Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Surprised no one has started this yet.

Green Line can rest assured that Marie Newman is likely a goner in 2022. IL-3 should be very easy to convert into a hispanic-majority seat. It's a wonder why two hispanic seats weren't drawn in 2011 when it could have easily been done then.

Even with drawing three black seats and two hispanic seats in a 17-seat map, it's very easy to shore up Lauren Underwood and Sean Casten as well. My new IL-14 I drew in Dave's Redistricting App takes Rockford out of IL-17 (I'll get to that later) and includes Rockford, all of Boone County, all of DeKalb County, the northern half of Kane County, and the more Democratic southern half of McHenry County (including Algonquin and Woodstock). Obama got 55.5% in 2008. Just eye-balling it, Clinton won it by at least 5%. IL-10 takes up the rest of the more Republican part of McHenry County and most of Lake County. IL-6 becomes entirely based within DuPage County and Clinton won it by about 12%. Bill Foster's IL-11 becomes less blue and includes Naperville (in DuPage County), the southern half of Kane County, and all of Kendall, Grundy, and LaSalle Counties. Clinton won this by about 10%.

Cheri Bustos's IL-17 turns into a Mississippi River-based seat and includes all of Carroll County through Jersey counties inclusive, and the most Democratic parts of St. Clair County and Madison County. In addition, to get population balance, it reaches into Freeport and Galesburg, both Democratic cities. Obama won this 58.5-40%, but it was obviously a lot closer in 2016, and Trump might have won it even still. This would be the toughest Democratic seat to retain given the trends here, and Cheri Bustos would have a big fight on her hands in the first tough year for Democrats.

The new IL-12 is a new Clinton seat in central Illinois that includes the cities of Springfield, Urbana-Champaign, Decatur, Bloomington-Normal, and Peoria. Obama won it by 13% in 2008, and with the trends slightly counteracting each other in this seat, Clinton still won it by about 6% it looks like.

Essentially though, it's impossible to have two safe Democratic seats in Downstate Illinois unless you get really crazy with tentacles. The best you can do is a Likely D seat in the central part of the state and a tossup Mississippi River seat.

If anyone could show me how to upload a map to this site, I'd be happy to show it.

Essentially this turns into a map with 10 Safe Democratic seats (1-11), 2 Likely D seats (12 and 14), and one tossup seat (IL-17).

[Green Line]

They should draw a new hispanic majority seat for Fran Hurley or Kelly Burke on the southwest side.  I'm confident either would be elected.  Just cut out the Will County portions and include a bit more of Worth and Bremen Township, along with enough of southwest Chicago to make it majority hispanic.

[Oryxslayer]

Four problems with Chicago hispanics:

1) There were not enough of them for two districts in 2010 when the state had 18 seats. The only way to get it to work was to head out into the suburb and tentacle to Aurora and stuff.

2) Undervoting in the primary. 50% or even 55% is not enough for a performing seat. One needs to go higher. Undervoting actually helps the AAs, since the three AA seats are destined to drop to 48-46% AA by VAP, so sticking undervoting Hispanics along with the current GOP whites helps keep AAs >50% in the dem primary.

3) Chuy García is from the south part of IL04, whereas the seat was previously repp'ed by the northern side of the earmuff. Chuy is going to demand more of the Hispanics in the south side and drop off more of the north, which helps other Reps when it comes to partisan moves in the suburbs.

4) Madigan's personal base is in the 3rd, and includes some Hispanics. He will decide who represents him personally, and that may not be a minority Rep.

[Tintrlvr]

Four problems with Chicago hispanics:

1) There were not enough of them for two districts in 2010 when the state had 18 seats. The only way to get it to work was to head out into the suburb and tentacle to Aurora and stuff.

2) Undervoting in the primary. 50% or even 55% is not enough for a performing seat. One needs to go higher. Undervoting actually helps the AAs, since the three AA seats are destined to drop to 48-46% AA by VAP, so sticking undervoting Hispanics along with the current GOP whites helps keep AAs >50% in the dem primary.

3) Chuy García is from the south part of IL04, whereas the seat was previously repp'ed by the northern side of the earmuff. Chuy is going to demand more of the Hispanics in the south side and drop off more of the north, which helps other Reps when it comes to partisan moves in the suburbs.

4) Madigan's personal base is in the 3rd, and includes some Hispanics. He will decide who represents him personally, and that may not be a minority Rep.

It is, however, entirely possible to draw a performing Hispanic district solely on the South side, even with only 17 districts. I drew one in 5 minutes that is 63% Hispanic, 25% white, 6% black, 5% Asian. You might see the map done this way, then redistributing the North side Hispanics among other districts (or concentrating them in one district that isn't necessarily performing but is at least an opportunity seat).

Edit: Doing this results in a relatively neat seat on the North side that is 47% Hispanic, 42% white, 5% Asian, 3% black. So not a performing Hispanic district but a solid opportunity seat. From a fairness perspective, this seems like the right approach.

[Zaybay]

Its very likely that IL-03 is cut due Newman's victory, but the reconfiguration likely wouldnt create another Hispanic-majority seat. An additional Hispanic seat doesnt appear to be physically feasible, especially with the depopulation of the African American seats. I spent a rather long time on DRA trying to get two majority seats, but the best I could do was two plurality seats, which I can bet Chuy and the other IL representatives would not be happy with.

What I could see is the seat divided among a multitude of representatives, with Chuy, Foster, Quigley and Casten taking a slice.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Four problems with Chicago hispanics:

1) There were not enough of them for two districts in 2010 when the state had 18 seats. The only way to get it to work was to head out into the suburb and tentacle to Aurora and stuff.

2) Undervoting in the primary. 50% or even 55% is not enough for a performing seat. One needs to go higher. Undervoting actually helps the AAs, since the three AA seats are destined to drop to 48-46% AA by VAP, so sticking undervoting Hispanics along with the current GOP whites helps keep AAs >50% in the dem primary.

3) Chuy García is from the south part of IL04, whereas the seat was previously repp'ed by the northern side of the earmuff. Chuy is going to demand more of the Hispanics in the south side and drop off more of the north, which helps other Reps when it comes to partisan moves in the suburbs.

4) Madigan's personal base is in the 3rd, and includes some Hispanics. He will decide who represents him personally, and that may not be a minority Rep.

It is definitely possible. The map I drew literally has two seats over 50% Hispanic

[Green Line]

Four problems with Chicago hispanics:

1) There were not enough of them for two districts in 2010 when the state had 18 seats. The only way to get it to work was to head out into the suburb and tentacle to Aurora and stuff.

2) Undervoting in the primary. 50% or even 55% is not enough for a performing seat. One needs to go higher. Undervoting actually helps the AAs, since the three AA seats are destined to drop to 48-46% AA by VAP, so sticking undervoting Hispanics along with the current GOP whites helps keep AAs >50% in the dem primary.

3) Chuy García is from the south part of IL04, whereas the seat was previously repp'ed by the northern side of the earmuff. Chuy is going to demand more of the Hispanics in the south side and drop off more of the north, which helps other Reps when it comes to partisan moves in the suburbs.

4) Madigan's personal base is in the 3rd, and includes some Hispanics. He will decide who represents him personally, and that may not be a minority Rep.

It is definitely possible. The map I drew literally has two seats over 50% Hispanic

But I can't see it.  I'll show you how to draw it so the southern one can be won by an Evergreen Park democrat.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Four problems with Chicago hispanics:

1) There were not enough of them for two districts in 2010 when the state had 18 seats. The only way to get it to work was to head out into the suburb and tentacle to Aurora and stuff.

2) Undervoting in the primary. 50% or even 55% is not enough for a performing seat. One needs to go higher. Undervoting actually helps the AAs, since the three AA seats are destined to drop to 48-46% AA by VAP, so sticking undervoting Hispanics along with the current GOP whites helps keep AAs >50% in the dem primary.

3) Chuy García is from the south part of IL04, whereas the seat was previously repp'ed by the northern side of the earmuff. Chuy is going to demand more of the Hispanics in the south side and drop off more of the north, which helps other Reps when it comes to partisan moves in the suburbs.

4) Madigan's personal base is in the 3rd, and includes some Hispanics. He will decide who represents him personally, and that may not be a minority Rep.

It is definitely possible. The map I drew literally has two seats over 50% Hispanic

But I can't see it.  I'll show you how to draw it so the southern one can be won by an Evergreen Park democrat.

How do I upload a picture on this damn site

[EastAnglianLefty]

If you drew it in DRA, the easiest way is to click the 'Share' link in the app, copy the link it gives you and paste it into here.

I've also been playing around with Illinois. I haven't got a complete map, but it looks like it's theoretically possible with 2016 numbers to get 3 seats that are 50%+ black. That would actually be an improvement for IL-7, which according to Wikipedia is currently only 46% black.

There's definitely sufficient Hispanics for a Southside Mexican-American district for Garcia, but I'm not sure this does screw Newman. I managed to draw an effective enough district for her in the whiter bits of Southwest Cook and the north-west of Will County. It's a bit more competitive (52 Clinton - 42 Trump) but still ought to be securely Democratic and looks to be trending leftwards.

That then leaves the question of what to do with the Hispanic population on the Northside. A VRA district isn't possible, but if you're willing to dilute IL-7 a bit then you could probably reduce the white share of the Northside seat enough to increase the chances of it performing. However, if you are trying to create a new Hispanic seat there, that means one of the existing white Democratic representatives is out of a job. I presume the machine will want to protect Quigley, but I guess if Schakowsky is willing to stand down then it might be possible to merge the eastern ends of IL-5 and IL-9 to make room for the new Hispanic seat?

For Bustos, a lot depends upon how Democratic performance holds up in northwest Illinois. Most of the counties were Democratic by a healthy margin in 2012, so if the numbers rebound from 2016 then she ought to be able to cope with a reasonably compact Rock Island-Peoria district.

Where is Underwood's base? It looks like she and Foster both live in Napierville, which may make drawing IL-14 a bit more awkward.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Thanks i’ll share it when I get home from work. As for Underwood not being in IL-14, I guess you could draw another tentacle into Naperville easily in my map, but it’s not really necessary. I don’t think she’d Be treated as a carpetbagger if she decided to run in the seat I have her in anyway.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, no democratic incumbent gets sacrificed under a Madigan map. If IL04 get reoriented all the way to the south, the north will not be used to make a second performing seat. It will be used to shore up IL08/IL06, who then could drop some blue suburbs to help shore up IL14, etc. keeping everyone's base in their seat is perhaps the most important factor. Newman is the only one who could get cut out of her district, since in 2022 she would be a very short term incumbent, but her replacement seat would still be blue. It's just moire likely that the redder suburbs in the SW now end up in the AA seats. There will still be 12ish seats around Chicago, the cut is goinna be forced on the present IL12/13 to help make a downstate democrat.

[lfromnj]

Pretty damn ugly and uses up rockford but more or less the maximum one can get for downstate.

The New Il 12th/13th is now D+5.59 and 52.4 C and 40.4 Trump, its about +15 obama so almost no trend here.


The new Il 17ths PVI barely changes and only goes upto 3.47 but taking in Bloomington Normal makes it way bluer in 2016 but also slightly more red in 2012. It is about Obama +12 and Clinton 49.8 and Trump 42.5.

Overall probably too ugly and Underwood might need Rockford but Bustos gets 1st preference. Anyway these 2 districts both minimize 2016 trends downstate while maximizing how Democrat they get.

[Oryxslayer]

This is essentially what would happen if the mappers have a desire to strand Newman:

- Chinatown goes into the 5th if possible, the 7th if not.
- The 4th eats up all available southern Hispanics.
- The ethnic whites get carved up between the five neighboring seats, with the four minority seats taking the Lions share of the intolerable Republicans.
- The old 3rd, now rebranded the new 4th, gets resurrected in the NW side of the city. It would have a good number of Hispanics, but it would be Safer D than the present 3rd and majority white. It's purpose would be to help carve up DuPage so that the 5th/8th/9th/10th can eat the GOP parts of Lake and McHenry.

Remember, Madigan will not remove a blue seat unless it is absolutely necessary. The seat getting lost is from parts of 12/13, that is inevitable.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Is there any reason to believe Madigan would particularly want to take revenge on Newman? He backed Lipinski, but it's not like Newman explicitly ran against Madigan or like Madigan has any objection to working with relatively liberal politicians.

On the other hand, Schakowsky is going to be 78 by election day 2022. I don't think it's terribly unlikely she chooses to stand down anyway, which makes creating an opportunity district on the Northside easy to do.

[Sol]

If Newman is the rep who gets the last scraps, and if there's a desire to draw a second Latino district, why not keep the earmuffs and give Newman a plurality Latino district, with Chuy Garcia keeping as many SW side Latinos as possible?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Is there any reason to believe Madigan would particularly want to take revenge on Newman? He backed Lipinski, but it's not like Newman explicitly ran against Madigan or like Madigan has any objection to working with relatively liberal politicians.

(Image cred: Madigan circulator(?))

The thing about Chicago is that all politics are hyper-local. Madigan does not particularly care about what people on the North Shore get up to or whatever kind of progressive freaks they promote, so long as they can be reliably defeated when it comes to the important things in life (witness the political disappearance of Scott Drury, the only Democratic state rep to vote against Madigan for Speaker, as well as the utter failure of the Dan Biss 4 Gov campaign). But having an independent in Congress representing the 13th Ward?? Not acceptable!

Yes, but that shows Madigan campaigned against Newman. It doesn't suggest Newman made opposing Madigan an important part of her campaign (talking about defeating 'the machine' is pretty generic.) The machine doesn't bear grudges when it's not worthwhile - Rush challenged Daley in the mayoral election, but that hasn't harmed Rush's relationship with the machine since, because it hasn't been worth expending political capital trying to do it.

Trying to get revenge on Newman just seems like a waste of time when you can just give her a district consisting of areas outside Cook and the bits of Cook where the machine has least reach, then forget about her.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0ed2e9ca-8400-4799-9a61-ed14bdfd5fd3

Obviously I need to clean up my 1 & 2, but this is the overall concept of 14/17 Democrat seats.

As you can see, very easy to get two hispanic seats in Cook County in a 17-seat map. It'll probably be even easier when the new Census numbers come out since I imagine hispanic numbers have gone up.

Districts 1 and 2 will be slightly under 50% black, but still easily enough for a black Democrat to win a primary if there isn't a clown car vs  single white candidate.

[Oryxslayer]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0ed2e9ca-8400-4799-9a61-ed14bdfd5fd3

Obviously I need to clean up my 1 & 2, but this is the overall concept of 14/17 Democrat seats

Nobody would dare propose your version of Bustos's seat...it not only voted for Trump by 3% AND has a lower CPVI that the present seat meaning Romney also was competitive here. She's getting some of the central cities.

You destroy one of the AA seats. This needs to be amended.

Way too many dems are left on the table in the city. Your 5 & 9 need to be unpacked, and every suburban seat needs more dems.

This is before we start talking about how everyone seems to be drawn out of their seat in the city, or has lost their main base of support.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0ed2e9ca-8400-4799-9a61-ed14bdfd5fd3

Obviously I need to clean up my 1 & 2, but this is the overall concept of 14/17 Democrat seats

Nobody would dare propose your version of Bustos's seat...it not only voted for Trump by 3% AND has a lower CPVI that the present seat meaning Romney also was competitive here. She's getting some of the central cities.

You destroy one of the AA seats. This needs to be amended.

Way too many dems are left on the table in the city. Your 5 & 9 need to be unpacked, and every suburban seat needs more dems.

This is before we start talking about how everyone seems to be drawn out of their seat in the city, or has lost their main base of support.

I said my Cook County seats need cleaned up, but the suburban Democrats are more than fine in my map. Bill Foster and Sean Casten would not lose barring a landslide of epic proportions, and even then, they probably win. I guess if you put Rockford in the 17th, then the 14th will have to pick up a new source for a Democratic base somewhere, like in Lake County maybe, but on the whole, I think this is a very defensible map.

Bustos's seat is going once the first wave hits unless you draw something egregious like lfromnj drew. Madigan has the balls to do something like that I guess, but the Democrats who want to unilaterally disarm their map-drawing power will probably make a fuss.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@Green Line: Chuy would have nothing to worry about in this map. Hispanics outnumber whites by 57-26 and that's using ten year old numbers.

[Green Line]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0ed2e9ca-8400-4799-9a61-ed14bdfd5fd3

Obviously I need to clean up my 1 & 2, but this is the overall concept of 14/17 Democrat seats.

As you can see, very easy to get two hispanic seats in Cook County in a 17-seat map. It'll probably be even easier when the new Census numbers come out since I imagine hispanic numbers have gone up.

Districts 1 and 2 will be slightly under 50% black, but still easily enough for a black Democrat to win a primary if there isn't a clown car vs  single white candidate.

The third district would have a majority white electorate, and it wouldn't even be close.  I love it because it would be the perfect seat for a Madigan ally like Fran Hurley or Kelly Burke to run it, but I don't think that was your intention.

[Green Line]

@Green Line: Chuy would have nothing to worry about in this map. Hispanics outnumber whites by 57-26 and that's using ten year old numbers.

Why do the numbers say 48 hispanic, 41 white?  What am I misreading.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@Green Line: Chuy would have nothing to worry about in this map. Hispanics outnumber whites by 57-26 and that's using ten year old numbers.

Why do the numbers say 48 hispanic, 41 white?  What am I misreading.

That's the new district 3. District 4 (Garcia's) is 57-26

[Green Line]

@Green Line: Chuy would have nothing to worry about in this map. Hispanics outnumber whites by 57-26 and that's using ten year old numbers.

Why do the numbers say 48 hispanic, 41 white?  What am I misreading.

That's the new district 3. District 4 (Garcia's) is 57-26

I don't know exactly where Chuy lives, but you drew his south side Mexican base into the new 3rd.

Even if Chuy did run in the 4th, the point about the 3rd stands.  It would be highly unlikely to be won by a hispanic democrat.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@Green Line: Chuy would have nothing to worry about in this map. Hispanics outnumber whites by 57-26 and that's using ten year old numbers.

Why do the numbers say 48 hispanic, 41 white?  What am I misreading.

That's the new district 3. District 4 (Garcia's) is 57-26

I don't know exactly where Chuy lives, but you drew his south side Mexican base into the new 3rd.

Even if Chuy did run in the 4th, the point about the 3rd stands.  It would be highly unlikely to be won by a hispanic democrat.

Oh well. Minority opportunity districts are just that: opportunities. If they can't take advantage of that, then that's not the map-makers problem.