2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Wrt: the yellow district, is it ok to not have an Asian seat in San Jose? The Green district is only plurality. I know the California metrics are pretty aggressive about making minority districts. (FYI, it's very hard to make a majority asian Green district without some population shifted out of the central valley.)

I was baffled by the creation of an Asian district in the first place ten years ago; there is no "Asian community" to speak of (Vietnamese in east San Jose have nothing in particular in common with Indians and Chinese in Cupertino and Fremont) and Asian candidates have no difficulty being elected in districts without Asian majorities. From the standpoint of good governance, I would personally prefer that Asian-majority districts not created unless completely necessary, because doing so invites communalist politics (as in the case of the BJP candidate who ran against Ro Khanna last year).

Funnily enough, I've mentioned this as well, but generally once something like that has been done it will not be undone barring extreme circumstances (such as the bleeding of AA population from South Los Angeles). It's also better to divide the SGV by their corresponding commute corridors but due to the nature of the commission, it is instead divided along racial lines.

Current CA-32 would probably still be majority Latino if it included Glendora and/or Claremont. Current CA-27 might also have a more solid Asian plurality in that case.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Did a full redistricting attempt for Cali based on Re: Draw a district challenge: Whites in 4th place. 34 Safe D, 3 Safe R, 15 competitive- 10 of which are in SoCal. This was a deliberate D gerrymander of Orange, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. I would've liked the district boundaries to correspond more closely to county and municipal boundaries.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f7f11071-3203-4611-80a7-1dd4df6500f7

#1: "Whites in 4th place and <10% of resident pop" attempt for the Bay Area. Contains all of the heavily Black areas in the East Bay from Richmond (Contra Costa) through Oakland (Alameda) and the heavily Asian areas down to Milpitas and NE-most San Jose (Santa Clara).

Resident population is 28.0% Latino, 18.4% Black, 38.3% Asian, and 15.6% (Non-Hispanic) White. CVAP is 19.9-21.2% White/Black/Latino and 35.4% Asian.

Spoiler alert: Bay Area

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#2: all of Oakland west of #1 + most of SF proper (south)east of the Golden Gate Park.

#3: remainder of SF proper + San Mateo county down to Half Moon Bay and San Mateo (the city)

#4: remainder of the I-80 corridor in Contra Costa County extending east to the western boundaries of Martinez and Walnut Creek + all of Berkeley not in #1 + rest of Alameda County down to the middle of Castro Valley

#5: remainder of San Mateo County + all of Santa Cruz County + Santa Clara County west of Cupertino and Los Gatos + a little bit of Monterrey County

#6: Santa Clara County between Cupertino and downtown San Jose

#7: most of the rest of Santa Clara County south of (and including) downtown San Jose. Excludes the southernmost part of the county around Gilroy.

#8: remainder of Alameda County and a little bit of San Ramon in Contra Costa County

#9: remainder of Contra Costa County + all of Solano County + outlying SW portion of Sacramento County + San Joaquin County west of Modesto

Spoiler alert: SoCal 1

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#10: Orange County Gerrymander Part 1- contains Anaheim, Yorba Linda, Orange, and La Habra. Borders LA County in the north.

#11: San Gabriel Valley in LA County. The idea was to draw a heavily Chinese suburban county including Monterrey Park, Alhambra, and Arcadia.

#12: Orange County Gerrymander Part 2- contains Irvine, Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, the OC portion of Chino Hills State Park, and some of the heavily Asian suburbs in the SE corner of LA County.

#13: "Whites in 4th place and <10% of resident pop" district for the LA suburbs. Includes portions of South-Central LA proper, Inglewood, Gardena, Torrance, Carson, Long Beach, Cerritos, Buena Park (in Orange County), Fullerton, westernmost Anaheim, western Garden Grove, and Westminster's Little Saigon district.

Resident population is 33.6% Latino, 28.5% Black, 28.4% Asian, and 9.7% (Non-Hispanic) White, CVAP is 24.6% Latino, 33.1% Black, 27.9% Asian, and 12.7% (Non-Hispanic) White.

Spoiler alert: SoCal 2

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#14: Orange County Gerrymander Part 3- borders the Orange County portion of #13 to the south. Contains most of Garden Grove, almost all of Santa Ana and Fountain Valley, and much of Costa Mesa and Huntington Beach. Borders LA County.

#15: Orange County Gerrymander Part 4- remainder of coastal Orange County starting from the middle of Laguna Niguel + part of the Gateway Cities in SE LA County. Borders the LA County portion of #13 that's east of downtown Long Beach.

#16: Orange County Gerrymander Part 5- easternmost portion of Orange County + northwestern Riverside County (includes most of Corona) + parts of Chino, Ontario, and Fontana in San Bernardino County

#17: coastal strip of South LA County- includes the remainder of Long Beach and extends to Hermosa Beach and Lawndale. Borders #13 on the south.

#18: LA proper west of downtown extending to the Santa Monica border + Beverly Hills + West Hollywood. Includes Koreatown, Bel-Air, and most of Hollywood

#19: LAX airport + most of Inglewood + part of LA proper (around Culver City). Includes Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades

#20: contains most of the area you'd think would be included in #13 if black flight wasn't a thing (southernmost LA proper, most of Compton, all of Paramount and Lynwood). Extends to the Orange County border

Spoiler alert: SoCal 3

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#21: contains most of Riverside (the city) in Riverside County + part of Fontana and Rialto in San Bernardino County

#22: Riverside County Gerrymander Part 1- contains Temecula, Murrieta, and most of Moreno Valley in Riverside County + a rural chunk of northernmost San Diego County

#23: contains San Bernardino (the city), Loma Linda, Redlands, and Yucaipa in San Bernardino County- as well as Hesperia in the Victor Valley and portions of "urbanized" Riverside County to the south

#24: contains Glendora and Claremont in LA County, most of Rancho Cucamonga in San Bernardino County, and the western half of the Victor Valley

#25: remainder of Riverside County (Palm Springs area) + remainder of the Victor Valley in San Bernardino County + all of the Salton Sea + rural San Diego County north of the Anza-Borrego Desert Park

#26: Riverside County Gerrymander Part 2- remainder of Riverside County east of Temecula + most of the Mexican border in Imperial and San Diego counties. Includes half of Chula Vista and part of Imperial Beach south of San Diego proper, as well as a little bit of Escondido.

#27: Northern San Diego County from the Marine Corps base down to Del Mar and the middle of Escondido.

#28: contains La Jolla (UCSD), Poway, and the remainder of Escondido in the northern San Diego suburbs

#29: contains much of San Diego proper east of downtown, El Cajon, and other eastern San Diego suburbs

#30: remainder of San Diego County around Downtown San Diego and the bay. Extends to the Mexican Border in Imperial Beach.

#31: contains Griffith Park in Los Angeles + all of Glendale and Pasadena

Spoiler alert: rest of state 1

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#32: contains Stockton and all of San Joaquin County directly to its north + most of eastern Sacramento County (includes Folsom and Citrus Heights)

#33: contains all of Yolo County (Davis + West Sacramento) + all of Solano County from Vacaville northwards + the southern Sacramento suburbs + a small portion of NW Sacramento proper near (but not including) the main airport

#34: contains the rest of Sacramento proper + some of the "inner" suburbs within Sacremento County

#35: contains all of Placer (Sacramento exurbs), Nevada, and El Dorado Counties + a small portion of northernmost Sacramento County + the main population centers of Amador County

#36: basically the entire northern Central Valley and the areas to the east. Contains the main Sacramento airport with far NW Sacramento County + all of Sutter, Yuba, Colusa, Butte (Chico), Glenn, Tehama, Shasta (Redding), Modoc, Lassen, Plumas, and Sierra Counties.

#37: contains all of Siskiyou, Trinity, Lake, and Napa Counties + the inland parts of Mendocino and Sonoma Counties + the remaining SW third of Solano County + part of northern Contra Costa County

#38: contains all of Marin County + most of Sonoma County + coastal Mendocino County + all of Humboldt and Del Norte Counties. Basically the entire coast north of SF

Spoiler alert: rest of state 2

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#39: contains most of Stanislaus County around Modesto + the remainder of San Joaquin County + most of Calaveras County + part of SW Amador County

#40: contains the remainder of Stanislaus County + all of Merced County + Madera County west of Madera and US-99 + the western half of Fresno and much of Fresno County west of US-99 + part of Kings County

#41: contains the eastern half of Fresno + most of the rest of Fresno County + all of Mariposa, Tuolumne, Alpine, Mono, and Inyo Counties + the remainder of Amador, Calaveras, and Madera Counties + a tiny bit of NE Kern County. Basically most of the Sierra Nevada-area National Parks

#42: all of Tulare County + most of Kings County + the remainder of Fresno County (including the Kings Canyon area) + northern Kern County

#43: most of Kern County from Bakersfield eastward + adjacent, sparsely populated portion of San Bernardino County + part of NW LA County north of Lancaster

#44: almost all of Monterrey County barring the far north + all of San Benito County + a tiny bit of southernmost Santa Clara County + most of hinterland San Luis Obispo County + the remaining SW portions of Fresno and Kern Counties. Basically most of the Central Coast

Spoiler alert: SoCal 4

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#45: much of remaining coastal San Luis Obispo County + all of Santa Barbara County + the less populated portion of Ventura County (including Ventura) + part of NW LA County bordering #43, west of I-5

#46: the remainder of Ventura County (Oxnard, Thousand Oaks) + Malibu along NW coastal LA County + a tiny bit of NW LA County west of I-5

#47: contains all of Burbank + LA proper within the San Fernando Valley east of the Van Nuys airport

#48: contains SW San Bernardino County west/southwest of Ontario (Chino and Chino Hills) + Pomona, Covina/West Covina, Baldwin Park, and Azusa in LA County

#49: Downtown LA proper + heavily Latino areas to the immediate south and east

#50: More "inner suburbs" of LA, including Downey, Whittier, La Habra Heights, and Hacienda Heights. Borders #20 to the south and #49 to the northwest

#51: remainder of northern LA County east of I-5. Includes most of Santa Clarita + Palmdale and Lancaster. TL;DR- Mike Garcia

#52: western San Fernando Valley (from the Van Nuys airport west +  everywhere west of the Olive View- UCLA medical center) + part of Santa Clarita west of I-5

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Did a full redistricting attempt for Cali based on Re: Draw a district challenge: Whites in 4th place. 34 Safe D, 3 Safe R, 15 competitive- 10 of which are in SoCal. This was a deliberate D gerrymander of Orange, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. I would've liked the district boundaries to correspond more closely to county and municipal boundaries.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f7f11071-3203-4611-80a7-1dd4df6500f7

#1: "Whites in 4th place and <10% of resident pop" attempt for the Bay Area. Contains all of the heavily Black areas in the East Bay from Richmond (Contra Costa) through Oakland (Alameda) and the heavily Asian areas down to Milpitas and NE-most San Jose (Santa Clara).

Resident population is 28.0% Latino, 18.4% Black, 38.3% Asian, and 15.6% (Non-Hispanic) White. CVAP is 19.9-21.2% White/Black/Latino and 35.4% Asian.


#13: "Whites in 4th place and <10% of resident pop" district for the LA suburbs. Includes portions of South-Central LA proper, Inglewood, Gardena, Torrance, Carson, Long Beach, Cerritos, Buena Park (in Orange County), Fullerton, westernmost Anaheim, western Garden Grove, and Westminster's Little Saigon district.

Resident population is 33.6% Latino, 28.5% Black, 28.4% Asian, and 9.7% (Non-Hispanic) White, CVAP is 24.6% Latino, 33.1% Black, 27.9% Asian, and 12.7% (Non-Hispanic) White.

Updated version that reflects population shifts from 2019 estimates to 2020 census results: https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b7683e4-3262-4942-8387-f5593908e421

Original version (2019 population, 2016-2020 composite): 46 D-leaning, 6 R-leaning

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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New version (2020 population, 2016-2020 composite): also 46 D-leaning, 6 R-leaning, except Inyo County is now in a (Lean?) D district.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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New District #1: Resident population is 28.2% Latino, 17.0% Black, 39.7% Asian, and 15.0% (Non-Hispanic) White. CVAP is 25.6% Latino, 17.0% Black, 40.0% Asian, and 16.7% (Non-Hispanic) White.

New District #13: Resident population is 34.5% Latino, 28.3% Black, 28.3% Asian, and 9.4% (Non-Hispanic) White. CVAP is 31.5% Latino, 28.6% Black, 29.2% Asian, and 10.5% (Non-Hispanic) White.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Did they actually chop the Santa Ana Anaheim seat?

They did and it is completely unacceptable. Fountain Valley and Santa Ana in the same district is ridiculous.

Why?

They’re neighboring suburbs/cities with very different socioeconomic profiles. Fountain Valley is affluent and R-leaning, Santa Ana is working-class and strongly D.

It’s great if you want to gerrymander the shiite out of SoCal like I did in my “draw a LAX suburban district that’s <10% non-Hispanic white” CA map. Actually I wonder if my map inspired that lmao

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Uh I wouldn’t exactly call Kim’s district a GOP vote sink; looks like it only went to Trump by 5 or so. Steele’s looks like Biden + 4ish and Porter like Biden + 14 or smtg

That is a GOP vote sink by Orange County/Young Kim standards. Young Kim currently represents a Biden +10 district where she won by 1.2, and Orange County in general and Northeast OC/Korean-American Southeast LA were both favorable/very favorable to ticket-splitting in 2020, so giving Kim a Trump seat of any kind, let alone a Trump +5 one, is a "sink."

Yeah there’s no way that Eastern Orange County + Yorba Linda + Chino Hills district isn’t a R vote sink

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Sadhwani is the obvious Dem hack on the commission.

snip
Seems like a large part of her map proposal came from this one.

The Orange County to Long Beach and Orange County to Central Los Angeles districts are pretty funny. What kind of community of interest includes Northeast Orange County and Urban Los Angeles in one district?

I don’t think the light blue district extends into Orange County. It seems to stop at the county line. The dark brown district looks like the new CA-39 and seems centered on the more hilly, more suburban tripoint between Los Angeles, Orange, and San Bernardino Counties.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

A century ago, Dr. Yee’s ancestors left southern China for “Gum Saan” (“Gold Mountain”). They settled in Oakland, where his parents and then he and his brothers were all born and raised.

He graduated from Oakland High School, UC Berkeley (BS), Dallas Theological Seminary (ThM), and the Graduate Theological Union (PhD), where his research focused on sociolinguistic aspects of liturgical and free worship. He has taught mostly for Fuller Theological Seminary and especially enjoys teaching his class on Oakland for St. Mary’s College.

He’s the author of Worship on the Way (2012), which explores worship in Asian and South East Asian North American churches. He pastored a church for ten years and is active in his present multicultural church community, which wrestles tangibly with matters of social justice, class & race, cultural contextualization, community redevelopment, crime & safety, recovery, re-entry, and homelessness.

He’s a longtime history docent at the Oakland Museum of California, with a special interest in the state’s indigenous peoples. He was the first board secretary for Habitat for Humanity East Bay (now East Bay/Silicon Valley). An avid marathon runner, he volunteers with Running for a Better Oakland, a youth sports and scholarship program.

He lives in Oakland with his wife, Dr. Lisa Yee, who is a physician at a community health center. He is registered with the Republican Party.

A "Republican" who "wrestles tangibly with matters of social justice, class & race, cultural contextualization, community redevelopment, crime & safety, recovery, re-entry, and homelessness."

I intentionally didn't mention any of the Democrats here but when 2 of your independents are openly very left wing and one of your Republicans is clearly a Republican-In-Name-Only it should be no surprise that the commission is drawing maps like this.

None of these are necessarily partisan issues. These are all legit issues R candidates will have to deal with if they want to become more competitive in currently D-leaning districts.

Now, admittedly, Republicans might still win some of those 43 blue seats in 2022 -- ie, SAVANAANA and NOCOAST, and SAVANAANA I could see getting redder by the end of the decade, but this is definitely a D leaning map.

Why do you think it will get redder?

Yeah I can't see the Westminster-Garden Grove district in this map trending R over the long term, given that the local 2016-2020 R swing was almost entirely due to one-time increased turnout rather than Biden losing raw votes from HRC.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Now, admittedly, Republicans might still win some of those 43 blue seats in 2022 -- ie, SAVANAANA and NOCOAST, and SAVANAANA I could see getting redder by the end of the decade, but this is definitely a D leaning map.

Why do you think it will get redder?

Yeah I can't see the Westminster-Garden Grove district in this map trending R over the long term, given that the local 2016-2020 R swing was almost entirely due to one-time increased turnout rather than Biden losing raw votes from HRC.

I'd be wary of building analysis around Biden having more votes than HRC considering that that was true basically everywhere in the country, and for both parties -- ie, Trump got more votes in Morris County NJ in 2020 than 2016, but that doesn't mean the county isn't trending left.

The 2016-2020 trend in that area won't repeat itself next cycle because the additional marginal voters the R candidate would need to pick up for that probably don't exist. Nor can I see Trump flipping lots of people who voted against him once or twice if he runs a third time.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Is the Garden Grove district on the latest map CA-39 or CA-48?

CA-45 in CalamityBlue’s screenshots

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

What exactly is the COI of this district? Not rlly an expert on Cali geography tbh, but I’m not rlly grasping it.

Majority Asian-American (and mostly Chinese IIRC) seat in the San Gabriel Valley.

I have an Alhambra + Arcadia centered Chinese district (#11), with the (East) Asian-heavy area near the borders with Orange and San Bernardino Counties split among a Downey-Hacienda Heights district (#50), a Covina-Pomona-Chino Hills [SB] district (#48), and the alternate version of Young Kim's district that stretches down to Irvine [Orange] (#12) in my SoCal D gerrymander/“whites in 4th place district with 2020 data” map. I love how DRA has a racial dots feature now with both VAP and general population options.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::5b7683e4-3262-4942-8387-f5593908e421