CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Thunder98]

Santa Barbara County is very close to the statewide margin once again.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

lol within seconds of CNN calling it, their talking heads completely shifted to "Cool that he won but now he needs to govern"

It's not like he's had to waste all year being distracted by a frivolous recall or anything

[kyc0705]

I watched a bit of MSNBC's coverage about 20 minutes ago and you could tell Kornacki was openly flabbergasted at the desk* for not calling it yet. He was literally just trying to come up with any possible reason except the more obvious one that he'd get fired for saying on-air.

EDIT: *Or more accurately, a suit telling an equally exasperated desk to just give it one more commercial break.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Lol I hate Newsom but THG being so wrong makes this amazing.

[Da2017]

The Gop blew away a winnable election big time.

[Greedo punched first]

The Gop blew away a winnable election big time.

It was never winnable.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1437982179586363394

Jesus, I know this is California but Republicans are absolutely dead with college whites.

Well looks like the TRENDS very much are real on both sides.

Sadly for the GOP, white educated voters are probably the single most reliable demographic in terms of turnout.

Especially in off years.  Which is why the takes here that Dems are totally screwed for sure in 2022 are absurd.  If you even suggest Dems have a shot in 2022 you are a Dem "hack."  Very sad the level of discourse on the right at the moment.

[Roll Roons]

The Gop blew away a winnable election big time.

I don't think it was ever really winnable.

[Greedo punched first]

Will 2022 be D vs. D?

[Alben Barkley]

I watched a bit of MSNBC's coverage about 20 minutes ago and you could tell Kornacki was openly flabbergasted at the desk for not calling it yet. He was literally just trying to come up with any possible reason except the more obvious one that he'd get fired for saying on-air.

I noticed the same thing. You could tell he was trying with all his might to constrain his inner Wasserman and keep from screaming "I'VE SEEN ENOUGH!"

[MasterJedi]

Lol I hate Newsom but THG being so wrong makes this amazing.

He’s always really wrong though so I’m not surprised at all.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Damn Del Norte ruining the pacific coast sweep

[Non Swing Voter]

Lol I hate Newsom but THG being so wrong makes this amazing.

The thing that most upsets me is that the signature block did not allow me to put his entire first Atlas prediction in there.  

[Real Texan Politics]

Final predictions, bookmark this if I'm wrong:

Newsom survives by mid teens.

Recall wins Orange by high single digits. Fresno will vote to the right of Orange.

Elder wins almost every county in the replacement map, exceptions being Faulconer likely winning San Diego, Paffrath winning the Bay Area, and Killey possibly winning Sacramento (latter prediction may be a stretch but could happen).

Jenner (at best) wins one or two precincts in Hollywood (if she's to win any at all), though she will likely not even finish top 5 after Elder seemed to unite the republicans around him.

Quoted for posterity and to note that I don’t think Kiley will win any counties.

Yup, though I was right Elder would win almost every county.

He's up in every county except San Francisco.

[gf20202]

It's a sad situation that goes beyond any one party, but to at least some people thought the recall presented a chance to throw a wrench in the system.

12% of the state signed a petition that got four extra months, only to throw 40% of the vote at a right wing ideologue with no practical governing experience to handle the difficult problems of the state. It cost the state $270 million dollars. Spare me the idea that was some good hearted effort at reform. That $270 million could have gone to the homeless, but was spent on a useless election.

[KaiserDave]

What a waste of time, Newsom was never going to be recalled.

[Da2017]

The Gop blew away a winnable election big time.

I don't think it was ever really winnable.

Well they could of made it competitive at the least. Making Larry Elder the face of the recall I think made it a landslide win.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The Gop blew away a winnable election big time.

A win for the GOP here is keeping it under 60-40.

[JMT]

Official AP call

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1437986473572249602?s=20

[Adam Griffin]

Tentative 2018-2021 swing map:

[Thunder98]

Even SLO County is above 60% for no. lol

It's a Biden +13.1% - Clinton +8% - Obama +1% county.

[Gass3268]

How long until Placer starts voting Democratic?

[Non Swing Voter]

Dems do better with college whites than non-college minority groups.  Good time to remind everyone that the GOP is actively trying to make it more difficult to vote at the margins so the electorate skews more college educated white.  Can't wait for this to backfire spectacularly.

[Crumpets]

AP has called it.

[Greedo punched first]

Will 2022 be a blue wave in California?