Weird 538 maps

[YL]

I think the weird maps have been getting a bit less frequent recently.  But they're still out there:

Mississippi, Louisiana and South Carolina, but not North Carolina?  Iowa but not Minnesota?  Oregon (of course)?  Vermont?

[Figueira]

I think the weird maps have been getting a bit less frequent recently.  But they're still out there:

Mississippi, Louisiana and South Carolina, but not North Carolina?  Iowa but not Minnesota?  Oregon (of course)?  Vermont?

Looks like a map from a fictional show created in 1988.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Biden wins AZ and PA but loses MI and WI, resulting in a Trump win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I got this in my senate simulator (Hint, look at RI)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I think the weird maps have been getting a bit less frequent recently.  But they're still out there:

Mississippi, Louisiana and South Carolina, but not North Carolina?  Iowa but not Minnesota?  Oregon (of course)?  Vermont?

I had to plug this thing into the electoral college calculator because I was genuinely unsure who would even win. My brain had never processed something that looked like this before.

[JRP1994]

https://twitter.com/micahcohen/status/1313106372284887040

[pantsaregood]

I think the weird maps have been getting a bit less frequent recently.  But they're still out there:

Mississippi, Louisiana and South Carolina, but not North Carolina?  Iowa but not Minnesota?  Oregon (of course)?  Vermont?

This map could've been more entertaining if they had ME-2 going D while ME-1 goes R.

[The Mikado]

 Look at Vermont.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Go home, 538. You're drunk.

[The Mikado]

I envision Fivey Fox coming into the room with a dead bird, dropping it at your feet proudly, and looking expectantly like he wants praise.

[pantsaregood]

what is this I dont even

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I envision Fivey Fox coming into the room with a dead bird, dropping it at your feet proudly, and looking expectantly like he wants praise.

This is a pretty decent 1992 Al Gore / Paul Tsongas victory map.

(Edit: Except for Virginia. I can't think of a year or circumstance where VA turns blue on this map.)

[Battista Minola 1616]

FiveyFox just REALLY hates Oregon.

[JRP1994]

[Stuart98]

What fresh hell

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden wins the NPV by 14% and Democrats get terribly unlucky in the senate (yes, that's a red NC, ME, IA, KS, SC, TX, AK and MT, all of which the GOP win by less than 1%). I would be so pissed if this actually happened

[GALeftist]

Biden wins Missouri and Indiana but loses Minnesota

Biden wins Texas, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Mississippi but loses Georgia

Biden wins Utah

*thonk*

[morgieb]

Not 538 but someone shared this simulation in Discord which I found pretty bizarre.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Here's a compilation of every Trump victory map right now:

Red = Biden in all scenarios
Blue = Trump in all scenarios
Gray = States that differ between scenarios

Even in the wildest of outliers, VA and OR are now gone. That sounds like it should be obvious, but there are still outliers on Biden's end that have MS, TN, KS, IN, and LA going to Biden. Yes, the model is still spitting out results with those states going to Biden, but none at all with VA going to Trump. That's remarkable.

The other notable thing about this is that among the Trump states in EVERY Trump victory, including the ridiculous outliers, we have:

Florida (Biden leads by 4.4%)
North Carolina (Biden leads by 2.7%)
Ohio (Biden leads by 0.9%)
Iowa (Biden leads by 1.1%)
Georgia (Biden leads by 1.4%)

Trump victory maps are as much outliers as maps where Biden wins 430+ EVs. That's where the race is, according to 538.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Right now there are no maps that have Trump winning with Oregon, but there is a map with Biden winning WITHOUT Oregon, thanks to tipping point Mississippi.

I really want to see a trace of what path in their model led to this map.

[Torrain]

Right now there are no maps that have Trump winning with Oregon, but there is a map with Biden winning WITHOUT Oregon, thanks to tipping point Mississippi.

I really want to see a trace of what path in their model led to this map.

Tippissippi?

[°Leprechaun]

weird maps:

https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulation/

really weird maps:

http://presidentelect.us/2012/

Go to 1) maps 2)make your own map and then 3) randomize map

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

weird maps:

https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulation/

really weird maps:

http://presidentelect.us/2012/

Go to 1) maps 2)make your own map and then 3) randomize map

Here's a nice 270 simulation:



This would give me a bit of a sad, because of Indiana.

I have yet to run one where WI was not a bellwether, interestingly enough.

[SInNYC]

Right now there are no maps that have Trump winning with Oregon, but there is a map with Biden winning WITHOUT Oregon, thanks to tipping point Mississippi.

I really want to see a trace of what path in their model led to this map.

Tippissippi?

I'd bet that model is basically ignoring voter elasticity. MS (like many other southern states) has a high D floor due to minorities, but its also a low ceiling since no white is voting D. especially males or over 25s. Any model that just adds n% to the white vote uniformly will predict crazy things like Ds winning MS.

[Torrain]

Right now there are no maps that have Trump winning with Oregon, but there is a map with Biden winning WITHOUT Oregon, thanks to tipping point Mississippi.

I really want to see a trace of what path in their model led to this map.

Tippissippi?

I'd bet that model is basically ignoring voter elasticity. MS (like many other southern states) has a high D floor due to minorities, but its also a low ceiling since no white is voting D. especially males or over 25s. Any model that just adds n% to the white vote uniformly will predict crazy things like Ds winning MS.

Yeah, MS has the most inelastic electorate in the country. MS would need all sorts of specific conditions to produce a D win. I just like the pun tbh.