CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[MT Treasurer]

Newsom is beyond safe even against an Independent challenger/in a Biden midterm/in a GOP wave. Poizner did lose by a respectable margin, but he also didn’t run against an incumbent in a high-profile race.

The state is way too gone for any Democrat to lose a gubernatorial or Senate race, unless something really weird happens in the top-two primary.

[MT Treasurer]

It's not impossible for a Republican to win in California in a Biden midterm, if they have the cash to compete, and the name recognition. Basically, they'd have to be a Republican Hollywood Celebrity to have any realistic chance at winning, and even then they'd start out as an underdog, unless Newsom chose not to run to focus on 2024 Presidential bid, or chose to run for the Senate (remember Kamala's seat will likely have an appointed incumbent in 2022. Don't rule out Newsom appointing a placeholder and then running for the seat, should Kamala be elected VP.)

You mean, like Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman, who lost by double digits in a R wave election when the state was at least 10 points less Republican than it is today?

[MT Treasurer]

He’ll be completely overhyped, some junky polls will predictably underestimate D strength in the state, Biden will campaign for his D opponent (not that it will matter), and he’ll go on to (obviously) lose by double digits on election day. Many will then unironically attribute it to GOP 'obstructionism' and Biden's campaign appearances similar to D'Amato's loss in 1998 (who totally would have won had Newt not been so mean to the Clintons and if Bill and Hillary had not campaigned for Schumer) even though it was always beyond obvious that he was never going to win regardless of the 'quality' of his campaign.

[MT Treasurer]

That recall tracker is really neat, thanks for sharing. Does anyone have a link to an interactive county/precinct map that’s updated daily? (preferably that one)

[MT Treasurer]

Ironically getting attention from national Republicans is probably the single best way to motivate California Dems to vote.

The way Republicans have been campaigning is like if the Democrats had Nancy Pelosi, AOC and Hillary Clinton lead the effort to flip Kentucky.

This is why I expect Republicans to continue to implode in blue states and states that are trending towards Democrats. I don't believe in the "redux" talk that is so prominent on Atlas, but it does seem like Republicans are falling into a similar trap that Democrats did in 2016. That is, they barely lost a winnable election so they blamed it on fraud and doubled down on everything that alienated the voters that shifted away from them, only to wonder why they keep losing ground in their old strongholds.

Yes, I expect 2024 to be the nadir in terms of how many governorships will be controlled by red state Democrats/blue state Republicans. Gubernatorial races becoming subject to the same nationalization/partisan voting patterns as Senate races will be one of the defining trends under Biden, especially with candidates unwilling to buck their party on anything of actual importance or being hilariously out of touch with the electorate at large (e.g. Elder).

[MT Treasurer]

Steve Daines must have foreseen this hopeless mess at the age of 2, which is why he advised his family to move to MT. Another 4D-chess genius move on his part! (not a self-hating RINO)

Smart CA Republicans like Greg Gianforte and Steve Daines have a future, it’s just not in CA. Obviously people very rarely move for political reasons, but making NV, AZ, NM, MT, ID, etc. more attractive destinations for CA Republicans would be a better use of time/money and also prove far more beneficial to the national party than recalls like these (especially when they’re run this incompetently).

[MT Treasurer]

Latino voters: 58-42 NO
Women: 62-38 NO

[MT Treasurer]

Los Angeles County mail-in ballots: 76% NO (according to that CNN reporter)

[MT Treasurer]

One thing I do suspect (and suspected even before this) is that 2022 will be absolutely devastating for blue state Republicans/red state Democrats across the board — I expect it to be an incredibly polarized straight-ticket midterm like no other before. This result also points to such an environment.

[MT Treasurer]

Between this and D-friendly redistricting in several populous (and less populous) states, people should really rethink their assumption that the House is considerably more likely to flip than the Senate.

Also, Young Kim needs to resign.

[MT Treasurer]

The elephant in the room in 2022 is the sheer tiny amount of seats the gop has to flip.

What is it? 6 or 7?

That is hardly a hard lift.

AT BEST, the results so far in 2021 show that 2022 is going to be pretty close to 2020, where the gop gained 12 seats and came very close to winning some more.

That is why the safe bet is that the gop takes the house.

Yes, but the problem is that this doesn’t factor in potential R losses in Biden/rapidly D-trending seats (e.g. in CA) and aggressive D redistricting (which will result in D gains that won’t all be offset by the few R gains in FL/TX). This is why I don’t see the House as much more likely to flip than the Senate.

[MT Treasurer]

The problem is that the actually existing Republican Party in CA opposes these things. Many liberals do too of course, which is why California is in the situation it's in. But the only movement for weakening zoning laws and expanding the housing supply is coming from Democrats.

Reaganism is dead, and the sooner (CA and non-CA) Republicans and those in leadership realize it, the better. All the workers' party/populist rhetoric is fruitless if the entire party apparatus has no interest in following through on much if any of it. Trump himself governed more like a Reaganite than he ever let on during the 2016 campaign, and I do think it cost him in 2020 (especially in New England, but also in the Midwest). Even if Republicans have a good year in 2022 (more likely than not), the party really needs to reinvent itself for 2024 and the long run.

[MT Treasurer]

For example, consider how Anne Marie Schubert left the GOP before running statewide or Poizner in 2018. They knew (and ascertained correctly, in Poizner's case) they would be stronger *without* the GOP. That's why Bonta is in serious peril, but Newsom is probably fine... unless he gets an organized challenge from his left. Because it is so diverse and its white population is relatively educated, conservatism is culturally irrelevant here. California's two centers of political gravity are establishment liberalism and grassroots progressivism. For a GOP candidate to win, they have to be able to ally with one of these two forces. That's really difficult to do when your politics is literally anti-diversity, pro cultural homogeneity, and anti-worker lol. That alienates pretty much everyone here except rednecks in the central valley and the most depraved of the wealthy and white in the suburbs.

I don't know about "demographics are destiny" arguments. They are unconvincing to me. But as someone who pays a lot of attention to popular culture, from which politics is always downstream, a political program focused on enriching the wealthy and powerful, being bellicose to other nations, and hostile to social progress of any kind is a terrible product for millennial and Gen Z audiences. The GOP doubles down on it because it turns out their Gen X and Boomer base, but these voters are literally committing mass suicide by unvaccination. They don't seem to be organized, don't have much time on this Earth, and are on what has been in the grand scheme of history the losing side: things not changing. Can the GOP get out of this. Absolutely, but California demonstrates it's not a Sophie's choice at all. Center-right politicians, e.g. Feinstein, and ballot initiatives, e.g. Prop 22, win all the time in California. I'd even say they are slightly more favored than progressives, although Bonta will be a real test of that. So longterm, as the country becomes more culturally like California (and it always does, sorry conservatives, but this is why you should never alienate Hollywood lol), the GOP is gonna have to figure out how to moderate plain and simple or they will become less and less competitive.

What is this, Nov. 7, 2012? The bolded reads like a parody of "emerging Democratic majority" talking points and sounds like something Steve Schmidt and Kyle Kulinski would both (unironically) subscribe to.

Also really hard to take any analysis seriously that labels Dianne Feinstein a "center-right politician." Some people really need to get out of their bubble and actually pay attention to recent political/coalition-related trends rather than having wishful thinking and their personal preferences for what the two parties' coalitions should look like cloud their judgment.

[MT Treasurer]

For example, consider how Anne Marie Schubert left the GOP before running statewide or Poizner in 2018. They knew (and ascertained correctly, in Poizner's case) they would be stronger *without* the GOP. That's why Bonta is in serious peril, but Newsom is probably fine... unless he gets an organized challenge from his left. Because it is so diverse and its white population is relatively educated, conservatism is culturally irrelevant here. California's two centers of political gravity are establishment liberalism and grassroots progressivism. For a GOP candidate to win, they have to be able to ally with one of these two forces. That's really difficult to do when your politics is literally anti-diversity, pro cultural homogeneity, and anti-worker lol. That alienates pretty much everyone here except rednecks in the central valley and the most depraved of the wealthy and white in the suburbs.

I don't know about "demographics are destiny" arguments. They are unconvincing to me. But as someone who pays a lot of attention to popular culture, from which politics is always downstream, a political program focused on enriching the wealthy and powerful, being bellicose to other nations, and hostile to social progress of any kind is a terrible product for millennial and Gen Z audiences. The GOP doubles down on it because it turns out their Gen X and Boomer base, but these voters are literally committing mass suicide by unvaccination. They don't seem to be organized, don't have much time on this Earth, and are on what has been in the grand scheme of history the losing side: things not changing. Can the GOP get out of this. Absolutely, but California demonstrates it's not a Sophie's choice at all. Center-right politicians, e.g. Feinstein, and ballot initiatives, e.g. Prop 22, win all the time in California. I'd even say they are slightly more favored than progressives, although Bonta will be a real test of that. So longterm, as the country becomes more culturally like California (and it always does, sorry conservatives, but this is why you should never alienate Hollywood lol), the GOP is gonna have to figure out how to moderate plain and simple or they will become less and less competitive.

What is this, Nov. 7, 2012? The bolded reads like a parody of "emerging Democratic majority" talking points and sounds like something Steve Schmidt and Kyle Kulinski would both (unironically) subscribe to.

Also really hard to take any analysis seriously that labels Dianne Feinstein a "center-right politician." Some people really need to get out of their bubble and actually pay attention to recent political/coalition-related trends rather than having wishful thinking and their personal preferences for what the two parties' coalitions should look like cloud their judgment.

The first paragraph sounds reasonable to me in that any successful R candidate will have to pick off enough dissatisfied/swingy voters from at least one of the two D coalition camps. Not a close follower of CA state politics, but I don't see why Rob Bonta would be particularly vulnerable given that he seems to be the only Dem in the upcoming primaries and his ability to play the race card.

I don’t think Republicans will win a single statewide race in CA in 2022, but this poster phrased it quite differently than you. Your point that they need to peel off some dissatisfied voters from at least one of the two (and I think there are more than those two) D coalition camps (most likely the former) is definitely valid, but his view is that Republicans need to ally themselves with one of those camps, which I don’t think is a feasible (much less fruitful) strategy at all, even less so when applied to the national level or even other "diverse" states like TX or FL (diverse =/= necessarily trending/voting solidly Democratic!). The CA GOP might adopt some of their rhetoric and make concessions on certain issues pushed by or at least associated with either camp, but they have to carve out their platform/distinct brand to successfully present themselves as an anti-status-quo party (which I do think could be a winning message in CA if held together by a genuine pro-worker, pro-family, multi-racial party 'same-opportunities-for-all' banner). They certainly should be moving away from many excesses of movement conservatism, but there’s a world of difference between that and a Democratic-lite party, especially when it likewise subsumes unbridled cultural liberalism and nanny-state authoritarianism into its platform (I don’t buy that these are winning issues for Democrats, even in CA). Democrats also don’t receive record margins of support from non-white voters in CA because "Republicans demonize Hollywood."

I don’t dislike Elder personally and I think he’s more knowledgeable than people give him credit for, but a major reason why he underperformed generic R was because he was even more out of touch on economic rhetoric than in his support for Trump/Trumpian rhetoric, i.e., the worst possible Republican nominee for CA (with no campaigning/branding skills to make up for it). People were quick to read the CA recall as a sign of the demise of the Republican Party when Ciattarelli and Youngkin both showed that you can compete in a blue state without campaigning like a culturally liberal Democrat or as a Republican who combines the worst traits of Romney and Trump. More importantly, however, CA is just not the trendsetter it was in the 1950s-1990s (this has been borne out by more than a few election cycles now), so extrapolating CA's political shifts to the national level the way coloradocowboi did seems counterproductive and selective.