2030 Reapportionment: Nightmare Scenario for Democrats?
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April 27, 2024, 05:05:45 AM
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Author Topic: 2030 Reapportionment: Nightmare Scenario for Democrats?  (Read 845 times)
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #25 on: March 04, 2024, 08:09:45 PM »
« edited: March 04, 2024, 08:13:38 PM by Skill and Chance »
TBH, I don't think the House would be the problem for Democrats with this allocation.  A lot of the gaining R states are presently maxed out and the probability of having a say in Georgia is pretty high. 

The problem is the presidency.  It's really the South or bust!  Even this is a Republican win on that EC map:
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #26 on: March 05, 2024, 01:04:00 AM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on March 04, 2024, 08:09:45 PM
TBH, I don't think the House would be the problem for Democrats with this allocation.  A lot of the gaining R states are presently maxed out and the probability of having a say in Georgia is pretty high. 

The problem is the presidency.  It's really the South or bust!  Even this is a Republican win on that EC map:



I think EC depends on if these sunbelt states like GA and AZ projected to gain seats continue to shift D long term. If by the end of the decade AZ and GA are out of reach for the GOP and they’re struggling in TX, then the GOP is in pretty big EC trouble overall, even if they make gains in the rust belt and NV
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leecannon
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« Reply #27 on: March 05, 2024, 01:50:07 AM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on March 05, 2024, 01:04:00 AM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on March 04, 2024, 08:09:45 PM
TBH, I don't think the House would be the problem for Democrats with this allocation.  A lot of the gaining R states are presently maxed out and the probability of having a say in Georgia is pretty high.  

The problem is the presidency.  It's really the South or bust!  Even this is a Republican win on that EC map:



I think EC depends on if these sunbelt states like GA and AZ projected to gain seats continue to shift D long term. If by the end of the decade AZ and GA are out of reach for the GOP and they’re struggling in TX, then the GOP is in pretty big EC trouble overall, even if they make gains in the rust belt and NV

My vibe is that Georgia will become like Virginia, safe for democrats but occasionally can struggle statewide while Arizona is gonna stay a swing state federally and statewide

North Carolina is the biggest wild card imo
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #28 on: March 05, 2024, 09:03:52 AM »
Everyone is talking about congressional races, what about the 2032 election? If the map is a repeat of 2020, Democrats go from 306 to 291

Hillary Clinton's famous "Blue Wall" map was only 278, now she can't win

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