2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[MT Treasurer]

Also right before the midterms seems like a bad timing for a favorable ruling to the gop since it doesn’t really affect much on their side but gives Dems a great attack against them to motivate voters.

Indeed - if there’s anything that can motivate the average, not-already-super-involved-or-partisan voter to head to the polls and vote for Democrats, it’s Alabama's congressional map, especially amid soaring inflation, gas prices, rent, and crime rates.

Amazing how one can spin everything as bad news for the GOP, no matter how ludicrous the reasoning.

[Greedo punched first]

What would the optics of the state being represented by seven white Republicans be like?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also right before the midterms seems like a bad timing for a favorable ruling to the gop since it doesn’t really affect much on their side but gives Dems a great attack against them to motivate voters.

Indeed - if there’s anything that can motivate the average, not-already-super-involved-or-partisan voter to head to the polls and vote for Democrats, it’s Alabama's congressional map, especially amid soaring inflation, gas prices, rent, and crime rates.

Amazing how one can spin everything as bad news for the GOP, no matter how ludicrous the reasoning.

It would persuade very few voters but could give a slight boost to Dems turnout, especially college students and younger folks.

[MT Treasurer]

Also right before the midterms seems like a bad timing for a favorable ruling to the gop since it doesn’t really affect much on their side but gives Dems a great attack against them to motivate voters.

Indeed - if there’s anything that can motivate the average, not-already-super-involved-or-partisan voter to head to the polls and vote for Democrats, it’s Alabama's congressional map, especially amid soaring inflation, gas prices, rent, and crime rates.

Amazing how one can spin everything as bad news for the GOP, no matter how ludicrous the reasoning.

It would persuade very few voters but could give a slight boost to Dems turnout, especially college students and younger folks.

Which - even if true - will surely be the saving grace for Democratic candidates running in Alabama this year.

[Greedo punched first]

Will Terri Sewell be doomed?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also right before the midterms seems like a bad timing for a favorable ruling to the gop since it doesn’t really affect much on their side but gives Dems a great attack against them to motivate voters.

Indeed - if there’s anything that can motivate the average, not-already-super-involved-or-partisan voter to head to the polls and vote for Democrats, it’s Alabama's congressional map, especially amid soaring inflation, gas prices, rent, and crime rates.

Amazing how one can spin everything as bad news for the GOP, no matter how ludicrous the reasoning.

It would persuade very few voters but could give a slight boost to Dems turnout, especially college students and younger folks.

Which - even if true - will surely be the saving grace for Democratic candidates running in Alabama this year.

Georgia says hello

[Dr. MB]

Will Terri Sewell be doomed?

She's beyond doomed.

[Dr. MB]

What would the optics of the state being represented by seven white Republicans be like?

Pretty on-brand for Alabama

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Tierney_Megan/status/1666812415848382473

[patzer]

I suppose the big question is whether they go for including Mobile in the southern district or not. Something vaguely like these options are probably the two main options.

[Gass3268]

Crazy to read some of the doom posts in here given this decision.

[Oryxslayer]

I suppose the big question is whether they go for including Mobile in the southern district or not. Something vaguely like these options are probably the two main options.

SNIP

Here are some of the plaintiff maps, the Mobile link is all but ordered:



Additionally, the State BOE map - with 8 districts - will likely be another guide when it comes to this process:

[Oryxslayer]

Here's a few styles of map I created ~1 year age. Yes, I deem it likely Montgomery will be cut so as to at the minimum remove the wealthy White donor neighborhoods, the capital, and the universities - all things the GOP would like to keep in their possession. The 7th or Birmingham seat need not be over 50% BVAP to easier perform - I don't think it is in every plaintiff map  - but it'll probably come close at minimum given how things are done in the south.

[Sol]

Yeah cutting Montgomery is pretty useful in that it lets you have a pretty clean southern border for the southermost Black influence district.

[Brittain33]

Pour one out for the teens on ET drawing fantasy maps of the South with like 5 total African-American Democrats in anticipation of this ruling.

[Sol]

I assume the configuration will be Birmingham to Mobile and a Montgomery-based black belt seat. Should Sewell move back home to Selma then Woodfin probably has the other seat should he want it. If a white person ends up in the western seat, I could maybe see Walt Maddox going for it too. If Sewell stays in Birmingham, Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed could go for it, I suppose.

Birmingham is a little too populous for this; population math tends to push towards one Montgomery-Mobile seat and one Birmingham seat with a slice of the Black Belt.

You can include Selma in the Birmingham seat, actually. Even though Republicans are drawing the map I wouldn't be surprised if they threw Sewell a bone and did that, which would suggest that the rep for the southern seat would likely come from Montgomery or Mobile.

[Epaminondas]

Is there a reason that South-Western sliver near Mobile cannot be included in Sewell's district?

Discontinuous districts look gerrymandered.

[Nyvin]

I think the court will leave AL-4 and AL-5 untouched, and just do minimal changes to AL-3 and AL-6.   All the real changes will be between 1, 2, and 7 in the south.

Here's what I came up with, somewhat of a least change map I guess (or as close to one as possible) -



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c3aa1155-40cc-4845-9a2a-30678c997a05

[Sol]

Is there a reason that South-Western sliver near Mobile cannot be included in Sewell's district?

Discontinuous districts look gerrymandered.

It's extremely white and very populous; I doubt the district passes VRA muster if it's included.

In my map I split precincts so it had a road connection with the rest of AL-01, but yeah, it's pretty crummy and the one bad part of this decision.

[Skill and Chance]

I think the court will leave AL-4 and AL-5 untouched, and just do minimal changes to AL-3 and AL-6.   All the real changes will be between 1, 2, and 7 in the south.

Here's what I came up with, somewhat of a least change map I guess (or as close to one as possible) -



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c3aa1155-40cc-4845-9a2a-30678c997a05

Not obviously less compact than the current map!  SCOTUS clearly made the right call here.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there a reason that South-Western sliver near Mobile cannot be included in Sewell's district?

Discontinuous districts look gerrymandered.

It's extremely white and very populous; I doubt the district passes VRA muster if it's included.

In my map I split precincts so it had a road connection with the rest of AL-01, but yeah, it's pretty crummy and the one bad part of this decision.

I mean if the people who end up drawing the map really care about this instance of road connectivity between Mobile and Baldwin counties in potential AL-01s, they'll cut a few precincts to follow I-10 through Mobile City and across the Bay.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is there a reason that South-Western sliver near Mobile cannot be included in Sewell's district?

Discontinuous districts look gerrymandered.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/912c7ee5-e1d0-4919-a375-032204dfa828
Thoughts on this?

[Epaminondas]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/912c7ee5-e1d0-4919-a375-032204dfa828
Thoughts on this?

Much nicer, but I see the dilemma now, it's only Biden+5.
Impossible to get 2 performing Black districts while keeping Mobile county whole.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/912c7ee5-e1d0-4919-a375-032204dfa828
Thoughts on this?

Much nicer, but I see the dilemma now, it's only Biden+5.
Impossible to get 2 performing Black districts while keeping Mobile county whole.

Biden+7 is not black performing?

[Epaminondas]

Biden+7 is not black performing?

I would guess not in midterms due to massive AA turnout dropoff.