposts from a 413 victory to a narrow win with no Senate and then still act smug.

[BigSerg]

If this goes on for days, as it’s looking to, expect the Supreme Court to be involved eventually.

Trump isn’t going to make this easy.  Even if it looks like we’re there, Trump will challenge it and the Supreme Court may decide in his favor.

My thoughts as well.

Biden needed a court proof victory, in other words he had to lock up FL or NC early on. That hasn't happened so Trump has a path until the EC votes.

Ah so this is the next stage of doomerism then.

Mods pls???

[afleitch]

I'm enjoying the morning shift.

Can I just say how good this site has been at giving a good narrative of what's happening to help explain it to those around me.