2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Sadhwani is the obvious Dem hack on the commission.

https://twitter.com/eqca/status/1469467044231860224
Seems like a large part of her map proposal came from this one.

More than just her. Check out some of the others, for instance:

Isra is currently a Senior Research Evaluation Specialist with Santa Clara County’s Division of Equity and Social Justice. In this role, she leads the intersectional research efforts across the 7 different offices within the Division: Offices of Women’s Policy, Immigrant Relations, Cultural Competency, Labor Standard Enforcement, LGBTQ Affairs, 2020 Census and Gender-Based Violence Prevention. Previously, Isra served as the lead evaluator for the County’s Tobacco Control Program. She has worked for over 9 years in the community organizing, research and policy, to address the inequities related to adverse health impacts from tobacco products in a variety of places including, California Youth Advocacy Network, Stanford Prevention Research Center, Tobacco Related Disease Research Program at the University of California Office of the President, The Truth Initiative and her academic alma maters. Isra earned her A.A. from De Anza Community College, her B.S. in Health Science from San José State University, and her Masters in Public Health in Epidemiology/Biostatistics from U.C. Berkeley. In her free time, Isra enjoys hiking and spending time with her family and friends. She is registered to vote as No Party Preference and lives in San José.

A "independent" who works for the Santa Clara County Division of Equity and Social Justice

Linda Akutagawa is President and CEO of LEAP (Leadership Education for Asian Pacifics). A passionate social entrepreneur for over 25 years and beneficiary of LEAP’s leadership programming, she is a believer in the value, and urgent need, for diverse, equitable, and inclusive leadership. Through LEAP, Linda has dedicated herself to continuing the cycle of leadership development and inspiring Asian and Pacific Islanders to step up to leadership roles across sectors, industries, and communities.

She is the Chair of the Alliance for Board Diversity and an appointed member of the California Department of Insurance Diversity Task Force. She is also a member of the Asian/Asian American Institute Advisory Board at California State University at Los Angeles as well as a Board member of the Asian Pacific Planning and Policy Council.

She’s a nationally recognized speaker and facilitator on leadership, diversity, equity, and inclusion, nonprofits, and board governance. Linda received her B.S. in International Business with a minor in Economics from California State University at Los Angeles. She has a Certificate in Nonprofit Board Consulting through Boardsource. She is married and a furmom to her cockapoo and aunty to eleven nephews and nieces. She is registered as No Party Preference.

Another "independent" who leads the "Alliance for Board Diversity" and is a member of a state diversity task force.

A century ago, Dr. Yee’s ancestors left southern China for “Gum Saan” (“Gold Mountain”). They settled in Oakland, where his parents and then he and his brothers were all born and raised.

He graduated from Oakland High School, UC Berkeley (BS), Dallas Theological Seminary (ThM), and the Graduate Theological Union (PhD), where his research focused on sociolinguistic aspects of liturgical and free worship. He has taught mostly for Fuller Theological Seminary and especially enjoys teaching his class on Oakland for St. Mary’s College.

He’s the author of Worship on the Way (2012), which explores worship in Asian and South East Asian North American churches. He pastored a church for ten years and is active in his present multicultural church community, which wrestles tangibly with matters of social justice, class & race, cultural contextualization, community redevelopment, crime & safety, recovery, re-entry, and homelessness.

He’s a longtime history docent at the Oakland Museum of California, with a special interest in the state’s indigenous peoples. He was the first board secretary for Habitat for Humanity East Bay (now East Bay/Silicon Valley). An avid marathon runner, he volunteers with Running for a Better Oakland, a youth sports and scholarship program.

He lives in Oakland with his wife, Dr. Lisa Yee, who is a physician at a community health center. He is registered with the Republican Party.

A "Republican" who "wrestles tangibly with matters of social justice, class & race, cultural contextualization, community redevelopment, crime & safety, recovery, re-entry, and homelessness."

Oh, and fun follow-up: Sadhwani literally has Latinx in her bio

Sara Sadhwani is an assistant professor of politics at Pomona College specializing in American politics, racial and ethnic politics, and public policy. Her research has been published in the peer reviewed journals such as the Journal of Politics, Political Behavior, California Journal of Politics and Policy, and Politics, Groups, and Identities. Her analysis of Asian American and Latinx voting behavior in California elections has been featured in the Washington Post, The Los Angeles Times, Vox, NBC News, HuffPost and many others.

I intentionally didn't mention any of the Democrats here but when 2 of your independents are openly very left wing and one of your Republicans is clearly a Republican-In-Name-Only it should be no surprise that the commission is drawing maps like this.

If the commission actually wanted to draw a D gerrymander, then they wouldn't be leaving Issa in a winnable seat and moving Porter's seat well to the right.

I mean I don't think they're drawing a crazy map or anything but giving Porter a Biden +11 seat that she may lose anyway doesn't mean it's a fair map just because that seat might vote red in 2022. The commission is cutting an R seat in Fresno, cutting an R seat in Northern LA (admittedly, the Northern LA thing is a lot more justifiable), and turning a red district into a purple swinging left seat in Riverside. In other words, they're taking a 41-7-5 map and turning it into a 43-6-3. Now, admittedly, Republicans might still win some of those 43 blue seats in 2022 -- ie, SAVANAANA and NOCOAST, and SAVANAANA I could see getting redder by the end of the decade, but this is definitely a D leaning map.

Why do you think it will get redder?

Swung several points to the right 2016-2020 and has a lot of Asians

(Btw, have not forgotten to respond to ProgressiveModerate, just haven't had a chance yet).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

A century ago, Dr. Yee’s ancestors left southern China for “Gum Saan” (“Gold Mountain”). They settled in Oakland, where his parents and then he and his brothers were all born and raised.

He graduated from Oakland High School, UC Berkeley (BS), Dallas Theological Seminary (ThM), and the Graduate Theological Union (PhD), where his research focused on sociolinguistic aspects of liturgical and free worship. He has taught mostly for Fuller Theological Seminary and especially enjoys teaching his class on Oakland for St. Mary’s College.

He’s the author of Worship on the Way (2012), which explores worship in Asian and South East Asian North American churches. He pastored a church for ten years and is active in his present multicultural church community, which wrestles tangibly with matters of social justice, class & race, cultural contextualization, community redevelopment, crime & safety, recovery, re-entry, and homelessness.

He’s a longtime history docent at the Oakland Museum of California, with a special interest in the state’s indigenous peoples. He was the first board secretary for Habitat for Humanity East Bay (now East Bay/Silicon Valley). An avid marathon runner, he volunteers with Running for a Better Oakland, a youth sports and scholarship program.

He lives in Oakland with his wife, Dr. Lisa Yee, who is a physician at a community health center. He is registered with the Republican Party.

A "Republican" who "wrestles tangibly with matters of social justice, class & race, cultural contextualization, community redevelopment, crime & safety, recovery, re-entry, and homelessness."

I intentionally didn't mention any of the Democrats here but when 2 of your independents are openly very left wing and one of your Republicans is clearly a Republican-In-Name-Only it should be no surprise that the commission is drawing maps like this.

None of these are necessarily partisan issues. These are all legit issues R candidates will have to deal with if they want to become more competitive in currently D-leaning districts.

Now, admittedly, Republicans might still win some of those 43 blue seats in 2022 -- ie, SAVANAANA and NOCOAST, and SAVANAANA I could see getting redder by the end of the decade, but this is definitely a D leaning map.

Why do you think it will get redder?

Yeah I can't see the Westminster-Garden Grove district in this map trending R over the long term, given that the local 2016-2020 R swing was almost entirely due to one-time increased turnout rather than Biden losing raw votes from HRC.

All of those other than crime/safety and homelessness are definitely left-leaning issues, or left-wing labels for the issues. And I'd be wary of building analysis around Biden having more votes than HRC considering that that was true basically everywhere in the country, and for both parties -- ie, Trump got more votes in Morris County NJ in 2020 than 2016, but that doesn't mean the county isn't trending left.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Now, admittedly, Republicans might still win some of those 43 blue seats in 2022 -- ie, SAVANAANA and NOCOAST, and SAVANAANA I could see getting redder by the end of the decade, but this is definitely a D leaning map.

Why do you think it will get redder?

Yeah I can't see the Westminster-Garden Grove district in this map trending R over the long term, given that the local 2016-2020 R swing was almost entirely due to one-time increased turnout rather than Biden losing raw votes from HRC.

I'd be wary of building analysis around Biden having more votes than HRC considering that that was true basically everywhere in the country, and for both parties -- ie, Trump got more votes in Morris County NJ in 2020 than 2016, but that doesn't mean the county isn't trending left.

The 2016-2020 trend in that area won't repeat itself next cycle because the additional marginal voters the R candidate would need to pick up for that probably don't exist. Nor can I see Trump flipping lots of people who voted against him once or twice if he runs a third time.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yikes.

On the bright side it seems like CA-22 was cleaned up a bit with negligible change in partisanship

[Oryxslayer]

Yikes.

On the bright side it seems like CA-22 was cleaned up a bit with negligible change in partisanship

I mean the tail is unnecessary, but this is just the White parts coast separated from the Hispanic parts of the coast.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

Yikes.

On the bright side it seems like CA-22 was cleaned up a bit with negligible change in partisanship

I mean the tail is unnecessary, but this is just the White parts coast separated from the Hispanic parts of the coast.

I feel like a major recurring theme in this thread is people expressing {shock, horror, dismay} at district lines in California because they don't look "pretty", without realizing that

1. precincts are just awful outside major urban areas because the terrain is weird
2. the commission explicitly has to conform to municipality lines, which also look terrible

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yikes.

On the bright side it seems like CA-22 was cleaned up a bit with negligible change in partisanship

I mean the tail is unnecessary, but this is just the White parts coast separated from the Hispanic parts of the coast.

I feel like a major recurring theme in this thread is people expressing {shock, horror, dismay} at district lines in California because they don't look "pretty", without realizing that

1. precincts are just awful outside major urban areas because the terrain is weird
2. the commission explicitly has to conform to municipality lines, which also look terrible

Thing is, is the commission considering splitting precincts?

[Antonio the Sixth]

2. the commission explicitly has to conform to municipality lines, which also look terrible

Was that the case in 2010 too? Because the current districts are fairly compact.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

2. the commission explicitly has to conform to municipality lines, which also look terrible

Was that the case in 2010 too? Because the current districts are fairly compact.

Yeah that's a good question. You'd think the loss of a district would make districts neater on this front, not messier.

[BoiseBoy]

Yikes!

https://twitter.com/metatinny/status/1472432033565659137?s=21

[BoiseBoy]

A DRA map can be found here:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::de47b010-1cd6-470e-91bf-0a8fec99bc5d

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

blegh anything more than 3 republicans is too much

[BoiseBoy]

Colored by 2020 presidential results:


By 2016 pres:


By 2018 gov:



New lines with the old ones overlaid:

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol district 20 looks like their COI was just “coast”. Ik that it’s to separate white and Hispanic voters but that kinda extreme

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lol district 20 looks like their COI was just “coast”. Ik that it’s to separate white and Hispanic voters but that kinda extreme

The 2003-2013 iteration of CA-23 says hi.

[OBD]

This isn’t even a solid gerrymander despite looking the part. WEAK!

[Oryxslayer]

This isn’t even a solid gerrymander despite looking the part. WEAK!

What can best describe this map is the concept of a minority opportunity map. Districts were clearly drawn with the aim of expanding minority access, which at times requires some 'clever' lines. These include, but are not limited to: The parallel coastal districts, the effective partisan swap of CA-22 in the south valley and CA-10 in the center, the south-valley White pack with it's arm up to Hanford, the conscientious decision to include Hispanic parts of LA in CA-25, everything that is going on in LA, the new OC Asian seat, and the absurd successor to CA-42 that tries to congregate disparate groups of Riverside Whites so that the CA-36 successor can reach down from Coachella into Hemet.

[Antonio the Sixth]

They're really trying to screw over Katie Porter huh?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

They're really trying to screw over Katie Porter huh?

No Porter is in 47 double bunked with Steel. Biden +11

[Antonio the Sixth]

They're really trying to screw over Katie Porter huh?

No Porter is in 47 double bunked with Steel. Biden +11

Ah. So that leaves that R-leaning NE OC district as an open seat?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

They're really trying to screw over Katie Porter huh?

No Porter is in 47 double bunked with Steel. Biden +11

Ah. So that leaves that R-leaning NE OC district as an open seat?

Yup. I suppose Young Kim could run there, but she lives closer to the plurality asian seat(Clinton +13, Biden +6)

[Oryxslayer]

They're really trying to screw over Katie Porter huh?

No Porter is in 47 double bunked with Steel. Biden +11

Ah. So that leaves that R-leaning NE OC district as an open seat?

Yup. I suppose Young Kim could run there, but she lives closer to the plurality asian seat(Clinton +13, Biden +6)

If they are smart, Kim will run in the North OC R pack and Steele will run in the Asian seat. But they both might want the Asian seat since it contains both of their bases. This though may be foolish since such a seat will likely attract Democratic challengers connected to at least one section of the OC Asian community, nullifying any potential incumbent advantages.

[Figueira]

I wonder what will happen with the Eshoo/Lofgren/Panetta shakeup.

[Minnesota Mike]

Latest congressional map on DRA.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9b0b4e52-e082-4ced-9223-6c7705e31dac

[BoiseBoy]

Latest congressional map on DRA.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0ca7a547-bca4-4731-bbff-bb24443a0920

So it looks like not much has changed. Levin's seat is shored up a bit, going from D+7.9 to D+11.4. The district numbers have shifted a little too.