2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Torie]

Vosem said that the Congressional maps is very unlikely to be overturned because the only argument the WISC could use to do so would actually undermine and diminish its own power, but he didn't elaborate on how. I'm interested in hearing that because that sounds rather strange.

The new WI Supreme Court judge said the legislative maps were rigged, and they are gerrymandered, but she did not say that as to the Congressional map, which isn't really gerrymandered, and I think the thought is that the judge is not going to toss that map because it should be gerrymandered to achieve proportionality. That would be pretty radical, particularly based on vague equality language in the WI Constitution. But she can probably go there if she wants without SCOTUS spanking her, because the legislature never passed a map, and the existing one was drawn by her own court as a least change map before she showed up.

But Vosem can speak for himself.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Vosem said that the Congressional maps is very unlikely to be overturned because the only argument the WISC could use to do so would actually undermine and diminish its own power, but he didn't elaborate on how. I'm interested in hearing that because that sounds rather strange.

The new WI Supreme Court judge said the legislative maps were rigged, and they are gerrymandered, but she did not say that as to the Congressional map, which isn't really gerrymandered, and I think the thought is that the judge is not going to toss that map because it should be gerrymandered to achieve proportionality. That would be pretty radical, particularly based on vague equality language in the WI Constitution. But she can probably go there if she wants without SCOTUS spanking her, because the legislature never passed a map, and the existing one was drawn by her own court as a least change map before she showed up.

But Vosem can speak for himself.

What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.  Don’t like it?  Tell Republicans to support a national ban on gerrymandering.  Until then, I’m all for Democratic State Supreme Courts finding any arbitrary reason they can to draw Democratic gerrymanders.

[Torie]

Vosem said that the Congressional maps is very unlikely to be overturned because the only argument the WISC could use to do so would actually undermine and diminish its own power, but he didn't elaborate on how. I'm interested in hearing that because that sounds rather strange.

The new WI Supreme Court judge said the legislative maps were rigged, and they are gerrymandered, but she did not say that as to the Congressional map, which isn't really gerrymandered, and I think the thought is that the judge is not going to toss that map because it should be gerrymandered to achieve proportionality. That would be pretty radical, particularly based on vague equality language in the WI Constitution. But she can probably go there if she wants without SCOTUS spanking her, because the legislature never passed a map, and the existing one was drawn by her own court as a least change map before she showed up.

But Vosem can speak for himself.

What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.  Don’t like it?  Tell Republicans to support a national ban on gerrymandering.  Until then, I’m all for Democratic State Supreme Courts finding any arbitrary reason they can to draw Democratic gerrymanders.

Of course you are! And your favorite CD map is probably the one from state of the Land of Lincoln. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Vosem said that the Congressional maps is very unlikely to be overturned because the only argument the WISC could use to do so would actually undermine and diminish its own power, but he didn't elaborate on how. I'm interested in hearing that because that sounds rather strange.

The new WI Supreme Court judge said the legislative maps were rigged, and they are gerrymandered, but she did not say that as to the Congressional map, which isn't really gerrymandered, and I think the thought is that the judge is not going to toss that map because it should be gerrymandered to achieve proportionality. That would be pretty radical, particularly based on vague equality language in the WI Constitution. But she can probably go there if she wants without SCOTUS spanking her, because the legislature never passed a map, and the existing one was drawn by her own court as a least change map before she showed up.

But Vosem can speak for himself.

What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.  Don’t like it?  Tell Republicans to support a national ban on gerrymandering.  Until then, I’m all for Democratic State Supreme Courts finding any arbitrary reason they can to draw Democratic gerrymanders.

Of course you are! And your favorite CD map is probably the one from state of the Land of Lincoln.  

Nope, not even close!  Michigan has a fair map that accurately reflects the state’s lean.  I don’t like the IL map nor do I like Democratic gerrymanders in general, but I am even more opposed to unilateral disarmament.

[walleye26]

The WI Dept of Administration released their population estimates for Jan 1, 2023. They get this data by looking at birth and death records, housing/building permits, and correctional and university numbers. They estimate since the 2020 census, Wisconsin has added 58,282 residents, or a 0.99% increase from 2020. Key numbers and counties:
Dane: +28,552, a 5.08% increase;
MKE -2,230, a 0.24% decrease;
Waukesha +4,560, a 1.12% increase;
Brown +4,493, a 1.67% increase;
Outagamie +2,958, a 1.55% increase;
Washington +1,578, a 1.15% increase;
Eau Claire +3,097, a 2.93% increase;
LaX +1,581, a 1.31% increase;
St. Croix +3,811, a 4.07% increase;
Ozaukee +1,196, a 1.31% increase; and
Portage +1,213, a 1.72% increase.

Losers, by percent:
Grant, -1.35%
Ashland, -1.25%
Dodge, -1.03%
Price, -0.95%
Richland/Langlade, -0.92%

Largest percentage growth was Calumet at 6%, followed by Dane (5.08%) and St Croix (4.07%).

Full data: https://doa.wi.gov/DIR/Prelim_Est_Co_2023.pdf

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The WI Dept of Administration released their population estimates for Jan 1, 2023. They get this data by looking at birth and death records, housing/building permits, and correctional and university numbers. They estimate since the 2020 census, Wisconsin has added 58,282 residents, or a 0.99% increase from 2020. Key numbers and counties:
Dane: +28,552, a 5.08% increase;
MKE -2,230, a 0.24% decrease;
Waukesha +4,560, a 1.12% increase;
Brown +4,493, a 1.67% increase;
Outagamie +2,958, a 1.55% increase;
Washington +1,578, a 1.15% increase;
Eau Claire +3,097, a 2.93% increase;
LaX +1,581, a 1.31% increase;
St. Croix +3,811, a 4.07% increase;
Ozaukee +1,196, a 1.31% increase; and
Portage +1,213, a 1.72% increase.

Losers, by percent:
Grant, -1.35%
Ashland, -1.25%
Dodge, -1.03%
Price, -0.95%
Richland/Langlade, -0.92%

Largest percentage growth was Calumet at 6%, followed by Dane (5.08%) and St Croix (4.07%).

Full data: https://doa.wi.gov/DIR/Prelim_Est_Co_2023.pdf

Almost a full half of WI's population gains since 2020 are in Dane County. wow.

[indietraveler]

I'm all here for Dane County saving WI. It would be interesting to see the in state/out of state breakdown these updated numbers.

[walleye26]

I'm all here for Dane County saving WI. It would be interesting to see the in state/out of state breakdown these updated numbers.

They don’t release those, but it would be cool to see. I’m willing to bet a lot of the St Croix County growth is Twin Cities spillover.

Also when you factor in Portage, Eau Claire, and LaX Counties, the Democratic ones are outpacing the GOP ones. From personal experience I also know a lot of the growth in Brown is from younger (20/30s) people moving in for jobs. They are probably purple or blue leaning.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm all here for Dane County saving WI. It would be interesting to see the in state/out of state breakdown these updated numbers.

They don’t release those, but it would be cool to see. I’m willing to bet a lot of the St Croix County growth is Twin Cities spillover.

Also when you factor in Portage, Eau Claire, and LaX Counties, the Democratic ones are outpacing the GOP ones. From personal experience I also know a lot of the growth in Brown is from younger (20/30s) people moving in for jobs. They are probably purple or blue leaning.

Wisconsin has decently good growth patterns for Dems; the only thing that's not great for them is that Milwaukee has been shrinking but even that seems to have slowed down a bit recently and many of the new folks seem to be high turnout white liberals in downtown, Shorewood, Fox Point, ect.

However, favorable growth has been overcome by the GOP flipping an insane number of rural voters. Insane to think Biden did better than Bush 2000 based on the County map, but since 2000 Dane County's vote net for Dems has near tripeled.

Biggest question for what happens to WI long term imo is what happens to the Fox Valley (Green Bay, Appleton, Oshkosh, ect). In the past 2 decades, there have been mixed signs from this region.

For reference below are County Pres maps for 2000 (Gore + 0.2) and 2020 (Biden + 0.6):




It's proof that GOP gains in WI rurals can and have been offset by gains in urban and suburban areas.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another advantage for Dems in Madison is so far, it's very much been a city that's being built up rather than built out. The fastest growth is actually from increasing density in the downtown. Long term, this means there's more potential for sprawl to add more population to Madison metro.

Interesting how policies incentivizing large apartment blocks in the downtown can be directly to Dems political success statewide.

[walleye26]

Another advantage for Dems in Madison is so far, it's very much been a city that's being built up rather than built out. The fastest growth is actually from increasing density in the downtown. Long term, this means there's more potential for sprawl to add more population to Madison metro.

Interesting how policies incentivizing large apartment blocks in the downtown can be directly to Dems political success statewide.

The way I see it is this: WI Dems have a big rurals problem, but the WISGOP has an even bigger suburbs problem.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1692171923315122445

[Minnesota Mike]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2023/09/12/vos-pushes-for-new-electoral-maps-to-bypass-liberal-court/70835377007/

MADISON - Assembly Speaker Robin Vos is backing off threats of impeaching the newest Wisconsin Supreme Court justice and is instead deploying a new maneuver to avoid having the liberal-controlled court weigh in on the state's electoral maps: writing new ones.

After previously opposing such plans for years, Vos and Assembly Republicans announced Tuesday they would pursue legislation this week that seeks to use "an Iowa-style nonpartisan redistricting" model that would allow the nonpartisan Legislative Reference Bureau to write new legislative maps instead of partisans.

The move is aimed at bypassing lawsuits before the state Supreme Court that seek to rewrite the current GOP-favorable maps that were adopted in 2021.

Devil is the details and they are not releasing any details so I'm mighty suspicious.  What do they mean by "Iowa-style"? At a congressional level "Iowa-style" would not work because you will have to split counties because Milwaukee County is > than the ideal CD population.

I am in favor of a non partisan body drawing the maps even though in a state like Wisconsin that gives Republicans an advantage due to how the population is distributed.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2023/09/12/vos-pushes-for-new-electoral-maps-to-bypass-liberal-court/70835377007/

MADISON - Assembly Speaker Robin Vos is backing off threats of impeaching the newest Wisconsin Supreme Court justice and is instead deploying a new maneuver to avoid having the liberal-controlled court weigh in on the state's electoral maps: writing new ones.

After previously opposing such plans for years, Vos and Assembly Republicans announced Tuesday they would pursue legislation this week that seeks to use "an Iowa-style nonpartisan redistricting" model that would allow the nonpartisan Legislative Reference Bureau to write new legislative maps instead of partisans.

The move is aimed at bypassing lawsuits before the state Supreme Court that seek to rewrite the current GOP-favorable maps that were adopted in 2021.

Devil is the details and they are not releasing any details so I'm mighty suspicious.  What do they mean by "Iowa-style"? At a congressional level "Iowa-style" would not work because you will have to split counties because Milwaukee County is > than the ideal CD population.

I am in favor of a non partisan body drawing the maps even though in a state like Wisconsin that gives Republicans an advantage due to how the population is distributed.

Presumably it means a nonpartisan agency/computer draws the map and the legislature can approve or reject it.

[politicallefty]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2023/09/12/vos-pushes-for-new-electoral-maps-to-bypass-liberal-court/70835377007/

MADISON - Assembly Speaker Robin Vos is backing off threats of impeaching the newest Wisconsin Supreme Court justice and is instead deploying a new maneuver to avoid having the liberal-controlled court weigh in on the state's electoral maps: writing new ones.

After previously opposing such plans for years, Vos and Assembly Republicans announced Tuesday they would pursue legislation this week that seeks to use "an Iowa-style nonpartisan redistricting" model that would allow the nonpartisan Legislative Reference Bureau to write new legislative maps instead of partisans.

The move is aimed at bypassing lawsuits before the state Supreme Court that seek to rewrite the current GOP-favorable maps that were adopted in 2021.

Devil is the details and they are not releasing any details so I'm mighty suspicious.  What do they mean by "Iowa-style"? At a congressional level "Iowa-style" would not work because you will have to split counties because Milwaukee County is > than the ideal CD population.

I am in favor of a non partisan body drawing the maps even though in a state like Wisconsin that gives Republicans an advantage due to how the population is distributed.

Presumably it means a nonpartisan agency/computer draws the map and the legislature can approve or reject it.

Of course, all the Legislature has to do is reject it multiple times and authority reverts back to them and they're free to gerrymander as they please. If Wisconsin Republicans are serious about redistricting reform, there are serious ways to do it. I'm not sure anyone thinks this is a sincere or serious proposal even for what it is.

[walleye26]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2023/09/12/vos-pushes-for-new-electoral-maps-to-bypass-liberal-court/70835377007/

MADISON - Assembly Speaker Robin Vos is backing off threats of impeaching the newest Wisconsin Supreme Court justice and is instead deploying a new maneuver to avoid having the liberal-controlled court weigh in on the state's electoral maps: writing new ones.

After previously opposing such plans for years, Vos and Assembly Republicans announced Tuesday they would pursue legislation this week that seeks to use "an Iowa-style nonpartisan redistricting" model that would allow the nonpartisan Legislative Reference Bureau to write new legislative maps instead of partisans.

The move is aimed at bypassing lawsuits before the state Supreme Court that seek to rewrite the current GOP-favorable maps that were adopted in 2021.

Devil is the details and they are not releasing any details so I'm mighty suspicious.  What do they mean by "Iowa-style"? At a congressional level "Iowa-style" would not work because you will have to split counties because Milwaukee County is > than the ideal CD population.

I am in favor of a non partisan body drawing the maps even though in a state like Wisconsin that gives Republicans an advantage due to how the population is distributed.

Presumably it means a nonpartisan agency/computer draws the map and the legislature can approve or reject it.

Of course, all the Legislature has to do is reject it multiple times and authority reverts back to them and they're free to gerrymander as they please. If Wisconsin Republicans are serious about redistricting reform, there are serious ways to do it. I'm not sure anyone thinks this is a sincere or serious proposal even for what it is.

It’s not a serious proposal. I think a serious proposal would be a nonpartisan agency draw up 3 versions, have the legislature rank them 1,2,3, hold public hearings on them, and then the nonpartisan agency selects one.

[kwabbit]

Another advantage for Dems in Madison is so far, it's very much been a city that's being built up rather than built out. The fastest growth is actually from increasing density in the downtown. Long term, this means there's more potential for sprawl to add more population to Madison metro.

Interesting how policies incentivizing large apartment blocks in the downtown can be directly to Dems political success statewide.

Sprawl might lead the transplants to be less Democratic, but Dane County could support a few million people at the typical SFH suburban density. It's not going to fill up. It has the same size as Cook County, IL.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is what it looks like when you see the sign showing that you're entering Dane County. The Madison area in terms of its urban cluster doesn't really leave Dane County, although obviously there are probably plenty of people who commute from places like Sauk City and even Janesville, as evidenced by voting patterns.

What's odd is that even the rural townships in Dane County are quite D.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is another interesting example more remote and away from any major highways. This is in a township that voted for Biden by almost 13 points. That's quite weak for Dane County but in the rural Midwest places that look like that voting even the inverse of 55 Trump - 42 Biden would be way more Democratic than expected. The majority of people who frequent that bar and grill are Democrats....not what you'd expect.

That's a very standard look for those type of places in the rural Midwest, one thing I've always found odd is the signs out front with a soda and/or beer brand (this has both), obviously very old with how outdated the logos are but did places like that ever have to advertise that they carry 7-Up and Pabst Blue Ribbon? Like what bar/restaurant actually doesn't?

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is another interesting example more remote and away from any major highways. This is in a township that voted for Biden by almost 13 points. That's quite weak for Dane County but in the rural Midwest places that look like that voting even the inverse of 55 Trump - 42 Biden would be way more Democratic than expected. The majority of people who frequent that bar and grill are Democrats....not what you'd expect.

That's a very standard look for those type of places in the rural Midwest, one thing I've always found odd is the signs out front with a soda and/or beer brand (this has both), obviously very old with how outdated the logos are but did places like that ever have to advertise that they carry 7-Up and Pabst Blue Ribbon? Like what bar/restaurant actually doesn't?

I think it's a mix of cultural stuff and self-sorting going on that causes the white rurals around greater Madison to lean D. There's literally no demographic reason they'd be more liberal (i.e. greater non-white population, higher educational attainment, ect). Only thing is that they might be slightly more secular, but that still doesn't explain the huge difference in partisanship to Demographically simillar rurals.

[Gass3268]

Redistricting history of Wisconsin:

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1702771345266725133?s=46

[SilverStar]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1710422196680585286

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1710422196680585286

You go girl!

[Oryxslayer]

Legislative redistricting case to be heard November 21st, just in time for Turkey. Lets ee if the GOP lets things progress in usual and orderly fashion.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like the most objective position on this case is the Congressional map isn't really a gerrymander, but still leads to an outcome that is heavily skewed. If anything I'd argue that the current WI-01 and WI-03 are relatively favorable to Dems, even though both lean R. To make either lean D you basically have to crack Madison/Milwaukee.

The State Leg maps are clearly gerrymanders. Bigger question is the fix to draw partisan blind maps, or maps aimed at producing a partisan equitable outcome.