COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[emailking]

I think temperature might matter and UV light certainly does, but if you don't social distance inside climate controlled indoor environments it doesn't matter how hot it is outside.

[gerritcole]

I’ve been seeing packed grocery stores and food pick up spots, only token stickers on the floor saying be 6 ft apart. Society has accepted the toll of the Rona, very unlikely IMO that reinstating restrictions will work again

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1271873376081100802

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Before anyone wonders about the numbers from Louisiana today, it includes 560 cases backlogged from April.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-13/california-coronavirus-surge-tied-to-testing-not-reopening-businesses-officials-say

California's case numbers are actually a function of more testing. The positivity rate and hospitalization numbers are on a downward trend.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Well, Florida is reporting +2,581 cases on Worldometer, compared to its previous high yesterday of 1,902. And what is worse, it is a weekend, cases are usually lower on weekends, right? That is quite a large increase and a very worrying uptrend. Alabama also reported its highest case # so far today.

We will have to wait and see what the other states report later in the day, if the other southern/southwestern states show a similar trend, that will mean serious problems going forward. With each passing day at the moment, we are looking more like Iran.

Remember when there were people saying that the coming of hot weather would make the virus fade away?

Now what kind of absolute moron would ever say something like that?

[KaiserDave]

I don't applaud this, but quarantine fatigue has entirely set in in NYC, people are out, about, oftentimes without masks (though I'd say masks are still in the majority). While it's not advisable from a health standpoint, I can say I'm quite sure it will be impossible to reinstate restrictions on the same scale as March and April. People are out, and they're gonna stay out.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/13 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>

5/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,837,165 (+20,345 | Δ Change: ↓12.65% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 106,190 (+633 | Δ Change: ↓37.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/1:

• Cases: 1,859,323 (+22,158 | Δ Change: ↑8.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.21%)
• Deaths: 106,925 (+735 | Δ Change: ↑16.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)

6/2:

• Cases: 1,881,205 (+21,882 | Δ Change: ↓1.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 108,059 (+1,134 | Δ Change: ↑54.29% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

6/3:

• Cases: 1,901,783 (+20,578 | Δ Change: ↓5.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)
• Deaths: 109,142 (+1,083 | Δ Change: ↓4.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

6/4:

• Cases: 1,924,051 (+22,268 | Δ Change: ↑8.21% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 110,173 (+1,031 | Δ Change: ↓4.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

6/5:

• Cases: 1,953,423 (+29,372 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.53%)
• Deaths: 111,384 (+1,211 | Δ Change: ↑17.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.10%)

6/6:

• Cases: 1,987,175 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↑14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.73%)
• Deaths: 112,057 (+673 | Δ Change: ↓44.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,007,449 (+20,274 | Δ Change: ↓39.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 112,469 (+412 | Δ Change: ↓38.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

6/8:

• Cases: 2,026,493 (+19,044 | Δ Change: ↓6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.95%)
• Deaths: 113,055 (+586 | Δ Change: ↑42.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

6/9:

• Cases: 2,045,549 (+19,056 | Δ Change: ↑0.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)
• Deaths: 114,148 (+1,093 | Δ Change: ↑86.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

6/10:

• Cases: 2,066,508 (+20,959 | Δ Change: ↑9.98% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 115,137 (+989 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.87%)

6/11:

• Cases: 2,089,701 (+23,193 | Δ Change: ↑10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 116,034 (+897 | Δ Change: ↓9.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

6/12 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,116,922 (+27,221 | Δ Change: ↑17.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 116,825 (+791 | Δ Change: ↓11.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/13 (Today):

• Cases: 2,142,224 (+25,302 | Δ Change: ↓7.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
• Deaths: 117,527 (+702 | Δ Change: ↓11.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

[It’s so Joever]

I don't applaud this, but quarantine fatigue has entirely set in in NYC, people are out, about, oftentimes without masks (though I'd say masks are still in the majority). While it's not advisable from a health standpoint, I can say I'm quite sure it will be impossible to reinstate restrictions on the same scale as March and April. People are out, and they're gonna stay out.

While normally I would be outraged at the stupidity of people, it probably won’t make too much of a difference in NYC itself considering how many people already did get infected (assuming a 1% mortality rate which seems reasonable) It’s probably enough to at least slow another outbreak to the point there is time to react. Most other places in the US don’t have this, however.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/BWJones/status/1271981923015856130

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

New York is making the U.S.' coronavirus trends look better than they are

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

2020 is no longer short on manufactured crises. This is all so dumb.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why do all these stories keep using new cases as their central metric?  If you are trying to argue that the virus is an escalating problem, demonstrate it through stats on hospitalizations or deaths.  

A growth in cases without an associated increase in serious health consequences is a good thing, as it just indicates that testing has improved, treatment has improved, the immunity rate had increased, or all of the above.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

2020 is no longer short on manufactured crises. This is all so dumb.

Take it from someone who has had the coronavirus: it's hardly a manufactured crisis.  

If it takes a healthy & athletic 20-something out of commission for almost three weeks, imagine what it does to the 55+ population.  

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Why do all these stories keep using new cases as their central metric?  If you are trying to argue that the virus is an escalating problem, demonstrate it through stats on hospitalizations or deaths.

They keep using new cases but not the percent positive rate, which is way, way down from April.

I am absolutely convinced the media wants more lockdowns and other authoritarian measures, and I think they want it because the major media companies have investments in China, and the Chinese government wants us locked down. I now believe the Chinese government is influencing stories published in the Western media. There's just no other explanation for it.

It's completely contrary to science to use the wrong metric for a pandemic, yet it continues.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Why do all these stories keep using new cases as their central metric?  If you are trying to argue that the virus is an escalating problem, demonstrate it through stats on hospitalizations or deaths.  

A growth in cases without an associated increase in serious health consequences is a good thing, as it just indicates that testing has improved, treatment has improved, the immunity rate had increased, or all of the above.

Ideally we would all do exactly that, look at hospitalizations and deaths rather than simply looking at cases. You are quite right that case #s can be confounded by testing.

But unfortunately, is the data for hospitalizations and deaths are both problematic.

Hospitalizations are problematic as a data point because they are not generally reported across the board by all states, and are not reported consistently/reliably. If hospitalizations were consistently reported, this would likely be the best metric and the one we should focus on more so than cases. However, in southern/southwestern states that do report that data it has seemed to be generally trending up along with their cases.

Deaths are also a problematic indicator for two reasons - first, they are a lagging indicator, generally they are roughly 2-3 weeks behind. And secondly, the quality of care is likely getting better over time, hopefully reducing the fatality rate as the medical system and doctors gain experience with things like plasma therapy, appropriate use of ventilators, and as more studies are completed showing the effectiveness or counterproductiveness of various experimental drugs etc.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Why do all these stories keep using new cases as their central metric?  If you are trying to argue that the virus is an escalating problem, demonstrate it through stats on hospitalizations or deaths.

They keep using new cases but not the percent positive rate, which is way, way down from April.

I am absolutely convinced the media wants more lockdowns and other authoritarian measures, and I think they want it because the major media companies have investments in China, and the Chinese government wants us locked down. I now believe the Chinese government is influencing stories published in the Western media. There's just no other explanation for it.

It's completely contrary to science to use the wrong metric for a pandemic, yet it continues.

The positive rate is another useful indicator, yes, and it avoids some of the problem of case # just looking at testing. And indeed, it is generally down by a lot from earlier.

However, on a national level it seems to have flatlined at this point at about 5%, and possibly may be at the very beginning of trending back up despite increased testing. Which direction the positivity rate goes from here is something we should watch closely - whether it starts to trend back up, remains stable at 5%, or decreases.



And what is also worrisome is that the positivity rate remains high and has apparently been trending *upwards* in key states of concern in the south/southwest. Most worrisome is Arizona, which has an 18.1% positivity rate which has been increasing. But other southern/southwestern states seem to be potentially on that same sort of track.





It should be noted also though that the positivity rate is not without problems - most notably data does not always consistently distinguish overall tests from *people* tested (for people who are tested multiple times, looking at you Florida) and there have also been inconsistencies in whether/how antibody tests have been included.

The overall national #s are potentially a bit misleading to look at, because it is quite clear that things have been getting better in New York (and to a lesser degree in the North/Midwest generally). The problem is with the South/Southwest.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here are some other good graphs regarding the positivity rate. While has trended down and then stabilized at about 5% nationally, it seems to be increasing in Florida and recently also in TX, with California relatively stable but also recently possibly up-trending.

[It’s so Joever]

2020 is no longer short on manufactured crises. This is all so dumb.

Please wear a very tight fitting mask. Preferably one that prevents other people from having to hear you. The halting of disease spread would just be an added benefit.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Insert Everything is fine meme.

https://twitter.com/WPLGLocal10/status/1272185530529308672

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Insert Everything is fine meme.

https://twitter.com/WPLGLocal10/status/1272185530529308672

And to think Sundays are usually a lower-reporting day.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Insert Everything is fine meme.

https://twitter.com/WPLGLocal10/status/1272185530529308672

And to think Sundays are usually a lower-reporting day.

Alabama reported its all-time high # of cases today of +1,014 despite it being a Sunday, and despite the 3 previous days also being all-time highs at the time.

There are other states with lower #s than yesterday and overall I think we are on track for less cases than Saturday, but it seems like the #s for today overall may end up being pretty high for a Sunday. Hopefully we don't start exceeding 30k cases again nationwide over the next week or two on weekdays.

--- edit --- and also the same thing for South Carolina, 4 days in a row of new record highs for both SC and AL, and Texas is once again reporting record hospitalizations. As more data comes in the trend in the south/southwest seems to be getting more clear and more clearly bad.

[emailking]

I think case #'s matter. Like Penn said it was a huge deal for her, even though she wasn't hospitalized.

[GP270watch]

 People are not taking it seriously anymore. I'm still making very limited shopping trips and now besides the staff, I am one of maybe five people wearing a mask at the grocery store. Majority of essential workers in all stores I see are still wearing mask. Don't know if it's company policy or self-interest but it's good to see.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Well, it took 159 years, but it has finally happened. The South is rising again.

Not rising in rebellion though, but in COVID-19 cases.