CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Calthrina950]

^ LOL

Have you seen my post? I don't think what Matty says here is out of the realm of plausibility. The House will still be relatively close, simply because the number of competitive districts has declined.

[Non Swing Voter]

The elephant in the room in 2022 is the sheer tiny amount of seats the gop has to flip.

What is it? 6 or 7?

That is hardly a hard lift.

AT BEST, the results so far in 2021 show that 2022 is going to be pretty close to 2020, where the gop gained 12 seats and came very close to winning some more.

That is why the safe bet is that the gop takes the house.

They won most of those seats by incredibly narrow margins in increasingly Dem-friendly counties. Add in the wild card that is redistricting in New York, California, etc. and I would not be using the phrase “safe bet.”

So you're saying the GOP isn't going to just gain 12 seats every year in perpetuity?

[Matty]

The elephant in the room in 2022 is the sheer tiny amount of seats the gop has to flip.

What is it? 6 or 7?

That is hardly a hard lift.

AT BEST, the results so far in 2021 show that 2022 is going to be pretty close to 2020, where the gop gained 12 seats and came very close to winning some more.

That is why the safe bet is that the gop takes the house.

They won most of those seats by incredibly narrow margins in increasingly Dem-friendly counties. Add in the wild card that is redistricting in New York, California, etc. and I would not be using the phrase “safe bet.”

Dems won by narrow margins in many states too. According to Harry enten's recent cnn article, dems have been underperforming their 2020 results by almost 8 points since july 2021.

If you apply that to 2022, the gop will take the house.

[MT Treasurer]

The elephant in the room in 2022 is the sheer tiny amount of seats the gop has to flip.

What is it? 6 or 7?

That is hardly a hard lift.

AT BEST, the results so far in 2021 show that 2022 is going to be pretty close to 2020, where the gop gained 12 seats and came very close to winning some more.

That is why the safe bet is that the gop takes the house.

Yes, but the problem is that this doesn’t factor in potential R losses in Biden/rapidly D-trending seats (e.g. in CA) and aggressive D redistricting (which will result in D gains that won’t all be offset by the few R gains in FL/TX). This is why I don’t see the House as much more likely to flip than the Senate.

[One Term Floridian]

Statistically there have to be some No/Elder voters, I wonder who they are.

Olawakandi himself

[Matty]

The elephant in the room in 2022 is the sheer tiny amount of seats the gop has to flip.

What is it? 6 or 7?

That is hardly a hard lift.

AT BEST, the results so far in 2021 show that 2022 is going to be pretty close to 2020, where the gop gained 12 seats and came very close to winning some more.

That is why the safe bet is that the gop takes the house.

They won most of those seats by incredibly narrow margins in increasingly Dem-friendly counties. Add in the wild card that is redistricting in New York, California, etc. and I would not be using the phrase “safe bet.”

So you're saying the GOP isn't going to just gain 12 seats every year in perpetuity?

I worded by post weird. I DID NOT mean the gop was going to gain 12 seats. I was referring to 2020.

My point was that the results so far are tracking within a few points of the 2020 result. We still have more than a year till 2022.

IIRC, dems were still leading the GCB polling in late 2009 and early 2010.

[Non Swing Voter]

What happened to the ? poster?  I was replying to his post and then it said he doesn't exist???

[libertpaulian]

The CAGOP just turned Newsom into a national star.

[swf541]

Anyone who is predicting the house outcome definitively favoring one side or another is a moron given we dont even know what the maps are going to be in 2022.

[Matty]

Statistically there have to be some No/Elder voters, I wonder who they are.

Olawakandi himself

Olawakandi did not vote. He doesn't have a PO box on whatever mountain peak his temple/house is on, and he didn't want to make the trek down to the local village on his homemade cart.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

No doubt if the recall was failing by less than 20%, blue avatars like Matty would be completely apes**t by now and predicting complete & utter doom for Dems in 2022.

Now that it seems to be failing by more than expected, they're still doing that but are more matter-of-factly about it.

[Non Swing Voter]

The elephant in the room in 2022 is the sheer tiny amount of seats the gop has to flip.

What is it? 6 or 7?

That is hardly a hard lift.

AT BEST, the results so far in 2021 show that 2022 is going to be pretty close to 2020, where the gop gained 12 seats and came very close to winning some more.

That is why the safe bet is that the gop takes the house.

They won most of those seats by incredibly narrow margins in increasingly Dem-friendly counties. Add in the wild card that is redistricting in New York, California, etc. and I would not be using the phrase “safe bet.”

So you're saying the GOP isn't going to just gain 12 seats every year in perpetuity?

I worded by post weird. I DID NOT mean the gop was going to gain 12 seats. I was referring to 2020.

My point was that the results so far are tracking within a few points of the 2020 result. We still have more than a year till 2022.

IIRC, dems were still leading the GCB polling in late 2009 and early 2010.

You also said Newsom would win by 10 and called me a "hack" in numerous threads.  Apparently predicting a race accurately makes me a "hack."

[Хahar 🤔]

Most of you will disagree with this post, but just a reminder that there are a lot of moderate and reasonable independents and republicans who live here and are very concerned about the big issues facing this state: the absurd housing prices, the cost of living, gas prices, one party dominance in the statehouse that produces bad laws such as ones that ban independent contracting, etc. A census report came out today that California has the highest cost-of-living adjusted poverty rate of any state, behind only DC.

Nothing seems to get fixed or addressed to these citizens. They are frustrated that there is zero feasible 2nd party opposition that can at least bring some balance to Sacramento.

You don't have to be some trumpist idiot to have some worry about the issues in the state.

Just some perspective for the out-of-staters on here treating this like a team sport.

I personally know many people under 30 who grew up here and adore the state who unfortunately are essentially being forced out to other states because of the rent and their financial inability to afford any homes to start their american dream.

It's a sad situation that goes beyond any one party, but to at least some people thought the recall presented a chance to throw a wrench in the system.

I agree that cost of living is a serious problem in California! It's why I've spent most of my adult life elsewhere; the only reason I'm here now is because I'm living rent-free with my parents.

The next time I see a substantive proposal by Republicans to do something about this will be the first.

[Matty]

No doubt if the recall was failing by less than a 20% margin, blue avatars like Matty would be completely apes**t by now and predicting complete & utter doom for Dems in 2022.

Nope. But, objectively speaking, the "yes to recall" is going to outperform the gop performance in many many house seats throughout the state when all the votes are counted.

[Vosem]

These margins are gonna tighten as non early ballots are counted right?   Still looks atrocious for the GOP but what is it looking like?  22 point win for Newsom?

Depends. Under a 2020-style shift in the post-count, maybe as much as 26. If you believe exit polling and that there was less liberal enthusiasm for keeping Newsom than for booting Trump, then something like 18-20.

I don't think the current mail-in result is inconsistent with the exit polls being right, and if the exit polls are right then we're probably currently in a R+low national generic ballot. At the same time, we don't really know what the votes that are still out are going to show.

(Also, how to appraise this election depends on if the relevant comparison is Trump '20 -- who lost by 30 points in CA while being down 5 nationally -- congressional Republicans in 2020 -- who lost by 32 points in CA while being down 3 nationally, though they left some seats uncontested -- or Cox in 2018 -- who lost by 24 in CA while the generic ballot was D+8.

Depending on which of these numbers you use, for Republicans to be winning nationally they may need to come within 16 points in CA, which they're not doing, or maybe 29 is sufficient, which they've certainly blown past. Also, of course, Republicans don't need to win nationally to take the Presidency and a filibuster-proof Senate majority.)

[Non Swing Voter]

No doubt if the recall was failing by less than a 20% margin, blue avatars would be completely apes**t by now and predicting complete & utter doom for Dems in 2022.

Right, and this literally happens every election here.  If Dems overperform, this is a nothing burger because "X" about "Y" state is unique.  If Dems underperform, it means EVERYTHING, literally EVERYTHING.  

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Contiguous victory maps are always so satisfying

[Matty]

Most of you will disagree with this post, but just a reminder that there are a lot of moderate and reasonable independents and republicans who live here and are very concerned about the big issues facing this state: the absurd housing prices, the cost of living, gas prices, one party dominance in the statehouse that produces bad laws such as ones that ban independent contracting, etc. A census report came out today that California has the highest cost-of-living adjusted poverty rate of any state, behind only DC.

Nothing seems to get fixed or addressed to these citizens. They are frustrated that there is zero feasible 2nd party opposition that can at least bring some balance to Sacramento.

You don't have to be some trumpist idiot to have some worry about the issues in the state.

Just some perspective for the out-of-staters on here treating this like a team sport.

I personally know many people under 30 who grew up here and adore the state who unfortunately are essentially being forced out to other states because of the rent and their financial inability to afford any homes to start their american dream.

It's a sad situation that goes beyond any one party, but to at least some people thought the recall presented a chance to throw a wrench in the system.

I agree that cost of living is a serious problem in California! It's why I've spent most of my adult life elsewhere; the only reason I'm here now is because I'm living rent-free with my parents.

The next time I see a substantive proposal by Republicans to do something about this will be the first.

I don't have a policy paper to give you, lol.

but my solution involves abolishing zoning laws (or at least severely limiting them), and reducing the stigma of things like trailer parks and mini homes.

[Non Swing Voter]

These margins are gonna tighten as non early ballots are counted right?   Still looks atrocious for the GOP but what is it looking like?  22 point win for Newsom?

Depends. Under a 2020-style shift in the post-count, maybe as much as 26. If you believe exit polling and that there was less liberal enthusiasm for keeping Newsom than for booting Trump, then something like 18-20.

I don't think the current mail-in result is inconsistent with the exit polls being right, and if the exit polls are right then we're probably currently in a R+low national generic ballot. At the same time, we don't really know what the votes that are still out are going to show.

(Also, how to appraise this election depends on if the relevant comparison is Trump '20 -- who lost by 30 points in CA while being down 5 nationally -- congressional Republicans in 2020 -- who lost by 32 points in CA while being down 3 nationally, though they left some seats uncontested -- or Cox in 2018 -- who lost by 24 in CA while the generic ballot was D+8.

Depending on which of these numbers you use, for Republicans to be winning nationally they may need to come within 16 points in CA, which they're not doing, or maybe 29 is sufficient, which they've certainly blown past. Also, of course, Republicans don't need to win nationally to take the Presidency and a filibuster-proof Senate majority.)

OK what I take from all this is that each coalition is generally holding up as they did in 2020.  If that's the case I don't think the GOP is heavily favored in 2022 because Dems did win the national vote pretty strongly and retained the house even though the GOP did win the majority of close races.  I think it's 50/50.  I actually think the Dems are favored in the senate right now because these results are an ominous sign for the GOP winning senate seats in NH and PA.  They have the kind of white educated voters that seem to continue to be trending Dem even just this year.  The abortion ruling might have handed Dems the senate IMO..

[Lief 🗽]

Most of you will disagree with this post, but just a reminder that there are a lot of moderate and reasonable independents and republicans who live here and are very concerned about the big issues facing this state: the absurd housing prices, the cost of living, gas prices, one party dominance in the statehouse that produces bad laws such as ones that ban independent contracting, etc. A census report came out today that California has the highest cost-of-living adjusted poverty rate of any state, behind only DC.

Nothing seems to get fixed or addressed to these citizens. They are frustrated that there is zero feasible 2nd party opposition that can at least bring some balance to Sacramento.

You don't have to be some trumpist idiot to have some worry about the issues in the state.

Just some perspective for the out-of-staters on here treating this like a team sport.

I personally know many people under 30 who grew up here and adore the state who unfortunately are essentially being forced out to other states because of the rent and their financial inability to afford any homes to start their american dream.

It's a sad situation that goes beyond any one party, but to at least some people thought the recall presented a chance to throw a wrench in the system.

I agree that cost of living is a serious problem in California! It's why I've spent most of my adult life elsewhere; the only reason I'm here now is because I'm living rent-free with my parents.

The next time I see a substantive proposal by Republicans to do something about this will be the first.

I don't have a policy paper to give you, lol.

but my solution involves abolishing zoning laws (or at least severely limiting them), and reducing the stigma of things like trailer parks and mini homes.

The problem is that the actually existing Republican Party in CA opposes these things. Many liberals do too of course, which is why California is in the situation it's in. But the only movement for weakening zoning laws and expanding the housing supply is coming from Democrats.

[Gass3268]

The Exit poll looks to be off when it comes to Latinos.

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1437994304052543490?s=20

[Matty]

These margins are gonna tighten as non early ballots are counted right?   Still looks atrocious for the GOP but what is it looking like?  22 point win for Newsom?

Depends. Under a 2020-style shift in the post-count, maybe as much as 26. If you believe exit polling and that there was less liberal enthusiasm for keeping Newsom than for booting Trump, then something like 18-20.

I don't think the current mail-in result is inconsistent with the exit polls being right, and if the exit polls are right then we're probably currently in a R+low national generic ballot. At the same time, we don't really know what the votes that are still out are going to show.

(Also, how to appraise this election depends on if the relevant comparison is Trump '20 -- who lost by 30 points in CA while being down 5 nationally -- congressional Republicans in 2020 -- who lost by 32 points in CA while being down 3 nationally, though they left some seats uncontested -- or Cox in 2018 -- who lost by 24 in CA while the generic ballot was D+8.

Depending on which of these numbers you use, for Republicans to be winning nationally they may need to come within 16 points in CA, which they're not doing, or maybe 29 is sufficient, which they've certainly blown past. Also, of course, Republicans don't need to win nationally to take the Presidency and a filibuster-proof Senate majority.)

OK what I take from all this is that each coalition is generally holding up as they did in 2020.  If that's the case I don't think the GOP is heavily favored in 2022 because Dems did win the national vote pretty strongly and retained the house even though the GOP did win the majority of close races.  I think it's 50/50.  I actually think the Dems are favored in the senate right now because these results are an ominous sign for the GOP winning senate seats in NH and PA.  They have the kind of white educated voters that seem to continue to be trending Dem even just this year.  The abortion ruling might have handed Dems the senate IMO..

Candidate quality is important.

One reason dems did well in 2018 was how good their recruits were in many suburban seats. They smartly nominated a lot of ex intel and military during an election where russian aggression was at least partially a big issue.

GOP actually did pretty well in 2020 with their recruitment. A lot of women and professional appearing candidates.

[Thunder98]

Holy crap!

[Non Swing Voter]

The Exit poll looks to be off when it comes to Latinos.

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1437994304052543490?s=20

Isn't it safe to say the exit polls are off generally?  The exit polls they put on CNN earlier made it seem as though this was a 12-14 point race.  The GOP is gonna have to win a massive margin of the remaining ballots for that to be accurate.

[Хahar 🤔]

The problem is that the actually existing Republican Party in CA opposes these things. Many liberals do too of course, which is why California is in the situation it's in. But the only movement for weakening zoning laws and expanding the housing supply is coming from Democrats.

Yes, I agree with Lief entirely. It's not just that I don't believe that Republicans can fix these problems; it's that there's no reason to think that they even want to.