CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Matty]

The Exit poll looks to be off when it comes to Latinos.

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1437994304052543490?s=20

you have to wait and see how the EDAY votes look.

[Matty]

The problem is that the actually existing Republican Party in CA opposes these things. Many liberals do too of course, which is why California is in the situation it's in. But the only movement for weakening zoning laws and expanding the housing supply is coming from Democrats.

Yes, I agree with Lief entirely. It's not just that I don't believe that Republicans can fix these problems; it's that there's no reason to think that they even want to.

I definitely agree. It's disappointing. THese same people claim to be "free market fans".

[Non Swing Voter]

I've seen enough.  GOP has absolutely no shot in NJ or VA based on how educated white voters just voted.  Dare I say both races could be 10 point + margins.  Both states are demographically somewhat similar to CA and have a ton of college educated whites.

[Matty]

Here's an interesting thing I would like to see polled (if possible)

of the Californians who moved out of CA since the 2020 election, what % would favor the recall?

[Хahar 🤔]

It was smart of Democrats to tie Larry Elder so close to Donald Trump.  

I really don't think they did this nearly as much as people seem to be suggesting. His image showed up in ads, sure, but all the messaging was to stop the Republican recall; that was the slogan on all the signs and what was constantly repeated in ads. The connection there was largely implicit, but it was more than enough.

[Alben Barkley]

Holy crap!

We REALLY don't have Nixon to kick around anymore!

[Matty]

LMAO, is california going to report all its votes before the boston mayor race?

the hell is going on over there?

[Non Swing Voter]

It's really annoying that all the sites with election results maps have really tiny map graphics that you can't seem to zoom in on.

[Storr]

Holy crap!

No is also leading in Placer County! Yes is leading in Butte though, a 2020 Biden County. All other counties are currently aligned Yes/No with how they voted in 2020 (Trump/Biden), according to CNN.

[Matty]

Just wanted to say to NON swing voter, alban barkley, and others in the thread, I have actually enjoyed the convo the last few pages.

It's nice to be able to post in an atlas election results thread without it crashing.

I believe the 2014 midterm thread crashed as did 2016.

anyway, y'all have a great night

I am going to bed early since I have a very very early day to start tomorrow.

[Sestak]

My final prediction is now No +19%, which is up from no +14% last week. Would this be a reasonable +19% map or should I tweak it a little bit. I'm not sure how OC, Riverside and Fresno will exactly vote for, so I guess they will vote yes by under a 2-3% margin.

Man, My prediction was quite off on the margin and in some counties as well. Oh well.

No +19% seems pretty good. There is no ED vote in yet, I think your SoCal predictions will be on point.

OC mathematically does not have the votes out to flip to Yes even if the remainder is 100% for recall. Given Riverside margin atm I don't think it flips either.

Are you sure about that, NYT has OC at 58% No with 64% of the vote in. That is, 37% No, 27% Yes of the eventual vote far. According to that, Yes would need about 64% of the eventual vote for 50/50. Now that I did the math, I think OC will be +2 No, but it's not mathematically impossible.

Saw somewhere that the total in-person vote in OC was 103K. Which would mean NYT is overestimating the remainder.


Actually, CA SoS is showing OC as all in with 58% no, so...lol

[South Dakota Democrat]

A possible preview of the new Fox Election Desk as they haven't called the race yet.

That's a shame. I honestly respected them for having the guts to make that AZ call last year, and Murdoch for sticking by it despite calls from a hysterical Trump. Caving to the mob is pathetic even by their standards. Looks like whatever shred of journalistic integrity Fox had left might be gone.

They were clearly premature in making that call, though.  Even though the end result ended up being right, there is absolutely no way that they expected it to be a 10,000 vote margin.  Their decision desk head even said that they were calling it because they expected Trump to get only 44% of the remaining vote (and Biden was already leading at that time by around 8 points, so they expected Biden's lead of 8 points to increase).

[MT Treasurer]

The problem is that the actually existing Republican Party in CA opposes these things. Many liberals do too of course, which is why California is in the situation it's in. But the only movement for weakening zoning laws and expanding the housing supply is coming from Democrats.

Reaganism is dead, and the sooner (CA and non-CA) Republicans and those in leadership realize it, the better. All the workers' party/populist rhetoric is fruitless if the entire party apparatus has no interest in following through on much if any of it. Trump himself governed more like a Reaganite than he ever let on during the 2016 campaign, and I do think it cost him in 2020 (especially in New England, but also in the Midwest). Even if Republicans have a good year in 2022 (more likely than not), the party really needs to reinvent itself for 2024 and the long run.

[Alben Barkley]

A possible preview of the new Fox Election Desk as they haven't called the race yet.

That's a shame. I honestly respected them for having the guts to make that AZ call last year, and Murdoch for sticking by it despite calls from a hysterical Trump. Caving to the mob is pathetic even by their standards. Looks like whatever shred of journalistic integrity Fox had left might be gone.

They were clearly premature in making that call, though.  Even though the end result ended up being right, there is absolutely no way that they expected it to be a 10,000 vote margin.  Their decision desk head even said that they were calling it because they expected Trump to get only 44% of the remaining vote (and Biden was already leading at that time by around 8 points, so they expected Biden's lead of 8 points to increase).

Regardless of how you feel about the math of the call, what I mean was I'm glad they had the integrity to stick to it despite immense pressure from the highest levels. Showed there was SOME element of the newsroom that would not cave to partisan demands that just might not be there anymore.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Statistically there have to be some No/Elder voters, I wonder who they are.

Do you have to vote on the first question to vote on the 2nd though?

No.

[emailking]

A possible preview of the new Fox Election Desk as they haven't called the race yet.

That's a shame. I honestly respected them for having the guts to make that AZ call last year, and Murdoch for sticking by it despite calls from a hysterical Trump. Caving to the mob is pathetic even by their standards. Looks like whatever shred of journalistic integrity Fox had left might be gone.

They were clearly premature in making that call, though.  Even though the end result ended up being right, there is absolutely no way that they expected it to be a 10,000 vote margin.  Their decision desk head even said that they were calling it because they expected Trump to get only 44% of the remaining vote (and Biden was already leading at that time by around 8 points, so they expected Biden's lead of 8 points to increase).

They expected the lead to increase but the point was that Trump gaining enough to overcome Biden's lead was outside of the 99.5% confidence interval. Trump gaining was not.

[Alben Barkley]

LMAO, is california going to report all its votes before the boston mayor race?

the hell is going on over there?

Maybe they learned from the slow-reporting debacles of their last few elections? That would certainly be nice!

[South Dakota Democrat]

A possible preview of the new Fox Election Desk as they haven't called the race yet.

That's a shame. I honestly respected them for having the guts to make that AZ call last year, and Murdoch for sticking by it despite calls from a hysterical Trump. Caving to the mob is pathetic even by their standards. Looks like whatever shred of journalistic integrity Fox had left might be gone.

They were clearly premature in making that call, though.  Even though the end result ended up being right, there is absolutely no way that they expected it to be a 10,000 vote margin.  Their decision desk head even said that they were calling it because they expected Trump to get only 44% of the remaining vote (and Biden was already leading at that time by around 8 points, so they expected Biden's lead of 8 points to increase).

They expected the lead to increase but the point was that Trump gaining enough to overcome Biden's lead was outside of the 99.5% confidence interval. Trump gaining was not.

Maybe, but their benchmark was clearly flawed so the 99.5% threshold was irrelevant in this case.  They didn't account for the fact that the remaining mail/early votes were late-arriving and were thus more similar to election day than to the rest of the early vote.

[Non Swing Voter]

Man, I love California.  Sane voters.  Natural beauty.  Pulls its weight and then some in terms of the economy and paying taxes (unlike Texas and Florida).  Great politics.  Just a great state overall.  They really should have 10 senators given how much they contribute to this country.

[gf20202]

Here's an interesting thing I would like to see polled (if possible)

of the Californians who moved out of CA since the 2020 election, what % would favor the recall?

Yes, why not just burn more money on thought exercises?

CA population in 2020 was 39.538 and now it's estimated to be 39.7 and we just had a recall election where like 10 million people voted, but definitely need to know what like 20k people, who wouldn't all be voting anyway, would think about a state they no longer live in for a series of complex reasons, including republicans passing a tax bill that limited salt tax deductions.

Republicans cost me personally 6k with their tax bill, but I choose to stay because I like it here and I can afford too but I guess my opinion and the opinions of ten million voters should matter less to you than a truly infinitesimal people who left in the past ten months. Like people saw that Biden won and immediately fled the state, that's a take.

[Vosem]

These margins are gonna tighten as non early ballots are counted right?   Still looks atrocious for the GOP but what is it looking like?  22 point win for Newsom?

Depends. Under a 2020-style shift in the post-count, maybe as much as 26. If you believe exit polling and that there was less liberal enthusiasm for keeping Newsom than for booting Trump, then something like 18-20.

I don't think the current mail-in result is inconsistent with the exit polls being right, and if the exit polls are right then we're probably currently in a R+low national generic ballot. At the same time, we don't really know what the votes that are still out are going to show.

(Also, how to appraise this election depends on if the relevant comparison is Trump '20 -- who lost by 30 points in CA while being down 5 nationally -- congressional Republicans in 2020 -- who lost by 32 points in CA while being down 3 nationally, though they left some seats uncontested -- or Cox in 2018 -- who lost by 24 in CA while the generic ballot was D+8.

Depending on which of these numbers you use, for Republicans to be winning nationally they may need to come within 16 points in CA, which they're not doing, or maybe 29 is sufficient, which they've certainly blown past. Also, of course, Republicans don't need to win nationally to take the Presidency and a filibuster-proof Senate majority.)

OK what I take from all this is that each coalition is generally holding up as they did in 2020.  If that's the case I don't think the GOP is heavily favored in 2022 because Dems did win the national vote pretty strongly and retained the house even though the GOP did win the majority of close races.  I think it's 50/50.  I actually think the Dems are favored in the senate right now because these results are an ominous sign for the GOP winning senate seats in NH and PA.  They have the kind of white educated voters that seem to continue to be trending Dem even just this year.  The abortion ruling might have handed Dems the senate IMO..

No, assuming universal swing from 2020 and a similar difference between mail-in and Election Day voters, this corresponds to a national Republican advantage in the generic ballot. Both of those assumptions are kind of questionable, particularly the first, but they're the most reasonable ones we have. (If anything, CA is pretty inelastic and the exit poll suggested a larger difference, both of which would help the GOP when you project this result outwards).

Also, between redistricting and the locations of the 2022 Senate races, Republicans are noticeably favored to retake both the House and Senate even if everyone votes the same as in 2020. (Special elections have been very heterogeneous, though, so this isn't necessarily true, and I don't think we have a good handle on which places are trending in which directions in the Biden era. Also, like, there are plenty of reasons to think Republicans have gained on their 2020 result.)

[Alben Barkley]

Actually, it looks like Fox is still partnering with the AP to make their calls, so maybe there is hope for their decision desk after all. It is a bit weird however that the AP was more conservative this time compared to 2020.

[soundchaser]

I’ll say it ‘til I’m blue in the face: redistricting =/= free Republican gains.

[Oryxslayer]

Elder actually half-conceded

[Vosem]

I’ll say it ‘til I’m blue in the face: redistricting =/= free Republican gains.

It adds up nationally to a net of ~8-12 Republican gains, even after you account for losses in CA/IL/NY.