COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[PSOL]

Fed frets about small business failures amid 'alarming' data

...

Meanwhile job losses have been steeper at small businesses than large ones, with many small firms stopping paychecks entirely, the Fed said. Some 30% to 40% of small firms in sectors most affected by social distancing have gone inactive since February. Spending at small restaurants was down 80% by April during the height of the nation’s shutdowns and was still down by half in early June, the Fed said, citing data from credit card transaction processor Womply.

...

This is the end of small businesses in the United States unless drastic change gets implemented in a timely manner, which it won’t.

[HillGoose]

bruh some of my friends on facebook were sharing this thing that said that 90% of ppl who got covid infections got it in their own damn house.

now why tf was lockdown a thing then?? that's messed up brah.

it's times like this i am glad i live in a red state where the gov won't shut us down again.

i'd actually rather die than live through quarantine a second time, and i think a lot of ppl feel the same way.

[It’s so Joever]

bruh some of my friends on facebook were sharing this thing that said that 90% of ppl who got covid infections got it in their own damn house.

now why tf was lockdown a thing then?? that's messed up brah.

it's times like this i am glad i live in a red state where the gov won't shut us down again.

i'd actually rather die than live through quarantine a second time, and i think a lot of ppl feel the same way.

“Nearly 98-99% of car accidents involved cars that had seatbelts installed in them! Now that’s messed up brah! Thank god I personally sawed my seatbelts off like any normal person would do!
I’d rather actually die than wear the tight nylon chain of oppression!”

[Progressive Pessimist]

I gotta hand it to New York, New Jersey, Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, Massachusetts, D.C., Michigan, Pennsylvania, and perhaps a few others for somehow bringing the case count so low.

So why are California and Arizona so bad now?

Someone is actually praising my state? I'm not used to this.

[HillGoose]

bruh some of my friends on facebook were sharing this thing that said that 90% of ppl who got covid infections got it in their own damn house.

now why tf was lockdown a thing then?? that's messed up brah.

it's times like this i am glad i live in a red state where the gov won't shut us down again.

i'd actually rather die than live through quarantine a second time, and i think a lot of ppl feel the same way.

“Nearly 98-99% of car accidents involved cars that had seatbelts installed in them! Now that’s messed up brah! Thank god I personally sawed my seatbelts off like any normal person would do!
I’d rather actually die than wear the tight nylon chain of oppression!”

bruh the post they were sharing was from a very reputable news organization, something like AMERICANPATRIOTNEWSONE DOT NET lmao

[Grassroots]

The democrats have no right to force stay at home orders down our throats for the resurgence that they caused by supporting the protests and riots.

Really going off the rails as of late, Grassy. 

My view is a very mainstream view.

[Bidenworth2020]

The democrats have no right to force stay at home orders down our throats for the resurgence that they caused by supporting the protests and riots.

Really going off the rails as of late, Grassy. 

My view is a very mainstream view.

ever heard of polls my guy

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Atul_Gawande/status/1271521310108266499

MASKS WORK.  PLEASE WEAR THEM.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Latest US vs. European case and death graphs

National death numbers continue to improve across the board.  Average deaths are now under 800 in the US, and under 200 in the UK.  (As others have noted, Spain changed their method of counting deaths about 2 weeks ago that makes their current zero average pretty meaningless, but all five other countries are meaningfully declining.)

On the state front, New Jersey and Illinois have now both troublingly passed New York for most daily average deaths, while Massachusetts and Pennsylvania show rapid drops.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/Atul_Gawande/status/1271521310108266499

MASKS WORK.  PLEASE WEAR THEM.

It seems like we could have saved so many lives and prevented so much hardship by just enforcing mask requirements two months ago in lieu of locking down in most places.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Researchers in Florida say they believe they have shown that the new coronavirus has mutated in a way that makes it more easily infect human cells.

They say more research is needed to show whether the change has altered the course of the pandemic, but at least one researcher not involved in the study says it likely has, and the changes may explain why the virus has caused so many infections in the United States and Latin America.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/12/health/coronavirus-mutations-scripps-gene/index.html

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/12 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>

5/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,837,165 (+20,345 | Δ Change: ↓12.65% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 106,190 (+633 | Δ Change: ↓37.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/1:

• Cases: 1,859,323 (+22,158 | Δ Change: ↑8.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.21%)
• Deaths: 106,925 (+735 | Δ Change: ↑16.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)

6/2:

• Cases: 1,881,205 (+21,882 | Δ Change: ↓1.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 108,059 (+1,134 | Δ Change: ↑54.29% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

6/3:

• Cases: 1,901,783 (+20,578 | Δ Change: ↓5.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)
• Deaths: 109,142 (+1,083 | Δ Change: ↓4.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

6/4:

• Cases: 1,924,051 (+22,268 | Δ Change: ↑8.21% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 110,173 (+1,031 | Δ Change: ↓4.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

6/5:

• Cases: 1,953,423 (+29,372 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.53%)
• Deaths: 111,384 (+1,211 | Δ Change: ↑17.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.10%)

6/6:

• Cases: 1,987,175 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↑14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.73%)
• Deaths: 112,057 (+673 | Δ Change: ↓44.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,007,449 (+20,274 | Δ Change: ↓39.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 112,469 (+412 | Δ Change: ↓38.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

6/8:

• Cases: 2,026,493 (+19,044 | Δ Change: ↓6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.95%)
• Deaths: 113,055 (+586 | Δ Change: ↑42.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

6/9:

• Cases: 2,045,549 (+19,056 | Δ Change: ↑0.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)
• Deaths: 114,148 (+1,093 | Δ Change: ↑86.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

6/10:

• Cases: 2,066,508 (+20,959 | Δ Change: ↑9.98% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 115,137 (+989 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.87%)

6/11 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,089,701 (+23,193 | Δ Change: ↑10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 116,034 (+897 | Δ Change: ↓9.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

6/12 (Today):

• Cases: 2,116,922 (+27,221 | Δ Change: ↑17.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 116,825 (+791 | Δ Change: ↓11.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

[Grassroots]

It appears that cases are increasing generally in places where the initial outbreak wasn't bad.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

That cases now seem to be trending upwards across virtually all of the south and southwest is troubling. No doubt this is to some degree due to increased testing, since tests have been increasing (and were higher today), but I think Аverroës' and peenie_weenie's point about air conditioning in the south/southwest likely has a lot to do with it. It seems like (and I have seen from personal experience) huge #s of people think that "the pandemic is over" and have stopped taking the virus seriously and are not taking basic precautions (including but not limited to not wearing masks) that could slow/stop spread like it has been slowed down/stopped in numerous other countries. And we are now starting to pay the price for that. The protests will likely only make this worse, regardless of how just the cause of the protests may be.

It is interesting/good that while cases appear to be going back up again, deaths still seem to be trending down a bit. However, there are too reasons why we should not only look at the death figures to get a good idea of whether/to what degree a second wave/resurgence is starting -

1) Deaths are a lagging indicator, so we should expect to see an uptrend in cases before an uptrend in deaths, if we are having a 2nd wave.
2) Doctors may have gotten a bit better at treating the virus, and maybe (hopefully?) the death rate may have gone down a bit gradually. It would be nice to have evidence/data indicating this were the case. Though if this were the case, that would mean the death data going down was not indicating that the virus was under any more control.

Because of those 2 interpretive problems with death data and the problem of figuring out how much of any increase in cases is due to increased testing, the most reliable data would seem to be hospitalizations. But this is the type of data that is inconsistently reported by different states and across time, unfortunately. So we just hear occasionally that hospitalizations have gone up or down in some states, but this data is not on sources like worldometer.

At the moment it looks to me like we are probably on the same general course as Iran, where they opened up too early and had a second wave/resurgence before their 1st wave really declined.

If indeed there is a 2nd wave, this will cause more long-term damage to the economy than we would have had if we had properly taken steps to actually beat back/contain the virus in the first place to the same sort of degree that countries like South Korea and Germany have done. So it seems to me that as a result of our incompetent half-assed response, we remain on track for a worst of all worlds outcome. More deaths, and also more economic damage.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Interestingly, this sounds exactly like...

TRUMP

https://twitter.com/spwells/status/1271586947383701505

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It appears that cases are increasing generally in places where the initial outbreak wasn't bad.

California had a death Feb. 6th and yet we're not clearly getting better yet.

[It’s so Joever]

That cases now seem to be trending upwards across virtually all of the south and southwest is troubling. No doubt this is to some degree due to increased testing, since tests have been increasing (and were higher today), but I think Аverroës' and peenie_weenie's point about air conditioning in the south/southwest likely has a lot to do with it. It seems like (and I have seen from personal experience) huge #s of people think that "the pandemic is over" and have stopped taking the virus seriously and are not taking basic precautions (including but not limited to not wearing masks) that could slow/stop spread like it has been slowed down/stopped in numerous other countries. And we are now starting to pay the price for that. The protests will likely only make this worse, regardless of how just the cause of the protests may be.

It is interesting/good that while cases appear to be going back up again, deaths still seem to be trending down a bit. However, there are too reasons why we should not only look at the death figures to get a good idea of whether/to what degree a second wave/resurgence is starting -

1) Deaths are a lagging indicator, so we should expect to see an uptrend in cases before an uptrend in deaths, if we are having a 2nd wave.
2) Doctors may have gotten a bit better at treating the virus, and maybe (hopefully?) the death rate may have gone down a bit gradually. It would be nice to have evidence/data indicating this were the case. Though if this were the case, that would mean the death data going down was not indicating that the virus was under any more control.

Because of those 2 interpretive problems with death data and the problem of figuring out how much of any increase in cases is due to increased testing, the most reliable data would seem to be hospitalizations. But this is the type of data that is inconsistently reported by different states and across time, unfortunately. So we just hear occasionally that hospitalizations have gone up or down in some states, but this data is not on sources like worldometer.

At the moment it looks to me like we are probably on the same general course as Iran, where they opened up too early and had a second wave/resurgence before their 1st wave really declined.

If indeed there is a 2nd wave, this will cause more long-term damage to the economy than we would have had if we had properly taken steps to actually beat back/contain the virus in the first place to the same sort of degree that countries like South Korea and Germany have done. So it seems to me that as a result of our incompetent half-assed response, we remain on track for a worst of all worlds outcome. More deaths, and also more economic damage.

A second wave because we reopened way too early and barely enforced the lockdowns?
Who could have seen this coming!?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It appears that cases are increasing generally in places where the initial outbreak wasn't bad.

California had a death Feb. 6th and yet we're not clearly getting better yet.

California is so huge I’m not sure it makes sense to even talk about it as one state.  Most of the early outbreak was in Northern California/Bay Area, and th big trouble spots now seem to be LA/Inland empire.

[Sbane]

bruh some of my friends on facebook were sharing this thing that said that 90% of ppl who got covid infections got it in their own damn house.

now why tf was lockdown a thing then?? that's messed up brah.

it's times like this i am glad i live in a red state where the gov won't shut us down again.

i'd actually rather die than live through quarantine a second time, and i think a lot of ppl feel the same way.

Just wear a damn mask tho

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/weijia/status/1271576628683038720

[Brittain33]

It appears that cases are increasing generally in places where the initial outbreak wasn't bad.

California had a death Feb. 6th and yet we're not clearly getting better yet.

California had deaths early but also shut down so quickly and effectively that the initial outbreak was not bad.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Well, Florida is reporting +2,581 cases on Worldometer, compared to its previous high yesterday of 1,902. And what is worse, it is a weekend, cases are usually lower on weekends, right? That is quite a large increase and a very worrying uptrend. Alabama also reported its highest case # so far today.

We will have to wait and see what the other states report later in the day, if the other southern/southwestern states show a similar trend, that will mean serious problems going forward. With each passing day at the moment, we are looking more like Iran.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, Florida is reporting +2,581 cases on Worldometer, compared to its previous high yesterday of 1,902. And what is worse, it is a weekend, cases are usually lower on weekends, right? That is quite a large increase and a very worrying uptrend. Alabama also reported its highest case # so far today.

We will have to wait and see what the other states report later in the day, if the other southern/southwestern states show a similar trend, that will mean serious problems going forward. With each passing day at the moment, we are looking more like Iran.

Remember when there were people saying that the coming of hot weather would make the virus fade away?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Statistics and news reports don't generally report details of who in particular is being newly infected. However, of the anecdotal news reports I have seen around in Texas, most of them recently seem to be reports of retail employees who have gotten infected from recently re-opened businesses. This primarily has been restaurant employees near me, but also to some degree retail workers in stores. This has generally been announced by the restaurant/store in question and in quite a few cases the restaurants/stores have now re-closed because of the employee infections.

I am just wondering, in other areas have other posters seen similar reports? Insofar as details about who is being infected are getting reported in your area, are you hearing about employees in restaurants/retail getting infected? And are stores/restaurants re-closing in response to this?

[Sir Mohamed]

Well, Florida is reporting +2,581 cases on Worldometer, compared to its previous high yesterday of 1,902. And what is worse, it is a weekend, cases are usually lower on weekends, right? That is quite a large increase and a very worrying uptrend. Alabama also reported its highest case # so far today.

We will have to wait and see what the other states report later in the day, if the other southern/southwestern states show a similar trend, that will mean serious problems going forward. With each passing day at the moment, we are looking more like Iran.

Remember when there were people saying that the coming of hot weather would make the virus fade away?

Tbh, this assumption wasn't that unjustified. People including some scientists at the very beginning thought this virus, just like others, will either fade away or its spread seriously slowed down as a result of warmer weather. It's well known dry air and UV radiation inhibit many viruses from spreading, such as the flu. Back in March, if I remember correctly, first studies revealed this might not be the case with Sars 2. Turned out the be true, obviously, though there is some evidence the summer months have a small effect. Just not nearly enough to get the pandemic under actual control. It may get worse as we move into fall and cause the so-called 2nd wave (despite the 1st not actually over yet).