Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Gass3268]

Yeah, the more you look that this map the more dummymander potential it has.

[OBD]

Beautiful map! A hearty thank you to the great state of Illinois!

Still room for improvement. Let’s get those light blue seats at least into that delicious medium blue shade.

[It’s so Joever]

I like the spirit but not the actual map. At least it is not as terrible as VA or CO (and soon CA)

[Mr. Illini]

Seems like Dems were just as aggressive downstate as expected but less aggressive in Chicagoland. It is badly gerrymandered, but you could produce a more compact map that still shores up Underwood and Newman better than this one does.

[Spectator]

Yeah, the more you look that this map the more dummymander potential it has.

Hopefully this isn’t the final map. All the Democratic seats should be at least Biden by double digits. It’s not that hard to draw. Missed opportunities to make IL-03, IL-17, and IL-14 bluer

[lfromnj]

Yeah, the more you look that this map the more dummymander potential it has.

Hopefully this isn’t the final map. All the Democratic seats should be at least Biden by double digits. It’s not that hard to draw. Missed opportunities to make IL-03, IL-17, and IL-14 bluer

Newman's is only +6 and swung R
Bustos is +8

[lfromnj]

I like the spirit but not the actual map. At least it is not as terrible as VA or CO (and soon CA)

Chill about CA, if you saw the LULAC and CLLARO stuff from CO you know whats going to happen. CO only failed because the Republicans were actual Republicans and one of the Indies was probably an actual Indy (Lori Schell)

[Sestak]

Dave Wasserman now claiming this map will go 10-7. The spin to claim this is a bad map for Dems is insane.

[Stuart98]

Bad map, didn't eliminate Bost and they didn't even make all the seats double digit Biden seats.

The downstate IL seats look like double digit Biden seats. What are you thinking of?

Please see the first post of page 13.

[Sestak]

Yeah, the more you look that this map the more dummymander potential it has.

What?

One or two seats flopping does not make it a “dummymander” since it’s still better than they would have done without gerrymandering. As long as Democrats don’t fall below 12 seats (and they shouldn’t on this map) it’s not a dummymander.

[MT Treasurer]

I feel like vomiting.

How do you think Dems feel when looking at the NC maps Republicans look likely to draw?

You would be making the same argument if it was just MO Republicans who had any power or desire to gerrymander, and of course you know that as well as I do. Only the most gullible people actually buy into the "we’re only doing this because Republicans are even worse" or "we’re only doing this because Republicans don’t support 'independent' commissions [which are stacked with Democratic tie-breakers/members]" we-don’t-want-to-unilaterally-surrender shtick.

That said, Republicans absolutely deserve this if they’re unwilling or too incompetent to go nuclear in their states (IN would have been a good start even if it wouldn’t have been nearly enough to make up for the slaughter in CA/MD/IL/NJ/etc.). Let Darwinism reign.

[Mr. Illini]

I feel like vomiting.

How do you think Dems feel when looking at the NC maps Republicans look likely to draw?

You would be making the same argument if it was just MO Republicans who had any power or desire to gerrymander, and of course you know that as well as I do. Only the most gullible people actually buy into the "we’re only doing this because Republicans are even worse" or "we’re only doing this because Republicans don’t support 'independent' commissions [which are stacked with Democratic tie-breakers/members]" we-don’t-want-to-unilaterally-surrender shtick.

That said, Republicans absolutely deserve this if they’re unwilling or too incompetent to go nuclear in their states (IN would have been a good start even if it wouldn’t have been nearly enough to make up for the slaughter in CA/MD/IL/NJ/etc.). Let Darwinism reign.

Imagine believing this when Dems literally have a bill ready in Congress to abolish gerrymandering. Constitutional or not, the Democratic Party is indeed in favor of non-partisan gerrymandering. And, until that happens nationally, more astute state parties like Illinois and New York will continue to gerrymander so as not to completely cede control of Congress to Republicans.

You would really like a world where all Democratic states have commissions and Republican states gerrymander to sh*t, though, right?

[Devils30]

Seems like Dems were just as aggressive downstate as expected but less aggressive in Chicagoland. It is badly gerrymandered, but you could produce a more compact map that still shores up Underwood and Newman better than this one does.

Kinzinger would beat Newman in a Biden +6 seat...if he survives primary. Huge if but he would have significant crossover appeal while Newman will have plenty of problems. Dems would be wise to preempt problems and recruit a primary challenger (not named Lipinski).

[Gracile]

Newman got a pretty crappy district. Wonder if they want Lipinski to come back?

I feel that Newman's demand for the mappers was to remove the Hispanic parts of her seat, since those were the areas that backed Lipinski in the primaries. Which they did, but didn't get give her some more white Liberal suburbs from the seats to her north. Maybe she'll demand revisions after seeing the overall topline.

That's not entirely true. If you compare '18 to '20 primaries she clearly made big inroads with Latino and Asian communities in Chicago, and I'm sure she wouldn't have much of a problem winning over those voters in a future primary. She's also keeping several of Lipinski's best areas (like Mount Greenwood which could have creatively been drawn into one of the other Chicago districts). Honestly, I would be pretty disappointed in that district if I was her.

[The Free North]

Ugly gerrymander. Not in terms of the political ramifications but in terms of the districts themselves. Border gore to the moon.

[lfromnj]

Newman got a pretty crappy district. Wonder if they want Lipinski to come back?

I feel that Newman's demand for the mappers was to remove the Hispanic parts of her seat, since those were the areas that backed Lipinski in the primaries. Which they did, but didn't get give her some more white Liberal suburbs from the seats to her north. Maybe she'll demand revisions after seeing the overall topline.

That's not entirely true. If you compare '18 to '20 primaries she clearly made big inroads with Latino and Asian communities in Chicago, and I'm sure she wouldn't have much of a problem winning over those voters in a future primary. She's also keeping several of Lipinski's best areas (like Mount Greenwood which could have creatively been drawn into one of the other Chicago districts). Honestly, I would be pretty disappointed in that district if I was her.

Almost seems like Cawthorn's 11th to Wautaga.

[Schiff for Senate]

I feel like vomiting.

How do you think Dems feel when looking at the NC maps Republicans look likely to draw?

So true. I'm very glad to see Democrats are finally fighting fire with fire. The reasons the GOP opposes things like the For the People Act is because they have much more to lose than the Democrats since they have way more gerrymanders, so Democrats need to go hardball. I can't wait to see NY's maps. Look, in an ideal world, all 435 districts would be drawn by independent commission(s) that are nonpartisan. Since the GOP doesn't want that to happen there's absolutely no reason the Democrats should either hand over power to commissions or draw fair maps. The map in CO, for instance, would be great (though I think it objectively favourss the GOP too much; I feel like a 5-3 Democratic map is fairest...it's possible for there to be a 4-4 map in a Biden+13 state, which makes me question the 'independent' commission that drew this) IF there were no gerrymandering. But the GOP will be pulling sickening gerrymanders in NC and beyond, so Democrats need to fight fire with fire. They gave up the gold mine of CA which could have given them several new seats, but even in IL and NY they have some opportunities to go on the offensive, and fortunately, they are taking them. (Related to this, though, how does NY have an independent commission if Democrats are able to gerrymander the state so much?)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I F[INKS]ING LOVE IT.

It puts areas west of Rockford in the same vote sink as areas south of Springfield!

I DON'T WORSHIP A CONCEPT, I FOLLOW J.B.

[LabourJersey]

Seems like Dems were just as aggressive downstate as expected but less aggressive in Chicagoland. It is badly gerrymandered, but you could produce a more compact map that still shores up Underwood and Newman better than this one does.

Kinzinger would beat Newman in a Biden +6 seat...if he survives primary. Huge if but he would have significant crossover appeal while Newman will have plenty of problems. Dems would be wise to preempt problems and recruit a primary challenger (not named Lipinski).

Could Kinzinger win any GOP primary at this point?

[Schiff for Senate]

Seems like Dems were just as aggressive downstate as expected but less aggressive in Chicagoland. It is badly gerrymandered, but you could produce a more compact map that still shores up Underwood and Newman better than this one does.

Kinzinger would beat Newman in a Biden +6 seat...if he survives primary. Huge if but he would have significant crossover appeal while Newman will have plenty of problems. Dems would be wise to preempt problems and recruit a primary challenger (not named Lipinski).

I really hope this is the case, though I'm not sure if it is. It might well be, though I don't think the Illinois Democrats will be taking any chances and risking a 13-4 map when a 14-3 map is very possible.

[lfromnj]

I F[INKS]ING LOVE IT.

It puts areas west of Rockford in the same vote sink as areas south of Springfield!

I DON'T WORSHIP A CONCEPT, I FOLLOW J.B.

I mean I think that part is really for primary reasons? I guess IL D's would prefer to have Kinzinger/Davis over other R's. Maybe Pritzker is a bit worried about Davis for some reason so he gave him a seat he would probably win in the primary? Along with that maybe Lahood has some friends in the legislature as his sink stays similar as possible instead of taking the North IL parts

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I F[INKS]ING LOVE IT.

It puts areas west of Rockford in the same vote sink as areas south of Springfield!

I DON'T WORSHIP A CONCEPT, I FOLLOW J.B.

I mean I think that part is really for primary reasons? I guess IL D's would prefer to have Kinzinger/Davis over other R's. Maybe Pritzker is a bit worried about Davis for some reason so he gave him a seat he would probably win in the primary? Along with that maybe Lahood has some friends in the legislature as his sink stays similar as possible instead of taking the North IL parts

Kinzinger's isn't winning any primary. It's clearly just to avoid those areas being split into two R seats so they're merged into one.

[Schiff for Senate]

Now NY and MD

This!

[Thunder98]

I feel like vomiting.

How do you think Dems feel when looking at the NC maps Republicans look likely to draw?

Why do you have a Blue avatar again? lmao

I expect NY and MD to be just brutal for the GOP as well.

[Skunk]

Seems like Dems were just as aggressive downstate as expected but less aggressive in Chicagoland. It is badly gerrymandered, but you could produce a more compact map that still shores up Underwood and Newman better than this one does.

Kinzinger would beat Newman in a Biden +6 seat...if he survives primary. Huge if but he would have significant crossover appeal while Newman will have plenty of problems. Dems would be wise to preempt problems and recruit a primary challenger (not named Lipinski).

I don't deny that Kinzinger would have crossover appeal in this district but I don't see why Newman in particular would have problems? She's slightly to the left of the average Democrat, sure, but in 2020 she actually overperformed Biden by a tiny amount while most Congressional Democrats ran a couple of points behind him.