CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

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south dakota mayor kevin faulconer

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I guess my vote right now is Lean Airport Dude.

Bonus points for his website still hosting his campaign for SF Mayor in 2019.

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At this point, Newsom has played his cards pretty much just how he needed to. He will be retained and it probably won’t be particularly close in the end.

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Sounds like 60% to me

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At this point the only race is between No and Newsom 2018 for the higher percentage.

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YES AT 70% in SOLANO COUNTY. THE RECALL LIVES AGAIN.



I love input errors

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It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

I don't think I've seen anyone say this before you did? That being said, the people claiming that "this election will show a collapse in Democratic support precipitating a collapse for Biden in the midterms" maybe need to...reevaluate.

There has (as of yet) been no mass "abandonment" of the Democrats/Biden from 2020.

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My final prediction is now No +19%, which is up from no +14% last week. Would this be a reasonable +19% map or should I tweak it a little bit. I'm not sure how OC, Riverside and Fresno will exactly vote for, so I guess they will vote yes by under a 2-3% margin.

Man, My prediction was quite off on the margin and in some counties as well. Oh well.

No +19% seems pretty good. There is no ED vote in yet, I think your SoCal predictions will be on point.

OC mathematically does not have the votes out to flip to Yes even if the remainder is 100% for recall. Given Riverside margin atm I don't think it flips either.

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My final prediction is now No +19%, which is up from no +14% last week. Would this be a reasonable +19% map or should I tweak it a little bit. I'm not sure how OC, Riverside and Fresno will exactly vote for, so I guess they will vote yes by under a 2-3% margin.

Man, My prediction was quite off on the margin and in some counties as well. Oh well.

No +19% seems pretty good. There is no ED vote in yet, I think your SoCal predictions will be on point.

OC mathematically does not have the votes out to flip to Yes even if the remainder is 100% for recall. Given Riverside margin atm I don't think it flips either.

Are you sure about that, NYT has OC at 58% No with 64% of the vote in. That is, 37% No, 27% Yes of the eventual vote far. According to that, Yes would need about 64% of the eventual vote for 50/50. Now that I did the math, I think OC will be +2 No, but it's not mathematically impossible.

Saw somewhere that the total in-person vote in OC was 103K. Which would mean NYT is overestimating the remainder.


Actually, CA SoS is showing OC as all in with 58% no, so...lol

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Guys ignore vosem, he’s desperately trying to find a way to cope.

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Newsom was basically saved by no one challenging him on the Dem side.

By this logic, almost every Democratic nominee ever has been “saved” by not having another Democrat challenging them in a general election…