2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Gass3268]

Couldn’t Evers just veto the repeal of the veto?  Republicans don’t have two thirds majorities needed to override his veto.

There is a legit fear that the Republicans in the state legislature would attempt to do redistricting via a legislative resolution that does not require the veto of the governor. They tried this before in I think the 60's but it was struck down by the Supreme Court. Hagedorn has appeared to be fairly reasonable since joining the court last year, so maybe all hope isn't lost.

[Gass3268]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

lol no.

Yeah, something like this would be better:

[Gass3268]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

lol no.

Yeah, something like this would be better:

I like it in theory, but those blue and yellow districts appear seriously underpopulated.

EDIT: one could perhaps balance out the blue District somewhat my taking in more of South Milwaukee as the orange District appears somewhat overpopulated, but it appears that the district would probably have to take in most if not all of Walworth County to even out.

Just ignore the SE districts, I mainly wanted to show what you could do with WI-02 and then in return WI-03.

[Gass3268]

My attempt. Geography in WI is absolutely terrible for Ds; you need some very creative lines to avoid getting 4 likely/safe R districts. I tried to give Kind as blue of a district as I could (Clinton + 4) but ultimately it's unlikely to go very far in the decade. WI-1 I also tried to make competative and could definately become blue leaning by the end of the decade depending upon how the coalitions of the parties continue to change.

This would be my map.

[Gass3268]

Historically Rock County has always been apart of WI-01 along with Kenosha, Racine and Walworth counties. In terms of settlement, this area saw the highest % of emigrants from New England and Upstate New York.  The split only occurred for the first time in 2001 as part of an incumbency protection plan for Paul Ryan and Tammy Baldwin. Both WI-01 and WI-02 were Toss Up seats in 1990's. Dane County outside of Madison was not as extremely Democratic as it is now and the surrounding counties were pretty Republican down ballot. The idea was to give Democratic western Rock County and Beloit to shore up WI-02 and then compensate for WI-01 with blood red southern Waukesha County. Almost immediately however, Dane County swung/trended hard to the left and the neighboring counties either went along or had no ability to counter Dane County. In terms of WI-01, the deal probably saved Paul Ryan a couple times (2006 and 2008) as he probably loses if western Rock/Beloit was in his district instead of southern Waukesha County.

[Gass3268]

Some good redistricting news from the Wisconsin Supreme Court:

https://twitter.com/douglaspoland/status/1393265916398514184?s=20
https://twitter.com/douglaspoland/status/1393271295387840512?s=20
https://twitter.com/douglaspoland/status/1393275822920937475?s=20

[Gass3268]

Republicans want to delay local redistricting like they did in 2011. Typically in Wisconsin the municipalities get to draw new precicents and redistrict first. The state then uses the municipal lines to draw the statewide lines. They did the reverse of this 10 years ago. They gerrymandered the statewide map and then required the municipalities to base their maps/precincts off their maps. Thankfully it looks like they are going the legislative route here so Evers will be able to veto it.

https://twitter.com/SenKeldaRoys/status/1400878610077061128?s=20

[Gass3268]

Is it possible to do a 4-4 or even 5R-3D map without baconstrips? Geography is absolutely horrible for Wisconsin Democrats.

Very easy if you split Dane County and Milwaukee County.

https://twitter.com/MaronAoriak/status/1425181374206685186?s=20

Or this:

https://twitter.com/Gassman3268/status/1425178237571899396?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/js_newswatch/status/1426253271077986306?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1428184032500649987?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1429867395456319491?s=20

They also want the courts to pass a least change map from the 2011 maps because of course they do.

https://twitter.com/SJohnsonWPR/status/1429876837820379150?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1440330262638825477?s=20

Republicans are trying to get the case thrown out in order to have the Wisconsin State Supreme Court be in charge of the redraw.

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1440332480536477709?s=20

[Gass3268]

If anyone is interested, WPR is doing a podcast series about Wisconsin redistricting in 2011.

https://twitter.com/lkwhite/status/1440741503995822082?s=20

[Gass3268]

The Wisconsin State Supreme Court will take original jurisdiction on the redistricting case.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1440768976989032462?s=20

[Gass3268]

The Wisconsin State Supreme Court will take original jurisdiction on the redistricting case.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1440768976989032462?s=20

Does this apply to the Congressional maps or just state legislative?

I have to imagine both, but the current jurisdiction conflict between the WISC and the Federal Court will have to get resolved. The United States Supreme Court will probably make that decision, which means its probably going to head to the WISC.

[Gass3268]

Here are People's Commission's maps of Wisconsin. Similar to what they are doing in Maryland. Equally powerless, but maybe will help them in court? Who knows?

https://twitter.com/StinaDale/status/1443703018231418883?s=20
https://twitter.com/StinaDale/status/1443703258095173633?s=20
https://twitter.com/WI_Forward/status/1443717453301882880?s=20

[Gass3268]

Does Evers have veto power over the maps?

yes, requires two thirds vote in legislature to override, which Republicans don't have (barely) in either chamber.

Unless the Wisconsin Supreme Court says the legislature can pass redistricting bills via resolutions overturning decades of precedent. Really its up to Justice Brian Hagedorn if Evers gets a veto or not.

[Gass3268]

Looks like we will be getting the Republicans maps here soon.

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1450933182174572550?s=20

Also the People's Maps Commission made updates to their maps.

Lastly, Dane County tentatively approved the following for their 37 Seat County Board.

[Gass3268]

Here are the Republican maps.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1450940129636409346?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Union_Tpke/status/1450941542890450946?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1450945806144520193?s=20

[Gass3268]

Not sure why poor Baraboo had to get chopped in half between WI-02 and WI-03.

[Gass3268]

If we're thinking in terms of counties that form whole districts, the WOW are 100,000 short. Which is not a big deal, as Dodge and Jefferson have links to Washington and Waukesha, but I'm not sure it's a combo that draws itself.

You could just as easily say that Racine, Kenosha, Milwaukee and Ozaukee is almost the right size for two districts, and that Washington, Waukesha, Dodge and Jefferson are the right size for another.

You can try something like this:



WI-01: Trump+2.2, Walker+2.4, Biden+0.1
WI-03: Trump+1.7, Evers+5.6, Trump+0.7

The counties making up districts 1-2 and 4-5 are only 714 people above deviation combined. The city of Milwaukee is not split (everything in Milwaukee County from the city and north plus Ozaukee is 399 below deviation). WI-04 is preserved as a majority-minority district. WI-01 becomes a Biden district by just 615 votes.

Unlike my previous map's WI-03, I swapped out Juneau and Adams for Pierce. It's still a Trump district, but it shaves 4k votes off the margin. I think putting Rock County in WI-03 is really getting near a gerrymander and it takes WI-01 out of competitive range. It'd also push WI-05 up into either Fond du Lac or Sheboygan Counties.

I would put Brookfield and similar areas in Waukesha in that WI-01 instead of Walworth County.

Also feels reasonable to put Rock in WI-03 and figure out other areas to put in WI-02 (more of Jefferson/Dodge/Columbia perhaps).

Dane + Dodge + Jefferson is close to a perfect district population wise.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1461099765211484162?s=20

[Gass3268]

On to the courts

https://twitter.com/DanRShafer/status/1461363517097840640?s=20