2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[lfromnj]

https://redistricting.maps.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=2c92665fc1d14fc2becb3030e23a4595
MAP OUT

Brings back the original FL 20th. Not sure how he is going to justify that as not a racial gerrymander.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0f7545a4-2b49-4900-906b-22ad6f431b25
https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1514342168797790212

DRA version.

[GALeftist]

Looks race neutral to me lol

[_.]

-SNIP-

Honestly, I like the Miami area on this map more than most of the legislature proposals

[patzer]

Potentially vulnerable R seats on that map:

2nd: Trump+11.9 in 2016, Trump+11.1 in 2020
4th: Trump+10.4 in 2016, Trump+6.7 in 2020
7th: Trump+7.7 in 2016, Trump+5.5 in 2020
11th: Trump+15.0 in 2016, Trump+10.8 in 2020
13th: Trump+7.8 in 2016, Trump+6.7 in 2020
15th: Trump+3.9 in 2016, Trump+3.2 in 2020
16th: Trump+12.5 in 2016, Trump+8.8 in 2020
21st: Trump+10.2 in 2016, Trump+9.4 in 2020
26th: Trump+3.5 in 2016, Trump+18.3 in 2020 (only vulnerable if Hispanic voters return to the Democrats)
27th: Clinton+17.2 in 2016, Trump+0.3 in 2020
28th: Clinton+15.5 in 2016, Trump+6.3 in 2020

In a favourable midterm for the Dems, I'd guess that the 4th, 7th, 13th, 15th, 16th, 27th, and 28th fall.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Will the legislature accept this?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MaryEllenKlas/status/1514344940746297356

This is the map then.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hopefully SCOF makes them change the Jacksonville seat

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

You have to wonder if the legislature was in kahoots with DeSantis all along and the other maps were just smoke and mirrors

[lfromnj]

You have to wonder if the legislature was in kahoots with DeSantis all along and the other maps were just smoke and mirrors

The one thing that gives me a pause is the rumors about the staff, along with the final house map. If they were in total smoke and mirrors, they would have just kept the original FL 5th. That version of a Duval only seat showed there was a clear option to preserve a degree of black influence. For example a Federal court should be looking at the US constitution first but try to do the least damage within the limits of state law. That is why my guess is that a Federal court probably picks something like the house map if this went to court.

[Torie]

You have to wonder if the legislature was in kahoots with DeSantis all along and the other maps were just smoke and mirrors

The one thing that gives me a pause is the rumors about the staff, along with the final house map. If they were in total smoke and mirrors, they would have just kept the original FL 5th. That version of a Duval only seat showed there was a clear option to preserve a degree of black influence. For example a Federal court should be looking at the US constitution first but try to do the least damage within the limits of state law. That is why my guess is that a Federal court probably picks something like the house map if this went to court.

What language exactly in what law makes the DeSantis map legally vulnerable in your opinion? 

[lfromnj]

You have to wonder if the legislature was in kahoots with DeSantis all along and the other maps were just smoke and mirrors

The one thing that gives me a pause is the rumors about the staff, along with the final house map. If they were in total smoke and mirrors, they would have just kept the original FL 5th. That version of a Duval only seat showed there was a clear option to preserve a degree of black influence. For example a Federal court should be looking at the US constitution first but try to do the least damage within the limits of state law. That is why my guess is that a Federal court probably picks something like the house map if this went to court.

What language exactly in what law makes the DeSantis map legally vulnerable in your opinion? 

The FDA as its a partisan gerrymander?

[lfromnj]

Now the narrative on the St.Pete tampa district has gone from packing black voters to cracking them because it doesn't keep the St.Pete black community whole. I don't know why people can't just call it a partisan gerrymander instead of being a racial one.

[Torie]

You have to wonder if the legislature was in kahoots with DeSantis all along and the other maps were just smoke and mirrors

The one thing that gives me a pause is the rumors about the staff, along with the final house map. If they were in total smoke and mirrors, they would have just kept the original FL 5th. That version of a Duval only seat showed there was a clear option to preserve a degree of black influence. For example a Federal court should be looking at the US constitution first but try to do the least damage within the limits of state law. That is why my guess is that a Federal court probably picks something like the house map if this went to court.

What language exactly in what law makes the DeSantis map legally vulnerable in your opinion? 

The FDA as its a partisan gerrymander?

Is that the only line of attack in your view with traction in a non partisan court of law?

[lfromnj]

You have to wonder if the legislature was in kahoots with DeSantis all along and the other maps were just smoke and mirrors

The one thing that gives me a pause is the rumors about the staff, along with the final house map. If they were in total smoke and mirrors, they would have just kept the original FL 5th. That version of a Duval only seat showed there was a clear option to preserve a degree of black influence. For example a Federal court should be looking at the US constitution first but try to do the least damage within the limits of state law. That is why my guess is that a Federal court probably picks something like the house map if this went to court.

What language exactly in what law makes the DeSantis map legally vulnerable in your opinion?  

The FDA as its a partisan gerrymander?

Is that the only line of attack in your view with traction in a non partisan court of law?

 I mean from a partisan gerrymander standpoint Orlando/Jacksonville also have arguments although not to the point of beyond reasonable doubt. After all the St.Johns river is an easy argument for Jax while Orlando just has the 7th placed with Deltona instead of Winter Park and places Lake county with the entire Lake region in West Orange County. There's still a chance the court just ignores the law like the Ohio R justices did with regards to Cincinatti.

What would you strike down if you were such an arbitrator of the FDA?



edit: Going further regarding Orlando. Putting a Seminole Volusia seat is pretty justifiable. However DeSantis's map does the sneaky thing of going further into deep red Volusia instead of taking Deland. DeLand pretty naturally follows as an Orlando exurb instead of the more coastal portion of Volusia. If Democrats are going the partisanship route on this district this might be a point worth bringing up.

[lfromnj]

And there goes the house for the next 10 years.

This country is so ed

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1514351540945002498

calm yourself.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So why didn't the Democrats vote to override? Protecting Al Lawson clearly wasn't a reason.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So why didn't the Democrats vote to override? Protecting Al Lawson clearly wasn't a reason.

FL house dems were really dumb and opposed the less aggressive maps but the reality is this was all political theater. They always wanted a more aggressive map

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So why didn't the Democrats vote to override? Protecting Al Lawson clearly wasn't a reason.

FL house dems were really dumb and opposed the less aggressive maps but the reality is this was all political theater. They always wanted a more aggressive map

Why would Florida House Democrats prefer that map?

[lfromnj]

So why didn't the Democrats vote to override? Protecting Al Lawson clearly wasn't a reason.

FL house dems were really dumb and opposed the less aggressive maps but the reality is this was all political theater. They always wanted a more aggressive map

Why would Florida House Democrats prefer that map?

He's saying FL Republicans just did a bunch of theater and always wanted an aggressive map. I don't know, it is a possible theory but the house map that "compromised"* over FL 5th makes me think twice as it really weakens the legal argument and DeSantis had to do some weird stuff to get around that. Originally his argument that FL 5th was illegal was pretty solid. However when the house drew the Duval only FL 5th, it really can't be illegal by any argument except maybe with Clarence Thomas, Sure it was a bit donuty but it was still plenty compact and could be reasonably drawn for a reason outside of race. So because of that DeSantis made up some stupid legal argument to veto the map which is really shaky IMO.

* Note it was pretty sad to see most of the media saying that the house caved into the DeSantis by redrawing FL 5th like that. It absolutely was not a cave in, and infact doing that move arguably slightly hurt Republicans. The reason they originally redrew it was because of actual reasonable fear that DeSantis's theory was correct.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah I agree with what most folks here have said so far.

The issue with this map isn't that it terribly violates COIs. For what it's worth compared to a lot of other maps, it's relatively clean and COIs get into highly subjective area. This would probably be the weakest argument in court.

The second argument would be partisanship. This is where things become a bit more iffy. The median seat test of the median seat usually being 5ish points to the right of the state isn't great for a state with 28 districts but isn't terrible either. However, the median seat test alone isn't a whole lot. The efficiency gap is def pretty favoable to Rs. However, partisan symmetry isn't that bad outside of 2020 Pres considering most Dems at least win FL-27 and FL-28 narrowly while doing worse in many of the "suburban" lean R seats like FL-15 and FL-07. 2020 is really the only election where the partisan symmetry is really bad.

The third and strongest argument is what the map does with black voters and the general hypocracy. If one wants to make the argument the FL-05 snake should be eliminated, then why was a likely black functioning based within Duval created? Furthermore, why was FL-20 kept as is rather than becoming Ft Lauderdale based? It's just as much of a racial gerrymander as FL-05 if you're arguing FL-05 is illegal. Furthermore, why was the black community within Orlando split when FL-10 was never a problem in the first place? Also wouldn't the new FL-14 crossing the bay go against this ideology of prioritizing COIs and compactness above minority representation. This is the hypocrisy the GOP will have to defend and so we'll see how they do.

Also just gotta say compared to a lot of GOP gerries, DeSantis is really betting that current coalitions don't change much and/or that the GOP will continue to improve in Florida. That's quite a lot of Trump < 10 districts, all of which are pretty unique. Still a net benefit to the GOP but still slightly less than maximal.

[lfromnj]

Yeah I agree with what most folks here have said so far.

The issue with this map isn't that it terribly violates COIs. For what it's worth compared to a lot of other maps, it's relatively clean and COIs get into highly subjective area. This would probably be the weakest argument in court.

The second argument would be partisanship. This is where things become a bit more iffy. The median seat test of the median seat usually being 5ish points to the right of the state isn't great for a state with 28 districts but isn't terrible either. However, the median seat test alone isn't a whole lot. The efficiency gap is def pretty favoable to Rs. However, partisan symmetry isn't that bad outside of 2020 Pres considering most Dems at least win FL-27 and FL-28 narrowly while doing worse in many of the "suburban" lean R seats like FL-15 and FL-07. 2020 is really the only election where the partisan symmetry is really bad.

The third and strongest argument is what the map does with black voters and the general hypocracy. If one wants to make the argument the FL-05 snake should be eliminated, then why was a likely black functioning based within Duval created? Furthermore, why was FL-20 kept as is rather than becoming Ft Lauderdale based? It's just as much of a racial gerrymander as FL-05 if you're arguing FL-05 is illegal. Furthermore, why was the black community within Orlando split when FL-10 was never a problem in the first place? Also wouldn't the new FL-14 crossing the bay go against this ideology of prioritizing COIs and compactness above minority representation. This is the hypocrisy the GOP will have to defend and so we'll see how they do.

Also just gotta say compared to a lot of GOP gerries, DeSantis is really betting that current coalitions don't change much and/or that the GOP will continue to improve in Florida. That's quite a lot of Trump < 10 districts, all of which are pretty unique. Still a net benefit to the GOP but still slightly less than maximal.

I still think FL 20th is quite bad and should have been chopped to Broward only FWIW although I do think Palm Beach AA's and Broward AA's are decently close enough. After all South Florida is just one giant super metro.  It's still bad although closer to IL 4th I guess? . Infact FL Rs could have done what IL Dems did. It's still going to be fun to see how DeSantis explains that away. Really no logic behind it in the end.

Also One thing to note is the current map in Orlando for FL 10th is 28.5% black while the new one is 28.3% black. Really hard to argue this is splitting the Orlando black community .

And yes there isn't really much justification to crossing the bay. It's clearly the ringer for unfair partisan advantage. To be fair the way it looks is actually fairly compact to a normie but its obviously a gerrymander.  The best argument I have for splitting St.Petersburg off is that Pinellas county outside of St.Pete is a fairly uniform area of densely populated suburbia and St.Pete is the odd area of the county. This actually is true but the idea of crossing the bay is lol. It definetely is just a hope that the court lets it slide similar to how Oregon Dems crossed the Cascades by arguing that Bend is different from the rest of the East.

Overall you are correct in that the map although very aggressive is actually somewhat similar to what Nevada D's did. They maximized the ceiling/floor in a good/neutral year but didn't max out the gerrymander such as by going all the way to Reno which makes it riskier in a bad year.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah I agree with what most folks here have said so far.

The issue with this map isn't that it terribly violates COIs. For what it's worth compared to a lot of other maps, it's relatively clean and COIs get into highly subjective area. This would probably be the weakest argument in court.

The second argument would be partisanship. This is where things become a bit more iffy. The median seat test of the median seat usually being 5ish points to the right of the state isn't great for a state with 28 districts but isn't terrible either. However, the median seat test alone isn't a whole lot. The efficiency gap is def pretty favoable to Rs. However, partisan symmetry isn't that bad outside of 2020 Pres considering most Dems at least win FL-27 and FL-28 narrowly while doing worse in many of the "suburban" lean R seats like FL-15 and FL-07. 2020 is really the only election where the partisan symmetry is really bad.

The third and strongest argument is what the map does with black voters and the general hypocracy. If one wants to make the argument the FL-05 snake should be eliminated, then why was a likely black functioning based within Duval created? Furthermore, why was FL-20 kept as is rather than becoming Ft Lauderdale based? It's just as much of a racial gerrymander as FL-05 if you're arguing FL-05 is illegal. Furthermore, why was the black community within Orlando split when FL-10 was never a problem in the first place? Also wouldn't the new FL-14 crossing the bay go against this ideology of prioritizing COIs and compactness above minority representation. This is the hypocrisy the GOP will have to defend and so we'll see how they do.

Also just gotta say compared to a lot of GOP gerries, DeSantis is really betting that current coalitions don't change much and/or that the GOP will continue to improve in Florida. That's quite a lot of Trump < 10 districts, all of which are pretty unique. Still a net benefit to the GOP but still slightly less than maximal.

I still think FL 20th is quite bad and should have been chopped to Broward only FWIW although I do think Palm Beach AA's and Broward AA's are decently close enough. After all South Florida is just one giant super metro.  It's still bad although closer to IL 4th I guess? . Infact FL Rs could have done what IL Dems did. It's still going to be fun to see how DeSantis explains that away. Really no logic behind it in the end.

Also One thing to note is the current map in Orlando for FL 10th is 28.5% black while the new one is 28.3% black. Really hard to argue this is splitting the Orlando black community .

And yes there isn't really much justification to crossing the bay. It's clearly the ringer for unfair partisan advantage. To be fair the way it looks is actually fairly compact to a normie but its obviously a gerrymander.  The best argument I have for splitting St.Petersburg off is that Pinellas county outside of St.Pete is a fairly uniform area of densely populated suburbia and St.Pete is the odd area of the county. This actually is true but the idea of crossing the bay is lol. It definetely is just a hope that the court lets it slide similar to how Oregon Dems crossed the Cascades by arguing that Bend is different from the rest of the East.

Overall you are correct in that the map although very aggressive is actually somewhat similar to what Nevada D's did. They maximized the ceiling/floor in a good/neutral year but didn't max out the gerrymander such as by going all the way to Reno which makes it riskier in a bad year.

Ye pretty much agree with your entire post. St. Peters def has a different vibe than the rest of Pinellas and that can be backed up racially and politically but crossing the bay is one of the 10 sins of redistricting (alongside splitting Bucks and having Minneapolis and St. Paul in one, and yes, crossing the cascades).

As for FL-10, I'd make the argument the black population should naturally increase given FL-10 had a 26% growth and is overpopulated by 14%. That may not seem like a lot, but the fact the black population stayed basically the same shows how DeSantis's map shaves off both some of the white and black communities in the district.

[lfromnj]

Yeah I agree with what most folks here have said so far.

The issue with this map isn't that it terribly violates COIs. For what it's worth compared to a lot of other maps, it's relatively clean and COIs get into highly subjective area. This would probably be the weakest argument in court.

The second argument would be partisanship. This is where things become a bit more iffy. The median seat test of the median seat usually being 5ish points to the right of the state isn't great for a state with 28 districts but isn't terrible either. However, the median seat test alone isn't a whole lot. The efficiency gap is def pretty favoable to Rs. However, partisan symmetry isn't that bad outside of 2020 Pres considering most Dems at least win FL-27 and FL-28 narrowly while doing worse in many of the "suburban" lean R seats like FL-15 and FL-07. 2020 is really the only election where the partisan symmetry is really bad.

The third and strongest argument is what the map does with black voters and the general hypocracy. If one wants to make the argument the FL-05 snake should be eliminated, then why was a likely black functioning based within Duval created? Furthermore, why was FL-20 kept as is rather than becoming Ft Lauderdale based? It's just as much of a racial gerrymander as FL-05 if you're arguing FL-05 is illegal. Furthermore, why was the black community within Orlando split when FL-10 was never a problem in the first place? Also wouldn't the new FL-14 crossing the bay go against this ideology of prioritizing COIs and compactness above minority representation. This is the hypocrisy the GOP will have to defend and so we'll see how they do.

Also just gotta say compared to a lot of GOP gerries, DeSantis is really betting that current coalitions don't change much and/or that the GOP will continue to improve in Florida. That's quite a lot of Trump < 10 districts, all of which are pretty unique. Still a net benefit to the GOP but still slightly less than maximal.

I still think FL 20th is quite bad and should have been chopped to Broward only FWIW although I do think Palm Beach AA's and Broward AA's are decently close enough. After all South Florida is just one giant super metro.  It's still bad although closer to IL 4th I guess? . Infact FL Rs could have done what IL Dems did. It's still going to be fun to see how DeSantis explains that away. Really no logic behind it in the end.

Also One thing to note is the current map in Orlando for FL 10th is 28.5% black while the new one is 28.3% black. Really hard to argue this is splitting the Orlando black community .

And yes there isn't really much justification to crossing the bay. It's clearly the ringer for unfair partisan advantage. To be fair the way it looks is actually fairly compact to a normie but its obviously a gerrymander.  The best argument I have for splitting St.Petersburg off is that Pinellas county outside of St.Pete is a fairly uniform area of densely populated suburbia and St.Pete is the odd area of the county. This actually is true but the idea of crossing the bay is lol. It definetely is just a hope that the court lets it slide similar to how Oregon Dems crossed the Cascades by arguing that Bend is different from the rest of the East.

Overall you are correct in that the map although very aggressive is actually somewhat similar to what Nevada D's did. They maximized the ceiling/floor in a good/neutral year but didn't max out the gerrymander such as by going all the way to Reno which makes it riskier in a bad year.

Ye pretty much agree with your entire post. St. Peters def has a different vibe than the rest of Pinellas and that can be backed up racially and politically but crossing the bay is one of the 10 sins of redistricting (alongside splitting Bucks and having Minneapolis and St. Paul in one, and yes, crossing the cascades).

As for FL-10, I'd make the argument the black population should naturally increase given FL-10 had a 26% growth and is overpopulated by 14%. That may not seem like a lot, but the fact the black population stayed basically the same shows how DeSantis's map shaves off both some of the white and black communities in the district.

IIRC the original senate proposal had it like 30%. In the end this is extremely easy to argue against in court. It doesn't reduce the percentage from the current district and the non partisan argument is that the western portion of the county actually goes quite well with Lake County while this creates a district more based in the central part of Orange County.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah I agree with what most folks here have said so far.

The issue with this map isn't that it terribly violates COIs. For what it's worth compared to a lot of other maps, it's relatively clean and COIs get into highly subjective area. This would probably be the weakest argument in court.

The second argument would be partisanship. This is where things become a bit more iffy. The median seat test of the median seat usually being 5ish points to the right of the state isn't great for a state with 28 districts but isn't terrible either. However, the median seat test alone isn't a whole lot. The efficiency gap is def pretty favoable to Rs. However, partisan symmetry isn't that bad outside of 2020 Pres considering most Dems at least win FL-27 and FL-28 narrowly while doing worse in many of the "suburban" lean R seats like FL-15 and FL-07. 2020 is really the only election where the partisan symmetry is really bad.

The third and strongest argument is what the map does with black voters and the general hypocracy. If one wants to make the argument the FL-05 snake should be eliminated, then why was a likely black functioning based within Duval created? Furthermore, why was FL-20 kept as is rather than becoming Ft Lauderdale based? It's just as much of a racial gerrymander as FL-05 if you're arguing FL-05 is illegal. Furthermore, why was the black community within Orlando split when FL-10 was never a problem in the first place? Also wouldn't the new FL-14 crossing the bay go against this ideology of prioritizing COIs and compactness above minority representation. This is the hypocrisy the GOP will have to defend and so we'll see how they do.

Also just gotta say compared to a lot of GOP gerries, DeSantis is really betting that current coalitions don't change much and/or that the GOP will continue to improve in Florida. That's quite a lot of Trump < 10 districts, all of which are pretty unique. Still a net benefit to the GOP but still slightly less than maximal.

I still think FL 20th is quite bad and should have been chopped to Broward only FWIW although I do think Palm Beach AA's and Broward AA's are decently close enough. After all South Florida is just one giant super metro.  It's still bad although closer to IL 4th I guess? . Infact FL Rs could have done what IL Dems did. It's still going to be fun to see how DeSantis explains that away. Really no logic behind it in the end.

Also One thing to note is the current map in Orlando for FL 10th is 28.5% black while the new one is 28.3% black. Really hard to argue this is splitting the Orlando black community .

And yes there isn't really much justification to crossing the bay. It's clearly the ringer for unfair partisan advantage. To be fair the way it looks is actually fairly compact to a normie but its obviously a gerrymander.  The best argument I have for splitting St.Petersburg off is that Pinellas county outside of St.Pete is a fairly uniform area of densely populated suburbia and St.Pete is the odd area of the county. This actually is true but the idea of crossing the bay is lol. It definetely is just a hope that the court lets it slide similar to how Oregon Dems crossed the Cascades by arguing that Bend is different from the rest of the East.

Overall you are correct in that the map although very aggressive is actually somewhat similar to what Nevada D's did. They maximized the ceiling/floor in a good/neutral year but didn't max out the gerrymander such as by going all the way to Reno which makes it riskier in a bad year.

Ye pretty much agree with your entire post. St. Peters def has a different vibe than the rest of Pinellas and that can be backed up racially and politically but crossing the bay is one of the 10 sins of redistricting (alongside splitting Bucks and having Minneapolis and St. Paul in one, and yes, crossing the cascades).

As for FL-10, I'd make the argument the black population should naturally increase given FL-10 had a 26% growth and is overpopulated by 14%. That may not seem like a lot, but the fact the black population stayed basically the same shows how DeSantis's map shaves off both some of the white and black communities in the district.

IIRC the original senate proposal had it like 30%. In the end this is extremely easy to argue against in court.

30 is about the highest it can realistically go froma  topline perspective unless you reach up into Sanford, but DeSantis's map knocks it out of a plurality in a Dem primary which is also important. A 30% black seat that's a D pack is very different than a 30% black seat with a lot of white Rs.

[lfromnj]

Yeah I agree with what most folks here have said so far.

The issue with this map isn't that it terribly violates COIs. For what it's worth compared to a lot of other maps, it's relatively clean and COIs get into highly subjective area. This would probably be the weakest argument in court.

The second argument would be partisanship. This is where things become a bit more iffy. The median seat test of the median seat usually being 5ish points to the right of the state isn't great for a state with 28 districts but isn't terrible either. However, the median seat test alone isn't a whole lot. The efficiency gap is def pretty favoable to Rs. However, partisan symmetry isn't that bad outside of 2020 Pres considering most Dems at least win FL-27 and FL-28 narrowly while doing worse in many of the "suburban" lean R seats like FL-15 and FL-07. 2020 is really the only election where the partisan symmetry is really bad.

The third and strongest argument is what the map does with black voters and the general hypocracy. If one wants to make the argument the FL-05 snake should be eliminated, then why was a likely black functioning based within Duval created? Furthermore, why was FL-20 kept as is rather than becoming Ft Lauderdale based? It's just as much of a racial gerrymander as FL-05 if you're arguing FL-05 is illegal. Furthermore, why was the black community within Orlando split when FL-10 was never a problem in the first place? Also wouldn't the new FL-14 crossing the bay go against this ideology of prioritizing COIs and compactness above minority representation. This is the hypocrisy the GOP will have to defend and so we'll see how they do.

Also just gotta say compared to a lot of GOP gerries, DeSantis is really betting that current coalitions don't change much and/or that the GOP will continue to improve in Florida. That's quite a lot of Trump < 10 districts, all of which are pretty unique. Still a net benefit to the GOP but still slightly less than maximal.

I still think FL 20th is quite bad and should have been chopped to Broward only FWIW although I do think Palm Beach AA's and Broward AA's are decently close enough. After all South Florida is just one giant super metro.  It's still bad although closer to IL 4th I guess? . Infact FL Rs could have done what IL Dems did. It's still going to be fun to see how DeSantis explains that away. Really no logic behind it in the end.

Also One thing to note is the current map in Orlando for FL 10th is 28.5% black while the new one is 28.3% black. Really hard to argue this is splitting the Orlando black community .

And yes there isn't really much justification to crossing the bay. It's clearly the ringer for unfair partisan advantage. To be fair the way it looks is actually fairly compact to a normie but its obviously a gerrymander.  The best argument I have for splitting St.Petersburg off is that Pinellas county outside of St.Pete is a fairly uniform area of densely populated suburbia and St.Pete is the odd area of the county. This actually is true but the idea of crossing the bay is lol. It definetely is just a hope that the court lets it slide similar to how Oregon Dems crossed the Cascades by arguing that Bend is different from the rest of the East.

Overall you are correct in that the map although very aggressive is actually somewhat similar to what Nevada D's did. They maximized the ceiling/floor in a good/neutral year but didn't max out the gerrymander such as by going all the way to Reno which makes it riskier in a bad year.

Ye pretty much agree with your entire post. St. Peters def has a different vibe than the rest of Pinellas and that can be backed up racially and politically but crossing the bay is one of the 10 sins of redistricting (alongside splitting Bucks and having Minneapolis and St. Paul in one, and yes, crossing the cascades).

As for FL-10, I'd make the argument the black population should naturally increase given FL-10 had a 26% growth and is overpopulated by 14%. That may not seem like a lot, but the fact the black population stayed basically the same shows how DeSantis's map shaves off both some of the white and black communities in the district.

IIRC the original senate proposal had it like 30%. In the end this is extremely easy to argue against in court.

30 is about the highest it can realistically go froma  topline perspective unless you reach up into Sanford, but DeSantis's map knocks it out of a plurality in a Dem primary which is also important. A 30% black seat that's a D pack is very different than a 30% black seat with a lot of white Rs.

Yes the primary argument is there but in the end , it shouldn't really be a largely debated argument in court. 28.5 to 28.3% is going to be the key statistic and that will be the end of that. Note if you actually want to complain about Orlando I would recommend reading above and seeing the sneaky move DeSantis did regarding some townships in Volusia.