2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[walleye26]

The problem that the GOP will have at the state level is simply population. Northern WI is losing people and Dane/Sauk/Fox Valley are all gaining.

[walleye26]

I can’t link my DRA right now, but how about this: 1st-Racine, Oak Creek& South MKE, Kenosha, Walworth, Rock, Green, and the Dane County portions of Brooklyn and Belleville.
2nd-Dane, Jefferson, Dodge, and a bit of Eastern Columbia.
3rd-similar to now, except remove Portage, the Wood county bit, Juneau+Adams, and put Sauk, western Columbia, and Iowa.
4th-MKE, St Francis, Cudahay, Franklin, Greendale, Greenfield
5th-Waukesha County, Washington, Cities of Wauwatosa, West Allis, West MKE, Hales Corners, and just a bit of Southern FDL County.
6th-North Shore Suburbs, up the lakeshore including Door County, and the rest of FDL county along with southern Winnebago.
7th-similar to now except the rest of Wood, and add Juneau+Adams.
8th-similar to now except add Portage.

[walleye26]

My competitive compromise map:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::53730fae-ea0a-4aa4-9059-ea81b3d83f79

[walleye26]

Here's my guess for a fair or compromise map


https://davesredistricting.org/join/29383921-93cb-4acb-90e6-77fead359fd7

I don’t like how the 6th swings up northwest of Green Bay. Up there is way to forested and wilderness, whereas places like Fond du Lac and Sheboygan counties are a mix of large manufacturing towns and large farms.

[walleye26]

My competitive compromise map:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::53730fae-ea0a-4aa4-9059-ea81b3d83f79

Can't view it but your name is an oxymoron, no compromise map will have any competitive districts, unless if its just WI 3 to a degree.

You can make WI-01 competitive easily by taking in South Milwaukee (and indeed it'd even be a tilt/lean D district). Not sure if a compromise or bipartisan map would do that, but it is a possibility.

Anyways here is a quick, mostly fair map with 2 competitive districts. I will recognize this is probably one of the more Dem-friendly configurations that can still be defended that are not gerrymanders. Basically a 4R-2D-2S map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/762f66fe-91cb-43ea-bb0b-7e6f8ebcb614



WI-01: Clinton+2, Evers+3, D+1
WI-02: Clinton+49, Evers+44, D+18
WI-03: Trump+3, Evers+4, D+1
WI-04: Clinton+38, Evers+34, D+17 (49% white, 35% black, 10% hispanic)
WI-05: Trump+28, Walker+33, R+16
WI-06: Trump+17, Walker+15, R+7
WI-07: Trump+19, Walker+14, R+7
WI-08: Trump+17, Walker+14, R+6

I suppose competitive districts are not in either party's favour though and both Republicans and Democrats would prefer a fixed 5R-3D map instead?

Is there a way I can insert the picture of my map on here from DRA?

[walleye26]

Thoughts on this competitive map? https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::39f05f2d-60ff-401a-8c49-58f53d04795a

[walleye26]

Thoughts on this competitive map? https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::39f05f2d-60ff-401a-8c49-58f53d04795a

Map not available.

Is there a reason? Do I have to turn on a setting or something?

[walleye26]

Can anybody tell me how to imbed the picture of my map on here from DRA instead of the link?

[walleye26]

I would agree with your bare minimum map ideas, but I think there will likely be a few Dem leaning seats drawn by a court that would connect areas bordering Dane County exurbs. For example, a seat in western Jefferson County connecting Waterloo, Lake Mills, Jefferson, and Fort Atkinson would be about a D+3, and if you make Columbia County it’s own assembly district you would do that too. You could try to draw a competitive (R+5ish) Assembly district if you connect Fox Lake, Beaver Dam, and the townships along western Dodge County and include the city of Columbus. It’s fairly easy to draw some Dem leaning seats that border Dane County without actually sneaking into it.

[walleye26]

My attempt. Geography in WI is absolutely terrible for Ds; you need some very creative lines to avoid getting 4 likely/safe R districts. I tried to give Kind as blue of a district as I could (Clinton + 4) but ultimately it's unlikely to go very far in the decade. WI-1 I also tried to make competative and could definately become blue leaning by the end of the decade depending upon how the coalitions of the parties continue to change.

This would be my map.

Would a court redraw respect where incumbents live? This would pit Fitz against Pocan, Steil against Kind, and then leave nobody in 8 or 1.

[walleye26]

Forgot to post this last night, but fair map:


Pres 2020:


The 4th is 43.1% WVAP, 34.1% BVAP, 17.4% HVAP. The 3rd here doesn't contain any part of Dane county but still shifted left slightly from 2016 to 2020.

DRA link.

Not too bad, what I would do instead is take the 4th all of MKE/north shore burbs + Ozaukee, then make the 5th the southern MKE burbs like Cudahy, Oak Creek, New Berlin, Muskego, and Brookfield + Racine/Kenosha. That would be about Trump +1.5

[walleye26]

Not going to lie, the Hunter map is actually a really good one. It keeps 93% of the original population. WI-1 is Biden +0.3, WI-3 is Trump +3.8 I think. Almost no change to 3, 7, or 8. 8 gets about 1% bluer.
https://www.wicourts.gov/courts/supreme/origact/docs/procongressmaphunter.pdf

[walleye26]

Off topic for a second, but Taylor county (up north) has a TORNADO WARNING on December 15th. This has literally never happened before. My parents in Marathon County are directly in the path of this storm.

[walleye26]

Has there been a single redistricting SCOTUS decision that "hasn't" benefited the Republicans?   It seems like it's been a completely one sided partisan court all the way here.

Just wait for SCOTUS to uphold the Alabama gerrymander and finally demolish the VRA. It would be really f***ing sad and ironic that the VRA would be passed due to Alabama’s racist history, especially after Selma, and it could die that way too.

[walleye26]

The WI Dept of Administration released their population estimates for Jan 1, 2023. They get this data by looking at birth and death records, housing/building permits, and correctional and university numbers. They estimate since the 2020 census, Wisconsin has added 58,282 residents, or a 0.99% increase from 2020. Key numbers and counties:
Dane: +28,552, a 5.08% increase;
MKE -2,230, a 0.24% decrease;
Waukesha +4,560, a 1.12% increase;
Brown +4,493, a 1.67% increase;
Outagamie +2,958, a 1.55% increase;
Washington +1,578, a 1.15% increase;
Eau Claire +3,097, a 2.93% increase;
LaX +1,581, a 1.31% increase;
St. Croix +3,811, a 4.07% increase;
Ozaukee +1,196, a 1.31% increase; and
Portage +1,213, a 1.72% increase.

Losers, by percent:
Grant, -1.35%
Ashland, -1.25%
Dodge, -1.03%
Price, -0.95%
Richland/Langlade, -0.92%

Largest percentage growth was Calumet at 6%, followed by Dane (5.08%) and St Croix (4.07%).

Full data: https://doa.wi.gov/DIR/Prelim_Est_Co_2023.pdf

[walleye26]

I'm all here for Dane County saving WI. It would be interesting to see the in state/out of state breakdown these updated numbers.

They don’t release those, but it would be cool to see. I’m willing to bet a lot of the St Croix County growth is Twin Cities spillover.

Also when you factor in Portage, Eau Claire, and LaX Counties, the Democratic ones are outpacing the GOP ones. From personal experience I also know a lot of the growth in Brown is from younger (20/30s) people moving in for jobs. They are probably purple or blue leaning.

[walleye26]

Another advantage for Dems in Madison is so far, it's very much been a city that's being built up rather than built out. The fastest growth is actually from increasing density in the downtown. Long term, this means there's more potential for sprawl to add more population to Madison metro.

Interesting how policies incentivizing large apartment blocks in the downtown can be directly to Dems political success statewide.

The way I see it is this: WI Dems have a big rurals problem, but the WISGOP has an even bigger suburbs problem.

[walleye26]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2023/09/12/vos-pushes-for-new-electoral-maps-to-bypass-liberal-court/70835377007/

MADISON - Assembly Speaker Robin Vos is backing off threats of impeaching the newest Wisconsin Supreme Court justice and is instead deploying a new maneuver to avoid having the liberal-controlled court weigh in on the state's electoral maps: writing new ones.

After previously opposing such plans for years, Vos and Assembly Republicans announced Tuesday they would pursue legislation this week that seeks to use "an Iowa-style nonpartisan redistricting" model that would allow the nonpartisan Legislative Reference Bureau to write new legislative maps instead of partisans.

The move is aimed at bypassing lawsuits before the state Supreme Court that seek to rewrite the current GOP-favorable maps that were adopted in 2021.

Devil is the details and they are not releasing any details so I'm mighty suspicious.  What do they mean by "Iowa-style"? At a congressional level "Iowa-style" would not work because you will have to split counties because Milwaukee County is > than the ideal CD population.

I am in favor of a non partisan body drawing the maps even though in a state like Wisconsin that gives Republicans an advantage due to how the population is distributed.

Presumably it means a nonpartisan agency/computer draws the map and the legislature can approve or reject it.

Of course, all the Legislature has to do is reject it multiple times and authority reverts back to them and they're free to gerrymander as they please. If Wisconsin Republicans are serious about redistricting reform, there are serious ways to do it. I'm not sure anyone thinks this is a sincere or serious proposal even for what it is.

It’s not a serious proposal. I think a serious proposal would be a nonpartisan agency draw up 3 versions, have the legislature rank them 1,2,3, hold public hearings on them, and then the nonpartisan agency selects one.

[walleye26]

Here's a non-partisan map I threw together awhile ago. Obviously divide these into thirds for the Assembly:




It has 16 Biden seats and 17 Trump seats, which is actually better than I'd expect, that Kenosha-based 21st is the median seat. It also has the exact same alignment for Evers/Michels in 2022 even though Evers did a little over a point and half better than Biden AND manages to even be identical for 2022 Senate with a Republican victory and is notably almost identical in 2018, only the Appleton-based 18th flips to Walker. So...yeah pretty polarized.

Those Green Bay and Appleton seats voted a bit to the right of the national PV too, both are Biden 50.6-50.7 (as did the Eau Claire-based one in the west actually but Democrats seem to have some residual downballot strength there), the 7th is close to a complete match for the national PV, and that 29th voted like the Green Bay and Appleton-based seats but is probably a stronger for the GOP downballot district still. So 16 seats is possibly close to a ceiling for the Democrats. The Republicans meanwhile could probably win 22 in a true wave, which is exactly 2/3 and one could argue even the Janesville and La Crosse-based seats aren't truly out of reach there although they seem pretty inflexible giving Barnes about the same as Biden...actually he did slightly better in the Janesville seat. But in reality the Republicans are probably looking at something like 17-20 seats.

This is a solid map, but I’ll give you my two cents in order to make it a bit more competitive and less republicans-leaning: get Stevens Point, Whiting, Plover, and the rest of the northern half of Portage County into District 9. I’ve drawn a district that includes Wausau, Weston, Rothschild, Plover, Stevens Point, and Wisconsin Rapids that is about R+3, you could make a slightly “cleaner” map that would be about R+6. I’m guessing 9 and 10 are both about R+10-12. Then you could take district 10’s area east into rural Northern Outagamie county (Taking in a lot of R+35 towns).

Once that is done, replace the loss in 19 by going south into 25, taking in townships in Eastern Fond du Lac County that are R+50. Then have 24/25 take in the rest of Dodge County by Beaver Dam and Waupun, along with small towns like Alto and Oakfield. Then 23 can grab the city of North Fond du Lac (only Trump +9) and some blue precincts in the city of Fond du Lac. It’s possible if you include FDL and  Oshkosh in the same district you can get it down to a Trump +6 district.

Again, I like your map, but if you shift some things in Stevens Point/Fox Valley a bit you can make some of those districts (I would guess to be about R+12-14) to be more like R+6.

[walleye26]

I made maps with as many counties kept intact as I possibly could.  It came out to 16 Biden seats for the Senate, and 46 Biden seats in the House, but there's tons of competitive seats in both maps in both directions.   Pretty sure either party could get majorities in either chamber here, but it would be easier for Dems in the House though.

House districts are nested inside the Senate districts.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/e4e5d471-5c8a-4541-a8c3-477cf0b462d0





https://davesredistricting.org/join/e4e5d471-5c8a-4541-a8c3-477cf0b462d0

Sheboygan makes for such a perfect House district, it's a crime there isn't one there now.

Also the skew is quite good, but the Madison/Milwaukee seats distort the far Democrat end of it. I think that's inevitable.

This is a solid map. I can never figure out how to post my maps from DRA on here, they never seem to post correctly, but this is similar to what I do. Sheboygan absolutely should be it’s own seat, and I like what you did with the Appleton seat. I think that Democrats will realistically get a Green Bay and Appleton-based Senate district (along with a clear Sheboygan house seat, plus Appleton suburban seats, such as a Menasha+Neenah D+7 house seat). I also think that the awful split of Beloit and Iowa County gets fixed.

[walleye26]

Tony Ever's map seems the most neat and tidy of them all.

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1745964873056407795

No real jagged lines or crazy tentacles. All the Dem-proposed maps connect Oshkosh to Appleton for a Senate district.

My only gripe with Ever’s map is that the 73rd assembly district includes the Bad River Res and the city of Ashland. I get he wanted to keep the tribes together, but putting Ashland + Bad River in the 74th and swapping that with some purple townships in southern Douglas county would lead to the 73rd as being more like 56/44 D (opposed to 60/37 now) and the 74th being close to 50/50 instead of like 54-44 R. The other suggestion I would have is to put Stevens Point and Wausau in the same Senate district. A point to Black River Falls senate district just ain’t good. A Wausau to point one is much better.

[walleye26]

Can someone TLDR these maps- are they good?

Light Republican lean for both, but totally doable for Dems to get majorities. Also a number of seats I would expect Democrats to continue to improve on as the decade progresses, with not many I think they would have to worry about.

Yes, full agreement here. Evers ceded the R-trending areas up by Douglas, Ashland, and Sawyer Counties to the Republicans, along with the Point-Rapids-Black River Falls seats. Personally, I wish he would have done a Wausau-Stevens Point Senate district, as that would only be about R+4, but I get it.

However, he did put all of St Croix County and Pierce into one. The Hudson/River Falls/New Richmond area is growing quickly, so if some of this is Twin Cities blue spillover it could help Dems by the end of the decade. I also think the GB suburbs (De Pere, Bellevue, etc could really shift blue too. However, this is small potatoes compared to what happens in Ozaukee and Waukesha counties this decade.

[walleye26]

Can someone TLDR these maps- are they good?

Light Republican lean for both, but totally doable for Dems to get majorities. Also a number of seats I would expect Democrats to continue to improve on as the decade progresses, with not many I think they would have to worry about.

Yes, full agreement here. Evers ceded the R-trending areas up by Douglas, Ashland, and Sawyer Counties to the Republicans, along with the Point-Rapids-Black River Falls seats. Personally, I wish he would have done a Wausau-Stevens Point Senate district, as that would only be about R+4, but I get it.

However, he did put all of St Croix County and Pierce into one. The Hudson/River Falls/New Richmond area is growing quickly, so if some of this is Twin Cities blue spillover it could help Dems by the end of the decade. I also think the GB suburbs (De Pere, Bellevue, etc could really shift blue too. However, this is small potatoes compared to what happens in Ozaukee and Waukesha counties this decade.

The Douglas/Ashland/Bayfield area wasn't totally conceded.   He drew a D vote sink in AD-73, which actually was kind of a smart move since the area is R-trending overall and all three assembly seats have R incumbents right now so any competitive district would've been a tough flip.  I think the Senate seat would stay with the GOP in any shape it was drawn. 

Getting AD-73 as an auto-flip to Dems is probably the best possible outcome for that area given the circumstances.

I agree with Wausau-Stevens Point though, I don't know why they didn't put them together, maybe that would've been seen as too partisan.

I like his Hudson/River Falls district, AD-30.

Can someone TLDR these maps- are they good?

Light Republican lean for both, but totally doable for Dems to get majorities. Also a number of seats I would expect Democrats to continue to improve on as the decade progresses, with not many I think they would have to worry about.

Yes, full agreement here. Evers ceded the R-trending areas up by Douglas, Ashland, and Sawyer Counties to the Republicans, along with the Point-Rapids-Black River Falls seats. Personally, I wish he would have done a Wausau-Stevens Point Senate district, as that would only be about R+4, but I get it.

However, he did put all of St Croix County and Pierce into one. The Hudson/River Falls/New Richmond area is growing quickly, so if some of this is Twin Cities blue spillover it could help Dems by the end of the decade. I also think the GB suburbs (De Pere, Bellevue, etc could really shift blue too. However, this is small potatoes compared to what happens in Ozaukee and Waukesha counties this decade.

The Douglas/Ashland/Bayfield area wasn't totally conceded.   He drew a D vote sink in AD-73, which actually was kind of a smart move since the area is R-trending overall and all three assembly seats have R incumbents right now so any competitive district would've been a tough flip.  I think the Senate seat would stay with the GOP in any shape it was drawn. 

Getting AD-73 as an auto-flip to Dems is probably the best possible outcome for that area given the circumstances.

I agree with Wausau-Stevens Point though, I don't know why they didn't put them together, maybe that would've been seen as too partisan.

I like his Hudson/River Falls district, AD-30.

Yes, the AD-73 and AD-30 are both good. The only thing I would have changed is the southern half of Douglas, Bayfield, and Ashland is currently grouped with Sawyer and some of Burnett. I would have taken some of Burnett out and swapped it with the town of Lac du Flambeau in Vilas to keep the tribes together. Instead of it being like 54-44 that would make it more like 52-46.