538 model & poll tracker thread

[wbrocks67]

I’ve been predicting the NPV would be Biden +9 for three months now!

So the tipping point is 2.3 points to the right of the nation, compared with 2.9 points I believe in 2016.

Interesting that they project Biden to win CA by less than Hillary won it

these aren't their projections, they're just polling averages

their full model (projection) hasn't come out yet

[wbrocks67]

all i have to say is THANK GOD we don't have to use those hacks at RCP anymore

[wbrocks67]

all i have to say is THANK GOD we don't have to use those hacks at RCP anymore

They are hacks but why would it matter for polling averages?  they're just averaging recent polls.

because 538 includes all polls (or 99% of polls) - RCP has probably excluded at least 50% of the national polls we've gotten over the last week. They don't include Morning Consult, Reuters/Ipsos, Firehouse/Optimus, Redfield, the other YouGov polls we get thru the week, and those are just the ones I can think of the top of my head. Their tracker is just wholly incomplete

[wbrocks67]

They are doing the absolute most though to still say that Trump has a chance. Yes, does he have a chance? of course. But Biden has a +9 lead in the polls right now, which is major. And yet we're still hearing the takes of "BUT TRUMP CAN STILL WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE!!!"

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1273594200014102530

[wbrocks67]

They are doing the absolute most though to still say that Trump has a chance. Yes, does he have a chance? of course. But Biden has a +9 lead in the polls right now, which is major. And yet we're still hearing the takes of "BUT TRUMP CAN STILL WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE!!!"

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1273594200014102530

He can, though.  It's still four months and change until Election Day. 

Things can change and it does the Democrats no favors to be complacent. 

Analyzing what the polls are saying =/= complacency

[wbrocks67]

538 is being super lazy this year. There's no excuse for the model not being out yet when the primaries have been done for months and even the 2016 version came out sooner.

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone else feel like their national tracker is a bit jumpy? New Biden +7 and +8 polls this morning made their average drop nearly an entire point, yet when Biden got the +15 WaPo poll, it barely budged the average.  It feels like the good polls don't push it up nearly as much as the "lower" polls drop it.

Not to mention, yesterday, Trump was at 41.6%, then he got a Trump 38 and Trump 40 polls, but somehow his average got pushed *up* to 41.9%.... am I missing something?

[wbrocks67]

Thanks to it being all online polls + Rasmussen, Biden's lead has dropped over 1% in the past day

[wbrocks67]

Is Biden’s lead shrinking finally? I feel like this was inevitable, not even because Biden is a bad candidate or anything, it’s because hate for a president can only burn for so long before things normalize.

no its bc all we've gotten so far this week is online polls, half of which are junky

[wbrocks67]

Arizona's last polls are +4, +5, +5, +6, and even.

Average is +2.4? I don't get how they're doing this

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the fact that it was at +9.6, and now 2 full points, b/c of +7 and +8 polls, even though there have been TWO +15 polls in the mix at the same doesn't make sense to me.

[wbrocks67]

are they just not gonna publish the model or... i mean, it's almost august FFS

[wbrocks67]

It's honestly a disgrace that their model isn't up yet. What is the hold up?!

[wbrocks67]

Nate on his podcast released a few hours ago said he's 98.7% done, but there will be a bit of a delay of when it is released and that he is not rushing anymore to release it.

Nor should he rush it. He doesn't have an obligation to release one at all

I mean, he does though? He runs a politics website that relies on advertising dollars, especially after it was bought by ABC. They need clicks and views and the forecast is a huge part of the website every 4 years.

[wbrocks67]

omg but also who cares about the graphics at this point? they've been teasing this sh**t for what feels like forever. just release the damn thing

[wbrocks67]

LOL @ the people saying Silver has no duty to release his model. He literally runs an election/politics website. That is what they do!!!! Not to mention now he has a duty to get web traffic for ABC, and the model is a huge part of that.

Silver continues to delay it and just tweet bad COVID takes. Not sure what his issue is.

[wbrocks67]

i've just given up at this point lol

[wbrocks67]

Silver doesn't want to be wrong that what taking him so long.

tbh... this.

[wbrocks67]

Silver doesn't want to be wrong that what taking him so long.

He has a model that estimates the probability of each candidate winning.  How can he be wrong?  I guess he could put one candidate at 100.0% and then have that candidate lose, but that’s really the only way—and he’s obviously not going to do that.

I’d say that the so-called delay is really just impatience by people wanting to see it.  He probably doesn’t have any kind of deadline beyond planning to release it when it’s ready to go.

The 2016 version was released in *June*. There's gotta be a reason.

[wbrocks67]

At this point I just want it b/c I want a better aggregate for senate polls too, since RCP doesn't include even half the ones 538 does.

[wbrocks67]

Nate did say on his last podcast he was done with the model and implied he was in no rush to release it

like what??? he HAS to be worried about how it's going to be received. "no rush to release it" yet we're going to be approaching two months later than 2016?

[wbrocks67]

This is starting to become a bit of a joke, really. If Silver doesn't think his model is important enough to release a few months before the election, then why even release it at all.

Honestly, this should have been out for at least a month already, we have been getting plenty of polls for a long time now.

yeah, the "it's finished but i'm in no rush" thing truly has me gobsmacked. like what?? lmao.

[wbrocks67]

Maybe he's going to release the Prez, Senate, and House model all at once? Didn't he release them separately in 2016? (at least Prez and then Senate/House later?)

[wbrocks67]

Release date: Wednesday morning

TY. doing the lords work.

love how Biden just had a +10 poll in NC and he's still at +2.5 in the average

[wbrocks67]

This might have been asked, but does the model also include Senate, House and gubernatorial races?

given how long we've waited, i sure hope so