2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Spectator]

I mean the court could always overrule the the Wisconsin Elections Commission, but that would probably invite SCOTUS to come in and invoke the Purcell principle. 2026 feels like the most likely scenario here.

Which is fine given that any likely new map would probably push WI from 6-2 R to 5-3 R. This is relatively low stakes.

I think this court would allow the same process to play out as they did for the state legislature maps, which I think would result in a 4-4 map or at the very last a 4-3-1 map.

WI-01 and WI-03 getting turned into mid- to high-single digit Biden seats seems likely. Not that hard to do if they’re willing to split Dane County.

[Spectator]

My guess is they'll go with something like this:



This WI-01 voted Biden +6 and Clinton +4. Even Russ Feingold won it by less than 1% in 2016.

WI-03 voted for Biden by a little over 5 points and for Hillary by over 3%. Steil might be able to hang on, but Van Orden would be done.

[patzer]

My guess is they'll go with something like this:



This WI-01 voted Biden +6 and Clinton +4. Even Russ Feingold won it by less than 1% in 2016.

WI-03 voted for Biden by a little over 5 points and for Hillary by over 3%. Steil might be able to hang on, but Van Orden would be done.

If they redraw the map there's no reason to still keep a major Republican bias.

[Tekken_Guy]

My guess is they'll go with something like this:



This WI-01 voted Biden +6 and Clinton +4. Even Russ Feingold won it by less than 1% in 2016.

WI-03 voted for Biden by a little over 5 points and for Hillary by over 3%. Steil might be able to hang on, but Van Orden would be done.

My hunch is they’ll also redraw the 8th by making a Green Bay to Oshkosh district that Trump won y single digit margins.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1761741889596723628

[Spectator]

My guess is they'll go with something like this:



This WI-01 voted Biden +6 and Clinton +4. Even Russ Feingold won it by less than 1% in 2016.

WI-03 voted for Biden by a little over 5 points and for Hillary by over 3%. Steil might be able to hang on, but Van Orden would be done.

If they redraw the map there's no reason to still keep a major Republican bias.

How is that map a Republican bias? The split is 4-4 in every statewide election post-2014.

[Devils30]

Make WI-3 a double digit Biden seat, then make WI-1 and WI-8 single digit seats that lean one way but winnable for the other side in 2010 and 2018 type years.

[Sol]

Make WI-3 a double digit Biden seat, then make WI-1 and WI-8 single digit seats that lean one way but winnable for the other side in 2010 and 2018 type years.

FYI, this requires dividing up Dane County like a roast chicken.

[Gass3268]

Make WI-3 a double digit Biden seat, then make WI-1 and WI-8 single digit seats that lean one way but winnable for the other side in 2010 and 2018 type years.

FYI, this requires dividing up Dane County like a roast chicken.

I was able to get WI-03 to a Biden +8 district by having it go from Eau Claire County to Rock County, with then adding the southwestern chunk of Dane County (including Oregon, Mt. Horeb, and Verona). Tried to see if there was a way to add Fitchburg, as that might actually get it into double digits, but it would then look super ugly.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1760711933982875760

Uggghhhh:

Evers' request is the latest development in the congressional map inquiry as Democrats face a tight deadline to put new maps in place with under nine months until the November election. The court has not publicly indicated it will review the motion, and the Wisconsin Elections Commission has said that any new maps must be in place by March 15 to take effect for 2024.

A whopping 22 days to get the whole process done :/

I'll take later over the status quo.

That said, hopefully New York's new maps more than make up for it.

Obviously, but the issue is that control of the House is considered a tossup right now, and if trump gets a trifecta we may lose our democracy, so every single seat is crucial.

And NY democrats have shown once again, predictably, that they are possibly the most inept democratic party with a majority in the country.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1760711933982875760

Uggghhhh:

Evers' request is the latest development in the congressional map inquiry as Democrats face a tight deadline to put new maps in place with under nine months until the November election. The court has not publicly indicated it will review the motion, and the Wisconsin Elections Commission has said that any new maps must be in place by March 15 to take effect for 2024.

A whopping 22 days to get the whole process done :/

I'll take later over the status quo.

That said, hopefully New York's new maps more than make up for it.

Obviously, but the issue is that control of the House is considered a tossup right now, and if trump gets a trifecta we may lose our democracy, so every single seat is crucial.

And NY democrats have shown once again, predictably, that they are possibly the most inept democratic party with a majority in the country.

Yeah, I think I jinxed it. Sorry, world!

[Stuart98]

Reminder that we can have a minimum possible county splits congressional map that's basically completely equal partisanship wise.

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder that we can have a minimum possible county splits congressional map that's basically completely equal partisanship wise.

SNIP

I'm only posting this cause the outcome I reached is seemingly so similar to yours. This was a map I drew a while back with specific goal of equal outcomes, and mostly achieved that with  4 = 5, 2 & 3 = 6 & 7, and 1 = 8. And while I definitely cut more counties and communities, things are still neat and follow the same geographic cores. And they are good cores given the state's human geography and patterns of development:

[Gass3268]

Working on a district by district breakdown here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=317251.msg9404105#msg9404105

SD-01 and its competent ADs has been posted. Should have SD-02 here soon.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1763678946242031846?t=ztJkl-QXl9n-Mfvlh...

However,  the congressional case I'd closed for now. As some here suspected,  it likely came too late.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1763678946242031846?t=ztJkl-QXl9n-Mfvlh...

However,  the congressional case I'd closed for now. As some here suspected,  it likely came too late.

Oh well, it will change for 2026 almost certainly.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1763678946242031846?t=ztJkl-QXl9n-Mfvlh...

However,  the congressional case I'd closed for now. As some here suspected,  it likely came too late.

Oh well, it will change for 2026 almost certainly.

I’m not sure, the fact they are Evers’ maps makes it tricky.

[Dan the Roman]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1763678946242031846?t=ztJkl-QXl9n-Mfvlh...

However,  the congressional case I'd closed for now. As some here suspected,  it likely came too late.

Oh well, it will change for 2026 almost certainly.

I’m not sure, the fact they are Evers’ maps makes it tricky.

Yes you have to figure out what is wrong with them. The WI SC majority has ruled that in the event there are no legal maps, partisan fairness is a major consideration, but are maps illegal solely because they are not balanced on a partisan basis.

You can't even argue they were drawn with partisan intent as they were Evers'

[Tekken_Guy]

Steil will be safe but Democrats still have a fighting chance of taking out Van Orden who has tons of baggage.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The geography in Wisconsin is just horrible for Democrats. It's similar to Nevada and Republicans. The issue is Milwuakee and ane county are just large enough to fit in their own CD. As a result, any compact map will eat those two areas up and there isn't anymore room to take in R votes. Wisconsin is a very distinctly regional map, and thus fair.

CD 1: Kenosha/Racine
CD 2: Madison area
CD 3: Driftless
CD 4: Milwaukee city
CD 5: Milwaukee suburbs
CD 6: Fox valley
CD 7: Northern Wisconsin
CD 8: Green Bay

Each CD consists of a specific geographical/populated region and I think the Wisconsin maps are probably the only state in the country with this level of seperation.

If you ask anyone in Wisconsin to split the state up into 8 pieces it likely comes out that way or something very similar.

[Devils30]

I think this was a Purcell principle case though. The court interfering too late could have been a problem.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1763678946242031846?t=ztJkl-QXl9n-Mfvlh...
However,  the congressional case I'd closed for now. As some here suspected,  it likely came too late.

Oh well, it will change for 2026 almost certainly.

In 2026 Democrats probably do well enough to crack any Republican gerrymander anyway.

[Dan the Roman]

I think this was a Purcell principle case though. The court interfering too late could have been a problem.

There is nothing wrong with the map.

The problem is the process. Which means you need to give the WISC a vehicle to overturn the previous courts ruling that in the absence of a legal map they should go with least change.

They didn't do that with the legislative maps. They ruled they were illegal due to continguity.

So the WISC probably needs some local government challenge as a vehicle to overturn the procedural precedent then have someone challenge the existance of any congressional map on the basis the process was illegal.

Otherwise you have Evers and the State AG having to explain why they are now contradicting all the arguments in favor of the map Evers drew.

This a sequencing issue, and if the Court wasn't going to redraw for 2024 anyway they can take some time to save people from squirming or risking perjury

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Van Orden will still lose