538 model & poll tracker thread

[Gass3268]

The national polling average really dropped an *ENTIRE POINT* because of the Zogby poll. Really.

That MO Trafalgar poll also dropped a point off Biden's win %.

[wbrocks67]

The national polling average really dropped an *ENTIRE POINT* because of the Zogby poll. Really.

That MO Trafalgar poll also dropped a point off Biden's win %.

Which doesn't make any sense to me, considering that even before the Trafalgar R bias, Trump +11 there is not good at all for him after winning 18 in 2016. Then if you take into account the R bias of Trafalgar, you'd assume that poll actually looks VERY good for Biden. Yet it hurts him somehow? I literally do not understand this model, and how it appears that so many things somehow help Trump in it and so few hurt Trump.

[wbrocks67]

And we've gotten Biden +12, Biden +13, and Biden +9 this morning, and it's still at Biden +8.0.

Once again, for whatever reason, it's as if good Biden polls don't help all that much, but a bad one hurts way more than the good ones help.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The national polling average really dropped an *ENTIRE POINT* because of the Zogby poll. Really.

That MO Trafalgar poll also dropped a point off Biden's win %.

Which doesn't make any sense to me, considering that even before the Trafalgar R bias, Trump +11 there is not good at all for him after winning 18 in 2016. Then if you take into account the R bias of Trafalgar, you'd assume that poll actually looks VERY good for Biden. Yet it hurts him somehow? I literally do not understand this model, and how it appears that so many things somehow help Trump in it and so few hurt Trump.

The thing is that you're doing a bunch of analysis on that poll whereas the model just reads it straight up. The model doesn't correlate it with what that pollster polled in other states. Fact is the MO polling average was closer than 11% margin (roughly 7% according to my calculations) so this would push up Trump's chances in MO, as it did in my own model as well

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The national polling average really dropped an *ENTIRE POINT* because of the Zogby poll. Really.

That MO Trafalgar poll also dropped a point off Biden's win %.

I assume this point mostly dropped off because of the Zogby poll, not the MO poll.  It's back to 69-31 now after the GQR PA poll and the Harris national poll, both showing Biden +9.  

In any case, Nate has tweeted that a 1% change can sometimes be the result of the model just drawing a different sample even if is given no new information.

And it's hard to fault the model for changing in response to trash polls when it is -only- given trash polls as inputs.

[Skye]

I found this too funny not to share here:

https://twitter.com/ne0liberal/status/1300480145334165507

[wbrocks67]

So the HarrisX +9 Biden poll didn't move the average (despite it being above the +8.0 average), yet the RMG Biden +4 poll dropped it 0.3.

Again, the model and the averages seem to significantly overweight bad polls versus good polls. You'll get a slew of good Biden polls - it barely moves an inch. You get 1 or 2 meh polls, then the average starts sliding.

[Roll Roons]

I found this too funny not to share here:

https://twitter.com/ne0liberal/status/1300480145334165507

Biden is caught on camera personally murdering Jon Bon Jovi, Bruce Springsteen and Tom Kean Sr.

[Dr. Frankenstein]

So the HarrisX +9 Biden poll didn't move the average (despite it being above the +8.0 average), yet the RMG Biden +4 poll dropped it 0.3.

Again, the model and the averages seem to significantly overweight bad polls versus good polls. You'll get a slew of good Biden polls - it barely moves an inch. You get 1 or 2 meh polls, then the average starts sliding.

I've noticed that as well. Good polls seem to have little to no effect, whereas mediocre or bad ones brought the prediction from 73-27 to 68-32. In fact, Biden's lead in PA just shrank by 0.2 after the two +9 and +8/+10 polls. I for one can't wrap my head around this...

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I wouldn't expect a C-rated poll that is 1 point off the average to move the average at all.  Obviously a poll that is 4 points off the average is going to move it much more.

I would question why 538 seems to be interpreting the RMG result as Biden +4 rather than Biden +8.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Again, Silver seems to care more about covering his ass in case 2016 repeats rather than actually giving us an accurate picture of where the race stands.

[wbrocks67]

Again, Silver seems to care more about covering his ass in case 2016 repeats rather than actually giving us an accurate picture of where the race stands.

Yeah, the entire model seems designed to just be more bullish for Trump than reality would say it is.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think they've made a lot of questionable decisions with their model this year.
But their polling averages still seem pretty well designed to me.  It's not their faults we're only getting sh**tty polls right now.

[bilaps]

So the HarrisX +9 Biden poll didn't move the average (despite it being above the +8.0 average), yet the RMG Biden +4 poll dropped it 0.3.

Again, the model and the averages seem to significantly overweight bad polls versus good polls. You'll get a slew of good Biden polls - it barely moves an inch. You get 1 or 2 meh polls, then the average starts sliding.

It's the right wing conspiracy.

[wbrocks67]

The Emerson poll dropped the average *0.6 points*.

Remember the HarrisX poll that was +9 this morning? literally didn't move the average at all, not even 0.1.

How does that work?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The average dropped to Biden +7.1, which is Obama '08 level of support.

[Woody]

Biden with his weakest lead since early June, Bill Stepien is a genius.

[Horus]

The Emerson poll dropped the average *0.6 points*.

Remember the HarrisX poll that was +9 this morning? literally didn't move the average at all, not even 0.1.

How does that work?

Emerson has an A- rating

[Landslide Lyndon]

The Emerson poll dropped the average *0.6 points*.

Remember the HarrisX poll that was +9 this morning? literally didn't move the average at all, not even 0.1.

How does that work?

Emerson has an A- rating

Which itself is absurd. They are one of the worst pollsters not named Zogby or McLaughlin.

[Kuumo]

If we keep getting similar polls for the next two months, Trump will get up to a 50% chance of winning on election day, and Nate Silver won't have to worry about getting the election wrong regardless of who wins.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I was wondering about this:

https://twitter.com/micahcohen/status/1300499465518886914

[Gass3268]

The Emerson poll dropped the average *0.6 points*.

Remember the HarrisX poll that was +9 this morning? literally didn't move the average at all, not even 0.1.

How does that work?

Emerson has an A- rating

Which itself is absurd. They are one of the worst pollsters not named Zogby or McLaughlin.

They had very good 2018 results and then they went and changed how they got their samples, throwing away their progress.

[wbrocks67]

The last 4 polls entered into PA: Biden +8, Biden +9, Biden +10, Biden +7

3 more back? Biden +3, Biden +7, Biden +7

The current average: Biden +4.7

This isn't even the forecast, this is just a straight up average. How

[Landslide Lyndon]

The last 4 polls entered into PA: Biden +8, Biden +9, Biden +10, Biden +7

3 more back? Biden +3, Biden +7, Biden +7

The current average: Biden +4.7

This isn't even the forecast, this is just a straight up average. How

There have been 5 Georgia polls in August. Biden leads in four of them and yet their forecast shows Trump leading by about a point.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

And we've gotten Biden +12, Biden +13, and Biden +9 this morning, and it's still at Biden +8.0.

Once again, for whatever reason, it's as if good Biden polls don't help all that much, but a bad one hurts way more than the good ones help.

There was two new PA polls today with Biden +9. There was also a Biden +7 poll, Nate has Biden only up  4.7 in PA.