2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A non-partisan WI map.
The 5th is now all-WOW with it reaching ideal population by pulling in from Milwaukee County. The 4th moves south to accompany this. The 1st's border in Rock County is now defined by just two straight lines. The 3rd and 7th are both whole-county CDs rooted in rural Western and Northern WI respectively. The 6th is established as a Central WI district. No municipalities were split (except where they lie within at least two counties).

WI-01: R+1, 49-45 Trump, 50-48 Evers
WI-02: D+15, 63-31 Clinton, 67-31 Evers
WI-03: D+1, 48-45 Trump, 51-47 Evers
WI-04: D+23, 71-24 Clinton, 73-25 Evers
WI-05: R+14, 57-37 Trump, 63-36 Walker
WI-06: R+7, 56-38 Trump, 57-41 Walker
WI-07: R+7, 57-37 Trump, 56-42 Walker
WI-08: R+6, 54-40 Trump, 56-42 Walker

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A non-partisan WI map.
The 5th is now all-WOW with it reaching ideal population by pulling in from Milwaukee County. The 4th moves south to accompany this. The 1st's border in Rock County is now defined by just two straight lines. The 3rd and 7th are both whole-county CDs rooted in rural Western and Northern WI respectively. The 6th is established as a Central WI district. No municipalities were split.

WI-01: R+1, 49-45 Trump, 50-48 Evers
WI-02: D+15, 63-31 Clinton, 67-31 Evers
WI-03: D+1, 48-45 Trump, 51-47 Evers
WI-04: D+23, 71-24 Clinton, 73-25 Evers
WI-05: R+14, 57-37 Trump, 63-36 Walker
WI-06: R+7, 56-38 Trump, 57-41 Walker
WI-07: R+7, 57-37 Trump, 56-42 Walker
WI-08: R+6, 54-40 Trump, 56-42 Walker

Hey our map is the same besides the 3 northern districts.  .

Which 3 northern districts? 6, 7, and 8?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A non-partisan WI map.
The 5th is now all-WOW with it reaching ideal population by pulling in from Milwaukee County. The 4th moves south to accompany this. The 1st's border in Rock County is now defined by just two straight lines. The 3rd and 7th are both whole-county CDs rooted in rural Western and Northern WI respectively. The 6th is established as a Central WI district. No municipalities were split.

WI-01: R+1, 49-45 Trump, 50-48 Evers
WI-02: D+15, 63-31 Clinton, 67-31 Evers
WI-03: D+1, 48-45 Trump, 51-47 Evers
WI-04: D+23, 71-24 Clinton, 73-25 Evers
WI-05: R+14, 57-37 Trump, 63-36 Walker
WI-06: R+7, 56-38 Trump, 57-41 Walker
WI-07: R+7, 57-37 Trump, 56-42 Walker
WI-08: R+6, 54-40 Trump, 56-42 Walker

Hey our map is the same besides the 3 northern districts.  .

Which 3 northern districts? 6, 7, and 8?

Yeah , look a little bit earlier in my thread, we have the almost exact same split of Milwaukee county with Wauwatosha and the north shore going to WOW and the south suburbs going to Racine. Racine is the same etc.

True, there are many uncanny similarities. The differences are mainly driven by my focus on compactness as well as the 2nd's being moved more to the east I guess?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyway, here's my fair map:

Why dont u split cinci like u split Milwaukee?
Come on that's a d gerrymander.

You split Milwaukee County three ways. You either split the city once or the county twice. I chose the former. Mostly though, I just wanted to not pair the Rock River Valley with Racine and Kenosha. Besides, the 2nd district is only Clinton+4.

I can easily show a map which only splits it twice and keeps the city whole.

Be my guest, but I bet it either does weird things with Waukesha or Kenosha/Racine. Also, there's a case for splitting Milwaukee from a minority opportunity perspective to make the North Milwaukee/Ozaukee Dem primary as heavily AA as posible.

But why have an extra split in both Waukesha AND Washington counties though? The 4th only needs to take from just one. You don't just split 2 counties extra, you split two townships.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/adbf7454-2f1f-4918-8985-a7d31af2a888
WI 7 seat map
(not that WI losing a seat is likely at all)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b82336a7-c4b9-479a-b84d-ddea75d559ab

thoughts on this map?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This map was designed to have multiple competitive districts (with 4 Biden districts as a secondary goal). There are three districts where neither Trump nor Biden won a majority of the vote. I also have 4 Biden districts. There are no gratitutious county splits. I suspect that the 3rd would be lean Dem in practice while the 5th is opposite, but both would be quite winnable for the other party and be quite competitive. In 2018 Evers all won the 3rd, 1st, 2nd, and 4th by margins of at least 5 points, while Trump won the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th all voted Walker by 8 points or more.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/d2ab7551-3c33-4f3f-bc3b-d10f6949a7a6

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

1 county split map



https://davesredistricting.org/join/8068ede1-8b6a-4c57-a13e-9e82ac75a494


I believe it keeps all incumbents in their districts too,  if Tom Tiffany is from Oneida.

Too bad the website requires you to check a box saying your a resident of Wisconsin or I would seriously submit this map.

Very nice.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Say the Wisconsin Democrats got the chance to gerrymander the state legislature, unilaterally. How many seats in either chamber could they get?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Say the Wisconsin Democrats got the chance to gerrymander the state legislature, unilaterally. How many seats in either chamber could they get?

I tried to do Senate map
https://davesredistricting.org/join/421e4f5a-7547-464a-8355-1def3f3f4db4

18-15 Trump 2016
18-15 Baldwin 2018
17-16 Walker 2018
18-15 Biden 2018

What State Senate districts would you make out of these State Assembly ones?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c08383c2-4eec-46c9-b4c3-7c6afb6aa08d

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

my idea as to what a Dem State Senate gerrymander with those state assembly districts would look like.
There are 15 Trump districts (I think).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Say the Wisconsin Democrats got the chance to gerrymander the state legislature, unilaterally. How many seats in either chamber could they get?

I tried to do Senate map
https://davesredistricting.org/join/421e4f5a-7547-464a-8355-1def3f3f4db4

18-15 Trump 2016
18-15 Baldwin 2018
17-16 Walker 2018
18-15 Biden 2018

What State Senate districts would you make out of these State Assembly ones?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c08383c2-4eec-46c9-b4c3-7c6afb6aa08d

Based on those Assembly districts I would probably draw something like this:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bfe50f2a-5d8e-45ce-a2c4-c471f9372f6f

19-14 Biden 2020
21-12 Baldwin
17-16 Walker
17-16 Trump 2016

https://davesredistricting.org/join/522d7520-48c1-44ce-ae42-bc1e58891a55
this is how the map I posted above compares.

18-15 Biden
22-11 Baldwin
17-16 Evers
18-15 Trump 16

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I mean, I’d argue that the most logical thing would be to just do Kenosha + Racine + Walworth + as much of Rock as will fit.  If you need to add anything else after all of Rock, it could be made up by continuing west and adding population from more border counties like Green.  That district has no business going into Milwaukee County and especially not Waukesha County.  

There is shared history and characteristics between Rock, Walworth, Racine, and Kenosha counties. Ideally they really need to be together in one district.
Additionally, I have found out that it's possible to nest 3 districts in each of the three WOW counties+Milwaukee+these 4 (collectively, not individually). So keeping them together can cut down on county splits.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I whipped up three maps all aimed for some version of fairness, the non-partisan kind, the proportionate kind, or both.

Map 1
https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c2b6ccb-2162-4c0c-889f-7466c59c6c2a
The bold move here was adding Rock in the 3rd, which benefits Democrats by making the 3rd much more Democratic on the margins, and forces the 1st into Milwaukee County, where it has to gobble part of Milwaukee City itself. The 4th is in turn forced into Waukesha County, which in turn forces the 5th up the coast along Lake Michigan. This allows for every city along the lakes (aka Neenah, Appleton, etc.) to be placed in the Green Bay district, except for Fond du Lac. Fond du Lac is instead placed in the Central WI district.
Median district voted for Trump by 3.7 points and there are 4 Biden districts, which is quite directly the result of Rock County being placed in the 3rd.

Map 2
https://davesredistricting.org/join/e2f4ade2-1763-4e6c-ad93-817ae7b77b8a
Driven by my dissatisfaction with the first map splitting Rock from Kenosha and Racine. The lines in MKE are aimed towards making up the shortfall from the 5th from whiter and more Dem parts of the county, in hopes of making the district more competitive. The 1st also takes in a lot of territory from the county, especially higher turnout white Dems along the shore. In fact, the 4th is only 41% white under these lines as a result of these changes; it is now mainly minorities and white Republicans. A major secondary objective was the unification of most of the cities along the lakes. I got them all, but at the price of an awkward Green Bay district.
Median district voted for Trump by 5.6 points and there are only 2 Biden districts, but it's worth noting this is more Dem favorable than the current map still and the 3rd tangibly shifts left.

Map 3
https://davesredistricting.org/join/225645e9-5e18-4bd8-9d24-936e66c781c2
Inspired by the comment above, I sought to see what a 1st would look like along the lines Mr. X was thinking. Ultimately you get an unwieldly slim slender seat infringing on the 3rd if you use just border counties, so I opted for splitting Dane, taking care to keep all of Madison's closest suburbs in the 2nd. The 4th moves south to avert an awkward wrap-around district, leading to the 5th losing more of WOW. The 8th becomes a dedicated coastal district, but territorially it's more in line with the 6th. The numbers required throwing in Green Bay, something I was not too happy about. Median district voted for Trump by 1.7 points and there are 3 Biden districts.

Which map do you think is most good/least bad? Which is most bad/least good? And why? To be clear, I am not completely satisfied with any of them.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You can easily make WI-03 a Biden district, fwiw--you just have to give it all of Rock and thereby triage WI-01.

I agree completely correct about the 3rd. However do not assume the 1st is going to be R leaning as a result. That's not a given. It could just as easily go deeper into Milwaukee.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You can easily make WI-03 a Biden district, fwiw--you just have to give it all of Rock and thereby triage WI-01.

I agree completely correct about the 3rd. However do not assume the 1st is going to be R leaning as a result. That's not a given. It could just as easily go deeper into Milwaukee.

I mean--if you're drawing a gerrymander. Otherwise it has to go into Waukesha, which tbh is the obvious CoI pairing anyway.

The 1st in this case would be a pairing of western exurbs and Democratic cities along the coast as it is. It already would lack a uniform CoI. What's a Milwaukee split between friends, especially if it allows for the three WoW counties mostly within one district? Sure, splitting Milwaukee isn't *the best*, but from CoI perspective, one seat having as much of WOW as is feasible in one seat is excellent.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is WOW really a community? It's just suburban Milwaukee and whilst it makes sense as a political identifier, I don't see much to suggest shared tied between the counties themselves (as opposed to them all having similar tensions with Milwaukee.)

If you were going to gerrymander in favour of the Democrats, the simplest solution would be to Ozaukee (the least Republican of the three, and the one trending Democratic hardest) in WI-04 and use that to drag WI-01 into Milwaukee. That then lets you save Rock County for WI-03.

If we are lumping together areas of shared characteristics for redistricting purposes, it's really something of a no-brainer to put the bulk of WOW into one district, no?
Isn't that the gist of "community" means in a redistricting context, anyway?
EDIT: It's also the case that the WOW counties aren't that far from quota for a single district to begin with.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You can easily keep Waukesha+Ozaukee+Washington together if that's what you want--you can just give WI-01 Jefferson or part of Rock. But I don't think it's wrong to say that those counties have less in common with Walworth or Western Racine than Waukesha.

Are you saying that Jefferson and Rock have more in common with Walworth and Western Racine than Waukesha? I'm having difficulty parsing exactly what you are saying here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You can easily keep Waukesha+Ozaukee+Washington together if that's what you want--you can just give WI-01 Jefferson or part of Rock. But I don't think it's wrong to say that those counties have less in common with Walworth or Western Racine than Waukesha.

Are you saying that Jefferson and Rock have more in common with Walworth and Western Racine than Waukesha? I'm having difficulty parsing exactly what you are saying here.

Sorry, I'm trying to say that Racine and Walworth have more in common with Waukesha than with Jefferson or Rock. They're both exurban/suburban extensions of Milwaukee in a way which Beloit or Watertown isn't.

Hmm. Thanks for clarifying.
I don't think I can disagree, not with Racine having all the growth in its nortern portion over the past 20 years. I would say though that Racine has more in common with Kenosha than Waukesha though, and thus the two generally must be paired in a  CoI-driven map. Walworth meanwhile is a bit of an oddball and has similiarities both to Rock and Waukesha as well as Racine/Kenosha. Which makes a lot of sense, when it comes to it.
It's just hard for me to think of any arrangement in such a map as making more sense overall than Rock+Walworth+Kenosha+Racine, Waukesha+Ozaukee+Washington, and then the two seats taking from Milwaukee as needed to get quota, with the rest forming another district by itself. It just makes so much sense.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f171e0c4-d8be-4431-8e8d-b7ca9c2848d9
Sol, thoughts on this CoI map I just drew? Btw Greendale (Milwaukee County) is the only municipality split, and only for population equality reasons.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff0bfeed-484e-4848-bd1e-a266bd2595d0
My take on a least change map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nice work!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not going to lie, the Hunter map is actually a really good one. It keeps 93% of the original population. WI-1 is Biden +0.3, WI-3 is Trump +3.8 I think. Almost no change to 3, 7, or 8. 8 gets about 1% bluer.
https://www.wicourts.gov/courts/supreme/origact/docs/procongressmaphunter.pdf

That's a pretty nice map. It cleans a lot of county splits, which is probably the best that can be said about it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wisconsin is 100% the worst state geographically for democrats

No, that would be Missouri.

This.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

On a 4-3 decision, the state supreme court has accepted Ever's least change map.

A victory for Democrats this is!