COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Calthrina950]

Every GOP senator who attended a news conference today wore a mask.
Via CNN Live Updates.

A group of GOP senators all wore face masks to a news conference to where they unveiled their police reform plan.

When each senator approached the lectern to speak, he or she removed his or her mask. The senators put their masks back on when they returned to the sides of the podium.

This is in contrast to how the White House how handled events and news conferences in the pandemic: In the Rose Garden on Tuesday afternoon, President Trump announced an executive order on policing without a mask on.

And by the look of a video the White House sent out on Twitter shortly afterward, almost no one in attendance wore a mask either.

I'm shocked, but very happy to see they are wearing masks.
True leaders lead by example.
It's also a big "f*** you" to trump (and Pence).

Even Republican Senators (and many Republican Representatives) have been upstaging Trump in this regard. But at this point, it is clear that he isn't going to change his behavior, and I'm not sure how much more profit can be derived for attacking him on that basis.

[It’s so Joever]

And would you look at that, Covid-19 cases per day have been increasing rapidly after the protests and reopenings. I warned that things would go bad sometime between June 12-17, looks like as usual, America failed.
Interestingly, my own State is doing surprisingly well considering the region, although I wouldn’t celebrate too quickly, we praised Louisiana weeks ago and now they are seeing rapid rises outside of NoLa.
We won’t defeat the virus until the vast majority of States take proper action for at least three weeks. This could have been avoided had we stayed the hell at home like most countries until it actually got significantly better, but getting a haircut is more important in a lot of States, I guess.
Now we will have a second wave which will destroy our economy far more than any lockdowns in the first wave, good work Del Tachi, ExtremeRep, and all the other “reopeners” on here.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

https://twitter.com/KagroX/status/1273096304990748672
If you plan on traveling this weekend, please DON'T prefer the SUNBELT STACK

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1273379900066578434

[Progressive Pessimist]

And would you look at that, Covid-19 cases per day have been increasing rapidly after the protests and reopenings. I warned that things would go bad sometime between June 12-17, looks like as usual, America failed.
Interestingly, my own State is doing surprisingly well considering the region, although I wouldn’t celebrate too quickly, we praised Louisiana weeks ago and now they are seeing rapid rises outside of NoLa.
We won’t defeat the virus until the vast majority of States take proper action for at least three weeks. This could have been avoided had we stayed the hell at home like most countries until it actually got significantly better, but getting a haircut is more important in a lot of States, I guess.
Now we will have a second wave which will destroy our economy far more than any lockdowns in the first wave, good work Del Tachi, ExtremeRep, and all the other “reopeners” on here.

Considering that the protests have been occurring in all fifty states and only states in the South and Mountain West seem to seeing the lion's share of increases, I don't think the increases can be so simply attributed to the protests. Really, the increases are happening overall because of impatience or premature re-openings. People just stopped caring as they continue to put other interests ahead of public safety and the re-openings for the sake of the economy have enabled that. And both of those things combined are a consequence of our country's poor social safety net.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Looks like another horrible day in terms of the national trend of overall cases. While cases continue to trend down in the North/Midwest, they continue to trend up across the South/Southwest/West. Another record # of cases for California, and if you want to not count the big batch of prisoners that was reported yesterday, then the Texas cases today are higher than yesterday also.

At this rate, we will probably start exceeding 30k cases a day once again next week, and if policy changes of some sort are not made, and made immediately, we appear on a date with destiny to exceed our previous national record of 39k cases in a single day (and perhaps at this point that is unavoidable even if policy were suddenly changed). The only question is what day that will occur. Could it be as early as late June? August? I doubt we can push it back into September.

Over the last two days it also has started to look more clearly like the positivity rate has broken its downtrend and is also starting to increase on a nationwide level, and it is no longer possible to make an argument that it is still down-trending at this point:

[100% pro-life no matter what]

And would you look at that, Covid-19 cases per day have been increasing rapidly after the protests and reopenings. I warned that things would go bad sometime between June 12-17, looks like as usual, America failed.
Interestingly, my own State is doing surprisingly well considering the region, although I wouldn’t celebrate too quickly, we praised Louisiana weeks ago and now they are seeing rapid rises outside of NoLa.
We won’t defeat the virus until the vast majority of States take proper action for at least three weeks. This could have been avoided had we stayed the hell at home like most countries until it actually got significantly better, but getting a haircut is more important in a lot of States, I guess.
Now we will have a second wave which will destroy our economy far more than any lockdowns in the first wave, good work Del Tachi, ExtremeRep, and all the other “reopeners” on here.

Considering that the protests have been occurring in all fifty states and only states in the South and Mountain West seem to seeing the lion's share of increases, I don't think the increases can be so simply attributed to the protests. Really, the increases are happening overall because of impatience or premature re-openings. People just stopped caring as they continue to put other interests ahead of public safety and the re-openings for the sake of the economy have enabled that. And both of those things combined are a consequence of our country's poor social safety net.

The economy was a portion of it, but I think the bigger factor was that people actually prioritize quality of life a little higher than you do.  Being locked down is a 90%+ reduction in quality of life for most people, and many people are willing to take their chances with a virus with a 0.26% fatality rate and a 2% hospitalization rate (by the CDC's own best estimate) than have that much of a reduction in their quality of life.  I know I am.  For those under 50 (assuming that 50%, rather than 35% of the cases in under 50's are asymptomatic), those numbers are 0.025% (fatality) and 0.85% (hospitalization).

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

[tjstarling]

And would you look at that, Covid-19 cases per day have been increasing rapidly after the protests and reopenings. I warned that things would go bad sometime between June 12-17, looks like as usual, America failed.
Interestingly, my own State is doing surprisingly well considering the region, although I wouldn’t celebrate too quickly, we praised Louisiana weeks ago and now they are seeing rapid rises outside of NoLa.
We won’t defeat the virus until the vast majority of States take proper action for at least three weeks. This could have been avoided had we stayed the hell at home like most countries until it actually got significantly better, but getting a haircut is more important in a lot of States, I guess.
Now we will have a second wave which will destroy our economy far more than any lockdowns in the first wave, good work Del Tachi, ExtremeRep, and all the other “reopeners” on here.

Considering that the protests have been occurring in all fifty states and only states in the South and Mountain West seem to seeing the lion's share of increases, I don't think the increases can be so simply attributed to the protests. Really, the increases are happening overall because of impatience or premature re-openings. People just stopped caring as they continue to put other interests ahead of public safety and the re-openings for the sake of the economy have enabled that. And both of those things combined are a consequence of our country's poor social safety net.

The economy was a portion of it, but I think the bigger factor was that people actually prioritize quality of life a little higher than you do.  Being locked down is a 90%+ reduction in quality of life for most people, and many people are willing to take their chances with a virus with a 0.26% fatality rate and a 2% hospitalization rate (by the CDC's own best estimate) than have that much of a reduction in their quality of life.  I know I am.  For those under 50 (assuming that 50%, rather than 35% of the cases in under 50's are asymptomatic), those numbers are 0.025% (fatality) and 0.85% (hospitalization).

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Surprisingly, I think you’re closer to hitting the nail on the head on the reopening than others on this thread. I say surprisingly because I think fourmlurker was right - we needed much more stringent, uniform, and coherent lockdown guidance from the government in February/March to really crush this thing. I think the public support could have been there for his proposal of a strict two to three week total lockdown. We missed the boat.

However, he’s got less of a firm grip on the current situation. The effects of the protests still remains to be seen I think, but saving the economy is a minor factor for most people (mostly just the concern of the political class and investor types). Few people look at the present situation and say “well sh*t I personally have to start getting out there to save the economy.” No, people are selfish creatures. After three months, they got bored and their risk preferences changed. The virus by in large didn’t devastate most people’s lives - they look at the news stories of people who were adversely affected by the virus and say “oh that’s sad” and move on. Extreme Republican got it right, people are concerned with their own quality of life - that’s it. They’re now seeking some normalcy. Heck, I stoped by the mall today in Tysons and the thing was packed. I’m not saying they’ve got the right view in this situation but there it is. We have a fleeting existence on this planet and self-interest always outweighs the collective good.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

And would you look at that, Covid-19 cases per day have been increasing rapidly after the protests and reopenings. I warned that things would go bad sometime between June 12-17, looks like as usual, America failed.
Interestingly, my own State is doing surprisingly well considering the region, although I wouldn’t celebrate too quickly, we praised Louisiana weeks ago and now they are seeing rapid rises outside of NoLa.
We won’t defeat the virus until the vast majority of States take proper action for at least three weeks. This could have been avoided had we stayed the hell at home like most countries until it actually got significantly better, but getting a haircut is more important in a lot of States, I guess.
Now we will have a second wave which will destroy our economy far more than any lockdowns in the first wave, good work Del Tachi, ExtremeRep, and all the other “reopeners” on here.

Considering that the protests have been occurring in all fifty states and only states in the South and Mountain West seem to seeing the lion's share of increases, I don't think the increases can be so simply attributed to the protests. Really, the increases are happening overall because of impatience or premature re-openings. People just stopped caring as they continue to put other interests ahead of public safety and the re-openings for the sake of the economy have enabled that. And both of those things combined are a consequence of our country's poor social safety net.

The economy was a portion of it, but I think the bigger factor was that people actually prioritize quality of life a little higher than you do.  Being locked down is a 90%+ reduction in quality of life for most people, and many people are willing to take their chances with a virus with a 0.26% fatality rate and a 2% hospitalization rate (by the CDC's own best estimate) than have that much of a reduction in their quality of life.  I know I am.  For those under 50 (assuming that 50%, rather than 35% of the cases in under 50's are asymptomatic), those numbers are 0.025% (fatality) and 0.85% (hospitalization).

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Surprisingly, I think you’re closer to hitting the nail on the head on the reopening than others on this thread. I say surprisingly because I think fourmlurker was right - we needed much more stringent, uniform, and coherent lockdown guidance from the government in February/March to really crush this thing. I think the public support could have been there for his proposal of a strict two to three week total lockdown. We missed the boat.

However, he’s got less of a firm grip on the current situation. The effects of the protests still remains to be seen I think, but saving the economy is a minor factor for most people (mostly just the concern of the political class and investor types). Few people look at the present situation and say “well sh*t I personally have to start getting out there to save the economy.” No, people are selfish creatures. After three months, they got bored and their risk preferences changed. The virus by in large didn’t devastate most people’s lives - they look at the news stories of people who were adversely affected by the virus and say “oh that’s sad” and move on. Extreme Republican got it right, people are concerned with their own quality of life - that’s it. They’re now seeking some normalcy. Heck, I stoped by the mall today in Tysons and the thing was packed. I’m not saying they’ve got the right view in this situation but there it is. We have a fleeting existence on this planet and self-interest always outweighs the collective good.

Anecdotally, I would have far preferred a 3 week hard lockdown to a 2 month proto-lockdown with maybe 6 more months of "modified semi-normal life".

[Tekken_Guy]

Actually, I think that people got really scared about the economy. A lot of people are afraid a store or restaurant they love will be closed down forever. People fear the company they work for will go out of business.

Quite a lot of people are only concerned about protecting themselves or their families from the virus and don’t care who else dies.

If we had more confidence in our economy coming back afterwards we’d be all in for lockdowns. If people were as worried about bringing the virus home as they are about spreading it around, then everyone would be trying to stay home as much as possible.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/17 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>

6/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,007,449 (+20,274 | Δ Change: ↓39.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 112,469 (+412 | Δ Change: ↓38.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

6/8:

• Cases: 2,026,493 (+19,044 | Δ Change: ↓6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.95%)
• Deaths: 113,055 (+586 | Δ Change: ↑42.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

6/9:

• Cases: 2,045,549 (+19,056 | Δ Change: ↑0.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)
• Deaths: 114,148 (+1,093 | Δ Change: ↑86.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

6/10:

• Cases: 2,066,508 (+20,959 | Δ Change: ↑9.98% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 115,137 (+989 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.87%)

6/11:

• Cases: 2,089,701 (+23,193 | Δ Change: ↑10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 116,034 (+897 | Δ Change: ↓9.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

6/12:

• Cases: 2,116,922 (+27,221 | Δ Change: ↑17.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 116,825 (+791 | Δ Change: ↓11.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/13:

• Cases: 2,142,224 (+25,302 | Δ Change: ↓7.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
• Deaths: 117,527 (+702 | Δ Change: ↓11.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:

• Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17 (Today):

• Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

[gerritcole]

America has checked out on the virus,  maybe if we hit 150-175 K by the end of the summer people will pay attention again

[Dr. Arch]

America has checked out on the virus,  maybe if we hit 150-175 K by the end of the summer people will pay attention again

Unfortunately, that seems to be mostly the case. I will do my best to make sure that I don't check out, and I'll keep the thread going alone if I must.

[Omega21]

America is great at handling stuff like this, albeit only in movies.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

America is great at handling stuff like this, albeit only in movies.

Unfortunately, Trump resembles President Whitmore from Independence Day less than he resembles President Camacho from Idiocracy.

[GP270watch]

 I didn't think we'd get anywhere close to 150k deaths and 200k would be out of the question. This has really been a completely incompetent response.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

3 months into lockdown, California just hit a record high for daily new cases. Big oof.

[wbrocks67]

Things have been going great in PA. Just hope it continues. The Republicans want to impeach Tom Wolf over this, but ... shockingly... looks like.. gasp... he was doing the right thing in taking it slow!

https://twitter.com/CodyCarlsonNews/status/1273338397109731335

[Person Man]

What are the chances at this point that this could be the deadliest pandemic in American History? That record is currently held at 600k with the 1918 Flu.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What are the chances at this point that this could be the deadliest pandemic in American History? That record is currently held at 600k with the 1918 Flu.

Making the assumption that we should have a vaccine by the first half of 2021, and given current case and fatality rates, I think that's extremely unlikely.

[Brittain33]

I feel so fortunate to live in Massachusetts.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Yet another record day for Florida, 3207 new cases reported... Previous high (only 2 days ago) was 2783, which at the time seemed like a shocking increase.

And in other news, Texas yet again reports new record high COVID-19 hospitalizations.



The hits just keep on coming.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Cases nationwide are steady while deaths continue to decrease every week.  No one thought we were going to eradicate the virus.  The idea behind the lockdown was to mimimize the strain on the health care system until we had better testing and treatment.  We now have better testing and treatment.  

We need to manage hotspots where the health care system is close to capacity.  But beyond that, I don’t see how it’s a mistake to continue to open up.  The steady flow of new infections we are seeing, coupled with fewer and fewer deaths, seem like the very definition of “flattening the curve”.  And it’s the way we eventually get to herd immunity with the lowest cost to life and ecconomic hardship (besides deliberately infecting younger people, which seems impossible now).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yet another record day for Florida, 3207 new cases reported... Previous high (only 2 days ago) was 2783, which at the time seemed like a shocking increase.

And in other news, Texas yet again reports new record high COVID-19 hospitalizations.



The hits just keep on coming.

Florida may be the next epicenter.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Cases nationwide are steady while deaths continue to decrease every week.  No one thought we were going to eradicate the virus.  The idea behind the lockdown was to mimimize the strain on the health care system until we had better testing and treatment.  We now have better testing and treatment.  

We need to manage hotspots where the health care system is close to capacity.  But beyond that, I don’t see how it’s a mistake to continue to open up.  The steady flow of new infections we are seeing, coupled with fewer and fewer deaths, seem like the very definition of “flattening the curve”.  And it’s the way we eventually get to herd immunity with the lowest cost to life and ecconomic hardship (besides deliberately infecting younger people, which seems impossible now).

It was a mistake to not get the virus under control to a similar degree as essentially every other developed country (South Korea, Australia, the entirety of Western Europe, etc) and without having adequate public health measures such as testing/contact tracing in place before opening up, because it means that cases are now rising again. Granted, Americans are perhaps so incredibly stupid that this may not ever have been possible in the Failed States of America, at least not with leaders such as Trump attempting to sabotage the process by discouraging sensible low-cost precautions like mask wearing.

The economic response could have been much better managed. There is no reason whatsoever why, for example, FSA unemployment should be so high (it is not in western Europe or elsewhere because they had more sensible employment/social safety net policies to deal with the economic effects of lockdown). There is absolutely 0 reason why anyone in the USA should not have enough to eat, or be at risk of losing their housing etc. The fact that some are is purely and entirely a policy failure, and is in no way necessitated by the pandemic itself. Both the health damage and the economic damage in the Failed States is unique among developed countries in its extent and both the health and the fact that both are as bad as they are is an entirely self-inflicted wound.

As it is, with cases rising we are going to start getting more economic damage, because remember that the economic damage started well before lockdowns were imposed - the economic damage resulted primarily from voluntary changes in behavior across the world. Leading economic indicators such as restaurant reservations are already starting to trend back down in states where virus cases are now surging. It is true there is a short term trade-off between lockdowns and economic activity, but if you go in the direction of opening up the economy too early, that trade-off disappears (and at some point reverses) as the surging virus at a certain point causes many people to once again change their behavior and go into self-lockdown mode or self semi-lockdown mode.