COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1271193479364911105

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1271193479364911105

I've found Nate's week-over-week comparisons are frequently deceiving because he uses a weird 24-hour window that seems to include an inconsistent number of states.   Worldometers is at 897 deaths today (which will go up slightly before their day closes (which is very close to Nate's number), but 1032 deaths one week ago (6/4).  So by their metric, we should see a decent week-over-week decline.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1271193479364911105

I've found Nate's week-over-week comparisons are frequently deceiving because he uses a weird 24-hour window that seems to include an inconsistent number of states.   Worldometers is at 897 deaths today (which will go up slightly before their day closes (which is very close to Nate's number), but 1032 deaths one week ago (6/4).  So by their metric, we should see a decent week-over-week decline.

We Trust In Arch™ 

[Calthrina950]

One thing that I haven't commented on, but which has bothered me for a long time. For the past two months, I have had to hear an ambulance zoom by my house multiple times a day (and at my job as well). It's a daily reminder to me of what is going on. In fact, I hear one right now as I type this post. The constant blare of the ambulance, day after day, almost makes me lose my sanity.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One thing that I haven't commented on, but which has bothered me for a long time. For the past two months, I have had to hear an ambulance zoom by my house multiple times a day (and at my job as well). It's a daily reminder to me of what is going on. In fact, I hear one right now as I type this post. The constant blare of the ambulance, day after day, almost makes me lose my sanity.

That's an odd coincidence.  I opened this to post that I've also heard an increase in the number of ambulances going down the highway near my neighborhood...and immediately heard one.

[It’s so Joever]

One thing that I haven't commented on, but which has bothered me for a long time. For the past two months, I have had to hear an ambulance zoom by my house multiple times a day (and at my job as well). It's a daily reminder to me of what is going on. In fact, I hear one right now as I type this post. The constant blare of the ambulance, day after day, almost makes me lose my sanity.

I thought Covid hospitalizations in Colorado were decreasing (not that I don’t believe you) is CO Springs looking a lot different than the Denver metro area?

[Calthrina950]

One thing that I haven't commented on, but which has bothered me for a long time. For the past two months, I have had to hear an ambulance zoom by my house multiple times a day (and at my job as well). It's a daily reminder to me of what is going on. In fact, I hear one right now as I type this post. The constant blare of the ambulance, day after day, almost makes me lose my sanity.

I thought Covid hospitalizations in Colorado were decreasing (not that I don’t believe you) is CO Springs looking a lot different than the Denver metro area?

As I mentioned in the post, I've been hearing ambulances near-constantly every day for over two months now, so it's not something new that emerged within the past few weeks. It may just be a coincidence, since the road next to my house, on which the ambulances pass, does lead to a hospital.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/Kevinliptakcnn/status/1271191270434758656

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/barbmcquade/status/1271225360638599168

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/11 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>

5/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,837,165 (+20,345 | Δ Change: ↓12.65% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 106,190 (+633 | Δ Change: ↓37.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/1:

• Cases: 1,859,323 (+22,158 | Δ Change: ↑8.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.21%)
• Deaths: 106,925 (+735 | Δ Change: ↑16.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)

6/2:

• Cases: 1,881,205 (+21,882 | Δ Change: ↓1.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 108,059 (+1,134 | Δ Change: ↑54.29% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

6/3:

• Cases: 1,901,783 (+20,578 | Δ Change: ↓5.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)
• Deaths: 109,142 (+1,083 | Δ Change: ↓4.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

6/4:

• Cases: 1,924,051 (+22,268 | Δ Change: ↑8.21% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 110,173 (+1,031 | Δ Change: ↓4.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

6/5:

• Cases: 1,953,423 (+29,372 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.53%)
• Deaths: 111,384 (+1,211 | Δ Change: ↑17.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.10%)

6/6:

• Cases: 1,987,175 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↑14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.73%)
• Deaths: 112,057 (+673 | Δ Change: ↓44.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,007,449 (+20,274 | Δ Change: ↓39.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 112,469 (+412 | Δ Change: ↓38.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

6/8:

• Cases: 2,026,493 (+19,044 | Δ Change: ↓6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.95%)
• Deaths: 113,055 (+586 | Δ Change: ↑42.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

6/9:

• Cases: 2,045,549 (+19,056 | Δ Change: ↑0.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)
• Deaths: 114,148 (+1,093 | Δ Change: ↑86.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

6/10 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,066,508 (+20,959 | Δ Change: ↑9.98% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 115,137 (+989 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.87%)

6/11 (Today):

• Cases: 2,089,701 (+23,193 | Δ Change: ↑10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 116,034 (+897 | Δ Change: ↓9.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I gotta hand it to New York, New Jersey, Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, Massachusetts, D.C., Michigan, Pennsylvania, and perhaps a few others for somehow bringing the case count so low.

So why are California and Arizona so bad now?

[emailking]

Death counts seem to be down this week, that's good at least

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1271424867959812096

[GP270watch]

 The Federal response to this crisis has been horrifying.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I gotta hand it to New York, New Jersey, Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, Massachusetts, D.C., Michigan, Pennsylvania, and perhaps a few others for somehow bringing the case count so low.

So why are California and Arizona so bad now?

Seems like reopening is going worse in those states where people spend most of their time in air conditioned spaces.

Anybody with a brain could have seen this coming based on our understanding of transmission.

We had a lot of brain-dead posts in this thread about how the virus would disappear in summer without understanding why summer is bad for the virus. It's not because the virus has some sort of calendar. It's because transmission happens more indoors with air conditioning systems, and people will spend more time outside during the summer. What happens in late spring? Weather gets nice and people go outside. What happens in the Sun Belt states in mid-summer? It gets hot so people go back inside. The result was predictable, and we'll see these further north once we get to July/August and places experience temperature regularly above 80.

The "summer makes the virus go away" discourse was bad because it meant people convinced themselves that they didn't need masks. You might not need masks outside but you obviously need them inside. The whole point of indoor climate control is to separate the climate indoors from the climate outdoors... the insides of buildings are designed to make transmission easier during the summer.

It's just damning that apparently nobody anticipated this when they were talking about reopening. I predicted exactly this in one of these threads about a month ago (too lazy to dig up the post), and I am just a random internet guy.

[emailking]

Ok Nate's splitting hairs. Cases aren't very likely to go to 0 at any point this year, so you could always claim any increase is part of the first wave. If we get another hump, and he doesn't want to call it a spike, what do you call that? Just a hump? These are all informal terms, I don't see what it matters really.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Kevinliptakcnn/status/1271191270434758656

Mr. Trump only pays lawsuits if you punch protesters in the face.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/paulaEdwyer/status/1271433212615671810

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/paulaEdwyer/status/1271433212615671810

Actually it is in the parking lot (and next to the Astrodome). It seems like if Bloomberg needed a stock photo, they could have got a picture of a cowboy.



When it was built, it was revealed that there were outrageous salaries associated with the temporary structures (I'm not sure how they would hold up in a hurricane or a flooding event). There were two public relations specialists at $2000 (sic) per day, who were contractually forbidden from communicating with the press.

[GeorgiaModerate]

(snip)
When it was built, it was revealed that there were outrageous salaries associated with the temporary structures (I'm not sure how they would hold up in a hurricane or a flooding event). There were two public relations specialists at $2000 (sic) per day, who were contractually forbidden from communicating with the press.

Isn't it the job of PR specialists to communicate with the press?  This seems like a new low in bureaucratic idiocy.

[Grassroots]

The democrats have no right to force stay at home orders down our throats for the resurgence that they caused by supporting the protests and riots.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The democrats have no right to force stay at home orders down our throats for the resurgence that they caused by supporting the protests and riots.

The protests were far from the only, or the first, source of people getting back out and spreading the virus.  Remember all those pictures of crowded gatherings from Memorial Day weekend?  You can't blame one group without blaming all.

You had become a fairly interesting poster for a while, but you're getting perilously close to Ignore territory.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1271424867959812096

Could we have a situation where things just compound eventually?

[It’s so Joever]

The democrats have no right to force stay at home orders down our throats for the resurgence that they caused by supporting the protests and riots.

We still have a moral obligation to protect our country, even if both parties are trying to brush it under the rug for their elections/narratives. That means staying at home, and making sure to condemn the protestors (bioterrorists)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The democrats have no right to force stay at home orders down our throats for the resurgence that they caused by supporting the protests and riots.

Really going off the rails as of late, Grassy.