COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Dr. Arch]

Also, what New York (among other places) shows is that 60%-70% don't have to be infected. The virus can be contained, at minuscule levels, until a vaccine or treatment is available.

We don’t actually know that.  At this point, it’s probably a question of whether a vaccine is available before a second wave comes.  But at least we do have treatments now!

Second wave?  We're still in the first wave.

I do think it’s reasonable to say that the “first wave” is essentially over in New York.

In New York, sure, but look at what the abrupt re-openings have done to FL, TX, etc.

The discussion you are quoting was specifically about NY.

And my comment is directly related to the discussion on the effects of the first wave vs. the second wave.

[Hammy]

I don’t see what the concern is. We know it’s not nearly as fatal as we once believed. And as far as fatality goes overall, most survive, and just like with any illness some of course will die.

You can’t save everyone.

And you can’t put the entire nation in economic jeopardy in order to save a few centennials. I don’t care if it sounds crass, it’s a cost-benefit analysis that must be done.

Roughly a quarter of coronavirus cases require hospitalization--the problem is if you just let it run rampant more people will get it, and the ICUs will run out of room. As the cases keep going up, hospitals become overwhelmed, people who would otherwise survive with treatment die because there's no room, not to mention people with other illnesses or life threatening injuries (car accidents for example) who will die because they can't get into a hospital.

The ONLY reason the number of deaths isn't higher is because so far that's been prevented from happening on a larger nationwide scale because of the precautions. Toss those out the window and the death rate skyrockets.

[emailking]

Isn't it just an informal term? Like who cares if this is the 2nd wave or part of the first. Unless there's a clear definition we can evaluate then it's just a matter of opinion.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don’t see what the concern is. We know it’s not nearly as fatal as we once believed. And as far as fatality goes overall, most survive, and just like with any illness some of course will die.

You can’t save everyone.

And you can’t put the entire nation in economic jeopardy in order to save a few centennials. I don’t care if it sounds crass, it’s a cost-benefit analysis that must be done.

Roughly a quarter of coronavirus cases require hospitalization--the problem is if you just let it run rampant more people will get it, and the ICUs will run out of room. As the cases keep going up, hospitals become overwhelmed, people who would otherwise survive with treatment die because there's no room, not to mention people with other illnesses or life threatening injuries (car accidents for example) who will die because they can't get into a hospital.

The ONLY reason the number of deaths isn't higher is because so far that's been prevented from happening on a larger nationwide scale because of the precautions. Toss those out the window and the death rate skyrockets.

This is happening right now in Florida:
ICU beds in short supply across Florida as state struggles with coronavirus spike

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Either state governments are getting more blatant about hiding deaths or new infections are concentrated among much lower-risk populations than they were in March.

Why are you a Republican now?!

Because Phil Scott isn't bad and Democrats, especially those under 40, have stopped pretending to care about what I value most. I intend to address the change in greater detail at some point. Lockdown resentment was my catalyst.

I will be eagerly awaiting this post or draft versions of it.

(I am not being flippant or sarcastic)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Also, what New York (among other places) shows is that 60%-70% don't have to be infected. The virus can be contained, at minuscule levels, until a vaccine or treatment is available.

We don’t actually know that.  At this point, it’s probably a question of whether a vaccine is available before a second wave comes.  But at least we do have treatments now!

Second wave?  We're still in the first wave.

I do think it’s reasonable to say that the “first wave” is essentially over in New York.

In New York, sure, but look at what the abrupt re-openings have done to FL, TX, etc.

The discussion you are quoting was specifically about NY.

And my comment is directly related to the discussion on the effects of the first wave vs. the second wave.

No one is questioning that many states are still in the “first wave”.  The question was whether New York is an example of successfully containing the virus at an infection level well below herd immunity.  And I think the answer to that will depend on whether we see a second wave in NY, not whether other states are still in the first wave.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Remember, today's hot spots are tomorrow's New Yorks.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

I’ve said this from the very beginning, and it hasn’t changed:

Imagine if we tracked every dangerous illness circulating the United States - counting cases, showing ‘hotspots’, counting (erroneous) fatality rates, hyping and fear mongering media profiting off of manufactured crises - no one would go any where, ever again.

But we don’t do that. We accept that life inherently carries risks. We understand we need to look out for others and that also includes and extends to all others outside of any medical sense. We isolate the very vulnerable, and care for those who are in a medical emergency.

We don’t go about life trying to prevent us catching an illness so that we don’t ‘asymptotically’ pass something we probably don’t even have off of to tomorrow else. Well yes, that’s called a virus. What are you expecting.

I’ve been on this earth for almost 33 years, and this is the dumbest thing I have ever witnessed.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1274096073083101190

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1274096165470994438?s=20

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Has the EU restricted international travel at all? If so that's a pretty compelling reason why EU would have a lower case load than the US (and that's ignoring any differences in testing).

edited: initially wrote higher case load when I meant lower case load

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1274096165470994438?s=20

My goodness...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Has the EU restricted international travel at all? If so that's a pretty compelling reason why EU would have a higher case load than the US (and that's ignoring any differences in testing).

Yes, the EU restricted travel (even internally within the Schengen area) in March.  They are just now relaxing some restrictions; it varies from country to country.  See https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-travel-europe-country-by-country-travel-restrictions-explained-summer-2020/.

[parochial boy]

Has the EU restricted international travel at all? If so that's a pretty compelling reason why EU would have a higher case load than the US (and that's ignoring any differences in testing).

Yes, virtually every European country closed or severely restricted border crossings once things got bad. That is around the middle of March, and the travel restrictions came in a messy and un-coordinated way, which inadvertently made things worse for a while. They’ve been reopening them in a more or less co-ordinated way, so as of a few days ago unrestricted travel is possible across the majority of the EU/Schengen zone at least.

Based on some of the revelations that have been coming out recently, quite a few European countries’ health authorities did badly miscalculate and underestimate how nasty and fast spreading the disease was back in February/early March, which helped the explosion in case numbers happen (notably due to carnival season and soccer matches). But the subsequent reaction wasn’t as... demented as in the US (excepting perhaps a certain island nation on the north-western edge of the continent), which explains why things seem a lot better now.

[It’s so Joever]

I’ve said this from the very beginning, and it hasn’t changed:

Imagine if we tracked every dangerous illness circulating the United States - counting cases, showing ‘hotspots’, counting (erroneous) fatality rates, hyping and fear mongering media profiting off of manufactured crises - no one would go any where, ever again.

But we don’t do that. We accept that life inherently carries risks. We understand we need to look out for others and that also includes and extends to all others outside of any medical sense. We isolate the very vulnerable, and care for those who are in a medical emergency.

We don’t go about life trying to prevent us catching an illness so that we don’t ‘asymptotically’ pass something we probably don’t even have off of to tomorrow else. Well yes, that’s called a virus. What are you expecting.

I’ve been on this earth for almost 33 years, and this is the dumbest thing I have ever witnessed.

Please infect yourself deliberately and don’t waste hospital resources no matter how sick you get. Go on and do it since you are so sure of yourself.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I’ve said this from the very beginning, and it hasn’t changed:

Imagine if we tracked every dangerous illness circulating the United States - counting cases, showing ‘hotspots’, counting (erroneous) fatality rates, hyping and fear mongering media profiting off of manufactured crises - no one would go any where, ever again.

But we don’t do that. We accept that life inherently carries risks. We understand we need to look out for others and that also includes and extends to all others outside of any medical sense. We isolate the very vulnerable, and care for those who are in a medical emergency.

We don’t go about life trying to prevent us catching an illness so that we don’t ‘asymptotically’ pass something we probably don’t even have off of to tomorrow else. Well yes, that’s called a virus. What are you expecting.

I’ve been on this earth for almost 33 years, and this is the dumbest thing I have ever witnessed.

Please infect yourself deliberately and don’t waste hospital resources no matter how sick you get. Go on and do it since you are so sure of yourself.

Honestly, the only reason I'm scared of this virus is that I would go insane if I tested positive and had to spend two weeks alone.  That's literally the only reason I'm trying not to get it (largely by diligent handwashing), while also not limiting my social activity.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

These awful numbers for the sunbelt states near the summer solstice kind of kills the hope that summer is automatically better.

[ilikeverin]

These awful numbers for the sunbelt states near the summer solstice kind of kills the hope that summer is automatically better.

To me, it suggests an alternative hypothesis: cases spike at times of the year when people stay indoors. Cases disappear at times of the year when people are happy to be outdoors. Those are different times in different places.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1274127246404595712

[GP270watch]

I’ve said this from the very beginning, and it hasn’t changed:

Imagine if we tracked every dangerous illness circulating the United States - counting cases, showing ‘hotspots’, counting (erroneous) fatality rates, hyping and fear mongering media profiting off of manufactured crises - no one would go any where, ever again.

But we don’t do that.

 We do this!

 The CDC tracks every disease and does map out where they are, even ones that are not "deadly". The reason that Covid-19 is different is because it's new, people are dying from it, and we still don't even know what the disease does and what the longterm effects are.

 You guys will really just type anything without thinking.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1274127246404595712

It would be a significant change if Republican Governors (besides Baker and Hogan, who mandated them in heavily Democratic states), were to begin mandating mask usage in public. Thus far, almost every Democratic Governor in the country, except for those of Oregon, Wisconsin, Nevada, Minnesota, and Colorado, has mandated mask-wearing in public. Its obvious to me at this point that the arguments of those opposed to mandatory masks have lost, and if cases do continue to spike, the practice will become more widespread.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1274127246404595712

So just because you can't trace every case, you shouldn't trace any of them.

Yeah, that'll really help.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Here's an idea. Since everyone wants to make stuff mandatory, how about if instead of a "stay at home" order, we have a "stay outside" order.

Since the virus doesn't spread as well outside, why don't we all stay outside as much as poss?

[Dr. Arch]

Here's an idea. Since everyone wants to make stuff mandatory, how about if instead of a "stay at home" order, we have a "stay outside" order.

Since the virus doesn't spread as well outside, why don't we all stay outside as much as poss?

!?? Are you just coming with stuff up as you go or what?

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/19 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>

6/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,007,449 (+20,274 | Δ Change: ↓39.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 112,469 (+412 | Δ Change: ↓38.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

6/8:

• Cases: 2,026,493 (+19,044 | Δ Change: ↓6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.95%)
• Deaths: 113,055 (+586 | Δ Change: ↑42.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

6/9:

• Cases: 2,045,549 (+19,056 | Δ Change: ↑0.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)
• Deaths: 114,148 (+1,093 | Δ Change: ↑86.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

6/10:

• Cases: 2,066,508 (+20,959 | Δ Change: ↑9.98% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 115,137 (+989 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.87%)

6/11:

• Cases: 2,089,701 (+23,193 | Δ Change: ↑10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 116,034 (+897 | Δ Change: ↓9.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

6/12:

• Cases: 2,116,922 (+27,221 | Δ Change: ↑17.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 116,825 (+791 | Δ Change: ↓11.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/13:

• Cases: 2,142,224 (+25,302 | Δ Change: ↓7.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
• Deaths: 117,527 (+702 | Δ Change: ↓11.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:

• Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:

• Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:

• Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19 (Today):

• Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
• Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)