2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[Sol]

This is my take on what a fair map would be.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/90d473e9-c12d-4317-a891-fe50e3d4b4af

The black belt district is 56% black, and the JeffCo-Tuscaloosa district is 52% white and 42% black, but JeffCo whites are less racially polarized and are more liberal than other AL white voters.

As far as a fair map goes, I don't know if it makes much since to dip into Mobile instead of Birmingham, particularly since the rest of Mobile has iffy connections to the other parts of AL-01.

[Sol]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::93720128-bfca-4c99-a1f3-9b2fbe84604a

My take on the likeliest 2021 map.  Roby gets the chop, and Rogers inherits an unsightly Gadsden-to-Dothan district.  Since a Dixiecrat revival is now an impossibility, AL Republicans can sleep well keeping NWAL whole, as well.  Sewell's district is 61% Black by 2018 population and while her district sheds some D precincts around Birmingham due to expansion in the Black Belt, the JeffCo districts are split between Aderholt and Palmer to keep them both safe.

Hmmm... going by the 2017 and 2018 results it seems likely Madison County will eventually flip with the concentration of postgrads living there and the surrounding counties are also accumulating more D votes, though they were near unanimous R before.  I doubt that would be enough to flip the northern district anytime soon, but who knows?

That area is one where there are countervailing trends; Huntsville's growth is offset by the decline of the Tennessee Valley blue dogs, who voted D surprisingly late.

[Sol]

Yeah, unfortunately the result of Alabama losing a seat is that splitting Birmingham becomes required in any fair map. Splitting Mobile is obviously way worse due to the water connection issues.

[Sol]

Yeah, unfortunately the result of Alabama losing a seat is that splitting Birmingham becomes required in any fair map. Splitting Mobile is obviously way worse due to the water connection issues.

Well by fair as in VRA compliant map you mean right?

Yeah. Though also fair just in the general sense as well.

[Sol]

It's not so much the partisan balance part which is important to me; I think the issue is more that in a society as racially polarized as Alabama, making sure that the 25% or so of Black Alabamians have representation is important, particularly since there's a pretty strong history and present of racist oppression. Drawing a 4R 2D map where the two Democratic districts are potentially winnable by Republicans runs the risk of shutting Black Alabamians out of government.

Ofc the ideal electoral solution IMO is PR, but since that isn't too plausible rn I think VRA districts are necessary.

[Sol]

You can drop the bulk of Tuscaloosa there, and gobble up more of the Black Belt/Montgomery instead. Tuscaloosa is still reliably Republican.

[Sol]

AL-07 still isn't safe. With DC statehood, #435 gets cut

If it happens after apportionment, they'd wait till 2030.

[Sol]

I actually have a similar map to you Kwabbit--here's what I have:



link

I'd rather split just Jackson county along the Tennessee river, but the precincts don't perfectly follow the river and are too big.

I put Autauga and Elmore in the 3rd district to keep the Montgomery metro together, but I could trade territory to make it more Black if there's a concern about it potentially flipping (since it's not super Democratic)

[Sol]

It's a bit tough to do that without taking out Autauga/Elmore--here's a pass which keeps the bulk of the latter while still keeping Tuscaloosa together.



link

Not sure if that 4th district is actually preferable to one which does a wraparound, which might be better CoI?

[Sol]

To be honest, I would argue that under a strict reading of the "compactness" criteria; Alabama should not have a black district mandated. If you need to split Mobile or split Birmingham to get such a district, that is not a compact district

You don't need to split Mobile or Birmingham.

[Sol]

These districts are literally majority Black on CVAP without splitting Mobile or Birmingham:

7 districts:




6 districts:

[Sol]

These districts are literally majority Black on CVAP without splitting Mobile or Birmingham:

7 districts:

6 districts:

Cook PVI? Is it more likely that Alabama gets 6 or 7?

I didn't save the 7-district Black majority seat, but the 6-district seat is 55D-44R on the 2012-2016 average. I imagine the former is higher.

Don't know wrt: your second question.

[Sol]

These districts are literally majority Black on CVAP without splitting Mobile or Birmingham:

7 districts:

6 districts:

Cook PVI? Is it more likely that Alabama gets 6 or 7?

I didn't save the 7-district Black majority seat, but the 6-district seat is 55D-44R on the 2012-2016 average. I imagine the former is higher.

Don't know wrt: your second question.

Isn’t your 7 district map borderline illegal? Is it more likely the state stays at 7 or loses a seat?

Literally how?

[Sol]

Splitting Birmingham or Mobile is needed for a 55% BCVAP district.

Why does it have to hit that threshold? There are plenty of districts which are required under the VRA which don't have 55% BCVAP--and considering racial polarization in Alabama a district which is majority Black by CVAP will easily be able to elect the Black candidate of choice.

[Sol]

link

[Sol]

Let’s say by some miracle this decision stood. Would such a rational be applied to other southern high African American states with GOP gerrymanders? How many seats could that net Dems?

At most, 2. LA and NC (and the NC map is already in front of courts).

I’m still gonna insist it’ll have some affect on SC. At the very least a new minority influence seat could very easily be argued for, if not two majority minority seats outright

Idk about that--spent some of last night playing around with 2 minority influence districts in SC and it's frankly pretty challenging to do. Would be interesting in seeing your map, but my suspicion is that only 1 district meets the Gingles test.

[Sol]

Can someone post an actual map that has two 50% BVAP CD's with what they think minimizes erosity?

Oryxslayer's map is just upthread! Yellow is genuinely quite compact, and Green is crummy but not any worse than the current 2nd, and as he says it's probably legal to do a district based in New Orleans which is only plurality on VAP.

[Sol]

Yeah cutting Montgomery is pretty useful in that it lets you have a pretty clean southern border for the southermost Black influence district.

[Sol]

I assume the configuration will be Birmingham to Mobile and a Montgomery-based black belt seat. Should Sewell move back home to Selma then Woodfin probably has the other seat should he want it. If a white person ends up in the western seat, I could maybe see Walt Maddox going for it too. If Sewell stays in Birmingham, Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed could go for it, I suppose.

Birmingham is a little too populous for this; population math tends to push towards one Montgomery-Mobile seat and one Birmingham seat with a slice of the Black Belt.

You can include Selma in the Birmingham seat, actually. Even though Republicans are drawing the map I wouldn't be surprised if they threw Sewell a bone and did that, which would suggest that the rep for the southern seat would likely come from Montgomery or Mobile.

[Sol]

Is there a reason that South-Western sliver near Mobile cannot be included in Sewell's district?

Discontinuous districts look gerrymandered.

It's extremely white and very populous; I doubt the district passes VRA muster if it's included.

In my map I split precincts so it had a road connection with the rest of AL-01, but yeah, it's pretty crummy and the one bad part of this decision.

[Sol]

If you don't like that particular cut of Mobile, you can do this, which IMO is worse but does avoid bay-hopping.

[Sol]

"Opportunity" presumably is short for "opportunity for lawsuits."

[Sol]

It seems like the theme of several of these maps is a desire to preserve some version of AL-02, though quite a few of these seem to be legally questionable.

[Sol]

To be honest, I thought Alabama was more likely to propose a map where at least they could configure the other 5 districts how they wanted, but this is just laughable. Not even one of those Con Twitter maps which have a Trump+2 50.1% Black district. Gonna get laughed out of court

Unlike Louisiana, there aren't that many ways to draw two Black-influence seats, so maybe they feel like it's better to get slapped down by the courts than to irritate influential Republicans in Mobile and the Wiregrass.

[Sol]

Sadly almost everywhere this happens and states surrender their first attempt back to the courts. A real weakness of the American system comparatively is parties inability in many different capacities to sit down with a member and say "You are the weakest link" and sacrifice or chastise them to better the whole. In this situation that would be ensuring their membership get their ideal seats while observing the order, rather than letting the dice roll on potential incumbent pairings or loss of desirable features like airports or wealthy donor neighborhoods.

But that's why special masters exist.

I mean, we'll probably get a better map out of it.