538 model & poll tracker thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

They are doing the absolute most though to still say that Trump has a chance. Yes, does he have a chance? of course. But Biden has a +9 lead in the polls right now, which is major. And yet we're still hearing the takes of "BUT TRUMP CAN STILL WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE!!!"

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1273594200014102530

Good.  People need to keep reminding themselves of that until all the votes have been cast.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1276128058249039874

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monday will be the 4th anniversary of the launch of the 2016 model.

I do think that it'll take longer this time. If I had to take a guess: they do like their numerically significant stunts, so maybe July 23rd, AKA the "100 days until the election" point.

Isn't 100 days before the election July 26th?

[GeorgiaModerate]

See Nate Silver's Twitter feed.  They made an adjustment to the way they handle partisan polls and it may be what's affecting the average here.  The RCP and Economist averages have been quite stable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1287863200570994689

[GeorgiaModerate]

We'll see what the finished product looks like, but my first thought on reading those tweets was "they're trying too hard".

[GeorgiaModerate]

They are just discussing their graphics and how they are going to present their model. I imagine the data is fake. Chill.

The tweet thread even says it has fake data.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1288146790408228864

[GeorgiaModerate]

What we need is a model to predict the release date of the 538 model.

[GeorgiaModerate]

i've just given up at this point lol

Me too, I have moved to JHK and predictit.

Try The Economist's model too.  It's good. 

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

[GeorgiaModerate]

Maybe he's going to release the Prez, Senate, and House model all at once? Didn't he release them separately in 2016? (at least Prez and then Senate/House later?)

Yes, they were separate in 2016.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What do we think of the Economist’s model? I like it a lot, especially cuz it uses state polls where it can. It has the most realistic results I’ve seen.

I like it, and am also impressed that Morris has published the source code on Github and encourages others to play with it and provide feedback and suggestions for improvement.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1293527824876306433

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Cohn's critique:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1293534832010702851

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1293649581356580867

[GeorgiaModerate]

I wonder why they still have Trump favored to win NC even though on average Biden wins by 6 points nationally

Lets just say that 2012 and 2016 both voted republican. I still believe NC still leans Trump and I'll have to see the results show me otherwise before I'd believe otherwise. Same with Ga and Florida.

One of these things is not like the others.  Florida went Democratic in 2012.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden's chances have been inching up...he's gone from 71 to 72 to 73 since the model launched.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1294372448335532034

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1295117455984136192

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1295335388811333632

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does 538's forecast incorporate district polls?

I don't see how it can have Trump +5 right now if all of these district by district polls are being inputted as well...

I doubt any of the models handle district-level polls, or would even want to.  If the district polls have implications to a statewide result (which after all is the important thing), then that should show up in statewide polls at some point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The model has now been out for a week, and the probabilities haven't really budged.   Biden's polling average lead has gone from 8.2 last Wednesday to 8.5 today, and his probability of winning has only gone from 71% to 72%.  But shouldn't the model be steadily becoming more confident over time even if the polls don't change much?

It’s a reverse-engineered model designed to give Nate Silver cover if he ends up being wrong. I wouldn’t expect much.

Yep.

They said when launching it that polling becomes much more predictable closer to the election. So the model doesn't become steadily more confident, it remains uncertain for a fair amount of time and then rapidly gets more certain as we're closer to the election.

I think they specifically said that the time factor would start having more effect around mid to late September.

[GeorgiaModerate]

@LimoLiberal or a mod: can you please remove (model coming on Wednesday) from the title?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Meanwhile, Biden's chances in the Economist model have been gradually climbing back up and were 90% in last night's run...let's say if they change significantly this morning.  They update the model 2 or 3 times a day, usually morning and evening, and sometimes in the middle of the day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Elliott also has a good thread on why boosting Republican turnout is not, by itself, enough to give Trump a win.  It starts here:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1298469783164391425