2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

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I tried my hand at a fair map of Florida.

I don't care about incumbents.



The partisan colors on the map above refer to 2018 Gubernatorial Election Data, and the map was made with 2018 U.S. Census Data. The population deviation is 0.71%.

There are numerous county splits because I care deeply about population deviation and compactness.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.

Partisan Breakdown by Election

2008 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 15D to 14R

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 18R to 11D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 15R to 14D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 15R to 14D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 15R to 14D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 18R to 11D


2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida (rough estimate): 17R to 12D

• FL-26, the Hialeah and Northwest Miami-Dade District flips to Trump 2020 (Clinton won there by 24.8% and Gillum won by 10.8%)
• FL-21, which includes North Palm Beach County, Martin County, and parts of Port St. Lucie flips to Trump 2020 (Trump 2016 won by 2.6% and Gillum won by 0.1%)
• I don't think FL-29 would flip (it includes Homestead, Key West, and covers the bottom part of Florida in general), but it could get a lot closer.

I'd like to think I made it very proportional.


Opinions? (please give some, I'd love ideas on how to improve the Orlando area) This will be my first map, I'll try out a few other combinations.

This map was made with a South-to-Panhandle approach (I started coloring it in from the bottom and worked by way up) and with as little Partisan Bias as possible. I reserved three Democratic Seats in the Orlando Area, two in the Tampa Bay Area, one in the Jacksonville Area, and eight in the Miami Area to get to 14 Democratic Districts.

My next map will be a Panhandle-to-South (so much for that lol) approach. It may look similar to this one but I'd like to try something new in the Miami area, maybe getting two different DeSantis Districts in the Miami Area.

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I have a few of nitpicks, because I'm a jerk:

No, I'd much rather hear feedback than nothing at all. Thank you for taking the time to look at the map!

-IMO Jacksonville is one of those occasions were a donut district is a decent choice. If you don't agree though, I'd suggest avoiding crossing the St. Johns River more than one in Duval County since that's a pretty major divide.

I'll try the donut district next time. I don't want to divide it by the St. Johns River though exactly because that's a light Republican gerrymander and removed any trace of the Majority Black District. I think Jacksonville deserves a district dominated by itself and generally shouldn't be separated.

-South Florida IMO is a little questionable--you can easily draw 4 Latino districts (majority CVAP) and 1 Black (majority CVAP) district there, but you only have 3 Latino district--don't think that passes muster.

👍 Understood, thank you.

-The 20th district is a little questionable for going between major pop. centers on both coasts.

I'm not sure what you mean by questionable. I quite like it that the rural areas of inland Southern Florida have their own district, and it was one of my main goals when creating the map. I've always thought they're quite culturally and economically distinct from the surrounding coastal urban areas in the Miami Metro and SW Florida and that they do deserve their own unified voice (rather than being split up and drowned out by the surrounding urban areas). I did need to add some of the suburbs in Lee County to make the population of the District viable, but as the population inland expands, eventually there'll be no need for that.

-The deviation is a little high

👍 Understood, thank you. I'll work on that next time by using the new block tools.

What is your preferred deviation, though?

I quite like your central florida though!

Is there a specific part you liked about it? I'd like to be able to take the good parts from this map and preserve them as I make newer maps.

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Anyone else find the precincts in Tampa really annoying to work with?

Yes, definitely. Every other precinct you color activates some more blocks on the opposite side of the county, and ironing out the exclaves takes ages when done by hand. Lee County has a similar problem in Ft. Myers and the surrounding areas.

It'll probably be fixed as Dave puts in the 2020 Election Data (which he is currently uploading for different states).


I created a map for Broward, Miami-Dade, and Monroe Counties that has 4 Majority-Latino and 1 Majority-Black Congressional Districts under CVAP (Link on Dave's Redistricting App):



All figures are from 2017 (or the 2019 5-Year ACS, which most accurately reflects 2017 figures)

Opinions on the map?

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I created a map for South Florida that has 4 Majority-Latino and 1 Majority-Black Congressional Districts under CVAP (Link on Dave's Redistricting App):



I plan to expand this later.


Opinions?

I like the clean districts. I generally don't really like having so much crossing between Miami-Dade and Broward but it works in context.
A question arises as to what happens with Collier but I assume the most logical course of action is simply splitting Lee in 2.
This arrangement also makes for an Okechobee district to be made.

Creating an Okeechobee-centered District is part of the plan in the first place so that works nicely.

I plan to split Lee and Collier both between the Okeechobee District (Lehigh Acres and the inland suburbs will go here) and a coastal District (which will include Cape Coral, Naples, possibly Ft. Myers) as of right now, but it may work out differently in the end.

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So what changes most now that we know they are only getting 28 seats?

It really depends which part of Florida underperformed the most relative to the state. We really don't know at this point. It could, for instance, be the Puerto Rican areas in the Orlando metro (Puerto Rico overperformed by about 100K so it'd even out nicely), or perhaps there's a smaller Cuban population than expected in Hialeah, West Miami-Dade, and the Tampa Bay Area. Maybe the retirees in the Villages and company aren't as numerous as expected (also would make sense because NY, NJ, IL all overperformed and that's where the retirees come from).

Personally, I think the last factor probably has the most to do with Florida's underperformance, so I think the proposed new district near the villages and Ocala which most people expected was going to form won't come into being. I could easily be wrong, though.

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So I was asking myself - how can you avoid a disrict going from Collier to Miami-Dade and nest 3 seats solely within Miami-Dade+Monroe, all while protecting Latino voting power?
In Miami-Dade, there are fajitas to avoid a 90% Latino CD being drawn and overconcentrating the Latino vote. To test this and make sure, I drew a "natural" arrangement with all of Monroe and then moving north from Homestead until I reached quota. After filling in 2 more CDs, my hypothesis was proven correct.
So I thought on how this could be avoided, and turns out it is possible by "cracking" the (relatively) less Latino areas in the southern parts of Miami-Dade and splitting NW Miami Dade into 2 districts. It looks a bit wonky but it does its job, with 3 districts that are 76%, 71%, and 76% respectively, according to 2019 total population figures. If CVAP is your preferred metric, they also perform - 71%, 68%, and 72% respectively. I tried to avoid municipal splits whenever feasible.
I also was able to preserve a black CD, drawn out of the rest of Miami-Dade and neighboring areas of Broward.

Interesting solution! I really like the idea.

This is the rest of the map.
Pasco+Pinellas is perfectly placed for exactly 2 districts, a black-plurality CD is drawn completely within Broward. A district was drawn wholely within Broward that to the greatest extent feasible avoided black precincts while being compact, to allow the creation of the aforementioned CD. A minority-influence CD is drawn in Palm Beach County. In Central Florida, FL-09 (renumbered as the 11th), retreats from Polk County and gains a substantial part of Orange, in turn pushing the 10th into Lake. Ocala and Gainesville are paired together to create a R-leaning but competitive CD in inland northern and north-central Florida. The current FL-05 is dismantled, replaced mainly by a strongly Dem-leaning all-Duval CD that voted for Gillium by 13, and a FL-02 that voted for DeSantis by 7. The rather awkward shape of the new FL-07 is due to the break-up of FL-05 as it is currently constituted in combination with the new Ocala-Gainesville CD.
Trump, Clinton, DeSantis, Gillium, Scott, and Nelson all won 14 seats under these boundaries in their 2016 and 2018 races.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/203ffc97-5f6f-4428-afc1-7421912332d1

Excellent job. Thank you for keeping the inland South counties together! I also must say I'm impressed that you got the mint-colored district, FL-23, near majority-Black! And thank you for not lumping Miramar in with Palm Beach! And I like a bunch of other stuff too, this map is awesome.

One thing I find interesting is that you pushed the red exurban Jacksonville district into the Deep South rather than going farther into St. Johns. Was that the last district you did (or among them)?

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Screw the Tampa precincts honestly.
I won't be making any more state maps for Florida until DRA fixes that issue, really, it's such a pain.

The last time I went through it took me over an hour to just get them right (and this is me going into the block tool to fix the contiguity of districts).

[_.]

-SNIP-

My method is to use area tool to mass-color precincts in a well selected area and then methodically split each precinct as needed. To save my time I always try to spend as little time as is feasible doing this.

I just found an even quicker solution, the municipality tool! It works perfectly, and cuts straight through those precincts.
I spent literally 5 minutes on the Tampa Bay Area this time around


By the way, here is my first pre-census data attempt at a fair 28-District map of Florida:

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.04%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.
It scores 84/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index and 76/100 on the Minority Representation index.
This map was made with a panhandle-to-South approach (I began at the panhandle then worked my way down).

The map above shows results from the 2018 Florida Gubernatorial election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 17R to 11D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 14R to 14D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 17R to 11D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 15R to 13D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 15R to 13D


I did many new things this time, such as keeping Lee County whole, managing to keep Volusia and Flagler whole and in the same district (as well as keeping Brevard whole), using a semi-donut configuration for Jacksonville, and fajita-ing all the way from Collier County to Martin County.

The most ugly part of my map, though, for certain has to be the Lake County-Northern Polk County district (between the Orlando and Tampa Bay metro areas). I'll need a new solution for that in the future, especially if I'm not gonna be splitting Sumter.


Any opinions or thoughts?

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I started making my second Florida map from the bottom-up, and I think I made a great combination for Southeast Florida. It's based on 2015 - 2019 ACS numbers, and has a population deviation of 0.01%!

I think I did particularly well with county splits (there's only one to accommodate a majority Black district) and compactness.

Unfortunately, minority representation has taken a hit (mainly because of Florida's districts being larger than anticipated, it only will have 28 seats instead of 29), but I did what I could here too. Three majority Hispanic, One plurality Hispanic (nearly), One plurality Black and one majority Black.

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Here's an overview (going South to North). It's a long read so I put it in a spoiler:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

FL-28 (light purplish, Monroe and Southern Miami-Dade)

Majority Hispanic District (63% of the population, 58% of the Voting Age population) which takes up Monroe County and Southern Miami-Dade.

The Electoral Winners in recent times for this district area:

Clinton 2016 by 22%
Murphy 2016 (the guy who ran against Rubio for U.S. Senate) by 7%
Gillum 2018 by 16%
Nelson 2018 by 17%

Probably for Biden in 2020 by 5 - 10% considering swings. It closely reflects Miami-Dade as a whole.

Nothing much more to say on this one really, except it's a very diverse area culturally. Geography though puts it together, and I'm real glad that I managed to avoid a fajita into Collier.


FL-27 (light green, West Miami-Dade)

90% Hispanic District (in both total population and voting age) which is chock-full of working-class immigrant Clinton-Trump voters. Rubio's bastion, and likely to be represented by Diaz-Balart. It's extremely Cuban and South American in nature, having Hialeah, Westchester, Doral, you know the places.

Historical Data:

Clinton 2016 by 3%
Rubio 2016 by 21%
DeSantis 2018 by 14%
Scott 2018 by 13%

Trump 2020 by at least 20%. Perhaps it could be more.

This district should be stable for the future as it is modestly growing, but its Cuban contingent is slowly losing ground to Venezuelans as Doral has begun to swell in population (fueled by immigration) and Hialeah and co. is stalling. Perhaps in the future, it could elect the United States' first Venezuelan-American representative.


FL-26 (dark blue, Northeast Miami-Dade and Southeast Broward)

56% Black District (in both total population and voting age). Sizable Hispanic minority which nevertheless is very liberal. It stretches from the Black areas of Miami all the way up into Eastern Miramar and Pembroke Pines.

Historical Data:

Clinton 2016 by 71%
Murphy 2016 by 62%
Gillum 2018 by 72%
Nelson 2018 by 71%

Biden 2020 by probably 60 - 70%. It showed a modest swing to Trump, just like most inner-city areas across the country

This place would vote for a donkey over a Republican if it could. The district, while likely being stable in 2020 is gonna face some problems though in the future as it's facing population loss and Black outmigration.


FL-25 (salmon, Northeast Coastal Miami-Dade)

Majority Hispanic District (71% of population, 65% of voting age). Sizable white minority. Probably the richest and wokest district I'll make in Florida. It stretches from Aventura down to Miami, and includes nearly the whole city. Parts of this district which are more working-class might be gentrified in coming decades.

Historical Data:

Clinton 2016 by 25%
Murphy 2016 by 6%
Gillum 2018 by 16%
Nelson 2018 by 17%

Biden 2020 by probably 10 - 15%. It showed a modest swing to Trump.

This district sees significant growth every year and the so-called Miami "tech boom" is happening in this area. One problem for it in the future is going to be sea-level rise, which this district will be bearing the brunt of.


FL-24 (purple, Western and Southeastern Broward)

40.1% Non-Hispanic White and 39.5% Hispanic by population as of 2017. The Hispanic minority, though, is fast-growing and I feel comfortable saying it'll be a plurality here by the 2020 census. This is the original place where WASP flight occurred to back during the original stages of Hispanic migration to Miami-Dade, but now, these WASPs are moving out. Sizable and fast-growing Asian minority of 6% (I say this unironically, 6% is large for Florida).

This is also the district I'd live in (probably represented by 🤮 Wasserman Schultz but at least it's compact).

Historical Data:

Clinton 2016 by 25%
Murphy 2016 by 18%
Gillum 2018 by 25%
Nelson 2018 by 27%

Biden 2020 by probably 15 - 20%. It showed a sizable swing to Trump.

This district is heavily college-educated and faces steady growth every year.


FL-23 (light mint, Northern Broward)

Black plurality (42% Black, 35% White) by total population but is White plurality by voting age population (44% White, 36% Black). Has a young and fast-growing Black population (in contrast to Miami-Dade's black district) and is on track to one day be Black-majority if things continue at this pace. It has Lauderhill, North Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, Coral Springs, which gives it a good mix and diversity.

It also lacks Hispanic people compared to the other districts (at only a 20% Hispanic proportion). This explains why it stayed relatively strong for Murphy in 2016.

Historical Data:

Clinton 2016 by 42%
Murphy 2016 by 40%
Gillum 2018 by 45%
Nelson 2018 by 46%

Biden 2020 by probably 40 - 45%. It showed a modest swing to Trump.

This district is facing steady population growth.

One thing I'd improve when I make this map again though is that I'd push down FL-25 farther South to the whiter woker coastal areas instead of into the largely Cuban and working-class Western Miami, which I feel would fit better culturally, economically, and politically in FL-27. FL-28 will have to do some shifting to achieve this but it'd be worth it.

Link to map on DRA

What do you all think? Anything else which could be improved?

[_.]

I tried my hand at my second fair 28-district map of Florida.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is less than 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

91/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
85/100 on the Compactness Index
55/100 on County Splitting
72/100 on the Minority Representation index
19/100 on Dave's competitiveness index (:/)

The map above shows results from the 2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 17R to 11D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 14R to 14D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 16R to 12D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 15R to 13D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 15R to 13D


This time I think I did alright, with Greater Miami, Greater Orlando, the East Coast, Jacksonville, the Panhandle, and the North Central part which I tried to fix from last time.

The Southwest and Tampa Bay is ugly though


Opinions?

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For fun, I also tried my hand at making a 45-district map of Florida, which is how many districts it'd have under the Cube Root Rule in the 2020 census.

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The Population Deviation is 0.06%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

94/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
74/100 on the Compactness Index
68/100 on County Splitting
76/100 on the Minority Representation index
27/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 28R to 17D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 24R to 21D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 26R to 19D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 23R to 22D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 23R to 22D


I won't pretend this one's much good but it was an interesting exercise.


Opinions?

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After seeing an absurdly illegal CD map done by a gunslinger on RRH, I posted the below:

Once the final census numbers are available, given that the law prohibits a map favoring one party over the other, my suggestion is to turn off the partisan numbers on the DRA, and then draw the cleanest map possible that minimizes chops and erosity while complying with the VRA (e.g., no minority packing), and when finished, save that map, duplicate it, and then turn on the partisan button to see with the partisan numbers, if you can Pub it up, while being able to defend it under the state law (e.g., there are two reasonable options in places, that are close to being in equipoise based on the non partisan merits, and you just happened to pick the “wrong” one from a partisan perspective). In the real world, when the lawsuit comes, the map drawers will be asked if they were aware of the partisan splits when they drew the map in the sense of having the partisan numbers in the DRA turned on. The “correct” answer will be no, the partisan button was turned off. If the answer is “yes” rather than “no,” the Pub mappers will be in some trouble right out of the box, and their credibility put into question. Each state has its own rules, and FL is not TX, where anything goes when it comes to state law. Just a suggestion.

Florida law:

“(a) No apportionment plan or individual district shall be drawn with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or an incumbent; and districts shall not be drawn with the intent or result of denying or abridging the equal opportunity of racial or language minorities to participate in the political process or to diminish their ability to elect representatives of their choice; and districts shall consist of contiguous territory.
(b) Unless compliance with the standards in this subsection conflicts with the standards in subsection 1(a) or with federal law, districts shall be as nearly equal in population as is practicable; districts shall be compact; and districts shall, where feasible, utilize existing political and geographical boundaries.”

Notice above that the partisan prong just uses the words “intent” while the minority prong uses “intent or result.” Notice further that “no partisan intent” trumps hewing to county and municipal lines and compactness. Keep that partisan button off! Your honor, I was just drawing a clean map, and had no idea what the partisan effect was. I am shocked, shocked I tell you, that it gave the Pubs everything not locked down by the VRA. That appears to be the result, but that was not my intent!

Relevant:

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I've got a question: Click poll link

Please discuss


Not making a new thread because this topic really isn't all that significant but I'm still curious

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Another question I've got: Click poll link

Please discuss


To me, I think the answer is having four VRA majority-Hispanic districts. Three being based in Miami-Dade County and one being based in the Orlando metro area (around Osceola County).

However, if the GOP gets to fajita-ing I can realistically see five VRA majority-Hispanic districts, four being based in Miami-Dade County.

Merging together SW Broward with a little bit of Northwest Dade gets you a Hispanic majority pretty quickly, so it seems quite realistic.

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First in a series of many Florida maps I will make to the Census Tract level

[_.]

Another question I've got: Click poll link

Please discuss


To me, I think the answer is having four VRA majority-Hispanic districts. Three being based in Miami-Dade County and one being based in the Orlando metro area (around Osceola County).

However, if the GOP gets to fajita-ing I can realistically see five VRA majority-Hispanic districts, four being based in Miami-Dade County.

Merging together SW Broward with a little bit of Northwest Dade gets you a Hispanic majority pretty quickly, so it seems quite realistic.

I wonder when Miami-Dade gets a 4th Latino CD, if at all.

Miami-Dade only has population for 4 districts before you leave the county and is already the base for an African-American district, so it seems unlikely it will be the base for 4 Hispanic CDs.

Oh I know. In essence I am asking "when does Miami-Dade get 5 CDs"?

Well, it's a long way off, that's for sure, most likely in 2040 or 2050.

In reality, it'd probably be even faster just to wait until the Black population declines enough (the NorthEast Miami-Dade Black neighborhoods and communities are shrinking fast, mainly moving to Broward) that they don't warrant their own community of interest.

This is realistic by 2030, but more likely in 2040.

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Wont Miami be underwater by 2050?

Aa for the city, pretty firmly no, even under the worst case scenarios. According to NASA, Miami Beach will see only 0.83 meters of sea level rise by 2100 in their medium scenario. Most of the city is well above that (the suburbs, though, not so much).

Parts of West Dade will see trouble starting around the 2040s, but it's nothing a little bit of infrastructure and ingenuity can't solve.
We must become Venice to survive.

And if it really gets bad, Florida will live on through the Orlando metro and Central Florida, which is well above sea level and wont be seeing any threat even with 10 meters of sea level rise.

Wont Miami be underwater by 2050?

they could learn from the Dutch on how to manage the oceans and keep some of the land

This unfortunately is not an option due to the local geology

The area will need to elevate itself by a massive amount. With a tax base of our size, it's definitely possible.
And it isn't as if we're gonna give up! Too much money at risk. 

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Map #2:

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Map #3 of Florida Census Tracts:

Voting Age Population by Race and Ethnicity:

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I haven't yet added a detailed legend to this one but it uses exactly the same colors as DRA's "All Groups" option does when put on 100% opacity. Go ahead and make your comparisons where you can.

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Map #4, Same as above but total population

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Interesting to compare with Map #3

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Surprises in the Census Data

Underperformance/Overperformance Map - Raw Numbers

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Underperformance/Overperformance Map - Percentage

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When you look at the Florida overperformance/underperformance maps above, one thing that may catch your eye is the heavy underperformances in Miami (-28,578) and Miramar (-6,590). These underperformances are so heavy, in fact, that Miami-Dade County outside of Miami overperformed by over 10,000, and Miramar was Broward County's greatest underperformer. (The counties as wholes did not perform so badly, barely being 10K off from the original projections)

Where did these underperformances come from? It's very easy to answer. The Black parts of these cities, East Miramar and Northern Miami (not North Miami, which also underperformed).

Miramar's population was previously estimated to be 141,000 in 2019, with 65,000 people who were African-American alone and 49,000 Hispanics (46% Black, 35% Hispanic).

The 2020 Census results show that Miramar's population is actually 135,000, with 57,000 people who were African-American alone and 55,000 Hispanics (42% Black, 41% Hispanic). The Non-Hispanic White population (mainly living in the West and Central parts of Miramar) completely evaporated, from being expected to number 18,000 to actually being 11,000.

In fact, East Miramar underperformed by 8,000 people, while Central Miramar and the heavily Hispanic West Miramar both overperformed (mainly due to Hispanics).

Similarly, in Miami, where the Black alone population was expected to be 79,000 (17% of the city), it actually turned out to be 57,000 (13% of the city).


You may be thinking, well it still won't be so hard to make a majority-Black district. Look at Miami Gardens, Opa-Locka, West Park, and Gladeview. They all overperformed. Why did they overperform, though? In each one of these cities, the Black population underperformed, but the Hispanic population overperformed enough that those cities as wholes all overperformed.

As an example, Miami Gardens, a "historically" (whatever that word means in South Florida) black suburb, was expected to have 78K Blacks and 29K Latinos. In reality, it had 70K Blacks and 37K Latinos.

The story is the same all throughout Northeast Miami-Dade and Southwest Broward, every city.


The new harsh truth for Frederica Wilson is that it is no longer possible to create a compact district in Miami-Dade and Broward where the population is majority-African-American by VAP. I tried, trust me.*

In fact, Wilson currently represents a plurality-Hispanic district by Voting-Age population (44.9% Hispanic to 43.6% Black), and where the population is only barely plurality Black (45.1% Black to 43.9% Hispanic).** This is opposed to earlier estimates where her district was thought to be upwards of 49% Black.


* Unless you want to go with this abomination which is only 51% Black (under the 2019 estimates it would've been 54% Black and also would've been 40K people bigger than your average district)

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The point still stands though, the 2019 ACS data projections made it very easy to draw a compact 56% Black VAP district in the area, and you could get it up to 60% if you wanted to get egregious. This is the case no longer.


** Yes, the Black population of FL-24 is younger than the Hispanic population. This is because the Hispanics who live in FL-24 disproportionately live in Central Miami and on the coast, and are very old and affluent compared to their counterparts across the rest of the county and the black populations of their district.


Interesting how much more intense than expected gentrification is.


Another thing important to note is that the Black areas of Northern Broward County and Jacksonville saw no such underperformance with their Black populations and proportions, with it getting even easier to draw more Black-heavy districts based in those areas.

I'm pretty confident in saying that two VAP Black districts based solely in Duval County and Northern Broward County will become necessities by 2030 if things continue at this rate.


It looks like TimTurner was onto something when he was talking about Miami-Dade getting a fourth Latino congressional seat

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I tried my hand at a fair congressional map of Florida using the 2020 census results.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects the 2020 Census.

82/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
80/100 on the Compactness Index
59/100 on County Splitting
76/100 on the Minority Representation index
26/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 17R to 11D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 14R to 14D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 16R to 12D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 15R to 13D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 15R to 13D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 15R to 13D


This map has three majority-Hispanic districts in Miami-Dade, as well as a fourth majority-Hispanic district in the Orlando metro (something that was impossible under the 2019 numbers, insane growth happens here every year).

It also has a 48% Black district in Miami-Dade, a 37% Black district in Broward, and a 35% Black district in Duval (which would've been unthinkable before the Jacksonville overperformance).


Opinions?

[_.]

I tried my hand at a hardline Republican gerrymander of Florida using the 2020 census results. If Republicans go all out, the map will likely look something like this (perhaps with an extra Democratic sink in Miami-Dade County).

It seems more likely that we see a 19R - 9D or 18R - 10D map instead, though.

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The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects the 2020 Census.

33/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
56/100 on the Compactness Index
43/100 on County Splitting
76/100 on the Minority Representation index
31/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 19R to 9D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 17R to 11D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 17R to 11D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 17R to 11D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 17R to 11D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 20R to 8D


This map has three majority-Hispanic districts in Miami-Dade, as well as a fourth majority-Hispanic district in the Orlando metro.

It also has a 50% Black district based in Miami-Dade, a 50% Black district based in North Broward and Palm Beach. Neither of these districts are very compact but this is how it is now.

It seems very likely in the future that it will be easier to make a compact North Broward Black VRA district (where the Black population is expanding) than it will be in Miami-Dade (because in Miami and the Southern reaches of the Black areas, the population is shrinking fast, and in the Northern reaches, such as East Miramar and Miami Gardens, the Black population is growing sluggishly, not enough to balance out).

The Jacksonville metro area has been split straight down the middle as evenly as possible, and both seats there voted for Trump by 13.1% in the 2020 presidential election. The Duval overperformance has lessened the margins from the previously expected Trump+17% and Trump+16% numbers, but it is still probably safe for the Republicans until 2024 or 2026 (Jacksonville's dynamic is similar to Atlanta's, demographically and politically). It will be interesting to see how long it'll take for the dummymander to fall.

Also, this is already when taking advantage of Union, Bradford, and Baker Counties to the West. Remove those and you can only manage Trump+11% districts.

By 2030 it will be mandatory for a Black-plurality seat solely to be placed in Jacksonville if things continue at this rate. Currently, a 37% Black seat can be made there, but Florida's districts are much larger than average due to it narrowly missing out on a 29th seat this apportionment.

The Republican seats are thin in Miami-Dade, but a fajita into Collier could theoretically make them redder. If Cubans shift even a smidge leftwards, the house of cards will fall but these are the risks you have to take to get a 20 - 8 map.

The Seminole-Lake-Volusia district may run into trouble, but it will happen later than you think, especially because Seminole's demographic transformation is being balanced out by high growth in North Brevard, Eastern Lake County, and the Deltona suburbs.

The Southeast Hillsborough-North Manatee County district has a similar dynamic, except it is trending much faster towards Democrats and is currently somewhat more Republican.


Opinions?

[_.]

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Would that comply with the VRA?  So we are looking at the GOP likely gaining 2 seats?  How much would that risk being a dummymander in Miami though.  A lot of those low propensity Trump voters can't be counted on to turn out in 2022 right?

These are the factors the GOP must consider when they attempt their gerrymander. It remains to be seen how Miami Cubans trend in the future, and such a map runs the risk of overextending, but these are simply the risks one takes when making a gerrymander.

Other places the GOP may get too cocky when making a 20-8 map are Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and the Orlando metro, considering trends.

The current North Florida Democratic district isn't VRA protected, but it will be interesting to see its future considering the growing Black population and the general bluing of the area (similar to Atlanta).

I did cover all this stuff and went into more detail in the paragraphs written below the map.

We don't know how it will go yet but this 20-8 configuration is really the highest they could go if they went all out (though they may be able to make their margins a little bit higher in the Miami districts, if they incorporate parts of Collier County).