Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Stuart98]

A modest proposal:



President 2020:


The 1st fails in Pres 2016 (Trump +0.2) and AG 2018 (Harold +0.1). The 14th fails in Senate 2016 (Kirk +3.6)

[StateBoiler]

Reportedly Kinzinger's district is getting axed.

[BoiseBoy]

Reportedly Kinzinger's district is getting axed.

Sad, but not unexpected.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Reportedly Kinzinger's district is getting axed.

This was always gonna happen and even if it didn’t, he’d be DOA in the primary

[Oryxslayer]

All I'll say right now is that Champaign and Urbana under the census numbers are now way too large for just a single state house district for the two of them. If the state legislature doesn't separate the two between 103 and 104 during the special session on Tuesday then they are throwing away a Safe Democratic district in favor of a swingy one.

[Gass3268]

All I'll say right now is that Champaign and Urbana under the census numbers are now way too large for just a single state house district for the two of them. If the state legislature doesn't separate the two between 103 and 104 during the special session on Tuesday then they are throwing away a Safe Democratic district in favor of a swingy one.

They didn't do it.

Updates here:

https://twitter.com/MikeMiletichTV/status/1432403605726900228?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

The most notable changes from the ACS maps I spot are: the Woodstock House seat is probably a Biden District now, and there's now a Kewanee-Outer Peoria seat that will be less R than it's surroundings.  

[Drew]

I’m looking through these proposed downstate House districts in Gass’s link above, and it appears that IL legislative Dems are “fixing” a lot of the current failed “cracking” attempts which resulted in two Republicans.  This is particularly true in a lot of the college towns.

Examples:

-DeKalb, which they lumped in with the surprisingly Democratic LaSalle-Peru area.
-Bloomington and Normal, which are currently in separate districts but would be consolidated in the new map.
-Carbondale, which as a whole would be together with Cairo (heavily African American) and Marion (a relatively large city in a pretty rural area).
-They’re also attempting to create a blue district from Macomb to the Quad Cities.

[Oryxslayer]

I’m looking through these proposed downstate House districts in Gass’s link above, and it appears that IL legislative Dems are “fixing” a lot of the current failed “cracking” attempts which resulted in two Republicans.  This is particularly true in a lot of the college towns.

Examples:

-DeKalb, which they lumped in with the surprisingly Democratic LaSalle-Peru area.
-Bloomington and Normal, which are currently in separate districts but would be consolidated in the new map.
-Carbondale, which as a whole would be together with Cairo (heavily African American) and Marion (a relatively large city in a pretty rural area).
-They’re also attempting to create a blue district from Macomb to the Quad Cities.

A lot of those examples can be explained by one of three things: Dems in 2010 could or did hold the cracked districts but the alignment changed, two Illinois house districts must be nested within 1 senate district, and Madigan in 2010 cracked or packed University areas to prevent reformists from getting elected and building a force to oppose him. The Cairo situation was drawn in 2010 cause Dems held seats down there, DeKalb was linked because they have an incumbent in the Peru area who no longer Reps a blue district and Madigan previous sank the university, Bloomington could have its own seat to undo to university crack but is linked with Peoria to shore up the senate seat, and the Quad cities extension is to make the secondary seat attached to Moline bluer so to draw out the unexpected Republican incumbent.

The real places where the GOP incumbents were drawn out were in the suburbs, since Democrats improved there compared to 2010, and there is no Madigan to desire complacent Republicans get elected rather than reformist Democrats.

[Alcibiades]

I’m looking through these proposed downstate House districts in Gass’s link above, and it appears that IL legislative Dems are “fixing” a lot of the current failed “cracking” attempts which resulted in two Republicans.  This is particularly true in a lot of the college towns.

Examples:

-DeKalb, which they lumped in with the surprisingly Democratic LaSalle-Peru area.
-Bloomington and Normal, which are currently in separate districts but would be consolidated in the new map.
-Carbondale, which as a whole would be together with Cairo (heavily African American) and Marion (a relatively large city in a pretty rural area).
-They’re also attempting to create a blue district from Macomb to the Quad Cities.

Did Madigan do this last time because he had a grudge against college students/to dilute the influence of anti-machine voters in primaries?

[Donerail]

I’m looking through these proposed downstate House districts in Gass’s link above, and it appears that IL legislative Dems are “fixing” a lot of the current failed “cracking” attempts which resulted in two Republicans.  This is particularly true in a lot of the college towns.

Examples:

-DeKalb, which they lumped in with the surprisingly Democratic LaSalle-Peru area.
-Bloomington and Normal, which are currently in separate districts but would be consolidated in the new map.
-Carbondale, which as a whole would be together with Cairo (heavily African American) and Marion (a relatively large city in a pretty rural area).
-They’re also attempting to create a blue district from Macomb to the Quad Cities.

Did Madigan do this last time because he had a grudge against college students/to dilute the influence of anti-machine voters in primaries?

Not really, just seeking to maximize his majority — party used to do a whole lot better downstate, and there's a lot of seats you can hold while losing 10-20 in the rurals that you can't if you're losing by 40.

[Thunder98]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1432752524117872649?s=20

[Thunder98]

I finally was able to draw a 14-3 Dem Gerrymander of Illinois! My map has Kinzinger district's get axed and the Chicago suburb dem incumbents are more shored up. Rodney Davis and Mary Miller have to fight it out in the GOP Primary, Darin LaHood hometown is entirely in Underwood's district, so he would have to move out of the city to run in the R sink of this new 17th district. This is like the messiest map ever. lol



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6731fdd6-a076-4b2a-8ed1-b3e5b6d150c6

[Mr. Illini]

It is a little crazy that Dems didn't decide to split Champaign and Urbana. In the districts below, the Champaign/western district has held up in all elections except for AG 2018 and Senate 2016. Note that the GOP AG candidate in 2018 was from Champaign.

If they went this route, you'd still get one Dem seat out of the area, with a high likelihood of getting two.

[Non Swing Voter]

Since everyone keeps drawing 14-3 gerrymanders, I guess it's safe to assume there is no practical way to draw a 15-2 gerrymander?

[Brittain33]

Since everyone keeps drawing 14-3 gerrymanders, I guess it's safe to assume there is no practical way to draw a 15-2 gerrymander?

If it were possible, today’s IL-12 and -13 wouldn’t have Republican reps.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Since everyone keeps drawing 14-3 gerrymanders, I guess it's safe to assume there is no practical way to draw a 15-2 gerrymander?

Look at the top post on the page

[Gracile]

Since everyone keeps drawing 14-3 gerrymanders, I guess it's safe to assume there is no practical way to draw a 15-2 gerrymander?

Look at the top post on the page

I don't think that 1st district is sustainable for Democrats throughout the decade (it's arguably more of a 14-1-2 than 15-2), and could easily flip in 2022. These other 14-3 maps would be much safer bets if the party is thinking in the long term.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Since everyone keeps drawing 14-3 gerrymanders, I guess it's safe to assume there is no practical way to draw a 15-2 gerrymander?

Look at the top post on the page

I don't think that 1st district is sustainable for Democrats throughout the decade (it's arguably more of a 14-1-2 than 15-2), and could easily flip in 2022. These other 14-3 maps would be much safer bets if the party is thinking in the long term.

Sure, but we’d at least have a shot at flipping it and 14-1-2 > 14-3

[Gracile]

Since everyone keeps drawing 14-3 gerrymanders, I guess it's safe to assume there is no practical way to draw a 15-2 gerrymander?

Look at the top post on the page

I don't think that 1st district is sustainable for Democrats throughout the decade (it's arguably more of a 14-1-2 than 15-2), and could easily flip in 2022. These other 14-3 maps would be much safer bets if the party is thinking in the long term.

Sure, but we’d at least have a shot at flipping it and 14-1-2 > 14-3

My issue is more with the configurations (I'd much rather have a downstate district that connects all of the central cities with the Metro East as in Wasserman's map - as I think that would be more efficient in terms of holding up against trends), and the fact that it's still effectively going to be a 14-3 map in the end.

[Stuart98]

Since everyone keeps drawing 14-3 gerrymanders, I guess it's safe to assume there is no practical way to draw a 15-2 gerrymander?

Look at the top post on the page

I don't think that 1st district is sustainable for Democrats throughout the decade (it's arguably more of a 14-1-2 than 15-2), and could easily flip in 2022. These other 14-3 maps would be much safer bets if the party is thinking in the long term.

Sure, but we’d at least have a shot at flipping it and 14-1-2 > 14-3

My issue is more with the configurations (I'd much rather have a downstate district that connects all of the central cities with the Metro East as in Wasserman's map - as I think that would be more efficient in terms of holding up against trends), and the fact that it's still effectively going to be a 14-3 map in the end.

It trended left from 2016 to 2020 and countervailing trends should keep it competitive for perpetuity; writing it off is a mistake imo.

A safer 15-2 is possible if you're willing to go for even thinner, longer snakes; OBD posted one in Lokcord a few hours after I posted mine last week. There's practical limits to how stringy a district can get and I think OBD's map would be a bridge too far even for the IL Dems.

[Telesquare]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PostOpinions/status/1433158578311995398

[GALeftist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PostOpinions/status/1433158578311995398

That's crazy. If only there was some way the Republican Party could easily do away with gerrymandering on the federal level for good. Sadly, though, no such option exists for them

[Nyvin]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PostOpinions/status/1433158578311995398

So tell Senate Republicans in DC to pass redistricting reform nationally.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I finally was able to draw a 14-3 Dem Gerrymander of Illinois! My map has Kinzinger district's get axed and the Chicago suburb dem incumbents are more shored up. Rodney Davis and Mary Miller have to fight it out in the GOP Primary, Darin LaHood hometown is entirely in Underwood's district, so he would have to move out of the city to run in the R sink of this new 17th district. This is like the messiest map ever. lol



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6731fdd6-a076-4b2a-8ed1-b3e5b6d150c6

Brad Schneider would not be happy with this