2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Roll Roons]

Is the new WI-01 trending D? 538 says it's R+6 but they usually go to the right of the 2020 result. Could this be up for grabs in 2024 or a 2026 R midterm?

Idk if it's trending D, but it's only about Trump +2. Definitely a possible target in the future.

[Minnesota Mike]

CAN'T STOP WINNING

But for real, kinda sad how a "win" for Democrats in a 50-50 state is STILL biased in favor of Republicans

The political geography in Wisconsin just sucks for Democrats.

[Nyvin]

Good, because there never was any reason for WI-1 to go into Waukesha to begin with.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Inb4 MT Treasurer

[Gracile]

Is the new WI-01 trending D? 538 says it's R+6 but they usually go to the right of the 2020 result. Could this be up for grabs in 2024 or a 2026 R midterm?

No, it trended Republican in both 2016 and 2020 (It's an Obama +~5.5 > Trump +2.7 > Trump +2.0 district).

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/WI_Forward/status/1482557812848963585?s=20&t=yPx8zaS0HGK...

So this map should deny R legislative supermajorities pretty consistently, right?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/WI_Forward/status/1482557812848963585?s=20&t=yPx8zaS0HGK...

So this map should deny R legislative supermajorities pretty consistently, right?

In the Assembly yes, Senate will be close early in the decade.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/WI_Forward/status/1482557812848963585?s=20&t=yPx8zaS0HGK...

So this map should deny R legislative supermajorities pretty consistently, right?

In the Assembly yes, Senate will be close early in the decade.

Won’t the senate probably be 22-11 Republican in 2022, which is the minimum for a supermajority?  Republicans should pick up 25 and 31, but Dems should pick up the new 5, which is a 58% Biden district.

In the Assembly, I assume Dems lose their two seats within SD-25 and AD-13 in the Milwaukee suburbs and the WOW.  That would put them at 35 seats.  Is there a new seat somewhere that they are favored to pickup?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/WI_Forward/status/1482557812848963585?s=20&t=yPx8zaS0HGK...

So this map should deny R legislative supermajorities pretty consistently, right?

In the Assembly yes, Senate will be close early in the decade.

Won’t the senate probably be 22-11 Republican in 2022, which is the minimum for a supermajority?  Republicans should pick up 25 and 31, but Dems should pick up the new 5, which is a 58% Biden district.

In the Assembly, I assume Dems lose their two seats within SD-25 and AD-13 in the Milwaukee suburbs and the WOW.  That would put them at 35 seats.  Is there a new seat somewhere that they are favored to pickup?

I imagine one seat shifts to Dane.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/WI_Forward/status/1482557812848963585?s=20&t=yPx8zaS0HGK...

So this map should deny R legislative supermajorities pretty consistently, right?

In the Assembly yes, Senate will be close early in the decade.

Won’t the senate probably be 22-11 Republican in 2022, which is the minimum for a supermajority?  Republicans should pick up 25 and 31, but Dems should pick up the new 5, which is a 58% Biden district.

In the Assembly, I assume Dems lose their two seats within SD-25 and AD-13 in the Milwaukee suburbs and the WOW.  That would put them at 35 seats.  Is there a new seat somewhere that they are favored to pickup?

I imagine one seat shifts to Dane.

When I drew my House district map, I verified that to indeed be the case, and so posted.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/WI_Forward/status/1482557812848963585?s=20&t=yPx8zaS0HGK...

So this map should deny R legislative supermajorities pretty consistently, right?

In the Assembly yes, Senate will be close early in the decade.

Won’t the senate probably be 22-11 Republican in 2022, which is the minimum for a supermajority?  Republicans should pick up 25 and 31, but Dems should pick up the new 5, which is a 58% Biden district.

In the Assembly, I assume Dems lose their two seats within SD-25 and AD-13 in the Milwaukee suburbs and the WOW.  That would put them at 35 seats.  Is there a new seat somewhere that they are favored to pickup?

I imagine one seat shifts to Dane.

AD-13 (Brookfield/Wauwatosa) is Biden +4.4, AD-73 (Superior) is Biden +0.7, and AD-47 (Ashland/Bayfield) is Trump +1.6.

AD-14 (Milwaukee/Wauwatosa) is now Biden +60.3 and becomes majority BVAP
AD-21 (eastern Oak Creek) is now Biden +1.6 after adding Cudahy and losing a chunk of Oak Creek
AD-37 goes from maybe being 1/3rd a part of Dane County, to now being like 2/3rds in Dane County by taking the rapidly growing western Sun Prairie, a large chunk of northeast Madison, and the town of Burke, while losing the city of Watertown.
AD-51 (Iowa County) is now Biden +5.9 after adding eastern Iowa County and the New Glarus area of Green County
AD-55 (Neenah) is now Biden +0.4 after losing some rural areas and taking in part of the city of Menasha
AD-85 (Wausau) is now Biden +1.9 after losing a lot of rural ares and gaining the village of Weston
AD-88 (eastern Green Bay) is now Biden +3.6 after losing some rurals and shifting precincts in Green Bay

SD-05 (Inner western Milwaukee suburbs) should flip to a Democrat and SD-13 will probably flip mid-decade giving the growth in Dane County relative to the rest of the district. Should make up for probable future loses in SD-25 and SD-31. Biden also narrowly won SD-19 (Appleton), so that could be competative all decade.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/WI_Forward/status/1482557812848963585?s=20&t=yPx8zaS0HGK...

So this map should deny R legislative supermajorities pretty consistently, right?

In the Assembly yes, Senate will be close early in the decade.

Won’t the senate probably be 22-11 Republican in 2022, which is the minimum for a supermajority?  Republicans should pick up 25 and 31, but Dems should pick up the new 5, which is a 58% Biden district.

In the Assembly, I assume Dems lose their two seats within SD-25 and AD-13 in the Milwaukee suburbs and the WOW.  That would put them at 35 seats.  Is there a new seat somewhere that they are favored to pickup?

I imagine one seat shifts to Dane.

AD-13 (Brookfield/Wauwatosa) is Biden +4.4, AD-73 (Superior) is Biden +0.7, and AD-47 (Ashland/Bayfield) is Trump +1.6.

AD-14 (Milwaukee/Wauwatosa) is now Biden +60.3 and becomes majority BVAP
AD-21 (eastern Oak Creek) is now Biden +1.6 after adding Cudahy and losing a chunk of Oak Creek
AD-37 goes from maybe being 1/3rd a part of Dane County, to now being like 2/3rds in Dane County by taking the rapidly growing western Sun Prairie, a large chunk of northeast Madison, and the town of Burke, while losing the city of Watertown.
AD-51 (Iowa County) is now Biden +5.9 after adding eastern Iowa County and the New Glarus area of Green County
AD-55 (Neenah) is now Biden +0.4 after losing some rural areas and taking in part of the city of Menasha
AD-85 (Wausau) is now Biden +1.9 after losing a lot of rural ares and gaining the village of Weston
AD-88 (eastern Green Bay) is now Biden +3.6 after losing some rurals and shifting precincts in Green Bay

SD-05 (Inner western Milwaukee suburbs) should flip to a Democrat and SD-13 will probably flip mid-decade giving the growth in Dane County relative to the rest of the district. Should make up for probable future loses in SD-25 and SD-31. Biden also narrowly won SD-19 (Appleton), so that could be competative all decade.

Looks like AD-37 moves to 64% Biden.  Should be an easy Dem pickup and likely the only one.  So pretty good chance that the Assembly is 63-36 after 2022.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

A short Twitter thread with some of my algorithmic redistricting group’s analysis of Wisconsin:
https://twitter.com/Nick_Goedert/status/1499801086529523713

We generated congressional maps of Wisconsin using five different mixes of objectives and measured the compactness and bias of the results.  We are currently working on a paper doing this for every state.

[BoiseBoy]

Republicans are going to appeal to SCOTUS:
https://twitter.com/onwnews/status/1499879127221944325?s=21

[lfromnj]

Republicans are going to appeal to SCOTUS:
https://twitter.com/onwnews/status/1499879127221944325?s=21

Note specifically over Milwaukee legislative districts as far as I understand. The fact that all 9 majority black districts are exactly 50-51% black is suspicious as written in the brief but the key word as of right now being used is if race is the predominant factor. However race was not the predominant factor for the court choosing the map. Instead it was least change which was fulfilled .

[lfromnj]

A short Twitter thread with some of my algorithmic redistricting group’s analysis of Wisconsin:
https://twitter.com/Nick_Goedert/status/1499801086529523713

We generated congressional maps of Wisconsin using five different mixes of objectives and measured the compactness and bias of the results.  We are currently working on a paper doing this for every state.

https://twitter.com/Nick_Goedert/status/1499597859607437323



It's important to note the 2011 WI map is still heavily based on the 2000 map like CT is. The biggest changes are WI03/WI07 border but at this point it is basically a D gerrymander and Ozaukee going to WI06. I am not sure if that was done for partisan purposes or if to increase the influence of WOW.

[Drew]

Here are “sliding” comparison maps of the old and new Congressional and Legislative maps.

https://projects.jsonline.com/topics/redistricting/2022/wisconsin-congressional-legislature-redistricting-maps-2022.html

[Gass3268]

I have a breakdown series for thew Assembly Map coming soon.

[BoiseBoy]

All GOP congressman from Wisconsin are asking the Supreme Court to block the new map, claiming it is unconstitutional.

https://twitter.com/WISCTV_News3/status/1501694361364582406?s=20&t=zfC-JBkS0...

[Gass3268]

Welp, no idea what's going to happen now. So much for the Purcell principle. Also this is just for the legislative maps. Might be over the creation of a new majority black Assembly district, but no idea because there is no opinion. Not sure what guidance the Wisconsin Supreme Court is supposed to take from this.

https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1506667215554326534?s=20&t=hylhQRqh...

[Sestak]

So the SCOTUS’ official precedent now is just “do whatever creates more Republican seats”, yes? No reason otherwise for them to ban AL congressional redraw because “too close to the election” but then mandate WI congressional redraw other than the AL initial map was a GOP friendly draw.


The rule of law is dead.

[BoiseBoy]

Time to admit that, despite being a good idea in theory, the American system of government is heavily flawed and broken in practice.

[lfromnj]

I mean the way 7 black majority districts are drawn are suspicious (literally every one is 50.1% black) and it took a lot of contrite lines over that. However the predominant factor for the map being picked in the end was not racial. Kavanaugh is certainly being weird after the Alabama vote.

Also Ever's map was just awful IMO in that region atleast for the state senate. He focused on flipping Dale Kooyenga's state senate district but couldn't even flip a seat by pushing it into Dane County further and left it at Trump +5.

[Gass3268]

Found the decision, the court disagrees with the creation of a new majority black Assembly district. If the Evers map changed that, the Wisconsin Supreme Court would probably go with that.

Decision

[GALeftist]

BUT MUH PURCELL!!!!!!!!