2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[Mr.Phips]

Biden+7 is not black performing?

I would guess not in midterms due to massive AA turnout dropoff.

Whose fault is it if they choose not to turn out?  The idea that you need to bend over backwards to create an AA percentage as high as possible due to them having lower turnout has always maddened me.  Turnout is a choice that voters themselves control.  A 51% AA district should be enough.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Biden+7 is not black performing?

I would guess not in midterms due to massive AA turnout dropoff.

I don't agree with such a stringent test.
But under such a test:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0afa8729-2f7c-4ae3-ac57-56bfcbddf956
This has two double-digit Biden win seats.

[Epaminondas]

Whose fault is it if they choose not to turn out?

Yes, it can be partly blamed on political disengagement, but that's fickle. Another factor, which can be controlled, is the actions of the electoral office of Alabama: dearth of voting centers in the Black Belt, campaigns of intimidation, high stress on the predetermined electoral outcomes.

There's a reason the VRA was passed in the first place - political suppression of Blacks in the Bible belt -, and a reason it's still feared by GOP legislatures to this day.

[Sol]

If you don't like that particular cut of Mobile, you can do this, which IMO is worse but does avoid bay-hopping.

[Oryxslayer]

Like I said above, the simple solution if you you care about this instance of water connectivity - cause lets be honest, Mobile is geographically isolated in its corner comparable to VA's eastern shore - you use I-10.

[Nyvin]

This seems pretty good, if county splits are a thing the court cares about -

https://davesredistricting.org/join/40ec8a56-d78e-488f-a896-6fcdb1395002



Districts 4 and 5 still untouched

Each district afforded only 1 county split each

Both districts 2 and 7 are over 50% black in total population and VAP, and easily performing

Still keeps 3 and 6 mostly intact except some shifting south and eastwards

Barry Moore actually wouldn't be totally doomed in this, since he can easily primary Jerry Carl in AL-1, which has a lot of Moore's old territory.

The only thing I don't like is not having any road connection between Mobile County and the rest of AL-1, but sacrifices have to be made I guess.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1669510021619634178?s=20

[100% pro-life no matter what]

One thing that I'm watching for is the split in Jefferson County.  I'm imagining that the state GOP will want to keep places like Mountain Brook and Vestavia Hills in Republican districts because a lot of GOP donors live there.  It's similar to how, when TN-9 had to expand due to population loss in Downtown Memphis, the TNGOP attached more downscale exurbs onto it to leave the wealthy suburban areas in a red district.

[Oryxslayer]

One thing that I'm watching for is the split in Jefferson County.  I'm imagining that the state GOP will want to keep places like Mountain Brook and Vestavia Hills in Republican districts because a lot of GOP donors live there.  It's similar to how, when TN-9 had to expand due to population loss in Downtown Memphis, the TNGOP attached more downscale exurbs onto it to leave the wealthy suburban areas in a red district.

This is known, which is why the diagonal maps going through Tuscaloosa to 2-4 Belt counties seem so common and accepted. What's less clear - though I expect - is a cut of Montgomery county and city for the same reasons.

[Torie]

Biden+7 is not black performing?

I would guess not in midterms due to massive AA turnout dropoff.

I don't agree with such a stringent test.
But under such a test:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0afa8729-2f7c-4ae3-ac57-56bfcbddf956
This has two double-digit Biden win seats.

That is a very creative map.

[Gass3268]

One thing that I'm watching for is the split in Jefferson County.  I'm imagining that the state GOP will want to keep places like Mountain Brook and Vestavia Hills in Republican districts because a lot of GOP donors live there.  It's similar to how, when TN-9 had to expand due to population loss in Downtown Memphis, the TNGOP attached more downscale exurbs onto it to leave the wealthy suburban areas in a red district.

This is known, which is why the diagonal maps going through Tuscaloosa to 2-4 Belt counties seem so common and accepted. What's less clear - though I expect - is a cut of Montgomery county and city for the same reasons.

Yeah, I’ve read they want the University of Alabama and the state capitol in Republican districts.

[Roll Roons]

One thing that I'm watching for is the split in Jefferson County.  I'm imagining that the state GOP will want to keep places like Mountain Brook and Vestavia Hills in Republican districts because a lot of GOP donors live there.  It's similar to how, when TN-9 had to expand due to population loss in Downtown Memphis, the TNGOP attached more downscale exurbs onto it to leave the wealthy suburban areas in a red district.

This is known, which is why the diagonal maps going through Tuscaloosa to 2-4 Belt counties seem so common and accepted. What's less clear - though I expect - is a cut of Montgomery county and city for the same reasons.

Yeah, I’ve read they want the University of Alabama and the state capitol in Republican districts.

If that's the case, why is Bama's campus in Sewell's district now?

[Minnesota Mike]

MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) — Alabama will have to move quickly to comply with a court order to draw new congressional districts for the 2024 elections, and judges indicated Friday that they will give legislators until July 21 to adopt a new map.

https://wbhm.org/2023/alabama-must-move-quickly-to-draw-new-congressional-districts/amp/

[ProgressiveModerate]

Will Republicans still try and be sneaky and try to include either super low turnout black communities/prisons with super red and high turnout white suburbs so one of the black seats is in practice a swing seat, or do they just do a straightforward 5-2 map to avoid further risk of legal action?

[Zaybay]

Will Republicans still try and be sneaky and try to include either super low turnout black communities/prisons with super red and high turnout white suburbs so one of the black seats is in practice a swing seat, or do they just do a straightforward 5-2 map to avoid further risk of legal action?

I will refer you to this post:

https://twitter.com/tekken_guy/status/1667326977882177541

It’s possible to make a Black-majority LA-05 as close as Biden+4. Cassidy won this seat and someone like Letlow can pull a Gerald Greene and hold it as long as she wants.

Maps like this are put up a lot by DRA users on twitter and atlas on how to "cheat" the VRA ruling, but pretty much never pass through the court and become reality.

The whole point of a VRA section 2 district is that the voters of the minority race can reliably elect the candidate of their choice, especially if the opposition bloc votes against the minority race, which is definitely the case in Louisiana and Alabama.

The lawyers know this, the courts know this, the politicians know this, it just won't happen.

[Oryxslayer]

Special remapping session will begin in exactly 1 month. Given that leaves only a few days before July 21, we will probably have an agreed map beforehand and the vote will be perfunctory.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Will Republicans still try and be sneaky and try to include either super low turnout black communities/prisons with super red and high turnout white suburbs so one of the black seats is in practice a swing seat, or do they just do a straightforward 5-2 map to avoid further risk of legal action?

I will refer you to this post:

https://twitter.com/tekken_guy/status/1667326977882177541
It’s possible to make a Black-majority LA-05 as close as Biden+4. Cassidy won this seat and someone like Letlow can pull a Gerald Greene and hold it as long as she wants.

Maps like this are put up a lot by DRA users on twitter and atlas on how to "cheat" the VRA ruling, but pretty much never pass through the court and become reality.

The whole point of a VRA section 2 district is that the voters of the minority race can reliably elect the candidate of their choice, especially if the opposition bloc votes against the minority race, which is definitely the case in Louisiana and Alabama.

The lawyers know this, the courts know this, the politicians know this, it just won't happen.

Thomas v. Bryant is the most relevant precedent, which struck down Mississippi State Senate district 22. It was 51% BVAP but consistently elected a Republican, namely Appropriations committee chairman Buck Clarke. It achieved this by combining high turnout white Jackson exurbs with the low turnout Delta. In spite of what gop twitter might think, context matters more than gerrymandered BVAP and it was struck down by the district courts and by the 5th circuit. (rather than stay and fight, Buck Clarke would run for Treasurer, and lose the primary 38-62 lol.)

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Will Republicans still try and be sneaky and try to include either super low turnout black communities/prisons with super red and high turnout white suburbs so one of the black seats is in practice a swing seat, or do they just do a straightforward 5-2 map to avoid further risk of legal action?

I’ve said this before, if it feels like cheating, it’s probably cheating. Republicans *could* make a majority or plurality black seat in rural North Carolina or South Georgia that voted Republican, but they don’t cause they know it’ll be strict down.

[Epaminondas]

MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) — Alabama will have to move quickly to comply with a court order to draw new congressional districts for the 2024 elections, and judges indicated Friday that they will give legislators until July 21 to adopt a new map.

https://wbhm.org/2023/alabama-must-move-quickly-to-draw-new-congressional-districts/amp/

What if they don't produce anything or slow-walk it past the deadline? The Ohio GOP stole at least a seat that way.

[Oryxslayer]

MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) — Alabama will have to move quickly to comply with a court order to draw new congressional districts for the 2024 elections, and judges indicated Friday that they will give legislators until July 21 to adopt a new map.

https://wbhm.org/2023/alabama-must-move-quickly-to-draw-new-congressional-districts/amp/

What if they don't produce anything or slow-walk it past the deadline? The Ohio GOP stole at least a seat that way.

Then a special master is appointed. Ohio GOP found themselves in a unique position because they were before a state court, concerning state laws that prevent the court from taking authority, and they ran out of time - none of which are present.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1671280785238683648?s=20

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1671654708249755649

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1672424009177133056?s=20

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1672424009177133056?s=20

I was correct, they favor a map with no changes to districts 4 and 5.

[politicallefty]

I know it's not a new change, but what prompted them to push AL-04 to the Tennessee state line? I liked the old (pre-2023) AL-05.

I think that proposal would look a lot better if AL-03 and AL-06 swapped some territory.

That AL-02 looks like nearly a bare minimum effort. They can do better than that. If it's least change, I get it. Even so, that AL-06 is ugly.