538 model & poll tracker thread

[Skye]

We're getting closer to it folks!

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1286026030487162880

[Skye]

It seems the model is taking longer than expected, but all the doom talk in this thread is frankly ridiculous. The conventions haven't even happened. The model doesn't need to be up this early. But I hope it's released soon.

[Skye]

Biden's chances are surprisingly low.

I'm also not really a fan of the design, but welp.

[Skye]

Biden's chances are surprisingly low.

I'm also not really a fan of the design, but welp.

Could they be overcompensating for 2016? Tbh given how this models get rated it is probably better to give Biden too low of a chance at winning than too high.

Also the design is interesting. Better than what I expected though not ideal

I would like to know but the methodology page isn't up yet. Silver will probably make a twitter thread explaining though.

But yeah, the design... the fact that there's no national map is strange. They're only represented with one of those horrible snake charts, and a few swing states. The rest, you have to select from a list. If you ask me, the design is a step down from 2016.

[Skye]

I like the little fox mascot and that's pretty much it. Not happy there isn't a national map that you can hover over to get their odds.

If you notice, their front page has a "Biden is favored" and not "Biden has 70% chance to win". When you open the forecast, it's the same, you have to scroll down to see the numbers and then there's the snake chart. The way it's presented almost feels like it's a deliberate attempt to downplay the numbers.

Not to say the overall model *is* bad. I certainly appreciate that they put a lot of emphasis on the uncertainty on how the race can change and manage to put it in a larger than expected number.

[Skye]

He took all this time and did no Senate or house forecast too. Ugh.

They released it separately in September for the 2016 election, I don't know what you guys are complaining about.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1293599611249135627

Yesssss, keep this going.

[Skye]

Here they explain the design: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-designed-the-look-of-our-2020-forecast/?ex_cid=story-twitter

Ultimately, we chose a fairly simple structure for displaying the presidential forecast, leaving behind some of the more complicated user experiences. The final version is modular and the pieces of the forecast are visualized on cards. Each card gives the reader a different lens on the election. Some also offer a chance to explore deeper by switching tabs or hovering on elements like dots or lines. This structure also helped us nail our goal of designing for flexibility.

Still no explanation as to why there isn't a map though.

[Skye]

The most cursed thing about these model wars is that Biden is going to win so the discussion of which model was correct will never be answered and they'll keep fighting over it.

[Skye]

The model now shows decimals when you toggle the popular vote.

Current popular vote prediction is Biden 52.4 - Trump 46.3

[Skye]

The model now shows decimals when you toggle the popular vote.

Current popular vote prediction is Biden 52.4 - Trump 46.3

Has anyone questioned Silver why his model takes for granted that the race will tighten?
I mean there are plenty of cases where the opposite happened.

FWIW, he also tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1294372448335532034

[Skye]

I found this too funny not to share here:

https://twitter.com/ne0liberal/status/1300480145334165507

[Skye]

So chance of Biden winning by double-digits (30%) is higher than Trump winning the EC (26%).

Huh.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/galendruke/status/1306723234872791043